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The Swamp

  • #2,961
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:45pm Apr 8, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​just tried an EJ long, not optimistic, just a little double bottom, stop at 123.27
Some retrace on Sunday before more DOWN
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #2,962
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:49pm Apr 8, 2016 2:49pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Some retrace on Sunday before more DOWN
​perhaps, don't like 4H for longs, closed my initial out for +100, then second out at b.e, UJ looks more down to me, not sure about EU haven't really been paying attention to it
  • #2,963
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:54pm Apr 8, 2016 2:54pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​perhaps, don't like 4H for longs, closed my initial out for +100, then second out at b.e, UJ looks more down to me, not sure about EU haven't really been paying attention to it
Will close if goes below 108.100
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #2,964
  • Apr 8, 2016 3:06pm Apr 8, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Will close if goes below 108.100
​my usual broker posted 123.271 just, the one i have the trade with posted 123.282 :s
  • #2,965
  • Edited 3:30pm Apr 8, 2016 3:09pm | Edited 3:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} see the db march.. basically if oil does not go higher that db should hold. knowing we may be wrong, we limit our longs to the db. below that db is a db break. using 2967 1/4 (london) close to help with sentiment based on close side. a small setup has developed for higher as long as that march low held.. its a calculated risk.. not a sure thing. brent 56.xx norm could still screw me,, pulling the cad lower. brent has a valid 14.xx target. like i said its a calculated risk. at 1300 it was a 1 to 4 r/r/ at 2967 its better.. at 2857 r/r is...
Agreed. Short all the way down, but (although I am greedy) only going for small targets, in and out. Nervous holding shorts because old habits die hard for BOJ. Easy to get burnt, and will get extra cautious around 100. Thing is the closer it gets to those levels, the sharper the spikes, both ways.

Daily UJ looking to close flat on NY candle, closing UJ short, nice gain, have a good weekend all (time to run some numbers). Oh, I also took that uchf long, much upside, low downside (good call imo).
  • #2,966
  • Apr 8, 2016 3:57pm Apr 8, 2016 3:57pm
Quoting nonlinear
{quote} Agreed. Short all the way down, but (although I am greedy) only going for small targets, in and out. Nervous holding shorts because old habits die hard for BOJ. Easy to get burnt, and will get extra cautious around 100. Thing is the closer it gets to those levels, the sharper the spikes, both ways. Daily UJ looking to close flat on NY candle, closing UJ short, nice gain, have a good weekend all (time to run some numbers). Oh, I also took that uchf long, much upside, low downside (good call imo).
i hope your understanding, pulling the cad lower. means usd/cad would go higher. oil is priced in usd. when oil drops. the cad heavily weighted on oil and other commodities. cad weakens toward the usd as oil drops most of the time.
cad has nothing to do with boj

if oil drops and yen is still strengthening/ cad/jpy may be a better short verse uj..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #2,967
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:02pm Apr 8, 2016 4:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eu on the same page with that roll above 113.93, but bullish for eu..
Right on the line
  • #2,968
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:10pm Apr 8, 2016 4:10pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Right on the line
1391.5 to me.. slightly lower. keep in mind its still above 1388 as was london.. that's bullish to me. it went below and came back to close above. uj still bearish to me..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #2,969
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:28pm Apr 8, 2016 4:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1391.5 to me.. slightly lower. keep in mind its still above 1388 as was london.. that's bullish to me. it went below and came back to close above. uj still bearish to me..
Yup just checked oanda acct which closed at 97. I left my eu longs open for the wknd. Mostly just once again impressed with your ability to feel those levels across all tf. Recent action may or may not be a good example but reading older posts you describe the importance of getting the "personality" of the pair. I guess I'm trying to focus on that cuz I can see in real time how that advantage helps you with entries, exits, hold or fold decisions.
  • #2,970
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:31pm Apr 8, 2016 4:31pm
Waters warming up. They are calling. Good weekend all.
Attached Image
  • #2,971
  • Apr 8, 2016 5:17pm Apr 8, 2016 5:17pm
Gator or someone else

I have had a look at the weekly chart of GN and GA, it looks like inverted hammers on both. GN even has what looks like an inverted hammer on the monthly and quarterly.

