Are there any successful Traders in Forex Factory?

best advice i can advocate is to stop looking at the individual bars in the chart and try to find a pattern to predict future moves. if you want to make this your business, then start treating it like a business.

Hello, i have been trading successfully for 8.4 years now. I do consider myself successful. I will give those starting out some tips as to what i do. Hopefully it won't make you all more confused. I started out like many of you, reading websites, watching video, installing indicators, etc......and low and behold, it got me nowhere. I eventually met a girl who was working at an investment bank and she become friends and taught me much about what i learnt in forex.

Together we worked on some simple rules to trade specific events during the year. My trades have never been more than 6 or 7 trades a year and i get about 22-38% return depending on the move. I focus my time on a few economic events for the year and try to analyse to see if there are any anomalies that might move the market. From there i go over to my charts and watch to see something usual in the market candles, and more often than not, i can see large positions being built, from here the question is to determine the which way the market will move and hence my trade secret. I'll give a small clue...it has to do with understanding liquidity.

Focus less on indicators and trading systems. I have tried alot and maybe they work for some folks, but i had no luck with them.
I started with 10 000 usd account if you are wondering.

Think a bit for yourself and don't follow blindly.

Hi All,

I have no idea about the reason for 95% loser, 5% winner.

But I would like to share my experience as a trader from past 5 years. And what i have learned over period of time from different market experts whom i have talked personally or over internet.

I changed my profession from Soft Engg. to Trader. So, Being trader initially i was pretty bad, really bad. Believed in all indicators and system people want to sell. And I believed that i will become millionaire from such trading system.
Literally wasted my 1.5 yrs believing them and always tried to understand them and get winning secret out of it. I always believed people selling all this are super intelligent and have massive knowledge to come up with all system. But nothing worked for me, so i don't care anymore if they are intelligent or not.


After 1.5 yrs, From very good resources. I got to know just understand Support & Resistance and Fibonacci and you can find success in market. I worked very hard to get best out of it and got success. With just 2 theory we can make money and find success.

Then after 1 year, I talked to some guy. He told me you cannot rely on technicals alone, you need to understand both fundamentals and technicals to become a trader. Again my journey to become a trader continue and started working on it. Then i got to know about co relation between different market and how they react to each other. Some have direct relation and some have indirect relation. There are events people/funds look forward and trade for that event. Sometimes at the event or sometimes before the event because of hope/expectation.

Also started to understand different market around the world (equity market). And co relation between different market e.g., asian , european and US markets.
How they react each day. What makes their opening good or bad. e.g. Asian market will see US market closing for its opening. And All market will follow each other.

Same way currency have co relation with this markets and funds keeps shuffling from here and there causing market to move. It is continuous process and it tend to move in particular pace and manner. And we as a trader grow our expectation to make millions from market which moves according to its pace. With these expectation we keep calculating number maybe money to earn in a week, in a month. or pips in a week, in a month. These numbers makes us to make more mistakes and give away our money to this market.

One guy told me 2 mistakes novice traders make, over-leverage and over-trading. hmmm, initially i was the one who did both things.
For Intraday : He also told me there is nothing called stop loss, never put stop loss. Understand your risk appetite and open your position in a market if you understand the market. Whenever you are in doubt get out of the market, doesn't matter if your trade is in profit or loss. If you don't understand market don't trade. Create your view, stick to you view and trade according. If your trade fails, understand why and correct your view.
He told, Do the right thing, concentrate on that. which will help you to eliminate emotions from trading.

I also learned new technical analysis like Chart Patterns, Price Action, Elliott Wave. Just to have extra edge.
Also follow few analyst whom i believe their view matters, nothing wrong in that. Just to get extra confirmation over my own personal strategy and view.

Personally I have 2 strategy to trade market, one intraday and other one is positional. And I trade everyday.

As in above post someone mentioned, treat your trading as business. He is right. We are not here for few days. We have to respect market and get along to stay forever.

Stay discipline and have patience, one can find success.

Certainly, 100% of traders in Forex Factory are successful.

People who lose are successful in getting what they want.

People who win are successful in getting what they want.

People who choose not to play are successful in getting what they want.

If you want long term profitability you only have to stick to a profitable system. The opposite is true for long term unprofitability.
This guy does just that: www.seykota.com

Though I suspect that his coaching fees would empty most people here of all their trading capital.

hahaha... you take such a simple chart to proof what you would like to see....are you a desperate recruiter of new forex victims?... sorry for being rude, but did you recognize that the period is just 3 months... you can already get the Q4/2015 data and soon the Q1/2016, so you don't have to dig out some really old stuff..... now project this loosing rate several years out, add if you like some SNB like action to it to wipe put the 0.00001% winners you theoretically still get and you will maybe finally get the right answer.....

Ok. Who is us? Looking at your trade explorer does not enlighten me to believe you don't waste your time and your money......

Very nice post. It's exactly what I do minus the Fibs and Elliot wave stuff.

That is not my trading account. If you look a little closer you will see this statement:

I suppose you will have to take my word for it. One or two here will vouch for me...

That is exactly the quintessence of retail forex: Even a so called "Market Wizard" finally ends teaching and selling books in the long run for his main income.....because selling a dream is a far better business modell than competing in a negative sum game with your own money at risk, especially if you use high leverage with gives you the disadvantage discribed as "gamblers ruin". (greetings to Jesse Livermore).

