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As simple as possible: 00 level trading

  • #34,041
  • Apr 15, 2016 1:00am Apr 15, 2016 1:00am
Quoting LuXing
{quote} Good trades, except for the NJ. 1. What happened everytime PA came to the DS2 zone I circled ? It bounced up. Now, if you are so adamant taking this trade, why not take it directly when DS2 level was broken ? That would have given you a TP. 2. NJ has a daily range of 128 and when you entered, it had already dropped 95 pips. There's still room down, but after 2 consecutive H4 candles totalling 75 pips and in view of the fact that this is Frankfurt, not the highest probabilities... (potential retrace, which in hindsight it did) 3. The average...
Hi LuXing,

thank you for your analysis, it's 100% correct plus some insights I wasn't even aware of. I have xAdr on the right of my charts. The reason why I entered this trade and others is due to a compulsive behavior that makes me do irrational things. The book you advised me some posts earlier will help for sure.

Best regards,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,042
  • Apr 15, 2016 3:16am Apr 15, 2016 3:16am
Morning trade:
The only one setup I found clear to me is NzdChf during morning hours. Frankfurt looks messy in all pairs. After LO NZD stays strong as it was before FF an I look to all NZD pairs but only this one looks good for me and I set pending after LO retrece and M30 became green again.
#1 NZDCHF to TP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 124 KB

need to leave screens now, see what you will show in the evening guys! Stay GREEN and

Stay positive, MM
"All will be correctly, in this world is built" - The Master and Margarita
  • #34,043
  • Apr 15, 2016 4:30am Apr 15, 2016 4:30am
One trade today.

#1 AUDUSD to TP

Bubincka
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU-TP.jpg Size: 88 KB
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,044
  • Apr 15, 2016 6:00am Apr 15, 2016 6:00am
Second trade.

#2 CADJPY to TP

Bubincka
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CJ-TP.jpg Size: 127 KB
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,045
  • Apr 15, 2016 6:20am Apr 15, 2016 6:20am
Quoting bubincka
One trade today. #1 AUDUSD to TP Bubincka {image}
Good trade, with a couple of reservations.

1. Switch to H4 and zoom out to the max. You will see that yesterday AUDUSD printed all time highs. Specifically, the candle after NYO yesterday marked with an X. This was a US Red News reaction.
2. A part from this Red News reaction, price has been retracting every time it reached the 250 level.
3. Look at Asian session high/low. What happened when PA approached this level ? It retracted again...

It made it, but this was the reason I did not take this trade.

LuXing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 68 KB
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,046
  • Apr 15, 2016 6:25am Apr 15, 2016 6:25am
See, thing need not be that complicated ?
Today, I took 2 trades so far, same as you guys...
I will call it the day.

NZDCHF and CADJPY (entry at the BRN) to TP.

LuXing
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 101 KB
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,047
  • Apr 15, 2016 6:32am Apr 15, 2016 6:32am
Trailing stop used at 0.8 pips and still manage to get profit 1 level higher then expected.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.png Size: 64 KB
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.
  • #34,048
  • Apr 15, 2016 7:40am Apr 15, 2016 7:40am
Quoting LuXing
{quote} Good trade, with a couple of reservations. 1. Switch to H4 and zoom out to the max. You will see that yesterday AUDUSD printed all time highs. Specifically, the candle after NYO yesterday marked with an X. This was a US Red News reaction. 2. A part from this Red News reaction, price has been retracting every time it reached the 250 level. 3. Look at Asian session high/low. What happened when PA approached this level ? It retracted again... It made it, but this was the reason I did not take this trade. LuXing {image}
Hi LuXing, I had the exact same worries. For me it was more of a knee-jerk reaction when I saw PA exceed level 150. I know I must be careful to this kind of attitude that makes me take risky trades. You're right, it went well this time with a good dose of luck.

Best regards,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,049
  • Apr 15, 2016 8:16am Apr 15, 2016 8:16am
Quoting project13et
Trailing stop used at 0.8 pips and still manage to get profit 1 level higher then expected. {image} {image}
Hi project,

can you explain in details your trailing technique ?
Reading a post from you a while ago on this thread I wrote my Wukar-like EA so that after price goes 0.7 * ATR(480) on your favor, TS kicks in, and from this point on, it trails 0.2 * ATR(480). Note : ATR(480) is calculated on M15 timeframe, i.e. the one I commonly use.
Anyway, after a while I went back to my previous setup, that is fixed SL = 170 pips (borrowed from LuXing) and a dynamically adjusted TP = 0.5 ATR(480), no BE/TS.
Maybe I over complicated things and there's a easier way to do this.

