Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

EURCAD topdown analysis:
Monthly: Trend is UP.
Weekly: Just made LL and created cleard down trend.
Daily: Also made LL.
H4: Created LL and we can set order on 1.4445.
I hope it's right

German DAX 30 Index analysis shows a 6 and 3 months uptrend. 3 months demand imbalance in control + 3 months 20 EMA confluence.
New Weekly and Daily demand zones were formed and playing out

Hi traders,

I am new to these concepts - anyone could direct me to the video that explain the principle of the trend lines and area of S&D on the higher timeframes

Thank you

Gerry

Hello Gerry,

There are some videos that deal with trendlines and supply and demand zones. Please visit my supply and demand YouTube channel to watch them, the link was also posted in the first post.

Have a great day.
Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com

Hope you liked yesterday's webinar. First of all, thanks a lot for your massive support, the webinar was at maximum capacity yesterday. I know many could not attend for several reasons, one of them was having reached its full capacity. Almost 200 people joined it but the maximum capacity was for 100 people. I apologize if you were not able to log in, it went beyond my control. I just didn't expect so many people in a webinar.

A big thank you to all the attendees, specially to those that kept on asking questions and contributed to the correct flow and mechanics of the webinar. Thanks a million.

We covered many rules and scenarios, we applied the basic rules one by one and that told us what to do and what not to do. Knowing what not to do is very important because it will prevent us from having unnecessary losses.

Some of the topics and rules covered in this webinar:

1. A potential imbalance is confirmed only if a) It takes out an opposing zone b) It breaks a valid trendline
2. How to draw trendlines. The break of it is paramount. Don't believe what I say or do, test the rules and you will see by yourself
3. An imbalance that has accomplished nothing is just that, nothing. Trading it will require confirmation
4. The power of nested zones. A zone nested within bigger timeframe zone(s) is more powerful that one that is not nested
5. How the realignment rules work
6. Trading your 3 timeframes sequence is the only thing that matters, forget about everything else
7. No need of indicators to tell us what price is most likely to do, supply and demand and price action is the only non-lagging indicator

We analysed a bunch of instruments, Forex, Stocks and Indexes. I might forget some but here there are:

1. EURAUD
2. Dow Jones Index
3. S&P 500 index
4. AUD/JPY
5. GBP/USD
6. EUR/NZD
7. APPLE
8. LinkedIn
9. Indian Nifty Index
10. Gold
11. Brent
12. WTI
13. Dax 30 German Index

Thanks a lot again for your massive support.
Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com

A top-down analysis in AUDCAD.
MN-Trend is Up. Zones are drawn correctly?
W1-Trend is Up. Zones are drawn correctly?
W1-Supply almost inside MN-Supply
D1-Trend is Up. Zones are drawn correctly?
H4-Trend is Down? TL-Break & Take out of opposing D-Zone? Zones are drawn correctly?

I've got a short position. At the moment I took the trade, the daily trendline was not broken. Right now I'm watching it closley. Maybe there is enough momentum to break the daily DZ. If not I will close the trade.
My Zones and Analysis differ a little bit.

Hi, Some comments:
MN:

1. You are right. There is a D-Zone on the MN-Chart, like you draw it (09-10/2015)
2. I think that, in the S-Zone (04-08/2015) you draw, you must include also the real body of all Basing Candles
3. My MN-TL was wrong

W1:

1. I think the S-Zone you draw on 27/12/2015 is not original, because there is an other S-Zone to the left. The arrival at that Zone is not very optimal (too many long upper wicks)
2. The D-Zone on 22/11/2015 is not fresh
3. I did not draw the D-Zone on 01/11/2015
4. I think the TL is Up, like I draw it. Break of down TL and take out of opposing S-Zone

D1:

1. The S-Zone on 31/12/2015 is not fresh at my broker (IC Markets). It has been touched on 19/01/2016
2. The D-Zone on 01/03/2016 is not original (see Distal line to the left). On my D1-chart too. So we must take the D-Zone of 16/11/2015, like you have done
3. The TL is not valid. There are no picks to join. those you used to draw your TL are not picks, they are CPs ⇒ The Trend is still Up

H4:

1. In the S-Zone of 20/04/2016 and 07/04/2016, you must include all the Basing Candles
2. At the right TL the second point is not a pick

These are my comments. I attache also my charts that I have corrected. It is any critique from me, only my opinion, that maybe can be wrong.

Where is Akt? He has disappeared, I wish to be well.

Thanks for the info. How can I send you a PM?

GBPAUD is too low in the monthly curve, monthly demand imbalance is in control, we should not sell against higher timeframe demand in control and after a strong drop in price.

Brand new daily demand imbalances could be created if the bearish Daily trendline is broken. Waiting for that to happen or the removal of the monthly demand zone (price area between the lower thick black lines) for more shorts. Too low to sell now, too low, too late.

Hi Alfonso

Thanks for this post.

A quick question if it's ok: why is the candlestick I've circled not considered a "peak"?



I wasn't sure whether the strong bullish outside bar three candles later (which included the lower low that potentially made the circled candlestick a peak) had something to do with that.

Thanks
olpip

Not a peak because it does not follow the rules my friend. Read the rules when a peak is a peak and you will know why it's not a peak. A peak needs to make a lower low than the previous peak's second leg low.

Cheers,
Alfonso

Thanks Alfonso, I've read the rules and that's why I'm asking the question

At least as I read this chart, it seems that the second leg of the second peak (right-hand red arrow) is indeed lower - if only by a small amount - than the second leg of the first peak (left-hand red arrow):



This interpretation seems to follow the rules (at least as I understand them - I appreciate that could be the problem!)

olpip

You are absolutely right, I looked at it on my mobile and price made a slight lower low so the trendline should be like the one you mentioned. My mistake! I thought it had not made a lower low, but it did. Thanks for letting me know.

Cheers,
Alfonso

No worries at all Alfonso, thank you for confirming.

olpip

Hi,

I follow this thread regularly. But this my first question here. MACCI indicator does not show CCI value in my chart? But why?


Thanks.

We don't use any indicators, CCI? Nothing! You must be using an old template or something which is not related to current rules and thread.
Cheers,
Alfonso

Hi,

Thanks for quick reply. Its okay..

Cheers,
Saiffx

Hi,

I want ask EURUSD

@WK : UP, price hits SZ @WK and price not took the SZ.

@DAILY : break ascending trendline (DOWN), but the price not took DZ.


can i set and forget to go long @ Daily DZ 1.11950 - 1.11440 (the zone is fresh and original)? or i must wait descending trendline break and make new DZ @ daily.

Thanks

Rio