(binned per thread starter’s request) Truth in Trading

[quote=BubaYaga;8865611]Alright, I think this chart may be ok. USDCHF On the weekly, we're currently in a preferred buy zone established by a BuLBC back in October. {image} The daily has an BeLBC back on the 10th of March - giving potential target area.. (if sl is put at 0.9465 the R:R is not bad) Now at first sight it might seem there isn't a potential reversal candlestick (& of course, today's is far from completion*). But if we combine the Sunday Candle with Monday Candle* I think potential Bullish Engulfer may be forming. - I think combining Sunday candle with Monday may be acceptable as it's just Early Asian Monday session anyway. {image}[/quote

I agree with current price being in a pretty good supply zone. Am wondering though about the target though - not to dispute your opinion, but to ask if the BeLBC from a few weeks ago (week starting Mar. 27th) might be a nearer resistance zone? If so, this would affect the R:R. Appreciate your thoughts on this.

dear Winston
thanks for your system and bring it up for everybody here in FF.
i have read your pdf file about your system you are using now for live trading, but i did not really understand the entry point, in other words when we have to trig and enter for long or short trades.
if there is a possibility can you please explain more clear about entry points ?
ill be thankful for all hard works you have done so far.
best regards
fred

Words can often confuse. To be more accurate we need to identify Weekly LBCs closest to current PA. Therefore the LBC may in fact not be recent.

Hi dmostpips, On the chart my broker gives me, the weekly candle you refer to has a body size of about 200 pips, the week before that (starting March 20) had a body size of around 90 pips, & the weekly before that (starting March 13) had a body of around 130 pips. 90+130=>200 by about 20 pips.
But, depending when your broker opens and closes candles each day will effect the weekly candles body size to some degree no doubt.

the USDCHF candle didn't close the way I'd of liked yesterday anyway..

I had buy limit on NZDUSD and sell limit EURGBP. Neither filled. NzdUsd is the trade I closed before last weekend.

​I've cancelled both orders

Hi winston ,your thought process is very much in line with my own ,I hope this thread is very popular ,while higher TF is a hard sell for some reason ,
but then much more reliable
Regards
Tony

could well be a sell up and coming ,could wait nice h4

Agreed. Nice charts Bones

This is a post from a follower of James 16:
"Hi Winston,
Your OP says to contact you via PM so i will. I applaud you for your stance on the BS commercials, well done. I will be following/learning from your TIT thread so thanks but not contributing as i'm not high impact. I admit that i am/have been a regular contributor to the James16 thread because that's where my fx journey began 7 months ago, although i am drifting away from them as i have no real clue to their credentials/truthfullness tbh.
Now i know that your thread and system is not here to make money but when i found it and read it up and down, side to side, the first thing i wanted and expected to see was your system results, say via Trade Explorer. I can't disguise the fact that (i believe) anyone starting a thread about their system (whether for profit or not) should automatically and at the very least expose their % results of that system (not their financials). After all, an established high impact member such as yourself could have quite an influence especially on newbies. I don't want to be confrontational or discouraging or negative but it was very disappointing to not see your TE. Perhaps i'm being to harsh but i know i'm not the only one who feels that way, just wanted you to be aware. I hope your thread is enormously successful and i look forward to following it."

This was the last post from the trader above on the James 16 thread. I think it highlights some important reasons why many traders consistently lose:

"On a side note, just wanted to point out some rookie mistakes i have made this week in an attempt to help others here. I have firmly come crashing back down to earth this week having given back, in monetary terms, half of my gains from last week.
Some of my rookie errors:
- getting into trades/addons waaaay to early, without proper PA confirmation (greed). ​Wait for the candle too close. Some candles are not good enough to enter a trade. Sometimes you must wait for another one.
- not having my SL's in the appropriate place, way to aggressive at times. ​The appropriate place can be difficult but in weekly/daily trading you need to give room for the trade and although unpopular you need to be able to endure some draw-down.
- taking trades based on 1 minute of analysis, so not analysing and planning out each one before taking them (impulse trading). ​Trading weekly/daily will almost negate this problem.
- revenge trading (not even on the pair i lost on, just picking any pair) having no regard for my system, no real plan, no common sense, just relying on a fair chunk of blind luck. Couldn't have said it better myself.
- basically going against my system/rules, only ticking 2 or 3 of the 5 boxes. Sheesh!

It all comes down to fear and greed. Trading emotionally sux.

Although i still have a few lingering trades going from this ordinary start to the week, i have drawn a line in the sand and will start again, this time with some common sense.

UsdJpy formed a nice BeLBC last week. Yet we have entered BuLBC. I am inclined to sell in the BuLBC preferred entry zone rather than buy in the BuLBC preferred entry zone unless there is a compelling bullish daily candle signal.

UsdChf opposing LBC's. A suitable buy candle would have room to move.

Hi Winston,

Refer to your post #109 for GBPJPY Weekly chart, I can see there are 2 BuLBC there which still valid, but you are using the BuLBC 1 as your Buy Zone instead of BuLBC 2 (still valid as so far no weekly candle close below the Low of the BuLBC), just wanted to clarify my understanding is correct as per the rules.

NZDCAD;
Weekly BeLBC which dived into the Weekly Support created by the Weekly BuLBC (2015Nov30)

Daily chart; price hovering within the Weekly Support since 2016Mac09, and we have a daily BuLBC on 2016Mac17 which is still valid. On 2016Apr08 a BeLBC formed within the Weekly Support, follow by 2 "bearish rejection candle" in the Weekly Support.

Is it good to sell ?

Strictly per the rules you are right. However I cannot deny the large BuLBC below is very impressive and not too far away. It is actually acting like a magnet attracting price action towards it. Currently there is a large BeLBC where price has entered. the BeLBC too me is far more important than the diminuitive LBCs you are pointing out..

I don't trade this pair. An exotic as far as I'm concerned but it illustrates some good points. First the weekly shows a very strong BuLBC to the left where price is currently. But price did form a BeLBC last week. In comparison the BuLBC is much larger and for me has more force when I make a decision to trade. The daily chart shows a bullish enfulf occurred on March 23 and was the best trade so far in this area. Today's PA shows a high-wave spinning top with a bearish close. To me this is a non signal daily candle and I wouldn't enter a trade based on it. Price is trapped between the BuLBC and the BeLBC but again I give more weight to the BuLBC and would be looking for nice daily signal candle to get long.

I'm long UsdJpy. We are currently in a weekly BuLBC and there are two bullish candle exceeding the prior 2 day bearish candles. My target is the pink rectangle above. Not that far.

I am also long UsdChf with a similar scenario as the UsdJpy trade above.

Hi Winston, I agree, greed and fear are the biggest problems in trading. One question: why you took the usdchf trade as well as the usdjpy trade? I don't see any clear and good PA like pinbar, hammer, engulfing doji etc.....Thank you mateKind regardsBen

Thanks a lot, Winston that is what I wanted to know, your flow of thought when analysing the chart/signal...