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Are there any successful Traders in Forex Factory?

  • #261
  • Apr 18, 2016 1:42pm Apr 18, 2016 1:42pm
I have also learn trading the hard way but am currently becoming profitable also I have blown few live accounts but I have learnt from my mistakes and become more discipline and trade less and I can say am doing great now, all a trader need is a simple trading strategy to be successful in forex trading and both greed and fear must be defeated before a trader can be profitable and the only way that than be achieved is by settings both stop loss and take profits once trades are placed and forex becomes easy as ABC as long as trader learns not to adjust both TP and SL during trades success can be guaranteed.
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  • #262
  • Edited 9:44pm Apr 18, 2016 5:34pm | Edited 9:44pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} But the logic tells me he certainly didn't built up his estate as a retail forex trader.......and that is what I am talking about.

The main issue as I see it is in the definition of what constitutes successful. To achieve a long term 'absolute' return of over 20 or so years (with manageable drawdowns from active trade management) that is say double that which standard vanilla investment approaches may bring is a big deal in my opinion....... provided that the overall positive performance is consistent and not attributable to any particular year. It might not be a big deal for the retail traders in this FF community to pull average compound returns of 10+ % for say 20+ years with tolerable drawdowns ....but therein lies the problem with the level of expectation of many in this community.

We might quibble over whether the trader is a professional trader or a retail trader, but the ability to achieve excess absolute returns alone does not necessitate a distinguishing definition between the two such as whether the returns are generated from managing other peoples money or not. Obviously to be able to trade for a living where your 'primary' income is derived from trading is a necessary condition to meet the definition of successful, hence you need to be well capitalised so that that outperformance is sufficient for you to enjoy a lifestyle as well as increase your net worth. Once again, the capitalisation requirements puts a further benchmark on the reality of trading for a living which is a problem for many retail traders expectations about the barriers to entry in this game.

We also may quibble that the criteria we are discussing insists that all this trading must be conducted in the forex space, but this therefore precludes the ability for a trader to utilise diversification measures to diversify risk and reduce portfolio correlation. Not many traders in the retail space practice this game....so...problem number three.

But yes, aside from the host of long term very successful CTA's, like effective one man bands like Dreiss Research that manage OPM and dabble in currency futures/forex as a significant component of their portfolio, there are specific examples of successful traders who trade predominantly within the forex and futures markets with a demonstrable track record from their personal trade accounts that are well known to many. Peter Brandt is one such example that shows exceptional performance from audited trading results.

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  • #263
  • Apr 18, 2016 9:22pm Apr 18, 2016 9:22pm
100% of traders are successful.The others,who not - actually,just don't understand what they are doing and love to waste their time,money and,subsequently,their lives.
Trading is a business.And,like,in real life you need to invest your time,knowledge,effort and some money into this business.If you can't-find a daily job and work for somebody who can...or you can start teaching other "traders" for a little fee's,write a "Secrets of Forex" kinda books and sell them...this is some kind of a business too.
  • #264
  • Apr 18, 2016 10:32pm Apr 18, 2016 10:32pm
Quoting saoldric
{quote} He posted an interesting pdf. Most retail traders have a higher win rate than 50%. But their r/r is off so they lose much more than they gain.
You actually don't need a high win ratio only a high profit-to-loss ratio will do just fine. Of course having a high win ratio helps but it is not mandatory but having a high profit-to-loss ratio is absolutely essential.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #265
  • Apr 18, 2016 10:43pm Apr 18, 2016 10:43pm
Quoting Mingary
There are no long term successful spot retails forex traders there never has bee and there never will.
This is the funniest thing I've read all day
  • #266
  • Apr 18, 2016 11:07pm Apr 18, 2016 11:07pm
I read the topic title and different opinions. But loosers and winners cant be decided just like that.

