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Free EA - Piggy n The Middle

  • #121
  • Apr 16, 2016 3:37am Apr 16, 2016 3:37am
Quoting Carneiro
the big challenge.....
Dear All, I have made this simple indi based on Robinho Carneiro daily bar color change observations. I am posting the indicator with code so if anybody want to change it, he can modify the code. The Orange Bars indicates Bearish move and Blue Bars indicate a bullish move. Anyhow the colors can be of your choice by going into colors tab of indicator.

NOTE: I have serious reservations regarding the daily bar change because it will most often led to a false signal. Here i plot my reservations and suggestions.

(i) Most often daily bar color change will occur because of a temporary pause in a strong trend. And next day , the actual trend will resume.
(ii) The daily bar color change does matter but (a) it depends upon where the bar closes. (b) the circumstances under which the daily bar color was changed (c) The price level and time where daily bar changed color (d) The High/Low a daily bar made during that day and where it finally closes and how it closes
(iii) How the daily bar color change is related to Price Action on daily and Support and Resistances.

Since this griding idea is based on selling and buying at the same time therefore, i don't see any logic in "Predetermining" the direction of a particular pair because this is against the spirit of the whole idea. If one can determine the direction then whats the needs of this girding logic? If one can determine direction, then why not simply plot either Buy or Sell pending orders on different price levels.

Regards,
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 robinhoDailybarChange.mq4   4 KB | 641 downloads
Forex; the game of movements not the game of candles.
  • #122
  • Apr 16, 2016 3:50am Apr 16, 2016 3:50am
Quoting timmy
. So, for example, for the NZ/USD it would be about 5000pips macro range/ 90 pip Daily ATR = 56. The lower this figure the better the pair is for grid trading (or at least the way we used to grid trade). In other words the smaller the macro range relative to the daily volatility gives you the best grid trading pairs. So best pairs will have a reasonably low macro range and a good amount of daily volatility to get through the grid steps. Ok, so how to defeat the drawdown (DD) in a grid. The big gorilla in the room Firstly, Remons idea with eliminating...
That was a really interesting post Tim, thanks for that.
  • #123
  • Apr 16, 2016 4:18am Apr 16, 2016 4:18am
Quoting rabbit68
excellent ea. thanks to the creator. my only problem is my broker has max. 100 open trade limit.
Yes I was testing the EA on XM and noticed they have a 148 max open trade rule so will be trying it on another demo next week.
  • #124
  • Apr 16, 2016 4:27am Apr 16, 2016 4:27am
Quoting sajidkust
{quote}I have serious reservations regarding the daily bar change
Just as continuation to my previous post, see the attached EURAUD h4 chart. This is possible to happen on EURAUD next week. Its very possible that It may go Bullish on Monday till Next Day London Open and Then starting a bearish movement. So on Monday we may get a Bullish daily candle. According to Daily Bar color change theory ,Should i trade Long only on Tuesday? I think NOT. Why because it depends that How and where the Monday EURUAD daily will close. But drafting the possible movement next week ease your work.

Almost same is the situation on GBPAUD, GBPJPY,GBPUSD. So as a whole, we can say GBP will go bullish on Monday and then starting a Bearish movement on Tuesday in London.

Whats the point in saying all this?? Leave it as pure griding technique. Please don't involve any indicator , any predication etc. Let it be a pure griding strategy.

Next in which situation this Strategy will perform better? Till now the extensive testing and dedication of Keydcuk and MasterGuru revealed and as a general thought on different forums, griding systems will perform better in Ranging Markets. Now its upto you to find out that where a pair gonna start ranging/consolidation?
Just open the H4 charts of all pairs one by one. Note all those pairs which have recently(week) made a new low or a new high. highlight the previous high/low which was broken. The market will most probably will consolidate between these two points for a good amount of time. Target this region, set a limit that how much pips you want to extract of this region. If you get your target. Then don't be greedy. Take out your pips and run away . Sooner or later the bigger movement is gonna come. If you analyse the 28 pairs, you will most probably find 7 or 8 pairs like this. Thats enough for the week. Next week, new regions, new targets.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.png Size: 38 KB
Forex; the game of movements not the game of candles.
  • #125
  • Apr 16, 2016 5:01am Apr 16, 2016 5:01am
Quoting vmatteo23
Hi Daniel , yesterday i saw a potential problem during a little news, the ea in EURUSD have perfectly closed all buy with a profit and has left all sell trades open but on some biggest news u could have a large jump after you close and this could be potentially dangerous. I think but it's only my opinion that probably the best thing is to close after the profit reached but waiting the close of the 1MIN candle >95% of candlestick. What do you think about it ?
New is a bit of a strange thing. It can go in your favour or it can go against you. We all love it if we forgot to close out trades before NFP and all of a sudden we realize that it went in our way and we're up 200 pips. And the other way around, we can pull out hair out (if there is any left) if news goes against.