Best regards,
Bubincka
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 TPSLManager_V2.mq4   18 KB | 542 downloads
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,050
  • Apr 15, 2016 10:35am Apr 15, 2016 10:35am
Quoting bubincka
{quote} Hi project, can you explain in details your trailing technique ? Reading a post from you a while ago on this thread I wrote my Wukar-like EA so that after price goes 0.7 * ATR(480) on your favor, TS kicks in, and from this point on, it trails 0.2 * ATR(480). Note : ATR(480) is calculated on M15 timeframe, i.e. the one I commonly use. Anyway, after a while I went back to my previous setup, that is fixed SL = 170 pips (borrowed from LuXing) and a dynamically adjusted TP = 0.5 ATR(480), no BE/TS. Maybe I over complicated things and there's...

I use a very simple 5 pips with 0.8 step , so when 5 pips is reach, 4.2 is secured. Then trailing every 0.1 point keeping 0.8 distance.
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.
  • #34,051
  • Apr 15, 2016 2:08pm Apr 15, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting project13et
{quote} I use a very simple 5 pips with 0.8 step , so when 5 pips is reach, 4.2 is secured. Then trailing every 0.1 point keeping 0.8 distance.
Thank you project. Can you post the EA you use along with its settings ?
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,052
  • Apr 15, 2016 10:22pm Apr 15, 2016 10:22pm
Quoting bubincka
{quote} Thank you project. Can you post the EA you use along with its settings ?
I'm also interested in an ea with this capability. Thank you. -Jason
  • #34,053
  • Apr 16, 2016 2:34am Apr 16, 2016 2:34am
Quoting bubincka
{quote} Thank you project. Can you post the EA you use along with its settings ?

It's part of a more complex private unshareable EA that includes more formula's not only SL .

I am sure the SL part ca be easy developed by anyone.
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.
  • #34,054
  • Apr 16, 2016 10:25am Apr 16, 2016 10:25am
Quoting bubincka
{quote} Hi project, can you explain in details your trailing technique ? Reading a post from you a while ago on this thread I wrote my Wukar-like EA so that after price goes 0.7 * ATR(480) on your favor, TS kicks in, and from this point on, it trails 0.2 * ATR(480). Note : ATR(480) is calculated on M15 timeframe, i.e. the one I commonly use. Anyway, after a while I went back to my previous setup, that is fixed SL = 170 pips (borrowed from LuXing) and a dynamically adjusted TP = 0.5 ATR(480), no BE/TS. Maybe I over complicated things and there's...

And when you say ATR(480) do you mean ABR 480 ? How ABR can be used in anything and result accurate thinks , is an average of M30 candles on different times of day, is the London open bar equal with 1:00 AM in the night bar? Is NOT! Then why to average them in any way ?

I know this indicator is very popular in this thread and probably lot of peoples will disagree , but if we have lot of success trades and coders why not averaging the bar's of M30 of the same hour of day, like that will get something more accurate

Project Leet
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.
  • #34,055
  • Apr 17, 2016 12:20pm Apr 17, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting project13et
{quote} And when you say ATR(480) do you mean ABR 480 ? How ABR can be used in anything and result accurate thinks , is an average of M30 candles on different times of day, is the London open bar equal with 1:00 AM in the night bar? Is NOT! Then why to average them in any way ? I know this indicator is very popular in this thread and probably lot of peoples will disagree , but if we have lot of success trades and coders why not averaging the bar's of M30 of the same hour of day, like that will get something more accurate Project Leet
Hi project,
I use ATR on M15 timerfrsame. In details :
Inserted Code
ATR = iATR(OrderSymbol(), tf, atrPeriod, 0);

As said now I use TP equal to 0.5 * ATR(480) on M15 timeframe, SL fixed at 170 pips, no trailing.
When I used the EA I attached above I used to set TP = 0.7 * ATR(480) and then if price reached this level I trailed it from this point on with a 0.2 * ATR(480).

Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,056
  • Edited 5:57pm Apr 17, 2016 5:14pm | Edited 5:57pm
Sigh.

