Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Tuesday August 22 at 5:00 ET

USD/CHF just rose 97 pips in a corrective upwards wave and met a likely reversal point.

TS #149 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2285

Stop is 1.2324

Target #1 is 1.2100

Risk is 43 pips
Reward is 201 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.7 to 1

For research purposes only
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Tuesday August 22 at 6:15 ET

Our nearly successful GBP/USD long trade reversed only 5 pips short of our target earlier today, then fell about 105 pips in a corrective wave (and so did EUR/USD). It bottomed out so far at about 1.8890. We think that 1.8905 is a good re-entry to finish the trade up to 1.9100 or higher.

TS #148 Re-enter Buy GBP/USD at about 1.8905 or lower

Stop is 1.8879

Target is 1.9100

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Previous trade signal:

GBP/USD made a morning high of 1.8995, just 5 pips short of our trade target. We believe that it will rise again and meet our target.

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Friday August 18 at 10:30

GBP/USD just fell 92 pips in what we believe is the last swing downtrend of a complex corrective downwards wave, and also it came to a critical reversal point, a likely reversal point, of the downwards trend since August 8 according to our model.

TS #148 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8780
Stop is 1.8736
Target #1 is 1.9000
Risk is 48 pips
Reward is 216 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.9 to 1

For research purposes only

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Our method is quite good, but it is still in development. It is also quite complex, so we are not able to explain it to anyone at this time.

Also, there is a chance that even if it proves effective that it would be counter-productive for ourselves and others to reveal it, even if we can make it work for ourselves. It is very hard to learn and to put into practise. And we do not yet know how robust it is.

We are consumed now with trying to learn and develop this trading system, and any distractions or diversions such as trying to explain it to others will retard or prevent our progress.

We are employing two complex, original models, one of which is a reworked Elliott Wave Theory. We are learning and developing both analytical models, plus studying their interactions, plus inventing a trading strategy based on our current knowledge and skill level. We think that the best application if we are successful will be a signal service or managed account, rather than trying to teach this to others. There are clues in this thread, for those that are really interested.

Itme

How come you removed your 08:30 GMT+1 post re the correction on the USDCHF?

Andy

I saw it too, I even have it copied to a textfile
But I don't trade that pair....
What about cable, you got stopped out on that long, but we've seen a small breakout over the 4h candles....daily isn't broken yet, would love to hear any new thoughts on that setup when it becomes clear

Hello,


OH! I see we have the makings of a "Pied Piper". Just follow his tune children of Forex...... but make sure you pay for his service!

Sorry, but upon further consideration, the reward : risk ratio and level of confidence were not sufficient to warrant a trade signal on USD/CHF right now.

There is a chance that USD/CHF will only rise about 50 pips or less from 1.2313 and then fall again to about 1.2275 before rising strongly again.

Wednesday, August 23 at 9:00 ET

EUR/CAD rose as expected to 1.4450 one more time on August 21, which provided an opportunity to enter a short position. It has subsequently fallen to 1.4205, a 245 pip move. The 1.4150 target is still within sight.

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Previous trade signals:

EUR/CAD update for Monday August 21 - sell on a rise
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Monday August 21 9:45 ET

EUR/CAD rose higher than expected, to 1.4472, hitting our stop which was placed at 1.4455. EUR/CAD subsequently fell to 1.4406 before shooting up to 1.4466 again when disappointing Canadian retail sales data was released at 8:30 ET this morning.

Sell on a rise to 1.4450 or better, (the higher the better - less risk for more potential gain), stop must be at 1.4525, which is far away, but target is still 1.4150.

A falling USD/CAD, conjoined with a EUR/USD which will descend in a day or two, will move this cross down over the next few days.
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Friday August 18 at 12:45 ET

EUR/CAD rose 75 pips in a corrective wave to 1.14434. This new high is a good re-entry price zone for a short, as evidenced by a cluster of targetting axes.
TS #146A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4434
Stop is 1.4455
Target is 1.4150
Risk is 31 pips
Reward is 274 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1

For research purposes only
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Wednesday, August 23 at 9:00 ET

USD/CAD fell to 1.1078, 12 pips past our target this morning, completing a trade with Reward : Risk ratio of 6.5 to 1. It is still on a downwards trend, and may go a bit further down before its next retracement.

Post script: USD/CAD descended down to 1.1050, 50 pips past our target, at 10:00 ET on August 23, then bounced up about 75 pips quite quickly.

