Dislikedcookie, i had light bulbs moment few days ago and i found time today to consolidate my thoughts. it started from our discussion on options as per below and also on my reading of black and scholes paper and the vol 3 market risk book by alexandra. "Hi. Jacques, what u mentioned I believe is arbitrage and hft to a certain extent. There is another mo which I have been thinking of these past few days. Its meant to work with what we have learnt in the taf thread. Let me give u an example. Let's say market is in a pullback wave, major trend is up. We...Ignored
also, the dancing mo is very important, because there is something here which can be used in conjunction with the facilitation of position accumulation for the first 1 1 2 units. we could essentially actively try to mistime our position rather than time our position well. with such an mo, for the first 4 units, we want to actively trade counter trend rather than trade with the trend, this is in order to facilitate our accumulation/distribution of position while being risk adjusted, while getting ready for the next move. so the only reason why such an mo works is because we used the dancing mo provided here, otherwise it would not have worked otherwise, the theta bleed would be too much. this itself would imply that the profits would come primarily from spot dancing, while risk adjustment is coming from options market, otherwise for inactive trading of such moves, it might be better to employ debit spreads and such, but the time factor as you mentioned could go into the months, or weeks, but keep an eye on the cost of adjustment, thats the one that bleeds the most, i had a model for long straddle too, but that one is even more inefficient than this model, so that one is already out of the picture.
so as much as the delta neutral and gamma and theta and vega management, those are essentially risk parameters to manage risk to book, thats all, if anything the terrain as well as the ability to attack stronger when market goes in your favour is what brings the money home, because the only thing that can bring money is delta and IV increase much more than theta decay for our case of long vols, but vega as a rule of thumb is in steady decay because of theta, so the only thing as u pointed out is delta, but thats wrt position greeks only, but terrain is an edge too, so is our mm skew, and so is the market's ATR for the period we are managing the position, and if you can incorporate ur opponent's move against u to give you advantage, that would be even more advantageous.
the thing is today i was wondering about market manipulation in penny stocks, it if you are facing off vs a market manipulator, what is a strong mo to employ? the dancing mo provided here, but what are its limits? your capitalization and your mm skew. but can we make a stronger case? im sure we can, what if the manipulator's moves, i can use it to my advantage, instead if just holding, can i profit from each and every move the manipulator makes? the key is in the active trading and delta neutralization of the move while the manipulator is busy pushing the market whichever way is he pushing it, it would be like heads i win, tails, i win too, if it lands at the middle, i lose the premium, but book loss is capped so not a huge problem.
one of the keys to using this mo successfully is in the terrain, as well as the way we deploy our troops, say we might buy on a scale down if we are long of 1 1 2, instead of attack 1 1 2, delibrately, what originally is not as advantageous is now perhaps providing us good opportunities, and when you are actively managing the positions, it gives u alot of opportunities. one more thing, leverage, some small leverage can be used if you have a maximum loss level no matter what happens(premium paid), options covering your position.
in a few post before, there was a link which is richard wyckoff's trading manual, now its open source material, it showed how a stock operator conducts his campaign, perhaps there is something there we can learn from it, adapted for our own use.