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Let's Trade Options

  • #12,681
  • Edited Apr 13, 2016 2:19am Apr 12, 2016 9:29pm | Edited Apr 13, 2016 2:19am
Quoting The Fool
AAPL Apr/May calendar doing what it supposed to do - options ivs rising into the ER in Apr5 week, but I need AAPL to rally up to $112+ next week...paid 28c, AAPL to $112+ would probably net me $1.00 or more....need the botrun market to pick a f'in direction and stay with it...
actually looks like a hella rally to $113+ could make $1 net happen....I will take what Friday gives I spose.... this the only "earnings" trade I will likely do this cycle.

....will remember how well this worked out & be watching for post-ER IVR crashes on good names, maybe get in similar calendars (Jul/Aug) as they come available for the next cycle
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,682
  • Apr 13, 2016 4:08am Apr 13, 2016 4:08am
i DON'T have anything really to sweat for Apr opex....paid 24c for Apr IWM $113/115 bull vert calls, maybe have a chance of b/e or making some if we rally into Friday. I also have SVXY Apr $53/55 bull calls which are looking like a lost cause but we'll see.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,683
  • Apr 13, 2016 4:13am Apr 13, 2016 4:13am
Banks reporting this week, I will be watching....many are trading around 2-yr (or more) lows, will watch for earnings dips to buy cheap call spreads with good time
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,684
  • Apr 13, 2016 4:25am Apr 13, 2016 4:25am
noice I have this SPY Apr/Apr4 $210/210.5 calls diag coming off, maybe a shot at glory with a SPY rally to $209 by Friday, good return above $207....got in it for 8c and hope to net out about 35c

....I also have Apr/Apr4 SPY $212 calls calendar coming off, paid 13c, will break even if SPY finish >$208....I forget about these longshot dime trades sometimes and then (happy day) I sometimes check & see they have a chance for a good finish....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,685
  • Apr 13, 2016 9:11am Apr 13, 2016 9:11am
BTU (Peabody Coal) files for bankruptcy today.
Inserted Video

Well, Daddy won't you take me back to Muhlenberg County,
Down by the Green River, where Paradise lay?
Well, I'm sorry my son, but you're too late in asking
Mr. Peabody's coal train has hauled it away.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,686
  • Apr 13, 2016 11:12am Apr 13, 2016 11:12am
Quoting StrayDog
... So, I had add to my current bullish hedge poistions, IWM 112/112.50 and 112/113 call spreads, payed 6c and 9c for those. In case of a /ES bullish breakout...
Closed 30% (3 out of 10) of each positions, for 19 and 33 cent.
My mofo shorting mentality must close these bullish things...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,687
  • Apr 13, 2016 11:39am Apr 13, 2016 11:39am
Quoting StrayDog
My mofo shorting mentality must close these bullish things...
well, you'll never go broke taking profits all the time. I am looking at more than one trades expiring worthless soon that were in decent profit when they had more time.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,688
  • Apr 13, 2016 1:51pm Apr 13, 2016 1:51pm
Quoting The Fool
noice I have this SPY Apr/Apr4 $210/210.5 calls diag coming off, maybe a shot at glory with a SPY rally to $209 by Friday, good return above $207....got in it for 8c and hope to net out about 35c ....I also have Apr/Apr4 SPY $212 calls calendar coming off, paid 13c, will break even if SPY finish >$208....
verr nice bullish action in the indices, just need omg some real continuation into Friday......if we see SPY moving on $209 you'd have to expect VIX down to $12.50 or lower, which is what I need to make some good money on VIX Apr4 $14/$13 bear calls.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,689
  • Apr 13, 2016 3:06pm Apr 13, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}actually looks like a hella rally to $113+ could make $1 net happen....I will take what Friday gives I spose.... this the only "earnings" trade I will likely do this cycle. ....will remember how well this worked out & be watching for post-ER IVR crashes on good names, maybe get in similar calendars (Jul/Aug) as they come available for the next cycle
re: AAPL Apr/May $120 calendar calls, took off most @ $1.10, a near 3-bag net - these P/L's can squeeze a bit in the day or so before expiration, so I am happy with what I got - too bad I didn't shoot the $115's
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,690
  • Apr 13, 2016 6:21pm Apr 13, 2016 6:21pm
I filled some UVXY spreads today, Jun $41/47 for 26c - risk $26 to make $570 - big June spike gets me a 20+ baggy. Trying not to get to stoopid with these, shopping other UVXY spreads down in the under $30's even under $25's, also. Betting there will be more bargains for smart shoppers in the coming weeks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,691
  • Apr 13, 2016 7:47pm Apr 13, 2016 7:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} verr nice bullish action in the indices, just need omg some real continuation into Friday......if we see SPY moving on $209 you'd have to expect VIX down to $12.50 or lower, which is what I need to make some good money on VIX Apr4 $14/$13 bear calls.
Had to pull the trigger today on another VXX short call diagonal (Sept 13/May 18), but VIX inching closer to sub $13. Shit can happen overnight (it hasn't recently), such that VIX products gap up at open, and didn't want to miss a shot merely because I was waiting for $17.

