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  • #22,681
  • Apr 13, 2016 7:32am Apr 13, 2016 7:32am
Quoting fx-anew
Hi T, that was a great analysis you have there! Hope everything is fine and good at your side Just curious on the eur/usd, will it be falling back any sooner? If its going to fall back, what are the target we should look out on? Can you give your analysis on this pair? Thanks
Hey,
All good , hope ur good too

Sure I will do it tomorrow - for now here is UC
  • #22,682
  • Apr 13, 2016 7:32am Apr 13, 2016 7:32am
The USDCAD continued to drop after a bearish breakout of the bottom triangle trend line and its exposed to more downside risks. On Apri 17 the meeting of OPEC and Russia will be held to confirm oil production cut backs. So far they have agreed to cut backs as they control 75% of world oil supply. Generally that is good for oil and oil price could keep climbing. Remember CAD is positively correlated to OIL, so OIL up CAD up too, and that means USDCAD down.
Technically we see a symmetrical triangle downside broken with 2 potential POCs. POC 1 is 1.2840-1.2855 zone (L4 previous breakout point, lowest triangle swing point, 23.6) while POC2 is 1.2910-30. (L3,38.2,lower trend line point). Target is 1.2732 and the break of 1.2732 will expose 1.2562 weekly target. I have also included a weekly chart snap shot (top right corner) that confirms my view.
Have in mind that USDCAD is generally OIL driven so any change in the fundamental view for OIL could reflect on USDCAD too. Technically it should remain below the triangle to confirm bearish bias and targets.
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  • #22,683
  • Apr 13, 2016 10:22am Apr 13, 2016 10:22am
UC going as planned

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  • #22,684
  • Apr 14, 2016 2:59am Apr 14, 2016 2:59am
UC after the analysis
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  • #22,685
  • Apr 14, 2016 4:34am Apr 14, 2016 4:34am
Japanese equities are very important for Yen movements and AUDJPY is my favorite along with USDJPY. When foreign investors buy or sell Japanese equities currency-unhedged there is a positive correlation between the Yen and Japanese equities. Translated to common words it means they buy Japanese Equities using Spot rate at the time and so if JPY appreciates / depreciates then it affects the value of the investment for foreigners. So sometimes a foreign investor can buy Japanese Stocks and hedge the JPY component. Remember -Nikkei down - AJ/UJ down too.
Technically AUDJPY is contained within a bullish pennant with strong bullish advance (marked as red rectangles). As long as the pennant holds we could see rejections from the bottom within 83.40-50 zone and a potential breakout of the pennant with 84.11 and 84.45 as targets.

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  • #22,686
  • Apr 14, 2016 5:28am Apr 14, 2016 5:28am
First target hit.

More bulls to come

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  • #22,687
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:30am Apr 14, 2016 6:30am
I'm expecting strong USD CPI data... it looks like CPI is starting to lift across the globe.
  • #22,688
  • Apr 14, 2016 9:10am Apr 14, 2016 9:10am
Quoting PariCovek
I'm expecting strong USD CPI data... it looks like CPI is starting to lift across the globe.
It failed to deliver...
  • #22,689
  • Apr 14, 2016 10:49am Apr 14, 2016 10:49am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} It failed to deliver...
Yeah, I probably failed to realise that it is typical of US to understate their CPI, they do this so it reduces their Govt Expenditures - "Many government payments, such as Social Security and the returns from TIPS, are linked to the level of the CPI; therefore, a lower CPI translates into lower payments - and lower government expenditures."
  • #22,690
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:21pm Apr 14, 2016 6:21pm
Quoting T@rantula
Japanese equities are very important for Yen movements and AUDJPY is my favorite along with USDJPY. When foreign investors buy or sell Japanese equities currency-unhedged there is a positive correlation between the Yen and Japanese equities. Translated to common words it means they buy Japanese Equities using Spot rate at the time and so if JPY appreciates / depreciates then it affects the value of the investment for foreigners. So sometimes a foreign investor can buy Japanese Stocks and hedge the JPY component. Remember -Nikkei down - AJ/UJ down...
nice analysis... particularly with the pennant set-up.
  • #22,691
  • Apr 15, 2016 9:05am Apr 15, 2016 9:05am
Quoting ThirtyTen
{quote} nice analysis... particularly with the pennant set-up.
Thanks 3010!!
  • #22,692
  • Apr 17, 2016 10:40am Apr 17, 2016 10:40am
Learn my new proprietary strategy - Heiken Ashi MTF TPS
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  • #22,693
  • Apr 18, 2016 4:23am Apr 18, 2016 4:23am
Previous Session Recap

EURUSD +30

GBPUSD +90

AUDUSD +70

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  • #22,694
  • Apr 18, 2016 5:54am Apr 18, 2016 5:54am
Hi T,

Most of the major pairs showed a gap between Fridays close and today's open. I notice that the market tends to close these gaps (as has already happened with most of the major pairs today). Am I right and why does the market close the gap?
  • #22,695
  • Apr 18, 2016 6:40am Apr 18, 2016 6:40am
Quoting woof
why does the market close the gap?
good question, interesting to me too
  • #22,696
  • Apr 18, 2016 6:47am Apr 18, 2016 6:47am
EURJPY broke below sideways chop last night when it was announced that OIL production cut back negotiations failed. There was a gap on JPY pairs and today early correction has closed most of gaps. JPY and OIL correlation links back to Risk-off sentiment, as Oil price drops, some sectors of Equities drop. So If Oil is dropping, inflation expectations would drop, which is not necessarily a good thing for Equities. In that environment risk-off prevails, and JPY gets stronger.
Technically EURJPY broke below sideways chop range (red rectangle) and if risk off sentiment prevails EURJPY could reject from POC (50.0, Doji, previous breakout point L3 ) within 122.55-70 else any breakout of 122.90 towards 123.05 zone might put the pair back into the sideways chop range. If we see a rejection 122.14 and 121.72 are targets for another bearish support retest.

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After the analysis

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  • #22,697
  • Edited 9:06am Apr 18, 2016 6:53am | Edited 9:06am
Quoting woof
Hi T, Most of the major pairs showed a gap between Fridays close and today's open. I notice that the market tends to close these gaps (as has already happened with most of the major pairs today). Am I right and why does the market close the gap?
Hi Woof

You are right. The market usually gaps on late Sunday, early Monday trading due to unexpected news. As OIL negotiations failed , OIL dropped before the market opened.

It had an effect on most JPY and CAD pairs. Now the market corrects itself as new traders and algos kick in, getting the price back into equilibrium. If Oil is dropping, inflation expectations would drop, which is not necessarily a good thing for Equities and algos need to step in to correct the price
  • #22,698
  • Apr 18, 2016 10:27am Apr 18, 2016 10:27am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Hi Woof You are right. The market usually gaps on late Sunday, early Monday trading due to unexpected news. As OIL negotiations failed , OIL dropped before the market opened. It had an effect on most JPY and CAD pairs. Now the market corrects itself as new traders and algos kick in, getting the price back into equilibrium. If Oil is dropping, inflation expectations would drop, which is not necessarily a good thing for Equities and algos need to step in to correct the price
Many thanks.
  • #22,699
  • Apr 18, 2016 1:00pm Apr 18, 2016 1:00pm
Nenad, could you tell me where I can find your Camarilla indicator? That clean looking one from your charts.
  • #22,700
  • Apr 18, 2016 1:21pm Apr 18, 2016 1:21pm
Quoting ksipsilon
Nenad, could you tell me where I can find your Camarilla indicator? That clean looking one from your charts.
it 's listed under the attachments (Pivot2.ex4)
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
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