The thing is, I fully intend to have something to close all trades and also to have a proper time filter for trading hours.

Having said this, the way I trade grids, I am not concerned of news at all. A 200 pip news move can always retrace and if not can close later on in time. What is a 200 pip news spike to me? 1 or 2 extra positions open. It is insignificant in my trading with grids. Maybe one day when my bigger vision of this EA is achieved it will show more concern as I will be looking at something that can adjust grid sizes to market conditions.

Grid trading can actually be a news trader's best friend if you only trade the news event. The only thing you need to be careful is whiplash.

Daniel
  • #126
  • Apr 16, 2016 5:05am Apr 16, 2016 5:05am
Quoting rabbit68
excellent ea. thanks to the creator. my only problem is my broker has max. 100 open trade limit.
The wider the grid, the less positions open. This should not be a problem You'll be doing yourself a favour for using wide grid anyways, it will bring less DD.

In either way, if your grid size is causing you to open more than 50 trades, I think that you're playing with fire. I can only recommend as well that you study as per Tim's post what the maximum swings have been in history and then you will get an idea of what worse case scenarios could be for having positions open with relation to the size of your grid.

Daniel
  • #127
  • Apr 16, 2016 5:48am Apr 16, 2016 5:48am
I'D LIKE TO POINT OUT SOMETHING VERY IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER...

I have brought this point in Remon's thread and for those who have read it, please let this sink in. For those who have not seen it, please pay close attention.

Take Profit is not always the best way to go in the short term. The higher the Take Profit settings, this is the main problem.

Not only is it that your equity is tied up for longer periods of time while waiting for the grid to close a position but while still open, you could have missed several other opportunities to make more of the smaller TP trades. As a hypothetical example, you may have trades only 1 trade with a high TP position when with lower TP you could have taken 3-5 trades in the same period of time.

Take Profit is not linear to DD. This is the most important part of the lesson.

What I show in these 2 screenshots is an example of

  1. a 3 year backtest for a TP of 190 pips on a 200 pip step grid
  2. a 3 year backtest for a TP of 100 pips on a 200 pip step grid (median grid trading)

​Now I know some of you don't give much attention to backtesting but please for a moment, put down your prejudices and pretend that this was a live account and that every trade would have been executed the same as if it was live. (I DO STRESS NOT TO USE BACKTESTING WITH THIS FRAME OF MIND), I am only saying this to present you THE IDEA that I am trying to present.

In the first screenshot, the max DD for the 3 year period was 1167.95. You think to yourself, not bad. My 1000 account managed to grow to 2825.59 quite safely. It's not the best profits but it was safe and where else can I nearly triple an account in 3 years stress free?

This is where it is interesting due to the non linear results of lowering TP...

In the second screenshot the max DD for the same 3 year period was 605.62. The end profit result was a 1000 account with an ending balance of 2434.06

Ok, so I would have made about 400 less in a 3 year period with nearly 600 DD.

This shows 2 points

1. A smaller account could have taken profit without blowing the account
2. If you had enough money,
the 190 pip TP would have only bagged you 1825.59 of net profit.
With nearly the same amount of money to invest, you could have traded 2 x 0.01 lot positions and finished the 3 year period with a net profit of 2868.12.

Now you tell me who is and would have taken more profit?

Serious things to consider with not only this trade system but with any trade system.

Daniel

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2.png Size: 51 KB
  • #128
  • Apr 16, 2016 5:57am Apr 16, 2016 5:57am
EXPERIMENTAL VERSIONS Piggy n The Middle v4a and v4aa HAD A BUG IN IT. I HAVE UPDATED THE RELEVANT POSTS.

