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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #581
  • Apr 13, 2016 6:03am Apr 13, 2016 6:03am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote}image}
Update

DD running now at 8%
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #582
  • Apr 13, 2016 6:56am Apr 13, 2016 6:56am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} It was released on bloomberg about 15-20 mins before FF
I'm not sure what you are getting at...but your charts and my charts will tell you the same thing. Just before Asian session(and before ANY news) price started moving up from .7670 to .7690. Then Asian session opened and a little false selloff happened back down to .7670 and then price went back up to .7690. Then at 10pm EST when China trade data came out the bigger push up above .7700 happened. So price moved up Before and Durning both Aussie and China data. After that, it seems that sellers emerged above .7700 just like last week and we are back down around .7650. The 1hr and 4hr charts are basically just ranging between .7500-7700 at this point while the Daily chart still shows an uptrend that started in mid-January.

Cheers!
  • #583
  • Apr 13, 2016 8:49pm Apr 13, 2016 8:49pm
Only 18 minutes after seemingly very good employment data and after a spike up A/U is back testing the day's lows. Very suggestive that more downward action is coming in short term.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #584
  • Apr 14, 2016 12:17am Apr 14, 2016 12:17am
Quoting dab
Only 18 minutes after seemingly very good employment data and after a spike up A/U is back testing the day's lows. Very suggestive that more downward action is coming in short term.
Spike up, spike down, now price back up near the top of the spike higher. What's your thought now? No follow through on any selling. Perhaps just ranging or slightly bullish?
  • #585
  • Apr 14, 2016 12:44am Apr 14, 2016 12:44am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Spike up, spike down, now price back up near the top of the spike higher. What's your thought now? No follow through on any selling. Perhaps just ranging or slightly bullish?
A lot less certain! We are still 160 odd pips above the last low and only 61 pips below the high so I still have a bias to short, admittedly influenced by backing in existing positions.

I have shorts at 7702, 7685, 7634 and 7592, a long from 7626 (taken after the recent trip to 7716) and of course too many other shorts from 7209 to 7374 but with daily charts still bullish am well aware I need to stay patient on many of my positions and continue to trade smart so as to be better placed each time price revisits a level (eg price hit 7723 on 31/3 and if it had gotten there yesterday I was significantly lower negative unrealised positions). The challenge of course is managing it so I am also better off when it revisits 7500 and lower but I am largely getting the balance right.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #586
  • Apr 14, 2016 1:18am Apr 14, 2016 1:18am
The spike up we had after news went to .766 on pretty big volume, then as dab noted earlier, quickly dropped back. But the PA since has generally risen towards the peak of the spike. It seems to me that it is likely that an institutional buyer filled a large order and ate shorts when the news came out. Then backed off and let the drop occur before coming back in to buy up gradually. Oil is currently down 1.2% for the day, iron ore down 1.57 % for the day, copper down .64%, gold .99%, silver 1.59%. The USD up against Yen, EUR and CAD. AUD/USD not doing too badly today. I'm in long again from .7638 & .7646
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  • #587
  • Apr 14, 2016 5:14am Apr 14, 2016 5:14am
Quoting Blackopal
The spike up we had after news went to .766 on pretty big volume, then as dab noted earlier, quickly dropped back. But the PA since has generally risen towards the peak of the spike. It seems to me that it is likely that an institutional buyer filled a large order and ate shorts when the news came out. Then backed off and let the drop occur before coming back in to buy up gradually. Oil is currently down 1.2% for the day, iron ore down 1.57 % for the day, copper down .64%, gold .99%, silver 1.59%. The USD up against Yen, EUR and CAD. AUD/USD not...
Looks like your long has paid off as we just reached .7700 again. Great job!

Once again, trading with the trend proves to put the odds in your favor of having a winning trade. Which is the basis of my whole method. Can you make pips trading both directions? Yes, of course. But if you're struggling just to be a profitable trader...try just trading with the trend at first.

Happy Trading!
  • #588
  • Apr 14, 2016 5:27am Apr 14, 2016 5:27am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Looks like your long has paid off as we just reached .7700 again. Great job! Once again, trading with the trend proves to put the odds in your favor of having a winning trade. Which is the basis of my whole method. Can you make pips trading both directions? Yes, of course. But if you're struggling just to be a profitable trader...try just trading with the trend at first. Happy Trading!

