USDCHF bounce long 400 pips...an idea? | Forex Factory

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USDCHF bounce long 400 pips...an idea?

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 8, 2016 5:13pm Apr 8, 2016 5:13pm
I've been following the fall of the USDCHF (more than 500 pips) throughout the month of March on the H4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The main driver of this fall is presumably the hope the markets have lost on any US interest rate hikes in April. Having said that, the FED minutes came out this week, and they showed some -albeit mild- intention to not close the door on June. If you consider what 2 wage increase reports in a row could do to expectations of a hike... All sorts of rumors would fire off, expectations would grow, and we could see the Franc use that momentum to retrace to a more comfortable 0.98 - 0.99 range:

This is the H4:
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This is the same range in the D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDchf2.jpg Size: 141 KB


To think that the US will present good numbers in the near future is not far fetched at all, if anything, the weaker dollar would have helped the exports, and foreign sales in Q1.

Anybody looking at the USDCHF from this angle?
  • #2
  • Apr 9, 2016 5:08am Apr 9, 2016 5:08am
Yes sir, I completely agree with your views albeit I am in a much cheaper trade of EURUSD short.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #3
  • Apr 9, 2016 6:02am Apr 9, 2016 6:02am
Ive got two longs from around 0.9530 technical target 1.07xxx, although ill close one under parity, and leave the other running.... this is all provided there in no LL... which means there will be a HH
  • #4
  • Apr 9, 2016 6:20am Apr 9, 2016 6:20am
Quoting Don96
Ive got two longs from around 0.9530 technical target 1.07xxx, although ill close one under parity, and leave the other running.... this is all provided there in no LL... which means there will be a HH
where are your stops or don't you use any
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #5
  • Apr 9, 2016 6:32am Apr 9, 2016 6:32am
Quoting pips29
{quote} where are your stops or don't you use any
​0.9510 and 0.9515, betting on a HH provided that last HL towards end of 2015 isn't taken out
  • #6
  • Apr 9, 2016 6:36am Apr 9, 2016 6:36am
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​0.9510 and 0.9515, betting on a HH provided that last HL towards end of 2015 isn't taken out
I must say those are very tight stops. Gl
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #7
  • Apr 9, 2016 6:41am Apr 9, 2016 6:41am
Quoting pips29
{quote} I must say those are very tight stops. Gl
​indeed, they could get stopped, cost me 1% total for both, if they come off then will be a big win, obviously will take a while, also i will probably close some to cover stops 165 pips first place to close partial perhaps, ill see how PA is, might not survive a gap, but thanks anyway
  • #8
  • Apr 9, 2016 6:55am Apr 9, 2016 6:55am
Quoting Don96
Ive got two longs from around 0.9530 technical target 1.07xxx, although ill close one under parity, and leave the other running.... this is all provided there in no LL... which means there will be a HH
Wow 1.07 !! That's waaay out there, and I thought I was going long with 0.99 - 0.98 ....I think this is a trade for the patient, sooner or later the US will report good consecutive reports, and voila! Lift off!
  • #9
  • Apr 9, 2016 6:59am Apr 9, 2016 6:59am
Quoting meyoik
{quote} Wow 1.07 !! That's waaay out there, and I thought I was going long with 0.99 - 0.98 ....I think this is a trade for the patient, sooner or later the US will report good consecutive reports, and voila! Lift off!
you are in long as well. May I know where your stop is
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10
  • Apr 9, 2016 7:03am Apr 9, 2016 7:03am
Quoting pips29
{quote} you are in long as well. May I know where your stop is
I am aiming at 1.0100, but will be watching intensely from .09850
  • #11
  • Apr 9, 2016 7:05am Apr 9, 2016 7:05am
Quoting meyoik
{quote} Wow 1.07 !! That's waaay out there, and I thought I was going long with 0.99 - 0.98 ....I think this is a trade for the patient, sooner or later the US will report good consecutive reports, and voila! Lift off!
yeah its a technical target, i probably wont hold that long, not on both anyway. also GC has a good op to long for me here..., IF GC drops to there, and USD gets stronger, I'm hoping it will give me a good opportunity to also go long on GU as that could fall, again on that ill be betting on a HH instead of a LL. technically It could all fit, the highest targets may become invalid, but could still get more than a few hundred on all 3 pairs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12
  • Apr 9, 2016 7:15am Apr 9, 2016 7:15am
Quoting Don96
{quote} yeah its a technical target, i probably wont hold that long, not on both anyway. also GC has a good op to long for me here..., IF GC drops to there, and USD gets stronger, I'm hoping it will give me a good opportunity to also go long on GU as that could fall, again on that ill be betting on a HH instead of a LL. technically It could all fit, the highest targets may become invalid, but could still get more than a few hundred on all 3 pairs {image}
If I'm honest, GA also looked perfect for a long, I posted in the swamp about it, someone gave me the idea, I think top is in for AU, posted in AU thread or live trades thread. perhaps GBP will start to recover? judging by the reaction after Boris said hed be voting out, currency market take it as a good thing that they UK stay in EU... if that's the outcome then GBP should shoot? take all with a pinch of salt - I'm most likely wrong so don't base any ideas on this
  • #13
  • Apr 9, 2016 7:15am Apr 9, 2016 7:15am
Quoting meyoik
{quote} I am aiming at 1.0100, but will be watching intensely from .09850
no stop. You are so confident it will go up. Gl
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #14
  • Apr 9, 2016 7:16am Apr 9, 2016 7:16am
Quoting Don96
{quote} yeah its a technical target, i probably wont hold that long, not on both anyway. also GC has a good op to long for me here..., IF GC drops to there, and USD gets stronger, I'm hoping it will give me a good opportunity to also go long on GU as that could fall, again on that ill be betting on a HH instead of a LL. technically It could all fit, the highest targets may become invalid, but could still get more than a few hundred on all 3 pairs {image}
US rate hike expectations rising already, so the bounce to those targets could start as early as next week:
“....ISM surveys point to a rebound, an improvement that could be sustained if upbeat “production” and “new orders” components are a guide....”
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...1-ad93f4f601c6
  • #15
  • Apr 9, 2016 7:18am Apr 9, 2016 7:18am
Quoting meyoik
{quote} US rate hike expectations rising already, so the bounce to those targets could start as early as next week: ....ISM surveys point to a rebound, an improvement that could be sustained if upbeat production and new orders components are a guide.... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...1-ad93f4f601c6
also US number have been improving recently, and all news is cyclical, I think everything for US is weighing on rate hike
  • #16
  • Apr 9, 2016 7:23am Apr 9, 2016 7:23am
Quoting Don96
{quote} also US number have been improving recently, and all news is cyclical, I think everything for US is weighing on rate hike
....and we're all set for the party !!
  • #17
  • Apr 9, 2016 7:27am Apr 9, 2016 7:27am
Quoting meyoik
{quote} ....and we're all set for the party !!
expect the unexpected
  • #18
  • Apr 9, 2016 9:31am Apr 9, 2016 9:31am
Hello Fellow friends. USDCHE is strongly obeying the setup on Gold chart. Be reminded that Gold chart is used to trade AUDUSD, USDCHF & EURUSD. AUDUSD: Australia is a major exporter of Gold, and weakness/strenghth of Gold price affect AUDUSD. On Gold chart February Bullish Candle strongly closed above Bollinger Middle Band. This gives strong setup on Gold, which positively affect AUD. For USDCHF: Gold price also affect CHF. When Gold price is strenghtened CHF is strenghtened in relation to USD.This is because Gold is one of Swiss foreign reserves. EURUSD: EURUSD is negatively correlated with USDCHF. Last month, march formed doji on Gold chart and not even strong to retest Bolliger Middle Band. That has helped me to still leave my postions open on those pairs. I hope these information helps you. As for EURUSD, long setup is trapped below resistance and it will surely break above this resistance. Yesterday bullish candle on EURUSD can attest to it .If you still have any question, let me know.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -47.1%
  • #19
  • Apr 9, 2016 4:42pm Apr 9, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting 9jatrader
Hello Fellow friends. USDCHE is strongly obeying the setup on Gold chart. Be reminded that Gold chart is used to trade AUDUSD, USDCHF & EURUSD. AUDUSD: Australia is a major exporter of Gold, and weakness/strenghth of Gold price affect AUDUSD. On Gold chart February Bullish Candle strongly closed above Bollinger Middle Band. This gives strong setup on Gold, which positively affect AUD. For USDCHF: Gold price also affect CHF. When Gold price is strenghtened CHF is strenghtened in relation to USD.This is because Gold is one of Swiss foreign reserves....
OK, do you have action on this trade? USDCHF long -> 0.99
  • #20
  • Apr 10, 2016 9:12am Apr 10, 2016 9:12am
OK, do you have action on this trade? USDCHF long > 0.99.







