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The ART of trading by Petar_Serbia

  • #2,021
  • Apr 19, 2016 4:16am Apr 19, 2016 4:16am
Hello dear traders,
I am back from the business trip and I will post soon my new positions and market update. I sold Gold intraday at $1,242.00. Stay tuned for video update.

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,022
  • Apr 19, 2016 5:01am Apr 19, 2016 5:01am
Gold video analysis >

Inserted Video


Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,023
  • Apr 20, 2016 4:14am Apr 20, 2016 4:14am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Gold video analysis > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdkr...ature=youtu.be Best Regards, Petar
Hello everyone,
I took SL yesterday but today i bought GBP/USD after the news and also i bought Gold. Will post video analysis soon.

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,024
  • Apr 20, 2016 4:49am Apr 20, 2016 4:49am
While I am waiting for uploading of video on youtube I will post you picture of GBP/USD and reasons for entry >

Basically, I took 2 buying positions at 1.4385. I found strong upward trend on GBP/USD and potential bullish flag. I was waiting for news Claimant Count Change and we got 6.7K and forecast were -11.3K. This looks very bad for the UK but the price action showed us that smart money used this news to add more buying positions into an already upward trend. We got a very weak reaction from the crowd during the news and price dropped about 25 pips. Smart money reacted immediately and finally the price broke downward channel (bullish flag) in a high volume. That confirmed that we might see good bullish run. Notice the close of the bar near the top in an ultra high volume (serious sign of strength).

My fixed targets are set at the price of 1.4500 and 1.4650

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15.pngyep.png Size: 93 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,025
  • Apr 20, 2016 4:56am Apr 20, 2016 4:56am
Video update >

Inserted Video


Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,026
  • Apr 21, 2016 5:16am Apr 21, 2016 5:16am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Video update > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLK3...ature=youtu.be Best Regards, Petar
Hello traders,
I took small lose on GBP/USD from yestertday. Anyway, today is a new day and i found very interesting buying opportunity on the gold, so I bought at the price of $1,259.40.
Reasons for entry >

 

  1. Upward trend
  2. Successful breakout of trading range in a high volume (Wyckoff re-accumulation)
  3. Successful re-test of trading range and low volume test
  4. Completed some form of three drive pattern


Take profit level are set at the price of $1,279.00 and $1,300.00

Best regards,
Petar

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,027
  • Apr 21, 2016 7:50am Apr 21, 2016 7:50am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Hello traders, I took small lose on GBP/USD from yesterday. Anyway, today is a new day and I found very interesting buying opportunity on the gold, so I bought at the price of $1,259.40. Reasons for entry > Upward trend Successful breakout of trading range in a high volume (Wyckoff re-accumulation) Successful re-test of trading range and low volume test Completed some form of three drive pattern Take profit level are set at the price of $1,279.00 and $1,300.00 Best regards, Petar {image}
Finally nice runs on Gold and GBP/USD. Probably smart money was waiting for ECB decision to establish positions. It was obvious from today's price action that the only way was upward. I have GBP/USD buying position from 1.4380 (already secured on BE) and 2 positions on Gold from $1,259.00.
Weak supply (successful testing on low volume) and strong patterns in an upward trend were strong reasons for strong holders to buy large positions. Futures market also confirmed view since we got very nice testings there and almost no sellers on Gold and GBP/USD.

Now I am waiting for targets but will follow price action and maybe close earlier position. So far very good.

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,028
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:27am Apr 22, 2016 4:27am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Finally nice runs on Gold and GBP/USD. Probably smart money was waiting for ECB decision to establish positions. It was obvious from today's price action that the only way was upward. I have GBP/USD buying position from 1.4380 (already secured on BE) and 2 positions on Gold from $1,259.00. Weak supply (successful testing on low volume) and strong patterns in an upward trend were strong reasons for strong holders to buy large positions. Futures market also confirmed view since we got very nice testings there and almost no sellers on Gold...
Position closed on BE. I just saw the USD/JPY met my original TP level. It was a good setup.

