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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #521
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:10pm Apr 7, 2016 5:10pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I have been following you posts for about yr and your PA skills are awesome. Im more of a fundamental trader so this is why i am bias short on aussie. But if I had listened to you i would of cleaned up both ways.
Thanks for the kind words. I think the short bias might be near if we get some follow through to the downside. The current sideways price action suggests we'll get leg 2 down without much of a pullback.
  • #522
  • Apr 7, 2016 6:31pm Apr 7, 2016 6:31pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I definitely can't explain why the Aussie rallied so much this year...but I learned a while ago that it doesn't matter what I think, I just need to trade what the chart say.
It does matter what you think. When you trade short term (day trading) chart matters, when you make decisions for years to come (trend trading) - fundamentals should be a more reliable source. I'm short since July 2014.
  • #523
  • Apr 7, 2016 6:37pm Apr 7, 2016 6:37pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} It does matter what you think. When you trade short term (day trading) chart matters, when you make decisions for years to come (trend trading) - fundamentals should be a more reliable source. I'm short since July 2014.
wow, what is the swap on this?
  • #524
  • Apr 7, 2016 6:44pm Apr 7, 2016 6:44pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} It does matter what you think. When you trade short term (day trading) chart matters, when you make decisions for years to come (trend trading) - fundamentals should be a more reliable source. I'm short since July 2014.

That's crazy in my mind...I could never hold a trade that long. There just aren't enough pips in it to make it worth my time. I do far better day trading. Not to say your method is wrong, if it works for you...keep going. It's just not for me. Many pips to you!
  • #525
  • Apr 7, 2016 7:06pm Apr 7, 2016 7:06pm
Hey PA I see you r still up and following the action. I had to do a 12 and half hour night shift Aussie time last night just after I turned the computer on and saw the drop beginning. Couldn't keep up with action at all, I was in a hole in the ground all night. I'm just now home trying to catch up on what happened. Has there been any particular news to cause this drop that you r aware of. Things were powering along nicely yesterday before my pre-work sleep, then bang AUD and NZD got hammered again. New low on AUD 4HR. We are still above daily uptrend line, but I think we have dropped below 4HR trend line, so I think that puts probabilities on the downside. Your thoughts? Is that how your chart shows it? What do you expect next? I think it might head down to test Daily trendline now. I'm sitting on a few longs, have to make a decision whether to close. I left pending shorts on at .747 overnight in case it broke down further, and stops on longs there too. My decision to make, but value your in sights. Price has been sitting on .75 for 9 hours now. The drop to .751 before it took about 6 hours before it showed life.
  • #526
  • Apr 7, 2016 7:09pm Apr 7, 2016 7:09pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} That's crazy in my mind...I could never hold a trade that long. There just aren't enough pips in it to make it worth my time. I do far better day trading. Not to say your method is wrong, if it works for you...keep going. It's just not for me. Many pips to you!
Holding a positive equity is a great feeling

the most ive held a trade for is around a month and while its positive you can keep day trading.
When the aussie has bottomed out im going long and will most probably hold it for as long as possible.

Once it starts hitting low .60's is when i will change my bias to long

I have heard some traders still holding longs from 10 years ago
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #527
  • Apr 7, 2016 7:19pm Apr 7, 2016 7:19pm
currently the commodity based currencies have strength in the Asian session, I think this will continue throughout the session.
  • #528
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:57pm Apr 7, 2016 9:57pm
The Australian dollar lost around 1.25% in overnight trade.
That made it the second biggest mover in the G10 currency pairs closely pacing the move in the USDJPY which fell 1.4%. The Aussie’s fall was around half a percent more than the Kiwi’s dip, and around 0.75% more than the fall in the Canadian dollar.
Part of that is likely renewed concerns about global growth. But some responsibility likely also rests with RBA board member John Edwards, who told Ticky Fullerton on ABC’s The Business that he thinks the dollar should be lower.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/rb...t-night-2016-4
  • #529
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:38pm Apr 7, 2016 10:38pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} wow, what is the swap on this?
No swap. It's not a forex trade.
  • #530
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:51pm Apr 7, 2016 10:51pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} No swap. It's not a forex trade.
Can you elaborate? Seems unusual to be saying on an FX site, A/U thread that you are short but talking about something else.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #531
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:03pm Apr 7, 2016 11:03pm
Quoting PA is King
Folks, that's some interesting price action overnight while I was sleeping...I did not see this kind of drop coming after yesterday's rally. But the market will do what the market wants and I was wrong this time. I've attached a couple of charts(Daily and 4hr) with some Price Action comments on what I'm looking at now. Although, after the 110pip selloff(which is Aussie's normal ADR) we might find some support around .7500 again. Have to see what the US traders are going today do. Trade Smart! p.s. just wanted to add a sidenote in here...those who...