You can easily find them and re-download them by clicking on the paper clip in the top right of the screen where you have quick access to attachments.

Daniel
  • #129
  • Apr 16, 2016 2:37pm Apr 16, 2016 2:37pm
Quoting keydcuk
I'D LIKE TO POINT OUT SOMETHING VERY IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER
Forex; the game of movements not the game of candles.
  • #130
  • Apr 16, 2016 10:39pm Apr 16, 2016 10:39pm
I tried to test EA on MT 4 build version 950 but it seems not working and it doesn't give any error when i run strategy tester, anyone faced this error
Failure is not failure if you learn from it...
  • #131
  • Apr 17, 2016 1:19am Apr 17, 2016 1:19am
Quoting sajidkust
{quote} Just as continuation to my previous post, see the attached EURAUD h4 chart. This is possible to happen on EURAUD next week. Its very possible that It may go Bullish on Monday till Next Day London Open and Then starting a bearish movement. So on Monday we may get a Bullish daily candle. According to Daily Bar color change theory ,Should i trade Long only on Tuesday? I think NOT. Why because it depends that How and where the Monday EURUAD daily will close. But drafting the possible movement next week ease your work. Almost same is the situation...

thanks for sharing this idea. Can ypu explain more with few charts.
  • #132
  • Apr 17, 2016 3:44am Apr 17, 2016 3:44am
Yes, thanks for sharing this EA. I tested it on a real money account, on GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and USD/CAD works fine so far, made a 5.6% benefit. It started working on 6 pm, last friday, until 11pm.

It really looks goods so far. Lets see next week.
  • #133
  • Apr 17, 2016 3:51am Apr 17, 2016 3:51am
Quoting timmy
Hello Daniel and team, I very rarely post these days but do enjoy reading grid threads. I have a time/ price action based EA that I cannot share as it was built for a group of users about 5 years ago. However I feel I can discuss some of the methods used to defeat much of the draw down as they were much of my design in the first place. I am not the programmer (and cannot programme) but I have spent years - literally - thinking about grid systems, like many others. A few points to consider: 1/ Don't get drawn into using indicators - few will help...
hello timmy,

read your piece with great interest.......
are you still grid trading and if you are, what kind of return can one expect with the right parameters?
another guy who professed to be trading like that for years, claimed to make around 35% per year.

in this thread Daniel is outlining a ranging grid system, where the profit is made when the trend reverses.
I suppose the NZD/USD pair with the low MGC would make sense trading here.

the grid system in your example is a trending grid system.
I would think that a pair with a low MGC would not make sense trading here, but a pair with wide swings over time.
  • #134
  • Apr 17, 2016 4:57am Apr 17, 2016 4:57am
Quoting keydcuk
{quote} At the moment, I will make sure that my next version has a stop mechanism involved. I will try to have this sorted out for next week. I have developed my own EA and only found it worthy enough to post when I got to v4. I hope there will not be versions in triple digits LOL! I've got big plans for the next level of this EA and although it will not be using the HGI indicator, let me tell you for your own personal sneak peak and insight on this, the methods behind the HGI indicator are not so secret as they seem. I am hoping to use the same...
Hi Keydcuk,
Thank you for sharing this idea and Ea. The Ea works good, I have it backtested. The problem is just like you have been aware of: when pairs is in heavy trend with little retracement. I also agree that we may still survive the heavy trend by using 0.01 lot, increasing grid size, and tightening TP.

What I have not heard before is, regarding the HGI. Could you please brief us a bit, what HGI is capable of and how will it enhance the grid.

I also interested in "Tighten the grid in range, widen the grid in trends, drop the buy/sell position opens and only buy or only sell." Do you mind to share your plan, how will you achieve that ?
  • #135
  • Apr 17, 2016 5:22am Apr 17, 2016 5:22am
Hi Yonnie,

I am pleased you found my post interesting. I have previously traded grids live for about two years non-stop. The trouble was I did it manually and got tired of it. (It became a bit like dairy cow farming - great money but you had to be there everyday to milk the cows) . And 35% return sounds pretty well right. Maybe 25% in a bad year and ~50% in a good year.