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,029
  • Apr 22, 2016 5:08am Apr 22, 2016 5:08am
Hello traders,

I bought EUR/USD at the price of 1.1284. I marked chart with letters and will explain them >

a - Intraday selling climax ( a wide spread of the bar finished on the low)

b - Bullish bar in a high volume. So, if the supply is rly. strong, how the next bar finished higher. It must be that demand is still present and that sellers cant control downward pressure.

c - Now, this is a basic test of supply in a low volume. It confirmed that sellers got no power for further lower prices, which means that buying is very possible.

d - bullish bar, which confirmed a successful test

That's what I see from today's price action. I put SL about 25 pips and I am going for around 60 pips. TP around 1.1345

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,030
  • Apr 22, 2016 5:39am Apr 22, 2016 5:39am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, I bought EUR/USD at the price of 1.1284. I marked chart with letters and will explain them > a - Intraday selling climax ( a wide spread of the bar finished on the low) b - Bullish bar in a high volume. So, if the supply is rly. strong, how the next bar finished higher. It must be that demand is still present and that sellers cant control downward pressure. c - Now, this is a basic test of supply in a low volume. It confirmed that sellers got no power for further lower prices, which means that buying is very possible. d - bullish...
The counter trend trade didn't work, EUR/USD continued in an intraday downward trend. Anyway, I found NZD/USD good setup with a trend so I took 2 positions (total risk is 1%). I saw no demand bar according to the M15 time frame and we got strong downward pressure. Lets see how this will go >

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,031
  • Apr 22, 2016 7:43am Apr 22, 2016 7:43am
I bought EUR/NZD due to successful re-test of symmetrical triangle in upward trend.

Best regards,
Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,032
  • Apr 25, 2016 4:36am Apr 25, 2016 4:36am
Hello traders,
I bought GBP/CAD at the price of 1.8308. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation of each letter >

a - At point (a), we have a wide spread down on high volume, which is normally an indication of weakness (selling pressure). However, over the next few days, the market has not fallen – in fact, it is up. If the high volume is seen at point (a) had been selling, how can the market drift upwards?

b - We can observe a narrow spread of the bar in a high volume and bar finished near the top (lack of selling)
To be more accurate, there was selling at point (a), but for the market to have gone up, the selling must have been 'absorbed' by professional traders. They will only do this if they have become bullish. In this particular chart, we see the beginnings of an accumulation phase.

c - The narrow spread of the bar on an average volume finished in the middle. This bar represents no selling pressure, which is a sign that higher price is very possible.

Later on, I saw rejection from formed support point, which is a sign that sellers got no power for lower price and the buying looks very attractive.

I will try to take from 500-700 pips. Total risk on this setup is 1%.

If you like my analysis feel free to comment >


Best Regards
Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,033
  • Apr 25, 2016 5:23am Apr 25, 2016 5:23am
Hello traders,
I bought GBP/USD at the price of 1.4448 (intraday buying). I marked letters on the chart and will post explanations for each letter >
I used 30M chart for this explanation >

a - Intraday selling climax (volume spike) and the bar closed well off the lows (strength came in)

b - High volume bar but with close to the middle (high effort but weak result). Wyckoff spoke a lot of effort and result law. If there is strong effort (volume), it must be the strong result, otherwise its a warning signal. Since we got strong selling pressure in the background how the very next bar can be neutral with no further downward pressure ? It must be that professional intraday buyers stepped in and started to buy.

c - This is the hidden test of supply. The narrow spread of the bar with the volume lower then previous two bars. This is for me clear sign that today buyers are in control and that buying looks attractive. We already got in the background strong sign for strengths, this test bar was a good buy signal.

Also, the trend is upward. 20 SMA and 50 SMA are heading very well upward on multi frames. So, buying intro upward trend using volume price action analysis looks attractive.I will try to take 100-150 pips . My risk is 30 pips.

