Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 378 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #7,541
  • Apr 26, 2016 12:22pm Apr 26, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting rio cyrano
can i set and forget to go long @ Daily DZ 1.11950 - 1.11440 (the zone is fresh and original)? or i must wait descending trendline break and make new DZ @ daily. Thanks Rio
Hello,
If price broke the D1 ASC TL You may go long with one HTF DZ, so if WK UP trend in good D1 DZ nested in WK DZ.
Supply & Demand trading
  • #7,542
  • Apr 26, 2016 1:12pm Apr 26, 2016 1:12pm
Quoting rio cyrano
Hi, I want ask EURUSD @WK : UP, price hits SZ @WK and price not took the SZ. {image} @DAILY : break ascending trendline (DOWN), but the price not took DZ. {image} can i set and forget to go long @ Daily DZ 1.11950 - 1.11440 (the zone is fresh and original)? or i must wait descending trendline break and make new DZ @ daily. Thanks Rio
Hello rio, if I may share my view on the EURUSD:

Since the weekly SZ is in control and we are high in the curve I would not consider to go long until the SZ is taken out or we hit the weekly DZ.
But going long at the weekly DZ only after confirmation, it is not fresh anymore.
The daily trendline was broken and a new SZ was created. The DZ on the Daily was not taken out, but I would not consider it as a fresh zone.

For set and forget you have to wait until price hits a fresh weekly DZ after the daily trendline was broken (realignment rule), but in the EURUSD there is no such zone. So in any case you have to wait for confirmation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,543
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:07pm Apr 26, 2016 4:07pm
Sorry for my simple question, but I can't understand one thing - when trend is changing. For example I added attachement USDCAD, trend before trenline breake was UP, so what trend is right now ? Can I consider it UP, or it is now consolidating? It will be down when it remove oposing zone or create 2 valleys ? So for now I cant trade till I don't know right trend ? Only choice to go lower TF ?
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  • #7,544
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:28pm Apr 26, 2016 4:28pm
Quoting rokutata
Sorry for my simple question, but I can't understand one thing - when trend is changing. For example I added attachement USDCAD, trend before trenline breake was UP, so what trend is right now ? Can I consider it UP, or it is now consolidating? It will be down when it remove oposing zone or create 2 valleys ? So for now I cant trade till I don't know right trend ? Only choice to go lower TF ?
rokutata if ASC TL is broken we have bullish consolidation until two DZ remover or one +two peak.
Supply & Demand trading
  • #7,545
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:30pm Apr 26, 2016 4:30pm
Quoting CoolRain
{quote} rokutata if ASC TL is broken we have bullish consolidation until two DZ remover or one +two peak.
Thanks for the reply and your support. Those are the rules Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,546
  • Apr 26, 2016 11:33pm Apr 26, 2016 11:33pm
Quoting dis01
{quote} Hello rio, if I may share my view on the EURUSD: Since the weekly SZ is in control and we are high in the curve I would not consider to go long until the SZ is taken out or we hit the weekly DZ. But going long at the weekly DZ only after confirmation, it is not fresh anymore. The daily trendline was broken and a new SZ was created. The DZ on the Daily was not taken out, but I would not consider it as a fresh zone. For set and forget you have to wait until price hits a fresh weekly DZ after the daily trendline was broken (realignment rule),...

thanks dis01, thats i'm agree with you. but we know @ WK the descending trendline is break and we know thats need MN SZ to go short.(RULE)
Attached Image

and now the ascending trendline @ daily break, but thats not change trend @ daily. (trend is change if 2 opposing zone is taken out) and @WK too, not taken out, not yet. trend is change from LTF to HTF.
@ Daily :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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@ basing candle, we have 3 candle. why draw zone is full last candle? number 1 and 2, open or close not higher from close at last candle. i think thats price not yet hit DZ @ daily. that zone still fresh and original.

Daily is still up, WK is Up and to far from MN SZ.


thanks

Rio
from loser to be hero
  • #7,547
  • Apr 27, 2016 1:03am Apr 27, 2016 1:03am
Quoting rio cyrano
{quote} @ basing candle, we have 3 candle. why draw zone is full last candle? number 1 and 2, open or close not higher from close at last candle. i think thats price not yet hit DZ @ daily. that zone still fresh and original. Daily is still up, WK is Up and to far from MN SZ. thanks Rio
See Image included:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,548
  • Apr 27, 2016 2:18am Apr 27, 2016 2:18am
AUDCAD has a Daily downtrend, new supply being created and respected at #1 and #2. Daily supply at #2 took out Daily demand imbalance at #4

Tested Weekly supply at #3 is weak because we have monthly supply in control at #4. Short bias. Short at new supply zones. Alert set upon removal of weekly supply at #3.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,549
  • Apr 27, 2016 3:07am Apr 27, 2016 3:07am
Quoting dis01
{quote} See Image included: {image}

thanks dis01. You are right, i draw DZ @ daily to low. okay now just wait break trendline to go long.