All this talk of making 100% or 200% a year is BS. If you are able to grid that much profit - you will kill off your account - and that's 100% guaranteed for sure. Treat grid trading like a business that gives over time with good management. You make a business successful and it might make you around 40% net profit on AVERAGE per year (ie some years are better and some make less - you have to be in it for a decent period of time). Trading can give you that, and grid trading can be a very good basis to do this.

The great thing about grid trading is that you are using price action only, it is low stress - especially the way I traded them. I never worried about the news as the grid just absorbed it all and moved on. DON'T trade small steps!

In response to your other comments - Daniels grid system is a trending system as it adds sells on a down move and buys on an up move. But as it is designed currently it REQUIRES a range situation to recover its toxic trades from the other side of the move.

One way to help improve the current setup is to use skewered positions i.e. For downward opening positions open a sell for 0.1 lot and the buy trade for 0.01 and for upward opening positions open the buy trade for 0.1 lots and the sell trade for 0.01 lots (you can do this for the EA currently as it is). This will make the losses much smaller for a trend breakout - as the larger trend direction trades add more profit than the cumulative smaller trades on the other side of the trend. And I wouldn't open multiple positions- or at least limit them to several at most open at any one time on a grid step as the price action moves back into a range. Since these can build up and become a major breakout risk.

AND importantly once back into a range I'd allow the bigger trade positions that form in the new range, that are the same direction as the string of small trades that were against the initial trend breakout, to close independently from these string of smaller positions. Hence as profit builds back up in the new range you can eliminate these smaller trend-created 0.01 lot trades with a few good 0.1 lot closes. Hope that makes sense.

We could do this right now with Daniels excellent EA but it would require ongoing manual intervention from time to time as it stands.

I still prefer my trading approach which creates two positions in the same direction (using same entry mechanism as Daniels EA) leaving one to profit as the next step is hit and one to BE. This BE position is never going to be profit even if the market moves away in a strong trend leaving many of these cumulative open positions (and a massive paper profit). They become your ammunition for a smart logic process to eliminate toxic trades from the wrong side of the trend - and they act as "sea anchors" slowing the DD created by any extreme trade(s) remaining from the opposite direction to our new trend). Also when the market ranges (and as long as its not a tiny range) you will do nicely as well. (Also refer to my previous post for some of the process for this grid structure).

All food for thought....

As far as the MGC is concerned - it is irrelevant what the price pattern is like within the macro range. Just because the price has moved in an average trend of 1000 pips for the last 10 years when it has trended does not mean it won't trend for 3000 pips - assuming the macro range is that big. So the lower the MGC the better over the long time game.

cheers
Tim
  • #136
  • Apr 17, 2016 8:09am Apr 17, 2016 8:09am
Quoting yonnie
{quote} hello timmy, read your piece with great interest....... are you still grid trading and if you are, what kind of return can one expect with the right parameters? another guy who professed to be trading like that for years, claimed to make around 35% per year. in this thread Daniel is outlining a ranging grid system, where the profit is made when the trend reverses. I suppose the NZD/USD pair with the low MGC would make sense trading here. the grid system in your example is a trending grid system. I would think that a pair with a low MGC would...
I think you have misunderstood what this EA does. It takes full potential of both trending and retracement times.

The EA takes profit in the trend and kills all opposing positions in retracement at a determined profit.

This EA can easily do 35% a year.

Many Thanks & Best Regards,

Daniel
  • #137
  • Apr 17, 2016 8:17am Apr 17, 2016 8:17am
Quoting HeWee
{quote} Hi Keydcuk, Thank you for sharing this idea and Ea. The Ea works good, I have it backtested. The problem is just like you have been aware of: when pairs is in heavy trend with little retracement. I also agree that we may still survive the heavy trend by using 0.01 lot, increasing grid size, and tightening TP. What I have not heard before is, regarding the HGI. Could you please brief us a bit, what HGI is capable of and how will it enhance the grid. I also interested in "Tighten the grid in range, widen the grid in trends, drop the buy/sell...
Here, I don't want to comment too much on HGI as I will not be using the indicator itself. Having said that quickly, HGI is capable of identifying when there are long trends about to begin and when these periods finish and are about to range. I have

I have not got my head all around this yet but I am exploring the possibilities of automated grid size changing according to market conditions. It will be a slow process with this, if I can implement something like this.

