EURJPY retracing to 150.00, anybody on this ticket?

I've been following the EURJPY pair the last weeks, and I think the pair presents some interesting signs for a retracement to around the 150.00 area, currently at ~123.00. If you've been following the news, the BOJ is turning up the volume on possible action being initiated if the yen continues appreciating at its current pace. Another important element for the appreciation of the yen has been risk aversion, which was initially sparked by the China slowdown. If you go by the published Chinese numbers, yes I know but just roll with it, we can at least conclude that the downwards spiral has stopped and that we are entering a possible China bounce. The US is not doing that bad, and neither is Europe. Even oil is stabilizing, and there has been more talk of oil hitting 40s than 20s the last couple of weeks. Point being, risk aversion might have peaked, and soon those risk aversion cover buys, will start to get cashed in.

If you look at the monthly chart:



You can see that we are about to enter an area that has shown a lot of long entry interest, I've marked this in the chart as the possible bounce zone towards the ~150.00 level. If the EURJPY would miss this chance to retrace, you are looking at nothing solid (a small ripple @ ~104.00 perhaps) in terms of indicators/resistance stopping an abysmal fall towards 92.00 - and I don't think anybody wants that, especially the BoJ. If there's going to be a nudge coming at any point between now and the yen crashing towards 92.00, its best shot seems to be that bounce zone starting around the 120.90 level.



Any surges might spark some heavy duty profit taking at and nearing every pivot point until we get around 149.00 - 150.00...after that, all bets are off, we'd need to recalibrate the analysis once we get there.

If I look at the yen's favorite indicator on the monthly, I see our cloud thinning out, and the outer resistance markers look ever closer. The fast moving average is still bullish, but not as committed as it has the previous weeks. I see the possibility of a reversal as long as we get a strong driving force wanting to appreciate the yen:



Anybody have EURJPY retracing to 150.00 in their radar?

when do you want to go long on that pair and hold it untill 150.00?

I would be looking at a retracement that starts as early as that bounce zone upper border @ 120.9...from here, I'll be trying to grab on a singal that confirms the (re)direction as "long", until we get to around 150.00....back to the drawing board after this point.

You could have a set up that has that 122.50 as a stop loss.

If we're lucky we have an early bounce , it seems to have bottomed out at 122.50 on the H1:



Depending on the indicators you follow, if they are lining up, this could be a good moment to enter with a [email protected] --> [email protected].

Based on medium-term PA and pscyhological levels, you'd need U/J back up to 120ish and E/U at 1.22+ to get E/J of 150. Is that possible??

Even though I believe in psychological levels, I don't have them weighing to heavy on this one. Psychological levels play a bigger role when there's an absence of stronger factors. In this case you'd have psychological levels vs a central bank + some of the biggest exporters in the world; I think the latter will be the major driving force if this trade is to take off.