Mostly it depends on your Perspective. certain % profit per month is what few think successful. Making a 1000fold makes some one feel successful. Managing trades without loosing total capital. Loosing 20 trades in a row makes someone feel a loser and so on..... etc

Its all about how we feel it and how we take it. End of the day everyone need money and who makes it can feel themself as winner
Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #267
  • Apr 19, 2016 1:35am Apr 19, 2016 1:35am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} The main issue as I see it is in the definition of what constitutes successful. To achieve a long term 'absolute' return of over 20 or so years (with manageable drawdowns from active trade management) that is say double that which standard vanilla investment approaches may bring is a big deal in my opinion....... provided that the overall positive performance is consistent and not attributable to any particular year. It might not be a big deal for the retail traders in this FF community to pull average compound returns of 10+ % for say 20+...
Marvellous post. Thank you for taking the time to post, Copernicus. Your posts and generosity of sharing just get better.
Gone to a better place
  • #268
  • Apr 19, 2016 2:10am Apr 19, 2016 2:10am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Marvellous post. Thank you for taking the time to post, Copernicus. Your posts and generosity of sharing just get better.
Cheers S :-)
  • #269
  • Apr 19, 2016 2:54am Apr 19, 2016 2:54am
I will be posting my results on this thread weekly to show why planning trades are the best options to every traders. Attached is my result as at today not taking any new trades this weeks till next week before having new trades are place that's part of the trading plan am talking about.
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  • #270
  • Apr 19, 2016 3:20am Apr 19, 2016 3:20am
there is no 100% success in anything, i went through burning accounts when i first started with hotforex in 2011, would i say i am a successful trader? to be honest i have doubts, i have my flaws, im still trying to make it in this industry, but on a positive note, i am building my account through the years, from a 3 digit account now close to 5 give and take, i still tend to withdraw when needed of course, the only thing i can say i love about forex is that i am the master of my account. but another thing people will notice, not a lot of trader wouldlike to share their stats, for a very basic reason, can be too shy? or not open for criticism, but thats how it goes, and yes i can say many traders here, are just simple and quiet but have a very prosperous accounts.. they just dont brag much
  • #271
  • Apr 19, 2016 5:29am Apr 19, 2016 5:29am
35% of Forex traders are profitable

http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...-fall-profits/
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #272
  • Edited 9:59am Apr 19, 2016 8:57am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting HudithePfupf
How much do you really know about Ed Seykotas net worth and how he really earned his money?
A lot less than you, apparently, considering that you are privy to all of Ed's intimate personal and financial details such as his "main income" and that "He most likely came to the point where his risk / reward trading wasn't as good anymore so he started to move towards writing books and teaching".

Ed himself is probably oblivious to these intentions that you have attributed to him with your impeccable analysis. He probably thinks of himself as just someone enjoying his advancing age while pursuing his passions in markets, science, economic systems, music, writing, psychology and helping others. That devious snake, what a clever ruse he must be pulling to sell his damn book!
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Based on what I can find by just reading wiki
k.
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Based on what I can find by just reading wiki he was a pioneer in regards to automated trading. He started back in 1970.... that's damm pretty early and at that point of time he could have had a significant technological advantage trading commodities based on speed or statistical analysis of large amount of data for some time..... maybe this was his main edge to make money.....but what worked in the early stages of computerization got certainly diluted the more other market participants caught up.....
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that is by the way what I mean with consistent adaptation. It is an absolute must in zero or negative sum markets..... your edge, if you extract a relevant amount of money, creates a pattern in the market.....today this pattern will be found by algos and bots within a short period of time building their edge to cannibalize your profits till the point you are going to loose money.
How do you even come up with this stuff?

Ed is a position trader.

Please go read up on some basic literature for beginners if you are still confused.
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But the logic tells me he certainly didn't built up his estate as a retail forex trader.......and that is what I am talking about.
Mingary! I've found your long lost twin!
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He most likely came to the point where his risk / reward trading wasn't as good anymore so he started to move towards writing books and teaching with a significant marketing edge based on his history... and this is actually the smart way. So he most likely is a smart guy and skilled that he managed that transformation.
Brilliant. Simply brilliant. Go apply for the position of Chief Fundamental Analyst at an investment firm. You're bound to get it if you are as astute as you are now.
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So if you bring me Ed Seykota delivering a statement like: "There is consistently money to be made in retail forex in 2016 over a period of 5 years" and he delivers some proof for it
Um... Mr Seykota has probably recognised and appreciated the uncertainty and volatility that comes with trading markets long before you pranced around FF with your Mingary complex.
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Maybe it won't be a bad thing if you train yourself to keep cool.... if one gets personal calling others numbnut and looses his temper on a forum I fear he is still far away from ever becoming a succussful trader anyway...
Thank you for sharing your tip on being succussful [sic]. However, I am more than happy being and posting in a cuss-full manner. Numbnuts.
  • #273
  • Apr 19, 2016 9:07am Apr 19, 2016 9:07am
I found some, but they don't often write here. Apparently they don't have time for such fools as we are
  • #274
  • Edited 11:47pm Apr 19, 2016 11:51am | Edited 11:47pm
Quoting Ramadas
35% of Forex traders are profitable http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...-fall-profits/
It's so surprising that profitability of traders with MB Trading is so low. You would think with an ECN broker like MB Trading that even rewards you commissions for adding liquidity would allow traders to have higher profitability. It just shows not even ECN brokers are all created equal. MB Trading's traders' profitability is even lower than that of Oanda and FXCM, a firm that got fined for one-side slippages. No wonder MB Trading doesn't dare to open themselves to Canadian traders. They probably know whatever they are doing won't fly with the Canadian regulator, IIROC. LOL