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Previous trade signals:

Friday August 18 at 12:30 ET

USD/CAD rose to 1.1260, hitting our stop which was at 1.1246. This new high is a good re-entry price zone for a short.

TS #146A Sell USD/CAD at 1.1260

Stop is 1.1281
Target is 1.1100

Risk is 24 pips
Reward is 156 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.5 to 1

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Friday August 18 at 7:45 ET
USD/CAD just rose 37 pips in a corrective upwards wave and met a probable reversal point.
TS #146 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1232
Stop is 1.1246
Target is 1.1100
Risk is 16 pips
Reward is 128 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.0 to 1

For research purposes only
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Other nice trade. Congratulations again.

Wednesday, August 23 at 10:30 ET

EUR/CAD rose as expected to 1.4450 one more time on August 21, which provided an opportunity to enter a short position. It has subsequently fallen to 1.4183, a 267 pip move. The 1.4150 target is still within sight. We recommend temporarily exiting this trade, however, as a bounce, perhaps small or large, is due at this time. Re-enter a short position when the corrective wave is finished.

" A falling USD/CAD, conjoined with a EUR/USD which will descend in a day or two, will move this cross (EURCAD) down over the next few days."

now that's an amazing call ... Good work.

What are you current thoughts on the EURJPY .. .. is this move from low of 148.74 up to 149.34 a corrective wave and has this now turned to resume the march to 147.20 ?

edit .. looks like it was .. EURJPY has resumed the downwards progression and has made new lows since the 149.34 lvl.

So, Itme, do you think that the EURCAD correction is just about played out? The short term stochastics are starting to suggest so, but I would rather hear your call

Oh - and fully accept your explanation of the USDCHF - pity I got in it!

Andy

Hi Andy,

I hope you sold at 1.4230, as you were right that the upwards movement was turning down. However, I believe that it will rise to 1.4260 from its current price of 1.4200 before it starts its next wave down to about 1.4100.

"What are you current thoughts on the EURJPY .. .. is this move from low of 148.74 up to 149.34 a corrective wave and has this now turned to resume the march to 147.20 ?

edit .. looks like it was .. EURJPY has resumed the downwards progression and has made new lows since the 149.34 lvl...."

The way I see it, EUR/JPY will bounce from its current price of 148.55 and do a corrective 5 wave set up to as low as 149.10 or as high as 149.50 before resuming its downwards path.

Update Friday August 24 at 5:00 ET

EUR/JPY rose as predicted, and appears to be ready to reverse between the current price of 149.35 and 149.50.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

Friday August 24 8:30 ET

TS# 50 Buy EUR/USD at 1.2810

Stop is 1.2788

Target is 1.2950

Risk is 24 pips

Reward is 138 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 5.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

Friday August 24 8:30 ET

TS# 51 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8920

Stop is 1.8898

Target is 1.9040

Risk is 25 pips

Reward is 117 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.7 to 1

For research purposes only.

(Posted after the fact because the forum was not functioning at the time around the 8:30 ET announcements due to excess volume of traffic.)

Friday August 24 10:30 ET

TS# 152 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1120

Stop is 1.1141

Target is 1.1010

Risk is 25 pips

Reward is 116 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.6 to 1

For research purposes only.

Friday August 24 11:00 ET

EUR/JPY rose as predicted to 149.45, then fell 74 pips this morning to 148.71. We expect it to do a corrective complex upwards wave now for the rest of the day before resuming its downwards trend, with a topside target of between 1.4915 and 149.40.
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Previous predictions:

EUR/JPY could bounce now at 148.55 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> "What are you current thoughts on the EURJPY .. .. is this move from low of 148.74 up to 149.34 a corrective wave and has this now turned to resume the march to 147.20 ?

edit .. looks like it was [img]images/smilies/smile.gif[/img] .. EURJPY has resumed the downwards progression and has made new lows since the 149.34 lvl...."

The way I see it, EUR/JPY will bounce from its current price of 148.55 and do a corrective 5 wave set up to as low as 149.10 or as high as 149.50 before resuming its downwards path.

Update Friday August 24 at 5:00 ET

EUR/JPY rose as predicted, and appears to be ready to reverse between the current price of 149.35 and 149.50.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
<!-- / message --> <!-- edit note --> <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> Last edited by itme : Today at 05:06 AM.

Friday August 24 11:15 ET

TS# 153 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2363

Stop is 1.2378

Target #1 is 1.2200

Risk is 19 pips

Reward is 159 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 8.4 to 1

For research purposes only.