Doha's Sunday, so that could bring fireworks to the oil complex and therefore, spoos ... . Believe it or not, there are dumbasses in TradingView that want to long /CL from here (at/near the 2016 high) on the bet that a deal will be worked out in Doha ... . Smart money says, "Not likely." (Then again, I've seen weirder shit happen).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,692
  • Apr 13, 2016 8:05pm Apr 13, 2016 8:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Had to pull the trigger today on another VXX short call diagonal (Sept 13/May 18), but VIX inching closer to sub $13.
with the ^vix cratering I am buying UVXY, VXX, VIX call spreads - out in June and maybe Sept as the volume builds in the latter. Otherwise trying to lock in profits on everything else.....thinking about putting on some pretty big long vol trades for the Summer, trying not to ack a Fool, tho....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,693
  • Apr 13, 2016 8:19pm Apr 13, 2016 8:19pm
Quoting The Fool
I filled some UVXY spreads today, Jun $41/47 for 26c - risk $26 to make $570 - big June spike gets me a 20+ baggy. Trying not to get to stoopid with these, shopping other UVXY spreads down in the under $30's even under $25's, also. Betting there will be more bargains for smart shoppers in the coming weeks.
also filled Jun UVXY bull vert calls, $36/$40 for 30c.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,694
  • Apr 14, 2016 12:54am Apr 14, 2016 12:54am
SPY >$215 by May? locura, no? hey, for a dime .....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-04-13_2250spy3.png Size: 71 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,695
  • Apr 14, 2016 2:00am Apr 14, 2016 2:00am
Quoting The Fool
SPY >$215 by May? locura, no? hey, for a dime .....
cheap to hedge
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,696
  • Apr 14, 2016 2:10am Apr 14, 2016 2:10am
gonna be a tough summer....

http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/united-states.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,697
  • Edited 12:51pm Apr 14, 2016 11:48am | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting The Fool
cheap to hedge
I filled May UVXY $41/45 bull calls for 12c....risk $12 to make max $380 ....omg 30 baggie max? Not gonna put on a lot of long vol trades for May, would rather put on a little more time and go to Jun or longer, but when I see these sick lotto tix I am like wtf? These trades are cheapcheap hedges for bullish risk index spread trades. In fact, I never put on bear put index spread trades anymore, can more effectively correlate a ^vix product trade to simulate those....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,698
  • Apr 15, 2016 6:38pm Apr 15, 2016 6:38pm
I'm liking your reward metrics on your VIX product setups better than mine, TF. I'm basically risking $400 on most of these long-dated diagonals to, I dunno, make $100 if I bail at 25% max ... . And got a good point on the bear put spreads ... . In any event, I'm basically looking to bail on these setups if we get a vol pop in here "somewhere," at which time I'll cycle back into broad market premium selling plays. Who knows how long that'll be, though:

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Some of these volatility lulls can be brutal in length ... . The important thing is to give these setups the time they may require to work out.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,699
  • Apr 15, 2016 6:43pm Apr 15, 2016 6:43pm
I didn't like doing it one bit, but went out to July for a SPY iron condor. The "local" volatility (<45DTE) for premium selling in index ETF's blows hard, but my "theta pile" isn't as big as I would like it ... .

SPY July 15th 191/194/217/220 IC, filled for a $104 credit/contract.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,700
  • Apr 15, 2016 7:16pm Apr 15, 2016 7:16pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I'm liking your reward metrics
Below P/L for all UVXY trades in one account - a mix of bull call verts and call flys, most in Jun, one trade in May one or 2 out to Sept....these trades hedge against some bullish SPY and SVXY trades, and there are some bullish VXX and VIX trades in there.....bottom line is a good ^vix pop in May-Jun will more than double the account......I am adding some Jun and Sept UVXY spreads, looking for the July/Aug chains to open....I am putting money into some accounts - I think we will see some big bear moves this year, wanna capitalize. I am looking at putting maybe $25k at risk on long vol trades, with potential to make $250k-$500k.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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