thanks

Rio
from loser to be hero
  • #7,550
  • Apr 27, 2016 3:11am Apr 27, 2016 3:11am
Quoting panoramia
AUDCAD has a Daily downtrend, new supply being created and respected at #1 and #2. Daily supply at #2 took out Daily demand imbalance at #4 Tested Weekly supply at #3 is weak because we have monthly supply in control at #4. Short bias. Short at new supply zones. Alert set upon removal of weekly supply at #3. {image}
Hi my friend,
I want ask, now SZ @ MN control, and DZ @ Daily taken out, make new SZ @ daily. but if DZ@ WK not taken out, the SZ @ Daily still valid to go short?


thanks

Rio
from loser to be hero
  • #7,551
  • Apr 27, 2016 5:02am Apr 27, 2016 5:02am
Quoting rio cyrano
{quote} Hi my friend, I want ask, now SZ @ MN control, and DZ @ Daily taken out, make new SZ @ daily. but if DZ@ WK not taken out, the SZ @ Daily still valid to go short? thanks Rio
Shorts we go Weak weekly demand zone and monthly supply in control
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,552
  • Apr 27, 2016 1:27pm Apr 27, 2016 1:27pm
Quoting CoolRain
{quote} rokutata if ASC TL is broken we have bullish consolidation until two DZ remover or one +two peak.
While it's bullish or bearish consolidations, we don't do any orders on that TF ?
  • #7,553
  • Apr 27, 2016 2:07pm Apr 27, 2016 2:07pm
Quoting rokutata
{quote} While it's bullish or bearish consolidations, we don't do any orders on that TF ?
When MN is in consolidation best way is to wait on confirmation in the extrems MN valley or peak.
Supply & Demand trading
  • #7,554
  • Apr 28, 2016 12:58am Apr 28, 2016 12:58am
Brand new D1 supply created on AUDNZD at #1, new bearish D1 trendline. Price reacting to monthly bearish engulf at #2 and tested Weekly supply for the second time at #3. There are 2 x Weekly bearish engulfing patterns formed on Weekly chart.

Weekly 20 EMA confluence at #4, no shorts now, a pullback to Daily supply higher is the way go, short bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,555
  • Apr 28, 2016 1:09am Apr 28, 2016 1:09am
Alfonso hello and hello all, I'm Indonesian and I have here, I would like to say a big thank you for all your hard work to help and share the lesson of how the workings of supply and demand in this thread.For me, you are a very nice person , has been a lot of volunteer time, energy and thoughts for the people that are here, and I say few people like you.Thread was very helpful, especially my new forex world, I beg guidance and hopefully I can be as successful as you. ,
  • #7,556
  • Edited 2:26am Apr 28, 2016 2:16am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting Chandra.AP
Alfonso hello and hello all, I'm Indonesian and I have here, I would like to say a big thank you for all your hard work to help and share the lesson of how the workings of supply and demand in this thread.For me, you are a very nice person , has been a lot of volunteer time, energy and thoughts for the people that are here, and I say few people like you.Thread was very helpful, especially my new forex world, I beg guidance and hopefully I can be as successful as you. ,
Thanks a lot for your kind words my friend, I really appreciate it, glad to be of help to you and other traders reading my supply and demand thread here at Forex Factory. I'd recommend you to register the free webinars at http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars so you can be informed of next webinars and download latest indicators. If you do, make you you drop me a note so I know who you are I see you are from Indonesia. I've been asked by a group of Indonesian traders to visit and organize a workshop in Jakarta in August, not 100% yet, but maybe you might be interested. Send me an email if you are.

Have a great day!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,557
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:23pm Apr 28, 2016 2:23pm
Hi Alfonso,

my first analysis NZDUSD:

1. NZDUSD Monthly is up, we broke a trendline and got support from monthly demand area.

2. Daily Entry Long at 0.6875 Stop some pips below. Stop some pips below 0.6823. I would have stopped out because price went short time below 23.

Is my analysis correct?

Thanks a lot!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,558
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:43pm Apr 28, 2016 2:43pm
And another one:

1. Monthly UK100GBP Supply Area in control. we are near the supply level

2. D1 created a new supply level because we broke through d1 demand. Awaiting entry at 6358. Stop above the area.

What do you think?

Jandarana
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,559
  • Apr 28, 2016 3:22pm Apr 28, 2016 3:22pm
Hello traders,

I want to consult with you traders about GBPJPY pair. I made topdown analysis:
Monthly: Trend is down, but we are close to demand zode, shorts not alowed.
Weekly: Trend is down, price is reacting to supply zone, if supply will be removed go longs.
Daily: Price removed two supply zones, and now touched demand.
what to we do, we wait for MN remove demand, wait for weekly remove suply and go longs, on lower TF ? Advice me please
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,560
  • Apr 28, 2016 11:35pm Apr 28, 2016 11:35pm
Quoting jandarana
Hi Alfonso, my first analysis NZDUSD: 1. NZDUSD Monthly is up, we broke a trendline and got support from monthly demand area. 2. Daily Entry Long at 0.6875 Stop some pips below. Stop some pips below 0.6823. I would have stopped out because price went short time below 23. Is my analysis correct? Thanks a lot! {image} {image}
You are not analyzing the markets or drawing the imbalances as per the rules, what you did does not resemble to any of the rules So, as long as you draw the zones as per the rules it's not possible to give you any feedback. Sorry

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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