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Higher low, lower high system

  • #7,241
  • Apr 26, 2016 4:49am Apr 26, 2016 4:49am
Whilst this could be considered a stand alone 5 min system if you are not aware of the possibility of price reacting at a certain level you are probably doing yourself a dis-service.
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  • #7,242
  • Apr 26, 2016 8:48am Apr 26, 2016 8:48am
For years now had the general view to avoid weak CT moves pre US open looking for London direction to continue, http://vantagefx.blogspot.co.za/2012...eearly-us.html today was another example.
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  • #7,243
  • Apr 27, 2016 4:34am Apr 27, 2016 4:34am
Once again the 3 bar reversal signaling solid HL/LH trades.
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  • #7,244
  • Apr 27, 2016 8:27am Apr 27, 2016 8:27am
Quoting Vantage
Once again the 3 bar reversal signaling solid HL/LH trades. {image} {image}
Hi could you please share your new template and a little explain your strategy
Thanks
  • #7,245
  • Apr 27, 2016 9:12am Apr 27, 2016 9:12am
Quoting mortezakh
{quote} Hi could you please share your new template and a little explain your strategy Thanks
The 5 min template has been added to the first post, the 3 bar reversal here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post8878722 and its a 12 12 1 stoch setting. The trading times for FO, LO and US open attached here.
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File Type: ex4 #JF_TradingTimes.ex4   12 KB | 400 downloads
  • #7,246
  • Apr 27, 2016 9:27am Apr 27, 2016 9:27am
Quoting mortezakh
{quote} Hi could you please share your new template and a little explain your strategy Thanks
The first post is fairly detailed on HL DB's/LH DT's and if you wish to look at higher TF's for trend etc etc.

You can look at the 5 min chart with HL/LH's that are crossing the 20lwma or those HL/LH's that follow price crossing the 20lwma. Its a pretty good stand alone system. Not sure what else to say really but there are lots of other things we consider and the first post has numerous links. For example if LO has had a reasonably quick 70 odd pip move on the majority of days thats likely it until an hour or so before LO. We also avoid weak CT moves going into the US open looking for the LO trend to continue. The first trade is always the best and if we catch that we'll carry on going within reason.

The 20lwma/stoch 12 12 1 filter will miss some HL/LH's (particularly when price has moved strongly/quickly and then reverses) but as an audible alert signal this was about as good as I could get it. The definition of 3 bar reversal is in the 1st post.

Not sure what else to say. There are numerous examples of trades.
  • #7,247
  • Apr 27, 2016 12:02pm Apr 27, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting Vantage
{quote} The first post is fairly detailed on HL DB's/LH DT's and if you wish to look at higher TF's for trend etc etc. You can look at the 5 min chart with HL/LH's that are crossing the 20lwma or those HL/LH's that follow price crossing the 20lwma. Its a pretty good stand alone system. Not sure what else to say really but there are lots of other things we consider and the first post has numerous links. For example if LO has had a reasonably quick 70 odd pip move on the majority of days thats likely it until an hour or so before LO. We also avoid...
  • #7,248
  • Apr 28, 2016 4:26am Apr 28, 2016 4:26am
Hell of a thred V...i come back to it and reread all the time..... a real education in trading .. one could pay a lot of money and not get any were near what is contained in this thred... hope this needle thing is going well and fixing your problem..
  • #7,249
  • Apr 28, 2016 4:39am Apr 28, 2016 4:39am
Yup quite agree with that.

I know a guy who has been trading a long long time, pretty much just like here has one MA for ABCD trend visualisation help, and trades pullbacks plus a spot of Elliot Wave chucked in for good measure, the simple stuff, aka 3 pushes up / down and you usually - not always, but usually, get trend exhaustion - and that's it method wise, and he has been making a terrific living off of just that.

He probably loses more money in a month than most make in a lifetime of trading, but then he is in this to make money in his bottom line at the end of the week, not be right on individual trades.

Incredible how much money you can make when you live in reality and forget about striving for non-achievable perfection, forget about trying to catch every top, bottom and wiggle in between.

Reproducable and robust KISS has and does withstand the test of time, markets don't change because people don't change.

Unannotated - is that a word lol - you wouldn't be able to tell if a chart is fom 1928 or 1988 or 2018.

Good stuff here.

:-)
Trading is just a probability game.
  • #7,250
  • Apr 28, 2016 4:48am Apr 28, 2016 4:48am
Just took this Dax 30 trade on a 3 pip Renco chart for 23 pips....Simple HL/HH ABCD stuff......love what you guys are doing here
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  • #7,251
  • Apr 28, 2016 4:59am Apr 28, 2016 4:59am
Good trade there mate.