Yes. There is answer for it. What you referred me to was 12th February,2016- the strong Bullish candle. I hope am correct. Let me answer the question in numbers for clarity.
1. USING USDCHF (DAILY CHART): That movement was just the beginning of retracement and not reversal. You would observe that from 1st February to 9th February ( Daily Chart ) there was already strong bearish pressure on this pair- about 500 pips movement. For fear of loosing those pips some bearish traders would close their position for profit taking, and wait to get in againg. This is where strong retracement comes about. Traders should be aware that strong retracement follows strong movement. Just check any pair. This is where Fibonacci Retracement/Extension becomes relevant. If you use Fibonacci, you would observe that during strong retracement no candle was able to close above 61.8%- which means the trend would continue.
2. USING USDCHF (WEEKLY CHART): There were already strong Bearish Engulfing
Patterns on 22nd & 29th November 2015 and 24th & 31st January, 2016 which have not completed there work; the setups were stopped by
Bollinger Middle Band. You can use multiple time(monthly,weekly & daily) to time your entry,while you trade on daily chart.
3.USING GOLD ( WEEKLY CHART ): This is probably the most important point you're waiting for. Before the day you refrred me to 12th February,there were already very strong Bullish movement on 24th, 31st January & 7th February ( 7th candle closed above weekly resistance and above Bollinger Upper Band, which signals the seriousness of the Bullish movement.
4. USING GOLD (DAILY CHART): You would observe that uptrend has been so strong on daily from 4th January -most candles moved along Bollinger Upper Band. I hope this helps you & not complicated. Forex trading intrument/tools/indicators should be simlify, but not "OVER" simplify. If you able to do this analyses over the weekend/end of the day you enter a trade without fear. Any other thing in mind or other pairs let me know. Wish you happy trading to all
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -47.1%
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