Second, the fact that retail traders actually fared worse when the volatility in the market increased where short-term trading is supposed to earn higher profitability when the market is volatile just shows that just increasing volatility in the market is not enough; it needs to be coupled with something else like higher volume too. This report is showing profitability in Q4, usually the quarter with some of the lowest volume with all those prolonged holidays like Labour Day, Thanksgiving and the biggest volume killer holiday, Christmas. So you can have volatility sure but if nobody is trading, then what you have is in a period of no-activity of prices just moving 1-5 pips at a time and then all of sudden it spikes 10 or 20 pips in one candle just enough to shake you off your positions if you happen to be on the wrong side for which you wouldn't even know until the big price spikes and then the PA goes back to no-activity again so you never have any chance to gain back your losses, then yeah for sure your profitability trading in short-term will suffer. No doubt about it.

So just showing the profitability in Q4 kinda understates the profitability a bit, in my opinion simply because Q4 is not really the best month to trade for short-term trading. If we really want to see a realistic profitability report about short-term trading in forex, we should look at an average profitability report over the whole year taking into account of all the active months and slow months.

And of course one advice we take from this Q4 profitability report is: DON'T trade in all the months of Q4. If you want to trade in Q4, trade in September and October, after mid-November, it's pretty much vacation time for us. No point throwing away money that we have worked so hard to earn; we might as well take a break and enjoy ourselves a bit. All the traders from those BIG shot places are all off partying so why shouldn't we be? We have worked harder and better than them cuz we don't a) collude to exchange insider information or b) have unlimited capital or c) a guaranteed salary even after making $50 million losses. So if it's any traders, it's us who really deserve a break.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #275
  • Apr 19, 2016 12:17pm Apr 19, 2016 12:17pm
Here is Q1: http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...s-and-profits/
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #276
  • Apr 19, 2016 12:48pm Apr 19, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting Ramadas
Here is Q1: http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...s-and-profits/
And the most recent one:

http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...roved-trading/
  • #277
  • Apr 19, 2016 1:44pm Apr 19, 2016 1:44pm
An account may be profitable, but how do you know they aren't simply gambling and just got lucky. One could open a 1:100 leveraged trade, and just so happen to get lucky and make 0.5% translating to 50% return.
Quant Trader - My Blog: quantstop.blogspot (dot) com
  • #278
  • Apr 19, 2016 3:02pm Apr 19, 2016 3:02pm
Quoting aroxalot
I have some money I have earned trading FX. At first I traded with technical analysis, this got me nowhere however. Once I started trading the news, and later started employing quantitative analysis, I began making money, I have a model I deployed last night that uses machine learning to regularly optimize parameters and is regression based. It is only trading with $100 ATM however I plan to raise that to $1k then $4k.
What kind of machine learning? Can you give more detail?
  • #279
  • Apr 19, 2016 8:47pm Apr 19, 2016 8:47pm
Quoting 000
{quote} What kind of machine learning? Can you give more detail?
Genetics optimization. It is regressive as well in the sense that it forecasts future parameter best fits. I have just deployed it an hour or two ago with $1.1k on an account with oanda, however before that I tested it with $100 and it generated some 30-50 or so pips in a day.
Quant Trader - My Blog: quantstop.blogspot (dot) com
  • #280
  • Apr 20, 2016 12:15am Apr 20, 2016 12:15am
Quoting aroxalot
An account may be profitable, but how do you know they aren't simply gambling and just got lucky. One could open a 1:100 leveraged trade, and just so happen to get lucky and make 0.5% translating to 50% return.
You may be definitely right on this.
However if we look at 50+ trades that have been taken and if the result is same, chances are the person knows what he is doing and the results can be relied on.
When the going gets tough , the tough get going
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