IF you like my analysis feel free to comment >

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,034
  • Apr 25, 2016 6:36am Apr 25, 2016 6:36am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, I bought GBP/USD at the price of 1.4448 (intraday buying). I marked letters on the chart and will post explanations for each letter > I used 30M chart for this explanation > a - Intraday selling climax (volume spike) and the bar closed well off the lows (strength came in) b - High volume bar but with close to the middle (high effort but weak result). Wyckoff spoke a lot of effort and result law. If there is strong effort (volume), it must be the strong result, otherwise its a warning signal. Since we got strong selling pressure in...
So far, very good. I already secured a position on BE and current plus is 40 pips. Will try to take 1:3 or 1:5. Will follow price action and then decide.

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30.pngBE.png Size: 66 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,035
  • Apr 26, 2016 5:57am Apr 26, 2016 5:57am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} So far, very good. I already secured a position on BE and current plus is 40 pips. Will try to take 1:3 or 1:5. Will follow price action and then decide. Best Regards, Petar {image}
Hello traders,
I closed GBP/USD at 1.4552 and took +105 pips (+1.5%). I closed earlier then I planned because I saw that supply came in and that there is a lack of demand around 1.4575. You never want to chase that market. The trend is still bullish but I scaled out 1.5%. Will wait for maybe another buying opportunity after correction.

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,036
  • Apr 26, 2016 9:26am Apr 26, 2016 9:26am
Hello traders,
I bought EUR/NZD at the price of 1.6418. Risk is about 50 pips and will try to take at least 1:3 RRR. I marked letters on chart and will post explanation >

a - Classic shake out. It is the bearish bar with ultra high volume (selling climax) but pay attention where the bar closed. It closed in the middle !!! If this was a smart money selling, the bars can't close in the middle. Anyway, we need successful test of supply in a low volume to confirm potential accumulation

b - Bullish bar in a high volume closing on the top. This bar happened just after the selling climax bar, which is an indication that demand is still strong and that we may see absorption later on. If there is real selling from strong holders, how the very next bar can be a bullish bar closing on the top ? Of course, smart money still interested in upward price.

c - Hidden test in a low volume. After we already saw strength in the background, low volume test was a strong buying signal.

d - Some kind of shake out but smaller one. Now, this is clear sign that buyers are in control and that higher price is very possible.

Additional notes.
I found the strong upward channel and the shake out happened on the upward diagonal (support), which confirmed even more bullish position. The trend is bullish on multi frames and it seems like a solid setup. Lets wait and see.

If you like my analysis feel free to comment >

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,037
  • Apr 27, 2016 4:46am Apr 27, 2016 4:46am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, I bought EUR/NZD at the price of 1.6418. Risk is about 50 pips and will try to take at least 1:3 RRR. I marked letters on the chart and will post explanation > a - Classic shake out. It is the bearish bar with ultra high volume (selling climax) but pay attention where the bar closed. It closed in the middle !!! If this was a smart money selling, the bars can't close in the middle. Anyway, we need the successful test of supply in a low volume to confirm potential accumulation b - Bullish bar in a high volume closing on the top. This...
Hello traders,
Good progress so far on EUR/NZD and current +95 pips. My final target is set at the price of 1.6790. Australian CPI news helped the EUR/NZD to continue higher. Anyway, today we got interest rate decision in the US and in NZ. SO, be very careful with positions and secure positons if you have.

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,038
  • Apr 27, 2016 6:51am Apr 27, 2016 6:51am
Very choppy market on majors. Today crosses perform much better. On EUR/USD there is a sign of weakness on 4H time frame but generally its very flat. Investors awaiting today news.

Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,039
  • Apr 27, 2016 2:08pm Apr 27, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Hello traders, Good progress so far on EUR/NZD and current +95 pips. My final target is set at the price of 1.6790. Australian CPI news helped the EUR/NZD to continue higher. Anyway, today we got interest rate decision in the US and in NZ. SO, be very careful with positions and secure positons if you have. Best Regards, Petar {image}
Hello everyone,
I just closed EUR/NZD and I took +1.5% or 1:3 RRR (115 pips). We will have interest rate decision soon for NZD and I don't want to chase the market. I saw that weakness has appeared so I scaled out position.

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,040
  • Apr 28, 2016 9:49am Apr 28, 2016 9:49am
Hello traders,
I took sell position on EUR/NZD at the price of 1.6300. I created video analysis and i hope you will like it

Inserted Video


Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
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