Thanks PA. It's moved up more quickly and powerfully than I expected. Some resistance now, but I think we may see a higher high this session. I'll hold and see.
  • #589
  • Apr 14, 2016 5:39am Apr 14, 2016 5:39am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Looks like your long has paid off as we just reached .7700 again. Great job! Once again, trading with the trend proves to put the odds in your favor of having a winning trade. Which is the basis of my whole method. Can you make pips trading both directions? Yes, of course. But if you're struggling just to be a profitable trader...try just trading with the trend at first. Happy Trading!
Yeah, but the trend is down. That small spike we are looking at right now is a bump on a monthly chart.
  • #590
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:48am Apr 14, 2016 6:48am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Yeah, but the trend is down. That small spike we are looking at right now is a bump on a monthly chart.
I'm not talking about the monthly, I've said numerous times on here we have been trending up on the Daily chart since mid January. Please go back and read the thread again.
  • #591
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:28am Apr 14, 2016 7:28am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I'm not talking about the monthly, I've said numerous times on here we have been trending up on the Daily chart since mid January. Please go back and read the thread again.
So how can you say the trend is up ONLY on daily and don't care about monthly charts?
  • #592
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:35am Apr 14, 2016 7:35am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} So how can you say the trend is up ONLY on daily and don't care about monthly charts?

Because I'm a day trader who trades on the 1hr charts and using the 4hr and Daily charts as reference for trends/support/resistance areas. Monthly charts don't mean much to me. Now if I was a position trader I would use monthly charts...but I'm not a position trader. Nor am I a swing trader, which they might use monthly charts. Make more sense?
  • #593
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:50am Apr 14, 2016 7:50am
Quoting Blackopal
The spike up we had after news went to .766 on pretty big volume, then as dab noted earlier, quickly dropped back. But the PA since has generally risen towards the peak of the spike. It seems to me that it is likely that an institutional buyer filled a large order and ate shorts when the news came out. Then backed off and let the drop occur before coming back in to buy up gradually. Oil is currently down 1.2% for the day, iron ore down 1.57 % for the day, copper down .64%, gold .99%, silver 1.59%. The USD up against Yen, EUR and CAD. AUD/USD not...

Closed longs .7626 and .7615....still running up but like my Daddy said "a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush"
  • #594
  • Apr 14, 2016 7:51am Apr 14, 2016 7:51am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Because I'm a day trader who trades on the 1hr charts and using the 4hr and Daily charts as reference for trends/support/resistance areas. Monthly charts don't mean much to me. Now if I was a position trader I would use monthly charts...but I'm not a position trader. Nor am I a swing trader, which they might use monthly charts. Make more sense?
I'm a day trader myself on some systems, so that's why I was puzzled by your remark that you only care about the day trend and don't go on higher time frames.
  • #595
  • Apr 14, 2016 8:13am Apr 14, 2016 8:13am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} I'm a day trader myself on some systems, so that's why I was puzzled by your remark that you only care about the day trend and don't go on higher time frames.
So buy your own admission...you follow the monthly chart with a downtrend. And as a day trader you have been shorting Aussie for months now? Been shorting it since it was under .7000??? I can't see that being good for your account. Really my point is, as a day trader you have to draw the line somewhere on timeframes to use. And imho, the monthly is just way too high of a chart to use if you are truly a day trader just looking for 30-50pips/day.
  • #596
  • Apr 14, 2016 9:24am Apr 14, 2016 9:24am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} So buy your own admission...you follow the monthly chart with a downtrend. And as a day trader you have been shorting Aussie for months now? Been shorting it since it was under .7000??? I can't see that being good for your account. Really my point is, as a day trader you have to draw the line somewhere on timeframes to use. And imho, the monthly is just way too high of a chart to use if you are truly a day trader just looking for 30-50pips/day.
When I day trade I never take bullish trades, only shorts.
  • #597
  • Apr 14, 2016 4:22pm Apr 14, 2016 4:22pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} When I day trade I never take bullish trades, only shorts.
Never or just not at the moment whilst monthly trend is down? eg did you take bullish trades in 2011, 2012?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #598
  • Apr 14, 2016 8:15pm Apr 14, 2016 8:15pm
Pending short .7698
  • #599
  • Apr 15, 2016 1:36am Apr 15, 2016 1:36am
Quoting Blackopal
Pending short .7698

Stopped out .7726
  • #600
  • Apr 15, 2016 2:27am Apr 15, 2016 2:27am
Mortgage holders should prepare for an inevitable interest rate rise in the next six months, Australia's main finance broker organisation has warned.
Big banks are set to raise rates before the end of the year regardless of whether the Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the official cash rate, Finance Brokers Association of Australia spokesman Peter White told AAP
People with loans and those looking at investing need to be prepared, he said.
"It can be dangerous because ... they don't think about the consequence of when rates go up," Mr White said.




Although the rate rise would be gradual and most owners could handle an increase, Mr White said people need to remember cheap loans won't hang around forever.
"Lending is all about acquiring something, so you're buying a car or buying a house and they're emotional decisions - it's hard to separate it all out at times," he said.
As costs of compliance and funds take a toll on banks' bottom lines the chance of a rate rise is increasing.
"The banks have been talking about it for ages, the fact they are being squeezed on margin," he said.
"They are just going to step outside of what they RBA does."
The Bank of Queensland led the way by announcing an out of cycle home loan rate increase on April 7.
Mr White said it was a only a matter of time before more banks made the move.
"Somebody takes a leap, then the others follow," he said.
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