You've definitely chosen a market that no one could accuse of being a sleepyhead.

Great volatility there.

:-)
Trading is just a probability game.
  • #7,252
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:03am Apr 28, 2016 5:03am
Quoting danc
Hell of a thred V...i come back to it and reread all the time..... a real education in trading .. one could pay a lot of money and not get any were near what is contained in this thred... hope this needle thing is going well and fixing your problem..
Hi Danc, thanks your are to kind.

Its Mrs V's back/neck problem. Looks like it was a success (a small amount to see if it would work) so as mentioned now the major injections will happen under anesthetic.
  • #7,253
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:04am Apr 28, 2016 5:04am
Quoting DashRiprock
Yup quite agree with that. I know a guy who has been trading a long long time, pretty much just like here has one MA for ABCD trend visualisation help, and trades pullbacks plus a spot of Elliot Wave chucked in for good measure, the simple stuff, aka 3 pushes up / down and you usually - not always, but usually, get trend exhaustion - and that's it method wise, and he has been making a terrific living off of just that. He probably loses more money in a month than most make in a lifetime of trading, but then he is in this to make money in his bottom...
  • #7,254
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:10am Apr 28, 2016 5:10am
Quoting PhilippineFX
Just took this Dax 30 trade on a 3 pip Renco chart for 23 pips....Simple HL/HH ABCD stuff......love what you guys are doing here{image}
Nice stuff.

The D dax chart does show where a bounce could have occurred. We never know which will win out trend v SR levels but if you get the right pa at the level you might get in earlier.

Dax 5 min had a nice evening star type pattern (push up, hesitation, neg close) but the close was not quite causing the 12 12 1 to go below 50 so no alert. But if you were in front of charts that should have caused some interest. See the red line after LO.

Haven't played around yet but the alert might need to be a little quicker for Dax 9 9 1 perhaps.

Only 1 small win for me today not worth posting that one.
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  • #7,255
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:12am Apr 28, 2016 5:12am
Quoting Vantage
For example if LO has had a reasonably quick 70 odd pip move on the majority of days thats likely it until an hour or so before LO.
Refers more to gbp fx pairs, dax a different issue. Just to clarify.
  • #7,256
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:21am Apr 28, 2016 5:21am
Quoting DashRiprock
Good trade there mate. You've definitely chosen a market that no one could accuse of being a sleepyhead. Great volatility there. :-)
Yes the Dax has its moments but not a nutty as the GBPJPY my old nemesis..
  • #7,257
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:32am Apr 28, 2016 5:32am
Yay looked at charts of GBPJPY best and worst of Brits and Japanese combined in one place
Trading is just a probability game.
  • #7,258
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:54am Apr 28, 2016 5:54am
PS re the chat we had a while ago re overall system expectancy and the rather irrelevant role winning percentages play in that.

Posted an excerpt of this elsewhere just now, and makes pretty relevant reading:

From Linda Raschke:


"Linda [16:18:07]> this is an extreme example by the way
Linda [16:18:15]> but surely most of you at one point have seen that show
Linda [16:18:17]> DEAL or NO DEAL
Linda [16:18:29]> you know the very first person to mention this show to me?
Linda [16:18:30]> ha
Linda [16:18:33]> Chris Terry!
Linda [16:18:42]> Oh wait
Linda [16:18:45]> Wrong show
Linda [16:18:53]> tells you how much I watch TV
Linda [16:18:53]> OK
Linda [16:19:05]> The show was THE WEAKEST LINK
Linda [16:19:15]> OK - optiaml betting strategy for THE WEAKEST LINK
Linda [16:19:17]> is to either
Linda [16:19:27]> 1) BANK after EVERY right answer
Linda [16:19:40]> (this is analogous to total scalper game)
Linda [16:19:41]> or
Linda [16:19:44]> 2)
Linda [16:19:55]> pres press press trying to go for that million bucks
Linda [16:20:10]> which you will rarely be able to do but if you can on that 1 out of 100 odds
Linda [16:20:14]> then you get the biggest payoff
Linda [16:20:18]> one extreme or the other
Linda [16:20:54]> So - point of this is, most people can not accept that the majority of the time, it is best to play for small win
Linda [16:20:57]> lock in that profit
Linda [16:21:06]> and dont cry if you do not hit home run
Linda [16:21:13]> and , if you are going to try for the home run trade
Linda [16:21:26]> then you must EXPECT to lose a very high percetange of the time, but
Linda [16:21:40]> be consistent in your game - the ultiamte trend follower.

