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GBP/AUD

  • #1,221
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:03am Apr 23, 2016 8:03am
here it is on daily. Apologies for thread contamination. )))
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  • #1,222
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:12am Apr 23, 2016 8:12am
Quoting asgcorp
still R/R 1 to 5 is decent. on 100K 4K upside. there is risk in here, but for the most part I see NU straight down while GU initially will push higher and then reverse. The key is timing here. I think going in long with SL less than 100 pips just don't make sense here. {image} {image}
Where would you buy? I think it has to at least touch 2,085 looking at the weekly, would correspond with 0,69 NU.
The problem is the interest rate decision, I have seen a few NZ rate decisions and the spread was crazy, at moments 100 pips, 600 pip swings in a few minutes, so it can hit stops even far away.

You think it will go straight up? At the moment this is already a 700 pip swing, need to come back a bit in my opinion. You are already in a position on GN? What is your plan for GA? AN is going also higher so the move on GA will not be as strong as GN. So GN maybe the better trade depending on the rate decision. Will be a big day Wednesday with first FOMC and the NZ rate decision.
  • #1,223
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:20am Apr 23, 2016 8:20am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Pleasure, thanks ceetee the majors are going to really start moving soon, AU, NZ GU EU UJ approaching major turning points. GN is way to crazy for me to touch I think GY could range here for a bit between support/resistance, bounce down off the channel retest to retest the broken ascending daily TL I think there's alot of pips to male this week. easy 100 or so shorting EU, heaps on UJ, 100+ shorting AU etc I'm off to bed, all the best {image} {image} {image} {image}
You see EU going down? On the weekly it looks like an inverted hammer, I am gonna look at 1,115 and 1,117 area for a reaction. 1,1175 was broken support on the quarterly.

Dangerous week anyway with FED, BOJ and RBNZ decisions.
  • #1,224
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:28am Apr 23, 2016 8:28am
Quoting ceetee
{quote} Dangerous week anyway with FED, BOJ and RBNZ decisions.
with that kind of mindset you won't be able to profit in FX markets bro. ))) Crisis is opportunity in chinese no wonder those guys went on a buying spree in 2007-08 while all investors were in hiding chinese bought up in bulk australia and canada.
  • #1,225
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:33am Apr 23, 2016 8:33am
yeah I think GNZ will go straight up pretty much, we have a strong bearish pattern in NZD USD daily which does not permit much of a pullback, also if you check out GBP USD we had a very very strong week close pretty much GU closed at week highs, this is bullish also, finally GU got more momentum and therefore will push higher into 4520 price cluster.

The only problem here is timing GU sell-off which is eminent once we hit 4520, NZD USD should be selling off much harder than GU to allow for GNZ further gains.

the rate decision ... yeah look this does in fact produce huge volatility I can't argue here. The deal though is that if you positon early you'd have room for a decent SL or move SL to BE, before rate decision Thursday GNZ can be up like 300-400 pips easy so no sweat.

