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The Big secret to trading success

  • #161
  • Apr 27, 2016 2:04pm Apr 27, 2016 2:04pm
Quoting DenForex
{quote} If I understand correctly, and as seen in the chart, you use the figures on the market quite competently. In this case, you are displaying a rectangle (buy box) with the release of figures on an upward trend. For me it's interesting stuff, because I'm fond of figures and trade on momentum. With the same success can be distinguished figure of a triangle as a signal to pulse movement. I also noticed that you are using a reversal candlestick pattern "spike". This is also a strong signal to trade the reversal of market movement. This...
Hi Denforex. I take it by figures, you mean patterns, as in triangles and pennants, if so, yes, they are important, though often I'm not conscious of them, even though they are there. I think this happens when you've stared at charts as long as I have.

Yes, candlestick formations are very important for me, as they are usually the final signal I have for pulling the trigger on a trade.
  • #162
  • Apr 28, 2016 1:33am Apr 28, 2016 1:33am
I suggest to analyze the recent events. Recently there was a big jump for the JPY. Fundamental news from the Bank of Japan. And rates were not measurable and JPY sharply increased. I'll look at USD / JPY.
So, the news made the schedule sharply change the direction and the price on the chart has fallen.
Thus, we see the pulse movement, which is the cause of fundamental news. But we can look at the chart in terms of technical analysis. We have the top level of resistance 111,845. Also, there is a level of support 110,588. When the price touched 111,845, we could predict the decrease to the level 110,588. But it's minimal decrease.
At the same time, it is necessary to set a pending order below the level of 110,588 to capture the possible continuation of the movement after hitting 110,588. Thus, we have two entry points. Out of the market - price support 109.368 (the beginning of the growing momentum.)

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More, we can see a pattern "bat". It gives a signal to decrease, which confirms the analysis of the levels.

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  • #163
  • Apr 28, 2016 6:58am Apr 28, 2016 6:58am
Quoting DenForex
I suggest to analyze the recent events. Recently there was a big jump for the JPY. Fundamental news from the Bank of Japan. And rates were not measurable and JPY sharply increased. I'll look at USD / JPY. So, the news made the schedule sharply change the direction and the price on the chart has fallen. Thus, we see the pulse movement, which is the cause of fundamental news. But we can look at the chart in terms of technical analysis. We have the top level of resistance 111,845. Also, there is a level of support 110,588. When the price touched 111,845,...
Quote
More, we can see a pattern "bat". It gives a signal to decrease, which confirms the analysis of the levels.
Thank you for your analysis. I am always intrigued when people evoke furry winged mammals to justify causality in markets.

Heres my Fundamental Analysis and interpretation of recent events:
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  • #164
  • Apr 28, 2016 7:19am Apr 28, 2016 7:19am
Just getting away from trends and technical analysis for a moment, because this is really important for aspiring traders.

Outside of this forum, few understand what trading is all about, in fact, most haven't got a clue. As you close yourself into the often lonely world of the aspiring trader, people on the outside - friends and family, will not necessarily understand your journey. You will face criticism, negativity, and perhaps even hostility through no more reason than these people will not understand what you are trying to achieve. It will, as I found on my journey, be one of the biggest challenges you are likely to face, for there is no profession less understood than that of a retail trader, and almost everybody who knows you will believe you are on the road to ruin, especially if you are losing, which at one time or another, will be inevitable.

The extent to which you eventually succeed, will be the extent to which you are able to endure this formidable headwind.
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  • #165
  • Apr 28, 2016 7:48am Apr 28, 2016 7:48am
Quoting cat
Just getting away from trends and technical analysis for a moment, because this is really important for aspiring traders. Outside of this forum, few understand what trading is all about, in fact, most haven't got a clue. As you close yourself into the often lonely world of the aspiring trader, people on the outside - friends and family, will not necessarily understand your journey. You will face criticism, negativity, and perhaps even hostility through no more reason than these people will not understand what you are trying to achieve. It will,...
i cannot agree more with this comment , well when i say to my family that i would start trading which is forex , the first word they say it DANGEROUS , keep away from it and earn money like ur brother and sister did and even my friend and my love one say the same thing . Gosh seem everybody did not see what i see . I still remember jack ma quote "stay hunger and follow ur dream" . This journey very alone , at least what i feel becoming a trader .After struggle so many month i get the result i want . So yeah never give up and follow ur dream no matter what the obstacle just face it . Cheers !
  • #166
  • Apr 28, 2016 8:56am Apr 28, 2016 8:56am
Quoting CosmasMoses
{quote} i cannot agree more with this comment , well when i say to my family that i would start trading which is forex , the first word they say it DANGEROUS , keep away from it and earn money like ur brother and sister did and even my friend and my love one say the same thing . Gosh seem everybody did not see what i see . I still remember jack ma quote "stay hunger and follow ur dream" . This journey very alone , at least what i feel becoming a trader .After struggle so many month i get the result i want . So yeah never give up and follow ur dream...
Looks like you're doing great...well done!
  • #167
  • Apr 28, 2016 9:22am Apr 28, 2016 9:22am
Part of the problem is psychology too, and I will give you my recent example. I was trading a "Midnight Strategy" based on brokers midnight. Placing a Sell stop and Buy stop at either end of the most recent Daily candle, as long as it was at least 90 pips. I avoided trades on doji's, hammers and shooting stars.
My demo account was progressing nicely for a month or more, so I decided to go live. I had like one pair lose out of 4 GBP pairs traded per night usually.

