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USDCHF bounce long 400 pips...an idea?

  • #21
  • Apr 10, 2016 2:56pm Apr 10, 2016 2:56pm
Quoting Don96
Ive got two longs from around 0.9530 technical target 1.07xxx, although ill close one under parity, and leave the other running.... this is all provided there in no LL... which means there will be a HH
currently at 0.9521, don't pay much attention to pre market opening prices, but that's where its at
  • #22
  • Apr 11, 2016 4:35am Apr 11, 2016 4:35am
Quoting Don96
{quote} currently at 0.9521, don't pay much attention to pre market opening prices, but that's where its at
currently +67 total ​
  • #23
  • Apr 11, 2016 1:35pm Apr 11, 2016 1:35pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} currently +67 total ​
We're slowly on the rise, the burst is coming....could be this week Wednesday
  • #24
  • Apr 11, 2016 1:51pm Apr 11, 2016 1:51pm
Quoting 9jatrader
OK, do you have action on this trade? USDCHF long > 0.99. Yes. There is answer for it. What you referred me to was 12th February,2016- the strong Bullish candle. I hope am correct. Let me answer the question in numbers for clarity. 1. USING USDCHF (DAILY CHART): That movement was just the beginning of retracement and not reversal. You would observe that from 1st February to 9th February ( Daily Chart ) there was already strong bearish pressure on this pair- about 500 pips movement. For fear of loosing those pips some bearish traders would close...
You make an excellent point, indeed I am not looking for a reversal here....if happens great, but I'm shooting for a retracement to around 0.99....I think that's in the cards the moment we get consecutive positive US salary growth reports, inflation growth, anything along the lines of firing up the rate hike talk.

So what's your take on a pullback to 0.99?
  • #25
  • Apr 11, 2016 1:58pm Apr 11, 2016 1:58pm
Quoting meyoik
{quote} You make an excellent point, indeed I am not looking for a reversal here....if happens great, but I'm shooting for a retracement to around 0.99....I think that's in the cards the moment we get consecutive positive US salary growth reports, inflation growth, anything along the lines of firing up the rate hike talk. So what's your take on a pullback to 0.99?
I'll have look when back at charts, my trade was invalidated below 09515 anyway, stopped a b.e after being around +30 or whatever it was on both, ; but also consider EU and the scenario it has on that, it may have an affect - a lot of people think it's over stretched because they are used to shorting it or deep under water, I had/have a valid sell at 1.1451x which will be my last chance for a runner, after that I'm looking closer to 1.17 for lower low, UCHF isn't a usual choice of trade for me so I'll have to be back at charts to see what levels I have
  • #26
  • Edited 4:49pm Apr 11, 2016 4:39pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting meyoik
{quote} You make an excellent point, indeed I am not looking for a reversal here....if happens great, but I'm shooting for a retracement to around 0.99....I think that's in the cards the moment we get consecutive positive US salary growth reports, inflation growth, anything along the lines of firing up the rate hike talk. So what's your take on a pullback to 0.99?
One of the answers is provided by Gold chart. As I have said earlier February Bullish setup was too strong on Gold chart. Monthly setup makes longer trend than the daily & weekly. Though monthly setup takes longer time to materialised also. Also the bearish pressure on the weekly on USDCHF was also strong. The setup was before now stopped by Bollinger Middle Band. Such barrier is over for now, and price already below BMB. Not only that. Last weekly candle suseccessfully closed below Bollinger Lower Band, indicating seriousness to go down further. This is the first time bearish candle closed below Bollinger Lower Band since 11th January, 2015. My TP is 0.9148, except Fundamentals change the game & I will close the positions manually. EURUSD is trapped below resistance. There is higher probability that it breaks above this resistance, no doubt. AUDUSD is really obeying Gold setup. Am also using Gold to monitor it. Anytime it retraces I bring out Fibonacci
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -49.2%
  • #27
  • Apr 12, 2016 7:06am Apr 12, 2016 7:06am
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} One of the answers is provided by Gold chart. As I have said earlier February Bullish setup was too strong on Gold chart. Monthly setup makes longer trend than the daily & weekly. Though monthly setup takes longer time to materialised also. Also the bearish pressure on the weekly on USDCHF was also strong. The setup was before now stopped by Bollinger Middle Band. Such barrier is over for now, and price already below BMB. Not only that. Last weekly candle suseccessfully closed below Bollinger Lower Band, indicating seriousness to go down...
Just a thought, but maybe it's easier for everybody reading this thread -including me- if you would show examples, charts with your notes explaining what you mean.
  • #28
  • Apr 12, 2016 8:39am Apr 12, 2016 8:39am
I have never succeeded in downloading my chart in any forum to explain myself. The only video I was able to watch online on how to download my chart and send did not show clear information. If only you are able to direct me I will be pleased to send my chart. But in absence of that you can download Gold/ Oil chart chart from the brokers that have them. Gold and Oil Bullish setup is still doing well. I hope you know that just we use Gold to trade AUDUSD, USDCHE & EURUSD, Oil chart is used to trade USDCAD. When Oil is Bullish USDCAD will be bearish - negative correlation. This's because strong Oil price helps Canadian Dollar.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -49.2%
  • #29
  • Apr 12, 2016 8:46am Apr 12, 2016 8:46am
Quoting 9jatrader
I have never succeeded in downloading my chart in any forum to explain myself.
If you do not have the ability to save a picture of your chart from your trading platform, you can do a screen capture by clicking "Print Screen" on your keyboard. Then open up Paint and click on Paste. It should appear. Then click on Select, use your mouse to highlight what part of the screen you want to post, click on "crop", save it to your computer, open a post, click Upload From Computer, find the pic, and attach it to your post.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #30
  • Edited 9:05am Apr 12, 2016 8:49am | Edited 9:05am
USDCHF on a tear today, 100+ pips !!