Bottomline: atm I see a good setup to go long GNZ however you need to assess risk accordingly and as noted previously SL < 100 points won't work here. You can't pinpoint an entry to the pip on this one. If you don't fell good about 100 points wide SL you better ingore this completely.
  • #1,226
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:33am Apr 23, 2016 8:33am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} with that kind of mindset you won't be able to profit in FX markets bro. ))) Crisis is opportunity in chinese no wonder those guys went on a buying spree in 2007-08 while all investors were in hiding chinese bought up in bulk australia and canada.
extreme caution is necessary at least, Wednesday is the big day. You are planning on buying GA and GN or are you already in?
  • #1,227
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:36am Apr 23, 2016 8:36am
last time we had 2B setup in GNZ market moved 2000 points. Just saying. Not inferring that we will have an exact rinse and repeat, but 2B is a strong trade setup overall.
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  • #1,228
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:38am Apr 23, 2016 8:38am
Quoting ceetee
{quote} extreme caution is necessary at least, Wednesday is the big day. You are planning on buying GA and GN or are you already in?
I posted my trade plan previously. SL 100 points TP 2.16. I plan to get in on Monday depending on what we get. 2.16 is a great area for TP being the gap area.
I'm short NZD USD already and ain't scared of the rate decision. )))
  • #1,229
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:38am Apr 23, 2016 8:38am
Quoting asgcorp
yeah I think GNZ will go straight up pretty much, we have a strong bearish pattern in NZD USD daily which does not permit much of a pullback, also if you check out GBP USD we had a very very strong week close pretty much GU closed at week highs, this is bullish also, finally GU got more momentum and therefore will push higher into 4520 price cluster. The only problem here is timing GU sell-off which is eminent once we hit 4520, NZD USD should be selling off much harder than GU to allow for GNZ further gains. the rate decision ... yeah look this...
Thanks for the reply. I have been looking at the GN charts and it is possible to pinpoint the levels quite accurately. But like you said you will need a very good entry to keep your position in the rate decision. I hope 2,085 will get a touch before going higher. Don't feel comfortable buying here already after such a move. hopefully NU will move 50 pips up that will give a better entry on GN.
  • #1,230
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:47am Apr 23, 2016 8:47am
Here's my 2 cents. Have a pending Long at The green, stop at the red, take profit at the gold. Have a pending short at the red, stop at the green take profit at the gold
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Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • #1,231
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:49am Apr 23, 2016 8:49am
Quoting ceetee
{quote} Thanks for the reply. I have been looking at the GN charts and it is possible to pinpoint the levels quite accurately. But like you said you will need a very good entry to keep your position in the rate decision. I hope 2,085 will get a touch before going higher. Don't feel comfortable buying here already after such a move. hopefully NU will move 50 pips up that will give a better entry on GN.
if you look at NZDUSD weekly there is a major bearish wolfe wave setup within recent move, this is a very strong bearish signal, price will be terminated and we will push lower.
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  • #1,232
  • Apr 23, 2016 10:38am Apr 23, 2016 10:38am
Quoting ceetee
{quote} Thanks for the reply. I have been looking at the GN charts and it is possible to pinpoint the levels quite accurately. But like you said you will need a very good entry to keep your position in the rate decision. I hope 2,085 will get a touch before going higher. Don't feel comfortable buying here already after such a move. hopefully NU will move 50 pips up that will give a better entry on GN.
can't see NU trading higher than 6870 next week so it's +20 points pullback. )))
  • #1,233
  • Apr 23, 2016 1:44pm Apr 23, 2016 1:44pm
Quoting asgcorp
here it is on daily. Apologies for thread contamination. ))) {image}
I will be waiting lower , this would be a good example of a bull flag , not saying it's gonna happen but if it will I be there to ride it.
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Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #1,234
  • Apr 23, 2016 1:58pm Apr 23, 2016 1:58pm
I agree MisterG. The deal here is simple for me personally. If I can't find a decent entry / good risk reward trade / I would rather dump it all together rather than chase the trade and end up busted. GNZ ain't clear atm, it will open above DP it's strong but also ripe for a pullback so it's mixed signal.
  • #1,235
  • Apr 23, 2016 2:45pm Apr 23, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting ceetee
{quote} You see EU going down? On the weekly it looks like an inverted hammer, I am gonna look at 1,115 and 1,117 area for a reaction. 1,1175 was broken support on the quarterly. Dangerous week anyway with FED, BOJ and RBNZ decisions.
a 100 pip drop yo next fib/PA reaction zone isn't a big deal for eu
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #1,236
  • Apr 23, 2016 4:01pm Apr 23, 2016 4:01pm
Quoting MisterG
{quote} I will be waiting lower , this would be a good example of a bull flag , not saying it's gonna happen but if it will I be there to ride it. {image}
Exactly where I would also looking for a buy, would also be weekly level. The last 4 hours also formed a nice wick, so maybe down in the beginning of the week to 2,085 before the rate decision. The weekly on GN looks a bit clearer than GA in my opinion.
  • #1,237
  • Apr 23, 2016 4:02pm Apr 23, 2016 4:02pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} a 100 pip drop yo next fib/PA reaction zone isn't a big deal for eu
Do you expect an upmove from that level?
  • #1,238
  • Apr 23, 2016 4:06pm Apr 23, 2016 4:06pm
My levels for GBPNZD

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  • #1,239
  • Apr 23, 2016 5:26pm Apr 23, 2016 5:26pm
Quoting ceetee
{quote} Do you expect an upmove from that level?
1.1 looks like a good spot on the monthly to look for a reaction
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #1,240
  • Apr 24, 2016 4:45am Apr 24, 2016 4:45am
GBPAUD view.

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