Using real money the first night I lost about $16 and didn't win any trades. So that changed my thinking, and I thought...why not just place the Stop order in the direction I think it will go? Surely it is going to dive.
As you can see...GBP pairs took a steep bullish trend around 4/22/16, and that is when I lost $167. Had I continued with my strategy, I would have banked a lot of money.

I'm not sure if I will ever overcome the emotional difference between demo and live. One of the main reasons I am looking at an EA or signal service, because it takes me and my emotions out of the trade.
  • #168
  • Apr 28, 2016 9:39am Apr 28, 2016 9:39am
Quoting TexasPipster
. I'm not sure if I will ever overcome the emotional difference between demo and live. One of the main reasons I am looking at an EA or signal service, because it takes me and my emotions out of the trade.
I don't know how long you've been trading, but you'll have to sooner or later. As you get more confident with your strategy, it'll come. If you don't fully trust yourself or your strategy, the psychological hurdle will always be massive.
  • #169
  • Apr 28, 2016 9:52am Apr 28, 2016 9:52am
Quoting TexasPipster
I decided to go live. I had like one pair lose out of 4 GBP pairs traded per night usually. Using real money the first night I lost about $16 and didn't win any trades. So that changed my thinking, and I thought...why not just place the Stop order in the direction I think it will go? Surely it is going to dive. As you can see...GBP pairs took a steep bullish trend around 4/22/16, and that is when I lost $167. Had I continued with my strategy, I would have banked a lot of money.
Quote
I'm not sure if I will ever overcome the emotional difference between demo and live. One of the main reasons I am looking at an EA or signal service, because it takes me and my emotions out of the trade.
Thank you for sharing your process.

I observe a pattern of wanting to "fix" things. Seeing as how you got the opposite of the intended effect when you attempted to fix your strategy, I question the wisdom of attempting to 'fix' your psychology by using <an EA or signal service>.

Also consider the fact that many sophisticated traders will only start off when they have accumulated a sufficient amount of trading capital to afford adequate diversification and that some of these people witness daily equity wiggles that are orders of magnitude greater than your catastrophic loss of $167. Consider doing some actual research into the field and contemplate if this is really what you want.
  • #170
  • Apr 28, 2016 10:33am Apr 28, 2016 10:33am
Thought I'd post this as it's quite instructive. I always put a trend line in when I can. This is from the 22nd on the Dax, a very rangy day with no clear direction, but there were loads of pips on offer to prove that you don't need a trending market to make money. They are the 2m and the 10m charts. The 10m shows the resistance level which is the 200 Simple Moving Average. it's the 2m though which is important here, because what I want to show is that when you have a trendline in, you don't necessarily have to wait for the price to break through it because the price action can communicate pretty clearly what it's likely to do.

A short could be taken on A, because of the resistance, but I wouldn't short here as there is really nothing to go on. B though is much better, I have a lower high held by the 76.4% fib, I have some nice upper stalks on the candles, and I have a trend line. For me, to wait for the break of the trend line would be too low, as it would require a stop that is outside my risk level placing it above the Bollinger band. But in a situation like this, with clear signals that the price is likely to drop, you don't need to wait for the trendline to be broken,as just having it there is confirmation enough.