Linda [16:25:25]> you MUST keep in mind it is a numbers game
Linda [16:25:35]> the temptation is to try and time exits and have control over
Linda [16:25:46]> every wiggle and jiggle - you can not do that
Linda [16:25:55]> your JOB was to find the intiial SETUPS
Linda [16:26:02]> that favored above average WIN
Linda [16:26:06]> and the JOB
Linda [16:26:09]> is to determine
Linda [16:26:15]> how TIGHT a stop you wish to trail
Linda [16:26:35]> the WIDER stops will of course lead to bigger wins but have lower win loss ratio
Linda [16:26:41]> you must accept this.
Linda [16:26:49]> There IS NO PERFECT WAY TO TRAIL A STOP

Linda [16:30:32]> A shorter moving average of the lows or offset moving average....
Linda [16:30:38]> on the higher time rame will be
Linda [16:30:44]> similar to a parabolic on a lower time frame
Linda [16:30:46]> For me,
Linda [16:31:06]> I use Moving avearges on LOWER time frames when I am feeling MOST CONSERVATIVE
Linda [16:31:19]> like to lock in a counter trend trade that was made off SELL DIVERGENCES
Linda [16:31:32]> A prabolic is medium tightness
Linda [16:31:48]> and an ATR function like a Keltner Channel is loosest
Linda [16:32:03]> yes, I have looked at other ATR stops like the one that makes the Red gren red rule,
Linda [16:32:12]> as well as deviation stops like Kase's DEV stop
Linda [16:32:21]> and Chandelier stops,
Linda [16:32:34]> Chuck LeBeau was the MASTER of looking at trailing stops.
Linda [16:33:16]> There is NOT one that is better then the other

Linda [16:46:17]> but you see, there is very little difference between all of them
Linda [16:46:26]> sometimes one is better, sometimes another is better

50:44]> if you are consistent in your methodology
Linda [16:50:52]> you can make LOTS of money
Linda [16:51:02]> but most do not have the temperament for it
Linda [16:51:10]> (myself included I will confess)
Linda [16:51:16]> I got out of Crude too early
Linda [16:51:32]> And I got out of the British pound with profit, and in this case early was bettter.
Linda [16:51:42]> But I would have done BEST if I stayed with the crude
Linda [16:51:57]> and got stopped out of the british pound for a loss.
Linda [16:52:09]> You must understand the nature of the game and what game you are playing
Linda [16:52:13]> KNOW YOUR GAME
Linda [16:52:20]> how many times have you heard another trader say -
Linda [16:52:26]> DANG I got out too soon
Linda [16:52:45]> but you nenver hear them say - Dang - it s good thing I tooks small scalp before that reversed on me !!!"

I probably go for the middle path, trailing medium length stops.

But just as an example of what you can achieve as a full out trend follower look at John Henry, who was born on a farm, started trading with nothing, went to achieve great and consistent success to the point that his then broker suggested he start a hedge fund, bought a baseball team for 400 mill bucks in 2002, and is on the Forbes richest list these days with a net worth of US$ 2.1 Billion.
http://www.forbes.com/profile/john-henry/

And all that with no more than roundabout, on average, one third winning trades.

Losses 70% of the time.

Just shows, one has to concentrate on what is really success relevant, not on what looks good on paper or what amateurs who do not understand success drivers in probability games focus on.

The good news is for those who can do this, sky IS the limit !

Good trading

:-)
Trading is just a probability game.
  • #7,259
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:58am Apr 28, 2016 5:58am
Err the first part, of the, umm, last part, of what Linda wrote up there went MIA:

Linda [16:50:20]> That is the nature of a trend following game
Linda [16:50:24]> lower win loss ratio
Linda [16:50:37]> lots of frustrating stop outs, but you WILL make money
Linda [16:50:38]> yes,
Linda [16:50:44]> if you are consistent in your methodology
Linda [16:50:52]> you can make LOTS of money
Linda [16:51:02]> but most do not have the temperament for it
Trading is just a probability game.
  • #7,260
  • Apr 28, 2016 8:43am Apr 28, 2016 8:43am
Its been one of those days with life getting in the way of trading. So these charts are just to show that time before US open, the pre/early US moves that I like. From around 1 chart time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY+M5.png Size: 39 KB
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