The levels it is making these inverted hammers is also interesting. Do you have something there that is pointing to a reversal? I don't know what the trigger could be because GU looks very bearish and the incertainty of the brexit doesn't help things. So I guess this might not be the reversal pattern it looks like...
  • #2,972
  • Edited 6:19pm Apr 8, 2016 6:06pm | Edited 6:19pm
Quoting ceetee
Gator or someone else I have had a look at the weekly chart of GN and GA, it looks like inverted hammers on both. GN even has what looks like an inverted hammer on the monthly and quarterly. The levels it is making these inverted hammers is also interesting. Do you have something there that is pointing to a reversal? I don't know what the trigger could be because GU looks very bearish and the incertainty of the brexit doesn't help things. So I guess this might not be the reversal pattern it looks like...
​GA on weekly not sure how strong that inverted hammer is, wick isn't big enough for me, (although subjective). 1.8509x is 1/4 from July 2014 swing to high, that same level was also a good level to go long for 1.90880... i don't usually trade GA but if you'd said this earlier id have been thanking you

Edyraper shorted a few pages back, don't have his levels not looked that much into it as i said i don't trade GA, he may reply for you

Also AUD influenced by copper, this may help... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ch...-idUSKCN0X40EW
  • #2,973
  • Apr 8, 2016 7:19pm Apr 8, 2016 7:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i hope your understanding, pulling the cad lower. means usd/cad would go higher. oil is priced in usd. when oil drops. the cad heavily weighted on oil and other commodities. cad weakens toward the usd as oil drops most of the time. cad has nothing to do with boj if oil drops and yen is still strengthening/ cad/jpy may be a better short verse uj..
Yep, got you here. I am really unsure on where oil is going though, but looking for opportunities in all jpy crosses generally.
  • #2,974
  • Apr 9, 2016 2:02am Apr 9, 2016 2:02am
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​GA on weekly not sure how strong that inverted hammer is, wick isn't big enough for me, (although subjective). 1.8509x is 1/4 from July 2014 swing to high, that same level was also a good level to go long for 1.90880... i don't usually trade GA but if you'd said this earlier id have been thanking you Edyraper shorted a few pages back, don't have his levels not looked that much into it as i said i don't trade GA, he may reply for you Also AUD influenced by copper, this may help... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ch...-idUSKCN0X40EW...
Thanks for the reply. GA and GN or somewhat correlated, the wick on GN is a lot bigger, next wick unemployement numbers again for Australia, that could be a trigger. Also looks like AN could also still fall a bit. But with oil on the rise again, difficult to see GA rising since AUD is also correlated with oil if I am correct. But it is the first green weekly candle in 8 weeks, so if it goes up, could be a 1000-pip move, same with GN is already a 5000-pip fall.
  • #2,975
  • Apr 9, 2016 2:15am Apr 9, 2016 2:15am
Quoting Avir
Its been a good week for me, hope you all had a good one too. Have a smashing weekend guys leave you with this one - raving this weekend with my old school https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHVJVQzHv5Q
I like that one, thanks for sharing
  • #2,976
  • Apr 9, 2016 9:06am Apr 9, 2016 9:06am
Quoting goosebone
Waters warming up. They are calling. Good weekend all. {image}
Nice tarpoon ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #2,977
  • Apr 9, 2016 10:40am Apr 9, 2016 10:40am
Quoting Don96
GA weekly chart 1 hourly chart 2 GCHF daily chart 3 UCHF Daily chart 4 If UC goes up (perhaps supported by Kens chart weekly on EU?) Aud weaker than GBP... (could support AU shorts) so pound long at 1/4? GA long? GU long if GU gets lower?? don't know if that made it any clearer Pharm0r... but yeah {image} {image} {image} {image}
Too complicated

Just remember this;

GBPUSD ÷ AUDUSD = GBPAUD
GBPAUD x AUDUSD = GBPUSD
GBPAUD ÷ GBPUSD = AUDUSD

You need to have good understanding of AUDUSD and GBPUSD to trade GBPAUD

Same goes to GBPCHF and EURCHF
  • #2,978
  • Apr 9, 2016 10:46am Apr 9, 2016 10:46am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Too complicated Just remember this; GBPUSD AUDUSD = GBPAUD GBPAUD x AUDUSD = GBPUSD GBPAUD GBPUSD = AUDUSD You need to have good understanding of AUDUSD and GBPUSD to trade GBPAUD Same goes to GBPCHF and EURCHF
yeah so if USD gains, AU down and GU down... if Aud weakens more than GBP GA up... CHF weakens UCFH+GCHF? i haven't actually taken the GA trade, i would have
taken it if i saw it earlier but​

Does what i wrote make sense to you or not? as in the charts?
  • #2,979
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:31am Apr 9, 2016 11:31am
Agree with Ken A, too complicated. You're trying to fit too many variables imo

but for the sake of it- what you are proposing is entering GA and GU @ 1/4 or 3/4 (depending on chart)? If so- where is your stop and tp?

and why

put on chart please
  • #2,980
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:54am Apr 9, 2016 11:54am
Possible scenario

GU H1
Attached Image
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
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