Concerning the 76.4% fib, I look upon it like this...if the price was going to break higher, it would have done, but it clearly fails. all you need to do now is take the signal and take the trade with a stop above the Bollinger.
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  • #171
  • Apr 28, 2016 12:21pm Apr 28, 2016 12:21pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Looks like you're doing great...well done!
thank alot buddy ! hope u always get green pip always !
  • #172
  • Apr 28, 2016 12:50pm Apr 28, 2016 12:50pm
Yes there is a secret of trading,which is out of the reach of most retail traders,that is when the big money is in........
The secret is in front of your eyes in the chart.........
And that is why most retail traders loose,that is a fact and it will not change for long time to come
atheer1
  • #173
  • Apr 28, 2016 4:48pm Apr 28, 2016 4:48pm
I regularly give my self brain damage exploring new ideas and different ways to trade but I enjoy the chase, the buzz, but at the end of every new idea it always results to one very simple to understand logic and that is to sell the highs and buy the lows. ...green pips.
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #174
  • Apr 28, 2016 9:10pm Apr 28, 2016 9:10pm
Whenever I am in need of a laugh I pop into the FF. The news commentary is hilarious but the bigger laughs are in the forums.

There is no such thing as a trend, this is just trader speak. Price is going somewhere or it is not and may get a wiggle on or just rest up a while in the process of doing so.

Price action itself has nothing whatsoever to do with Fibs, MA's, Bands or whatever indicator you care to choose.

Price has everything to do with support and resistance where both sides are constantly being tested for strengths or weaknesses.

Supports and resistances are not general areas as in 'zones', they are pip perfect specific points.

If you don't believe this then plod on my friends and continue to do what you do.
  • #175
  • Edited 2:21am Apr 29, 2016 1:08am | Edited 2:21am
Quoting Nala66
Supports and resistances are not general areas as in 'zones', they are pip perfect specific points.
Thanks for making me laugh with that one Nala.

Why not prove one of these specific tick perfect points to us, name a cross, name the time period and state the specific tick level ahead of time.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #176
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:38am Apr 29, 2016 2:38am
Quoting cat
Just getting away from trends and technical analysis for a moment, because this is really important for aspiring traders. Outside of this forum, few understand what trading is all about, in fact, most haven't got a clue. As you close yourself into the often lonely world of the aspiring trader, people on the outside - friends and family, will not necessarily understand your journey. You will face criticism, negativity, and perhaps even hostility through no more reason than these people will not understand what you are trying to achieve. It will,...
awesome post.. all my relatives thought for years that I am a gambler that is about to fail miserably and on the road to ruin his life exactly as you said haha recently they started convincing me how they want to gamble with me
  • #177
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:40am Apr 29, 2016 2:40am
Quoting Calculus
{quote} Thanks for making me laugh with that one Nala. Why not prove one of these specific tick perfect points to us, name a cross, name the time period and state the specific tick level ahead of time.
I have the UJ going down to 106.303
  • #178
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:45am Apr 29, 2016 2:45am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I have the UJ going down to 106.303
Nice one, we'll check it out, you're being a good sport.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #179
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:49am Apr 29, 2016 2:49am
Cat, great thread here.

You wrote OUTSIDE of this forum most don't understand what trading is all about.

That's one point I'd like to disagree on.

By far most HERE don't have the slightest clue, and what they write is completely representative of the stats saying that by far the huge majority are net losers.

All ya gotta do to garner a huge following of muppets on a board is, claim to have only winning trades or at woirst breakeven trades. (OK, breakeven plus 2, to be fair haha).

Then you go ahead and post pretty paintshopped charts, of course always after the fact, of what you claim were your trades for the day.

Hindsight aided charts that show how ya woulda-coulda-shoulda gone ahead and nailed every single intraday top, bottom, and wiggle in between.

And in no time at all you'll get called Master. by your sheeples.

And what's sad is that this is a true story on boards.

Nonsense like this has been around forever, so it isn't even anything new.

The propensity of humas to self delusion truly knows no bounds.

Explains Maddoff, that does.

;-)
Trading is just a probability game.
  • #180
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:20am Apr 29, 2016 3:20am
Quoting DashRiprock
Nonsense like this has been around forever, so it isn't even anything new. The propensity of humas to self delusion truly knows no bounds.
Dash, there's pure Gold in message boards, whatever subject you choose, whether one is interested in gardening, trading or DIY.

But like Gold in the ground, it's not everywhere. In a modern Gold mine there's something like 1 gram of Gold per tonne of ore.

Same with the message boards, you have to mine the ore to find the good stuff.

I've long argued that message boards are the internet's biggest secret because you get real people talking about real problems/advice. But as I said, you have to learn to separate the good stuff from the mass of crap.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
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