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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #21,401
  • Apr 8, 2016 12:32am Apr 8, 2016 12:32am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hell, what is she smoking? If the economy is not in a bubble, and it is solid, why the damn fear to rise the rates or to get rid of the FED's "nice" one sided balance book? Lightning should strike them all........


19 Facts That Prove Things In America Are Worse Than They Were Six Months Ago
  • #21,402
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:05am Apr 8, 2016 2:05am
Yuri on UJ

https://twitter.com/Mell7054/status/718294086801862656
  • #21,403
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:31am Apr 8, 2016 2:31am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} sp500 83% bulls nasdaq 80% DXY 30% EU 74% UJ 92% (wow, price should go lower) GU 15% (the danger here is, in my view, that we are about to enter a third of a third down, and the crowd could be right) VIX 12% and dropping (huge move in SP500 ahead?)
I was trading options professionally, and I can tell you VIX can go very low and stay there for quite some time. Also let's not forget where UJ is coming from...80s. So yes there is some room to go. The point with indices, and that is a realization after many years in the market, is that you cannot fight the central banks. And the central banks will not let the market plunge too much. Of course it is overbought. Look where it was in march 2009 and where it is now. But beyond little corrections I do not forsee a big plunge.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,404
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:36am Apr 8, 2016 2:36am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hell, what is she smoking? If the economy is not in a bubble, and it is solid, why the damn fear to rise the rates or to get rid of the FED's "nice" one sided balance book? Lightning should strike them all........
you know why she says all that stuff? She is planning on weakening the USD, similar to what the US did in 2009 to stimulate the US economy...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,405
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:46am Apr 8, 2016 2:46am
Quoting infinitus
'The new Switzerland': US fights tax evasion abroad while being a tax haven at home
excellent article
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,406
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:07am Apr 8, 2016 4:07am
EU

nice Gaussian distribution on 5 day time span
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,407
  • Apr 8, 2016 9:41am Apr 8, 2016 9:41am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I was trading options professionally, and I can tell you VIX can go very low and stay there for quite some time. Also let's not forget where UJ is coming from...80s. So yes there is some room to go. The point with indices, and that is a realization after many years in the market, is that you cannot fight the central banks. And the central banks will not let the market plunge too much. Of course it is overbought. Look where it was in march 2009 and where it is now. But beyond little corrections I do not forsee a big plunge.
Thank you Manosk for sharing your experience.

Regarding the UJ: my lower target area is around 102 roughly, before a retrace/reversion may set in. But the bottom may be already in. I can find arguments for that. later more
  • #21,408
  • Apr 9, 2016 4:09pm Apr 9, 2016 4:09pm
EU ...it seems that is building a large R or S between 1.1335 / 95
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It depends which way break!
I prefer down ... and 1335 a BIG R.
  • #21,409
  • Apr 9, 2016 5:04pm Apr 9, 2016 5:04pm
Stunning Video Reveals Why You Shouldn't Trust Anything You See On Television

  • #21,410
  • Edited 10:01pm Apr 9, 2016 8:10pm | Edited 10:01pm
EU:

Possible break-out within 1-3 days ... for whatever direction it might be,
but i guess could be just a minor break-out to test bottom/top of 1.13 - 1.15 area (major break-out still undetermined to me).

H1 chart,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,411
  • Apr 9, 2016 8:47pm Apr 9, 2016 8:47pm
Quoting infinitus
Stunning Video Reveals Why You Shouldn't Trust Anything You See On Television
Hmm this is really dangerous invention ... not surprise though,
should be aware of anything that digital could be manipulated digitally without limit and beyond recognition.
  • #21,412
  • Apr 10, 2016 1:02pm Apr 10, 2016 1:02pm
Quoting chess king
EU ...it seems that is building a large R or S between 1.1335 / 95 {image} It depends which way break! I prefer down ... and 1335 a BIG R.
Interesting chart. I have the feeling that the break will be up...I think that the USD Index might fall and while UJ will appreciate EU will also go up.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,413
  • Apr 10, 2016 1:24pm Apr 10, 2016 1:24pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Interesting chart. I have the feeling that the break will be up...I think that the USD Index might fall and while UJ will appreciate EU will also go up.
the way I think as well

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,414
  • Apr 10, 2016 2:13pm Apr 10, 2016 2:13pm
Quoting andexQ
EU: Possible break-out within 1-3 days ... for whatever direction it might be, but i guess could be just a minor break-out to test bottom/top of 1.13 - 1.15 area (major break-out still undetermined to me). H1 chart, {image}

Be careful .. even though USD is bearish and under heavy pressure, structure of EU itself is prone to shake-out or false break-out.

Personally i prefer to enter a trade after break-out target is reached and about to reverse direction,
in this case maybe around 1.13 - 1.15 boundaries.
  • #21,415
  • Apr 10, 2016 4:25pm Apr 10, 2016 4:25pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Interesting chart. I have the feeling that the break will be up...I think that the USD Index might fall and while UJ will appreciate EU will also go up.
HI M..
Yes I'm seeing your idea with UJ... but for me 107.60 is a strong S ... in my charts . can make a small correction..
And E/U a possible attraction can be MPP 1.120x...
so I favor the underside ...are ideas
  • #21,416
  • Apr 10, 2016 8:33pm Apr 10, 2016 8:33pm
What is cooking?

Obama Announces Unexpected Meeting With Yellen Following Tomorrow's "Expedited Procedures" Fed Meeting
  • #21,417
  • Apr 11, 2016 2:48am Apr 11, 2016 2:48am
Quoting chess king
{quote} HI M.. Yes I'm seeing your idea with UJ... but for me 107.60 is a strong S ... in my charts . can make a small correction.. And E/U a possible attraction can be MPP 1.120x... so I favor the underside ...are ideas
Thanks chess king, I think we might be in the same direction in the UJ. I think UJ will go up.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,418
  • Apr 11, 2016 5:15am Apr 11, 2016 5:15am
Sentiment USDJPY

10% USDJPY bulls

dropping


may be soon ripe for a surge
  • #21,419
  • Apr 11, 2016 5:16am Apr 11, 2016 5:16am
Quoting infinitus
Sentiment USDJPY 10% USDJPY bulls dropping may be soon ripe for a surge
completely agree with you. Beware of BOJ
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,420
  • Apr 11, 2016 8:42am Apr 11, 2016 8:42am
SWFX volume EU

with Murrey Math overlay
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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