I have one chart which shows Daily close .7502. Another shows .7527 Daily close...obviously different time zones. Either way you quittttte get your close below .7500

Today's 4Hr showing pinbar, 2 HR solid but keeps getting knocked back from resistance zone around .7533. However for last hour and a half it has refused to pull back much from there, looks like it will climb through eventually. I'm going to hold my longs for now, have order pending to sell half at .7634 and reduce my exposure. I might have to adjust lower if PA convinces me that it can't do a hundred pips, which currently seems a big ask.
  • #532
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:12pm Apr 7, 2016 11:12pm
I dont see a pinbar on my 4h chart can you post a shot of your chart.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #533
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:18pm Apr 7, 2016 11:18pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
I dont see a pinbar on my 4h chart can you post a shot of your chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 65 KB


Hopefully this works Paul
  • #534
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:23pm Apr 7, 2016 11:23pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} {image} Hopefully this works Paul
Mine is completely different
Im going through pepperstone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 57 KB
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #535
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:29pm Apr 7, 2016 11:29pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Mine is completely different Im going through pepperstone.{image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 33 KB


Another version. This one will only give me 5 HR option not 4. Complicates candle signals, doesn't it?
  • #536
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:37pm Apr 7, 2016 11:37pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} {image} Another version. This one will only give me 5 HR option not 4. Complicates candle signals, doesn't it?
yes it does, I think its always good to use MA's sup/res along with candle patterns.

my other aud chart is a bit messy so i didnt show it but it has so many trend lines on it and its amazing how the price will stop exactly to the point on trend lines. it will either then punch though or reject.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1-1.png Size: 84 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1-2.png Size: 76 KB
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #537
  • Apr 8, 2016 12:08am Apr 8, 2016 12:08am
Yeah agreed trend lines and S/R levels more significant than candles, but candles are good for showing power and level of movement and time at levels and I do like pinbars and engulfing, all part of confluence,
but as demonstrated, three different providers and 3 different sets of candles. By the way, you prompted me to have another try at posting charts, I pushed a few different buttons on computer and conquered my handicap!
  • #538
  • Apr 8, 2016 1:56am Apr 8, 2016 1:56am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} yes it does, I think its always good to use MA's sup/res along with candle patterns. my other aud chart is a bit messy so i didnt show it but it has so many trend lines on it and its amazing how the price will stop exactly to the point on trend lines. it will either then punch though or reject. {image}{image}
If you compare this chart from the one earlier I added a new line( green) you will see where price touched the green line for the 3rd time it rejected price lower.

I shorted again at a higher price .05 lots took 10 pips profit and the 1st trade closed out at 2 pips . Made 0.5% profit.

Just to note price came within 2 pips of my sl

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM15.png Size: 58 KB
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #539
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:14am Apr 8, 2016 2:14am
Same chart current time. You will notice price touched trend line and bounced off it could be rejected again fall further or if close out probability to go higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM15.png Size: 58 KB
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #540
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:36am Apr 8, 2016 2:36am
Now its a rejection and testing lower support by bouncing off on 5m chart 15m bounced of 50 MA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM5.png Size: 53 KB
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
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