Try to find out what happend to the turtles in the long run, not just through an epic bull run in stocks.....
Some of them fell completly off the waggon and ruined their lives.... they screwed up epically.
Some of them were smart enough to start managing the money of other peoples.....
Most of them were smart enought to switch to the selling business of forex retailer dreams and sell their books, trading classes, signal services by using their legend....
An a very few just used their luck of initionally earned money to continue trade with sufficient capital and low leverage. They make a living, but it's hard earned money and the day they are no longer able to adapt a continously changing market they will give back what they took before.

There is money to be made in trading financial markets, but it is based either on a technological edge (p.e. HFT / arbitrage), manipulation (as shown by big banks who literally rigged every market they where trading in - so far prooven for gold, energy, interst rates, etc), insider knowledge on important news releases, legislation, central bank action etc. Most of it is illegal, for sure there are no low hanging fruits out there anymore....and these guys need you as a liquidity provider, in the best case as a highly leveraged retail trader.....

It is possible to make money through real investments over the long run.....as long as the underlying real companies do grow over time. Real people solve real problems or produce real products and you are getting paid for providing them capital to invest and sharing the associated risks. If a retail forex trader does not get the difference in what he is doing compared to a real investment he might finally end up at forex peace army.

So far none of you convinced me that he is able to make a living daytrading forex over a 5 year period, but this is not really surprising. Why should they read a thread called "Are there any successful traders in Forex Factory"?

Again with this "the market is constantly changing" bs. it does the same thing, it goes up and down, just some years is very volatile and some is less volatile.

- Make mind-numbingly vast sums of money from trading.
- Write two books on subjects he is passionate about.
- Form a group of associates to share experiences and offer personal coaching.
- Get mocked by some numbnut on Forex Factory.

Remarkable.

retail...can not success in forex....don t waste your time...forex is gambler

A small question : Why are you in forex? Are you institutional trader?

How much do you really know about Ed Seykotas net worth and how he really earned his money?

Based on what I can find by just reading wiki he was a pioneer in regards to automated trading. He started back in 1970.... that's damm pretty early and at that point of time he could have had a significant technological advantage trading commodities based on speed or statistical analysis of large amount of data for some time..... maybe this was his main edge to make money.....but what worked in the early stages of computerization got certainly diluted the more other market participants caught up..... that is by the way what I mean with consistent adaptation. It is an absolute must in zero or negative sum markets..... your edge, if you extract a relevant amount of money, creates a pattern in the market.....today this pattern will be found by algos and bots within a short period of time building their edge to cannibalize your profits till the point you are going to loose money.

But the logic tells me he certainly didn't built up his estate as a retail forex trader.......and that is what I am talking about. He most likely came to the point where his risk / reward trading wasn't as good anymore so he started to move towards writing books and teaching with a significant marketing edge based on his history... and this is actually the smart way. So he most likely is a smart guy and skilled that he managed that transformation.

So if you bring me Ed Seykota delivering a statement like: "There is consistently money to be made in retail forex in 2016 over a period of 5 years!" and he delivers some proof for it, I will gladly admit that I was wrong and you where right....but most likely that won't happen.

Maybe it won't be a bad thing if you train yourself to keep cool.... if one gets personal calling others numbnut and looses his temper on a forum I fear he is still far away from ever becoming a succussful trader anyway...

There are tons of hedge-fund guys, some managing billions of dollars, who state that most trading systems work for 1-2 years at most, after which they are not profitable anymore. Thus the constant research for new ones.

I have some money I have earned trading FX. At first I traded with technical analysis, this got me nowhere however. Once I started trading the news, and later started employing quantitative analysis, I began making money, I have a model I deployed last night that uses machine learning to regularly optimize parameters and is regression based. It is only trading with $100 ATM however I plan to raise that to $1k then $4k.

Looking at individual bars is the worst XD I have backtested the strategy of buying if the previous bar was an uptick, and shorting with previous bar being a downtick. The results where not to my surprise a 50% success rate. Add to that that if you trade every bar with a spread of 1.3 pips then you have an expected return each bar of -1.3 * 0.5 = -0.65 pips. On a 5 min chart thats -1,440*0.65 == -936 pips.

It's a shame someone has resorted to insults because there have been many threads on this subject in Forex factory and so often the main theme gets lost.

Most people won't do the work. That's the main problem. They quit easily and don't understand how the market works. Many others have limited capital and lose it because they are greedy and/or scared.

I notice you are eager to root out the failures and have made some quite misinformed generalizations. For these reasons alone I would guess trading is not for you.

I doubt Ed Seykota would be able to satisfy you, if only because he would never make such trite statements, so I won't try, either.

I don't think so, they're using the same stuff of 20 years ago: MA's, S/R, candlestick analysis and so on. Anyway what I mean is that the market is never flat for long, so assuming that you could exploit those movements, even in a not-so volatile market you'll always have an edge.

Well it depends on what you see as successful. I've been a full time trader for just over 3 years now and 5 years trading including demo accounts and micro accounts. I compound every month as compounding is "the eighth wonder of the world".