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Trading stocks, ETF, commodities using options

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 15, 2017 4:02pm Apr 7, 2016 7:37pm | Edited Jan 15, 2017 4:02pm
My options trades.
Trading options ,the best way to double my money.

""At fixed 12-month or longer expirations, buying call options is the most profitable, which makes sense since long-term call options benefit from unlimited upside and slow time decay""

Do not sell naked options.
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #2
  • Edited Apr 8, 2016 12:09am Apr 7, 2016 10:59pm | Edited Apr 8, 2016 12:09am
IBB
wating
he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #3
  • Apr 8, 2016 12:10am Apr 8, 2016 12:10am
Interesting. I'll be following this thread.
  • #4
  • Apr 10, 2016 6:16am Apr 10, 2016 6:16am
ALIBABA
I'm waiting for signals to go short (to buy puts)
GS i'm short(long puts)
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #5
  • Apr 12, 2016 12:42pm Apr 12, 2016 12:42pm
FB
price could fall.
I'm long puts
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #6
  • Apr 14, 2016 11:48am Apr 14, 2016 11:48am
XLU
Waiting for a good set up
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #7
  • Apr 14, 2016 12:03pm Apr 14, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting comoestas
FB price could fall. I'm long puts
we've discussed the effect of iv on options valuations before, amigo, so I'm not gonna bore you too much - but FB has its earnings report in Apr week 5, so the iv of the options is rising into that volatile event. After the report is out, iv of the options will crash and their values will fall. This is true across the chains but especially for the weeklies closest to the earnings release date. Anyway, if you think FB is going to drop, maybe a better trade would be to sell calls just before the earnings come out, when the calls iv has peaked.

You can trade options directionally, but if you ignore the effects of iv on options pricing, you're setting yourself up for failure. At the very least, if you're going to go long calls & long puts, at least do so when the iv of the options is low....Buena Suerte.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8
  • Edited 6:48pm Apr 14, 2016 6:36pm | Edited 6:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} if you're going to go long calls & long puts, at least do so when the iv of the options is low....Buena Suerte.
I will paper trade FB,using long options that expire in 4 month or more.
I will see how the IV,work .
thanks
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #9
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:51pm Apr 14, 2016 6:51pm
WHR
waiting
the uptrend is about to end
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #10
  • Edited 10:47am Apr 15, 2016 10:27am | Edited 10:47am
FSLR could fall

CORN could rally
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #11
  • Apr 15, 2016 10:45am Apr 15, 2016 10:45am
FB current price is at about 110. Are you thinking that it could drop to about 60 by September (as indicated by your highlighting on the option chain chart)? I am not saying it is impossible, but would like to see your reasoning for such a big drop in stock price for your proposed trade. I agree that having a long expiration date removes a lot of the current iv effect. Also maybe you are not planning to hold the put that long... Thanks.
  • #12
  • Apr 15, 2016 8:35pm Apr 15, 2016 8:35pm
Quoting comoestas
FSLR could fall
check the solar stocks' correlation with oil - if oil keeps rising, best of breed solar stocks will rise also
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13
  • Apr 16, 2016 2:41am Apr 16, 2016 2:41am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}check the solar stocks' correlation with oil - if oil keeps rising, best of breed solar stocks will rise also
My charts are showing sell signals in FSLR, and oil was strong last 2 weeks.
i will test the correlation ,but i will follow my charts.
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #14
  • Edited 3:17am Apr 16, 2016 2:55am | Edited 3:17am
Quoting calaxcorp
FB current price is at about 110. Are you thinking that it could drop to about 60 by September (as indicated by your highlighting on the option chain chart)? I am not saying it is impossible, but would like to see your reasoning for such a big drop in stock price for your proposed trade. I agree that having a long expiration date removes a lot of the current iv effect. Also maybe you are not planning to hold the put that long... Thanks.
(as indicated by your highlighting on the option chain chart)? no that was not me,the sofware automaticamente highlight some areas of the charts. the highlighted prices, is only to show wich option are in the money.
i do not have a price target, my pointer was in the 60 area when i printed thet chart, but that is not my price target.

stock in the Internet sector drop big.
have a look LNKD,TWTR
FB will drop too ,,just follow your system and you will see when is a good time to short based in your own views
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #15
  • Apr 16, 2016 3:06am Apr 16, 2016 3:06am
Quoting comoestas
My charts are showing sell signals in FSLR, and oil was strong last 2 weeks. i will test the correlation ,but i will follow my charts.
oil will do what Doha forces it to do - if there is no production freeze deal this weekend, oil will fall, probably back to $37.xx wti in the coming week. Correlation of solar stocks to oil is easy to see, but not so easy to understand. And, of course, correlations are changing all the time.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16
  • Apr 16, 2016 3:37am Apr 16, 2016 3:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}oil will do what Doha forces it to do - if there is no production freeze deal this weekend, oil will fall, probably back to $37.xx wti in the coming week. Correlation of solar stocks to oil is easy to see, but not so easy to understand. And, of course, correlations are changing all the time.
that is why i go for the easy to see:my charts. that i "understand"and still i'm wrong a lot of times.

what do you see in NFLX?
Any views?
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #17
  • Apr 16, 2016 12:20pm Apr 16, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting comoestas
that is why i go for the easy to see:my charts. that i "understand"and still i'm wrong a lot of times. what do you see in NFLX? Any views?
well, you have lots of company. Most (>90%) stock pickers fail & lose money. We have been in a US stock market that is pretty much flat-lining - SnP ranging between roughly 1,900 and 2,100 for the last couple years - that's just a 10% range. Some big moves in there that were m/l impossible to predict. Hedge funds full of professional traders have been closing up shop at a record rate because they can't make money in this sideways market.

Volatility is much easier to predict than direction. Options trading is about trading volatility. If you think you have an edge with chart reading that allows you to work directional prediction into the mix, go for it. re: NFLX, the earnings are reporting Monday, after the market close. watch the options iv's - they will fall hard on Tuesday. Options values will fall as well. That means it would be a good time to buy options AFTER the earnings report, Tuesday and afterwards. The one scenario I would look to trade in NFLX now is: look for a big share price spike and fade that with bearish put spreads. However, if I had to guess I'd say it looks like it will drop...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18
  • Apr 16, 2016 12:25pm Apr 16, 2016 12:25pm
Quoting The Fool
Volatility is much easier to predict than direction....
the green/orange line in the chart above is IVR - the implied volatility rank. IVR measures the average iv of the at-the-money front month options of a given day and compares that to those daily values for the prior X number of days - typically for the prior year. If IVR is high, it means the options iv's are high, and vice versa. When IVR is high, it might be a good time to sell options - when low, a good time to buy. Do you have a way of plotting IVR or implied volatility?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19
  • Apr 18, 2016 4:32am Apr 18, 2016 4:32am
NFLX daily chart is in buy mode for me.
IV is not part of my chart.
In the option change i use delta and IV to decide wich option to buy.
i simple buy call or puts.
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #20
  • Apr 18, 2016 8:18pm Apr 18, 2016 8:18pm
IV before earning
compare price and IV changes
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
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