Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

Sell below 44....

Source: https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2016/0...istant-levels/




The above is the daily chart of Crude Oil. Few observations on crude oil price movement:

1. In the daily chart, Crude Oil formed an ascending channel which indicates an uptrend. Nevertheless, if we look at the weekly chart as below, the long term trend of crude oil is still bearish.
   
   ​​https://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/...ure-weekly.png
   
2. Refer to the daily chart, we can find the immediate resistance levels
   1. 200 SMA USD46
   2. Fibonacci retracement 50% USD45

   
   

   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
   
   
   
3. If Crude Oil can break USD45-46 and form a support there, in my opinion, this is a solid medium-term bullish reversal.
4. The next strong resistance zone is highlighted with a rectangle box in the daily chart. The zone is from USD53 to USD59. It is still premature to say whether Crude Oil has sufficient momentum to break this zone.
5. To gain momentum, Crude Oil should form a strong support zone above USD46.

My forecast:

1. Crude Oil will not break the ascending channel immediately. I think the prices will move in the channel for a while. How long? I dont know exactly, but I guess few weeks. Crude Oil needs to accumulate momentum to break USD45-46.
2. I think that Crude Oil will eventually form a support zone above USD46.
3. I dont think Crude Oil can break the resistance zone USD53-59 within 2 to 3 months. This resistance zone is pretty strong.
4. Therefore, I forecast that Crude Oil prices will range between USD46 to USD50 in the next 2-3 months.

This is my view in forecasting medium term price movement of Crude Oil. Accuracy is unknown. If my forecast turns out to be correct, it is just lucky.

attempt to take out $45 this morning did not go too well

For me it is not clear at the moment... The inside day we had on Friday created a "Wedge" -> Will simply wait until we have a clear direction.

This week I will be looking to get short. Probably tuesday

next KEY LEVEL FOR USOIL 50.41 BUY FROM THERE OR SELL??

Buy above 50 SL. 49.30...
Sell below 50. SL. 50.30.

I got 49.87 buy order with tp 50.30

crude oil is going to 60... On a weekly chart we see a nice set up to break out higher. Here's the road map. Next target is 54.50, then 60. 54.50 will sell off some just like 51.57 sold off (but 54.50 won't be as strong a sell off). There be some ebb and flow on the way, but that's the blue print.

sell was the best

Hello.

Seems like we've done the A down and shaping the B up to continue in C down


Best Regards,

Max

With the bearish market of crude oil, traders can make good money even by selling it.

The important to me is the entry

Brent Crude Oil: Daily view

AB=CD pattern present
Channel UP breaking to the downside
38,2% retracement target now in play



Trade safe

Progress...

Monthly Chart
We will start our review by looking at a monthly chart. The oil market historically witnessed 2 highs: in 2008 and 2012. However, the strong bullish trend opened more than a decade ago. In January 2002 anyone could buy 1 barrel of Brent at about USD20. That was almost a starting point of the Monthly uptrend. Let us have a look at the chart. Waves of the Monthly timeframe are drawn with aquamarine lines. The first momentum bullish A wave had been creating for 6 years and resulted in a sevenfold price by 2008.
This momentum was followed by the sharp B wave correction. The bears showed all their talents and had dropped the price from USD140 down to USD40 within 6 months! It seemed that some miracle kept the price from falling below USD40. If we compare strength of A and B waves, we could really doubt which force dominated then. But if we look at Awesome Indicator (AOx4) of the older timeframe (that is 4-Months for a Monthly chart), we will see this wave down was not supported by the older chart at that time.
At the end of 2008 Brent jumped up from USD40 thus giving a start for the 3rd wave or the C momentum wave. The 3rd wave in the classical Wave Theory should overcome the 1st one. The C wave up on the Brent market continued 3 years but failed to reach more than USD128 and became a truncated one. But it happened to be clear by 2015 only when the bears broke the blue slope channel. This milestone event also got support from the older 4-Months chart (see the older AOx4 indicator). It was then when the bears took charge of the forming down move that should be considered a new momentum A wave of the new bearish trend.


Weekly Chart
The A wave of the Monthly chart could be either a 3-wave or 5-wave structure on a smaller Weekly chart. The Monthly subwaves or Weekly waves are shown with the grey lines displaying A, B and C waves of the Weekly chart respectively: the A down in 2012, than the complex B correction through 2012-2014 followed by the C down till January 2016. And now we are witnessing another correction wave that is marked as 4. We think that the current move is exactly the 4th wave of correction within the Weekly chart. It could not be considered to be a starting wave of the new bullish trend until the older 4-Months chart gives us a signal on its Awesome Indicator (see AOx4 on the Weekly chart).
In the same time the 4th correction wave on the Weekly chart has not finished yet since a small recent down correction has not been reflected on the Weekly chart. If we take the Daily chart we could see that the A wave down has not finished yet as well. So, let us get down to smaller timeframes, say, 8-Hours chart.


8-Hours Chart
Waves of the 8-Hours Chart are drawn with chocolate lines. The 3-wave bullish 8-Hours structure that started in January 2016 already finished as it was confirmed by a break of its respective slope channel and AO Indicator of the older 32-Hours timeframe (see AOx4 on the 8-Hours chart).
We may see that within the A wave down of the 32-Hours chart the bears formed the A wave down on the 8-Hours chart, then transferred a flag for a while to the bulls who made the complex B correction wave and now continue to move the price down within the C momentum.


Summary
So, let us summarize crude oil trend on the Brent chart of different timeframes:

1. Monthly: the A impulse down in progress
2. Weekly: the 4th correction up in progress to be followed by the 5th impulse down
3. Daily: the A impulse down is forming
4. 8-Hours: the C impulse down is forming inside 3-wave ABC structure

Crude shorts today are about to get sucker punch selling what is probably the low right now. I would not be surprised if it goes up 100 points from here at least

As of this time I think price will go up a dollar or more. Lets see. On hourly the last 2 swing lows are being met with bullish divergence

I agree