Guys, you are focusing on the wrong things and entering the skiddie kid dungeon.
Last time I had the thread owner on the phone, he assured me that the idea was and is still scalping, not swing trading.
Scalping is the art of reading PA in its finest details and build the confidence to take a small profit out of it, as simple as possible, Fast In Fast Out, then rinse and repeat the process.
I am not a high level quant, but I master the basics (and a bit more) really well and I can tell you that the average number of pips available for scalping roughly equals the square root of time.
Put differently, if the square root of time = T16, or 16 minutes, the market will on average move 4 pips. Knowing that, its rather easy to calculate that scalping y pips will on average require your money to be in the market z minutes. Of course during news, time a major market opens, 2 major markets overlap, this might be a bit more or less but were not here to go into the nitty gritty details.
Take profit levels should be defined based on market volatility, what you are trying to do here with this trailing stop business is not FIFO, it has no statistical/quantitative finance/scientifical basis whatsoever but its pure gambling.
Regarding stoploss level, my 17 pips level is primarily a catastrophe stop and I will usually exit well before if things aren't looking right
My average actual loss is probably more 10 to 15 ticks (unless I fall asleep on my keyboard), but it rarely happens its hit.
Back to the basics: what is more important to you ?

1. The number of trades you win ?
2. The number of pips you get ?
3. The amount of money you earn ?

IMHO number 3 is the most important.
My bank manager is an idiot who understands f*** all about forex trading, but even he agrees: If live trade account Project Q2_2016 yields 50K profit in 3 months, the only thing he sees is the amount of money, not pips, not # trades, etc. Screenshot should illustrate this point (it also illustrates you should not try this at home, not just yet).

I think I am not far off by estimating the total number of Forexfactory members around the 400-500k mark.

Of those 500k:
1. 85-95% has a daytime job that pays their bills, they are roaming the forums, experimenting and hoping to find a system/strategy/indicator/EA that makes money
2. 1-5% make money, they realise the above does not exist, its the trader
3. 1-5% lose money and make it a hobby of slugging off and/or trolling group 2
Everybody should assess what group of the above they form part of would like to form part of.
If its group 2 you would like yourself to be in, I am dedicating part of my spare time to try help group 1 members become group 2.

To do so, heres my 2 cents.

Learn to read the market
This may seem easy for some people, actually it is not for most.
For most people it is friggin difficult.
Is it do-able ?
Like anything in life: yes it is.
Only few traders will master this, many will be lost on the way because they underestimate the difficulty in mastering it, many will not have enough patience to stick with it, many lose focus

Reduce your cost of business
Take two, if possible three low cost non market maker brokers with the lowest spreads and fastest execution possible. Negotiate your commissions per round turn lot (only if you trade live of course).

TP/SL
Set a take profit level according to market volatility, roughly between 4 and 8 ticks.
Youll have to figure this one out for yourself, I have given enough hints but told you the definite donts.
Monitor the (parametres of) the trade. Give it breathing room but do not be afraid to step in if things go sour and the market changes its mind. Shit happens.

Money management
With sufficient time a trader will recognise mediocre, good, excellent, top of the range setups.
Again, screenshots illustrates top o/t range setups between distractions, phone calls, etc.
Not every trade is the same and the same goes for position size.
Read up on Kelly criteria and everything other important there is to know about this subject. The Turtle Traders is a good book to start with

Hopefully enough food for thought.
Rien ne va plus, happy gambling.

LuXing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.png Size: 96 KB
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,057
  • Apr 17, 2016 9:11pm Apr 17, 2016 9:11pm
Hi All,

Would you please let me know how I can get the latest indicators and template used for the system?

Best regards
  • #34,058
  • Apr 18, 2016 3:18am Apr 18, 2016 3:18am
Quoting LuXing
Sigh. Guys, you are focusing on the wrong things and entering the skiddie kid dungeon.
Hi LuXing,

first of all let me thank you for this treaty on trading full of truth and common sense. What you have written captures the very essence of this system (and beyond) providing guidelines for its successful operation. I tried for a few weeks trailing just to test if it could be worth to be added to this trading strategy. But I abandoned it soon. I've checked that a TP equal to 0.5 * ATR(480) on M15 timeframe most of the times gives a number between 4 and 8 and when this is not the case I cut this value down to exit the trade as fast as possible with a profit.
I'm not here to argue but simply to follow who has much experience and success that me.

Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,059
  • Apr 18, 2016 9:46am Apr 18, 2016 9:46am
My trades today, LO session-

#1 AUDJPY to TP
#2 EURCAD to TP

Bubincka
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ-TP.jpg Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EC-TP.jpg Size: 126 KB
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,060
  • Apr 19, 2016 3:08am Apr 19, 2016 3:08am
#1 NZDJPY It was to early FO entrance almost caused SL... Any cents here?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 117 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 102 KB

#2 NZDUSD it was risky because of ABR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 119 KB


Stay positive, MM
"All will be correctly, in this world is built" - The Master and Margarita
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