Weekly high broken, currently at 0.9575...yes, its only Tuesday, but we have had few HH in this pair for a while, and this looks like a nice prelude to tomorrow...the relevance being it may mean the bulls are waking up...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF1.png Size: 23 KB


Is this THE bounce ...doubt it, the real bounce imho would come tomorrow after US numbers. Today is nice, but direction we'll get tomorrow :nerd::

Attached Image
  • #31
  • Apr 12, 2016 8:55am Apr 12, 2016 8:55am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} If you do not have the ability to save a picture of your chart from your trading platform, you can do a screen capture by clicking "Print Screen" on your keyboard. Then open up Paint and click on Paste. It should appear. Then click on Select, use your mouse to highlight what part of the screen you want to post, click on "crop", save it to your computer, open a post, click Upload From Computer, find the pic, and attach it to your post.
I will try it.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -49.2%
  • #32
  • Apr 12, 2016 8:58am Apr 12, 2016 8:58am
[quote=meyoik;8868578]USDCHF on a tear today, 100+ pips !! {image} Is this THE bounce ...doubt it, the real bounce imho would come tomorrow after US numbers. Today is nice, but direction we'll get tomorrow
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -49.2%
  • #33
  • Apr 12, 2016 9:01am Apr 12, 2016 9:01am
[quote=meyoik;8868578]USDCHF on a tear today, 100+ pips !! Weekly high broken, currently at 0.9575...yes, its only Tuesday, but we have had HH in this pair for a while, and this looks like a nice prelude to tomorrow...it may mean the bulls are waking up... {image} Is this THE bounce
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -49.2%
  • #34
  • Apr 12, 2016 9:08am Apr 12, 2016 9:08am
@ Meyoik: What time frame is the chart you uploaded on USDCHF?
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -49.2%
  • #35
  • Apr 12, 2016 10:10am Apr 12, 2016 10:10am
Quoting 9jatrader
@ Meyoik: What time frame is the chart you uploaded on USDCHF?
That was the M1 chart
  • #36
  • Apr 12, 2016 11:24am Apr 12, 2016 11:24am
Ok. Assuming you use Bollinger Band, you would observe that last monthly candle closed little below Middle Band.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -49.2%
  • #37
  • Apr 12, 2016 11:43am Apr 12, 2016 11:43am
[quote=..the relevance being it may mean the bulls are waking up... {image} ... :nerd:: {image}[/quote]

It may be difficult for Bulls AUDUSD is doing its excellent work. Except strong Fundamental changes this bearish move. You would observe that market did not react to last NFP report. NFP seems to be loosing ground. Fed is sounding more dovish this day. Fed's Officials fear global economic weakness, especially China.I will still hold on. If it retraces I bring out Fibonacci. My SL is far
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -49.2%
  • #38
  • Edited Apr 13, 2016 7:10am Apr 12, 2016 12:11pm | Edited Apr 13, 2016 7:10am
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} You would observe that market did not react to last NFP report. NFP seems to be loosing ground. Fed is sounding more dovish this day.
NFP is not what is being scrutinized at the moment. The Fed has mentioned repeatedly they have practically met all their employment targets. They are now looking at wage increase, inflation, and global risk. Anything ringing positive numbers in related categories should set the stage for *a start* of some rate hike talk.

Bad numbers on the other hand, the franc could have a rough time holding up, next support point will be at ~0.94800
  • #39
  • Apr 12, 2016 12:19pm Apr 12, 2016 12:19pm
I just use NFP as an exmple. Fed Raised interest rate not too long ago, but USD still weak
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -49.2%
  • #40
  • Edited 7:09am Apr 13, 2016 5:27am | Edited 7:09am
Yesterday we had some weekly HHs, and today we have a new HH, approaching the monthly HH fast. Industrial production from the EU was reported lower than expected and that has given the dollar a big boost. USDCHF has now broken the 0.96 level and climbing

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF4.png Size: 53 KB



This is very positive news ahead of US numbers today. Whatever happens, I think that after today's surge, we can safely say 0.9500 would act as strong support.

So far so good....now, let's see those US figures
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