I have been doing development over the weekend to something based on this idea but with no indicators. It is too soon to comment more on this as the programming is a bit complicated for me. I am backtesting what I have come up with so far to see if the methodology is working. It may or may not produce an updated version of my EA, I am not sure at this point.

As far as a plan? It is still in an experimental phase as I don't plan to make numerous updates, only 2 types, significant ones to the original and a few experimentals for mass testing.

Many Thanks & Best Regards,

Daniel
  • #138
  • Apr 17, 2016 8:23am Apr 17, 2016 8:23am
Quoting timmy
Hi Yonnie, I am pleased you found my post interesting. I have previously traded grids live for about two years non-stop. The trouble was I did it manually and got tired of it. (It became a bit like dairy cow farming - great money but you had to be there everyday to milk the cows) . And 35% return sounds pretty well right. Maybe 25% in a bad year and ~50% in a good year. All this talk of making 100% or 200% a year is BS. If you are able to grid that much profit - you will kill off your account - and that's 100% guaranteed for sure. Treat grid trading...
I've been meaning to post about some of your thoughts Tim. So far I have tested the idea of adding weighted positions on what is in the trending grid. So far the results are accurate and positive. If I double up on the sells in the downtrend and double up the buys in the uptrend, the DD is lowered more to as my original best settings.

PEOPLE: As far as modifications to this, the EA is already capable of doing this on its own. You can assign the lots traded amount individually. If you look at post 1 you will know which buys and which sells are associated to the uptrend and the downtrend.

Thanks for being here Tim, I think you are and will be a big help for grid trading with this EA.

Best Regards,

Daniel
  • #139
  • Apr 17, 2016 10:40am Apr 17, 2016 10:40am
Quoting keydcuk
{quote} I've been meaning to post about some of your thoughts Tim. So far I have tested the idea of adding weighted positions on what is in the trending grid. So far the results are accurate and positive. If I double up on the sells in the downtrend and double up the buys in the uptrend, the DD is lowered more to as my original best settings. PEOPLE: As far as modifications to this, the EA is already capable of doing this on its own. You can assign the lots traded amount individually. If you look at post 1 you will know which buys and which sells...
I'm very new to this grid idea but after reading remon's and your threads, I think I have a fairly good idea of the concept and how it all works. I like it a lot and believe it has great potential. I'm going to be starting testing today but I wanted to comment right away on the trending issue.

Just as above in your thread, MasterGuru and anazri have recommended in remon's thread to use something like envelopes to figure out when the pair starts trending. I know we are all trying to stay away from using indicators but in the end if it helps why not right? The idea is that when it moves out of the envelope you start buying only if going up and selling only when going down and then closing those trades only when we re-enter the channel. I like the idea a lot but the problem I mentioned to them on the other thread is that very often when it moves fairly quickly out of the channel it tends to retrace quite a bit as well before re-entering the channel therefore leaving you with relatively decent size losses on trades that were opened at the top.

My recommendation was to tighten the grid and TP quite a bit while outside the channel and then change them back when we re-enter the it. As we don't know for how long it will keep going up, the idea is to make smaller profits on a lot of short-live trades. We leave profit on the table due to the increase of spread it costs us, but it avoids the risk of bigger losses on bigger retracement.

We know the strategy works well in ranging periods but not so well in trending ones. The idea here is to limit the larger DDs created in the latter ones in order to reduce the risk. I think this idea does just that. Like I said, I'm new to this idea so maybe I am totally wrong. HaHa!
  • #140
  • Apr 17, 2016 3:01pm Apr 17, 2016 3:01pm
I was without internet since Friday at noon and returned now

Within the color change rules EURAUD candle it is to do nothing, because it changed cou on 08/04 and the entrance would be on 11/04 and so far only red candle closes, then we can not do anything in the EURAUD pair arespeito D1 change direction.
I always speak of D1 sail as work with it, we will need to be on PC only 01 once a day ... and we only work with LIKELY because we are not sure of anything in the forex market. But look at all 28 pairs ,,, many times when we have a change of D1 and the next candle will toward the candle that changed?
Only spoke of changes NCA direction of sailing, because everyone was talking about indicators and bla, bla bla ... if to put the indicator system, I prefer that we follow the D1 candle that changes direction, the more the system is fantastic . Only one thing I tesar this week is to change the number of pips TP ,,, will not change the grid ,,, WILL CHANGE TP TEST
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