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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #761
  • Apr 11, 2016 6:51am Apr 11, 2016 6:51am
Quoting manosk
Big hurdle to the upside for oil here at 40.29. If it breaks then we can see even 45.
it is broken, just needs to be sustained. but what I am asking myself is, DOHA is on Sunday so there are good 4 more days to trade excluding today. Why the rush up today unless target is to break 50 or to even crash this afterwards. With the kinds of rumors and speculating going on, charts are temporarily useless.
  • #762
  • Apr 11, 2016 6:54am Apr 11, 2016 6:54am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} it is broken, just needs to be sustained. but what I am asking myself is, DOHA is on Sunday so there are good 4 more days to trade excluding today. Why the rush up today unless target is to break 50 or to even crash this afterwards. With the kinds of rumors and speculating going on, charts are temporarily useless.
correct, it needs to be sustained in the daily time frame.
I think the whole think with Doha is buy the rumor sell the fact. Whatever comes out of there, short of outright cut in production, will not satisfy the market participants so we are likely to see a pullback. But till then we might see a nice move to the upside.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #764
  • Apr 11, 2016 11:38pm Apr 11, 2016 11:38pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} correct, it needs to be sustained in the daily time frame. I think the whole think with Doha is buy the rumor sell the fact. Whatever comes out of there, short of outright cut in production, will not satisfy the market participants so we are likely to see a pullback. But till then we might see a nice move to the upside.
Unfortunately oil didn't make the decisive move yesterday but the interesting thing is that it opened over the 200 DMA today so there is good chance that this hurdle is conquered and the upside is open.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #765
  • Apr 12, 2016 2:11am Apr 12, 2016 2:11am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Unfortunately oil didn't make the decisive move yesterday but the interesting thing is that it opened over the 200 DMA today so there is good chance that this hurdle is conquered and the upside is open.
next hurdle 41.38
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #766
  • Apr 12, 2016 12:17pm Apr 12, 2016 12:17pm
watching for signs of reversal in the 41.7 zone.
  • #767
  • Apr 13, 2016 12:40pm Apr 13, 2016 12:40pm
Inventory keeps rising along with prices.
U.S. imports are rising.
Russia, Iraq & Saudi's still pumping more than last year.
Doha meeting wont result in cuts and even with a ceiling agreement the glut isnt shrinking.
Were retesting 26 by end of 2016
  • #768
  • Apr 14, 2016 12:31am Apr 14, 2016 12:31am
Hi all

My oil prediction:
Retrace back to range 42.57 which is a "majorish" support. TP!!!
Study: MACD crossed 0 + PBA crossed 50SMA on 1hr chart

Also placed a BuyStop at 45.10
Ask and you look stupid for 5 minutes. Don't ask and stay stupid forever.
  • #769
  • Apr 15, 2016 6:22pm Apr 15, 2016 6:22pm
Hi had a nice trade on Oil closed now as it could turn out to be a retracement in current uptrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #770
  • Apr 18, 2016 3:41am Apr 18, 2016 3:41am
Wow, such a strong reaction, i didn't expect that, but i haven't followed the news too in the last 3-4 days even tho i had a short position from 42.11 with TP 40$ but thanks to the big gap downwards TP sliped 30 cents lower which was luck i admit, anyway now i still haven't caught up with latest news so i will not trade but from what i see on the chart i guess price will reach at least 41.20$ after that i am not sure so yes i will wait probably until tomorrow
  • #771
  • Apr 19, 2016 4:55am Apr 19, 2016 4:55am
I am a slightly irritated i didn't bought yesterday as i was thinking but only slightly, so today 40$ and 42.50 are the two closest resistances with 42.50 a possible sell area but dollar index tells me it might not be a perfect idea to sell oil currently
  • #772
  • Apr 19, 2016 5:01am Apr 19, 2016 5:01am
Quoting atom3
I am a slightly irritated i didn't bought yesterday as i was thinking but only slightly, so today 40$ and 42.50 are the two closest resistances with 42.50 a possible sell area but dollar index tells me it might not be a perfect idea to sell oil currently
Agreed. If one looks at the USD Index currently, selling oil and the commodities in the short term might be a bad idea.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #773
  • Apr 19, 2016 8:39am Apr 19, 2016 8:39am
I am tempted to try a short but a small one, here at 42.70
  • #774
  • Apr 19, 2016 12:36pm Apr 19, 2016 12:36pm
Quoting atom3
I am tempted to try a short but a small one, here at 42.70
Short is closed at 42.35 my initial target was 41.50 but it doesn't seem like it will going there today
  • #775
  • Apr 19, 2016 11:32pm Apr 19, 2016 11:32pm
Quoting atom3
{quote} Short is closed at 42.35 my initial target was 41.50 but it doesn't seem like it will going there today
If you had only waited a few moments more your target would of been reached. The cruel reality of trading oil!
  • #776
  • Apr 20, 2016 12:24pm Apr 20, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} If you had only waited a few moments more your target would of been reached. The cruel reality of trading oil!
Yea, well i won't regret it because it was still a profit, now i missed this big bullish run today, currently we are at 44$ and i think this is an over reaction to such a small difference in inventories a.k.a. an opportunity for a short
  • #777
  • Apr 20, 2016 2:06pm Apr 20, 2016 2:06pm
Quoting atom3
{quote} Yea, well i won't regret it because it was still a profit, now i missed this big bullish run today, currently we are at 44$ and i think this is an over reaction to such a small difference in inventories a.k.a. an opportunity for a short
I am not that expierenced enough to determine this but could it have been the contract expiry that caused the bull run up? Any ideas?
  • #778
  • Apr 20, 2016 5:04pm Apr 20, 2016 5:04pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} I am not that expierenced enough to determine this but could it have been the contract expiry that caused the bull run up? Any ideas?
I think you are right, contract expiry fueled by slightly lower than expected inventory report cased it, lets see how it continues, i have a small short open
  • #779
  • Apr 21, 2016 7:02am Apr 21, 2016 7:02am
Short is still open i will add a positive SL to it now, when i woke up today i had a nice red loss, now it's good tho my TP is 42.50 for now.
But why so few people comment here ?
  • #780
  • Apr 25, 2016 8:12am Apr 25, 2016 8:12am
I have a pending sell order at 44.40$ but looking at the market i may have missed a good selling opportunity on the other side 42.90 seems as a good buy level so i will be looking for that too
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