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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #501
  • Apr 7, 2016 2:33am Apr 7, 2016 2:33am
Any idea why the sudden drop? Kiwi down as well
  • #502
  • Apr 7, 2016 2:41am Apr 7, 2016 2:41am
Quoting Blackopal
Any idea why the sudden drop? Kiwi down as well
Judging by the FF chart and news story around the time it started going down, coupled with E/A action I'd say it's Euro stimulus related:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/...160407.en.html
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #503
  • Apr 7, 2016 2:44am Apr 7, 2016 2:44am
Quoting Blackopal
Any idea why the sudden drop? Kiwi down as well
Dont know why but its a nice short signal IMO

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 71 KB
  • #504
  • Edited 4:29am Apr 7, 2016 3:21am | Edited 4:29am
Have a look at the oil & copper charts [for the same time period]. Now while oil might recover, copper & aud might or might not.

Makes you wonder what'll happen to aud when dollar strength comes back.
  • #505
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:58am Apr 7, 2016 4:58am
Quoting brian.jer
{quote} Dont know why but its a nice short signal IMO {image}
Profit target hit.
  • #506
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:00am Apr 7, 2016 5:00am
Quoting Blackopal
Any idea why the sudden drop? Kiwi down as well
sell the highs banks have got shorts on
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #507
  • Apr 7, 2016 7:20am Apr 7, 2016 7:20am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I shorted the high made 20 pips
Nice job, good little profit!
  • #508
  • Apr 7, 2016 7:22am Apr 7, 2016 7:22am
Quoting dab
45 pips down in under an hour!
I have one question for you....why have you been so quite the past couple of months when price was going up, but the one week we get some selling you get vocal?
  • #509
  • Edited 7:57am Apr 7, 2016 7:27am | Edited 7:57am
Folks, that's some interesting price action overnight while I was sleeping...I did not see this kind of drop coming after yesterday's rally. But the market will do what the market wants and I was wrong this time. I've attached a couple of charts(Daily and 4hr) with some Price Action comments on what I'm looking at now. Although, after the 110pip selloff(which is Aussie's normal ADR) we might find some support around .7500 again. Have to see what the US traders are going today do.

Trade Smart!

p.s. just wanted to add a sidenote in here...those who have followed this thread from the beginning and know that I usually trade from the 1hr chart might be asking, why is he showing the Daily and 4hr charts so much lately? Well, the 1hr charts have become a little too choppy and hard to read lately so I jumped up timeframes to get a clearer picture.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproDaily 006.png Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH4 011.png Size: 110 KB
  • #510
  • Apr 7, 2016 8:41am Apr 7, 2016 8:41am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I have one question for you....why have you been so quite the past couple of months when price was going up, but the one week we get some selling you get vocal?
I think most traders go quiet when they get caught in negative trades. Its stressful. haha
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #511
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:01am Apr 7, 2016 9:01am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I have one question for you....why have you been so quite the past couple of months when price was going up, but the one week we get some selling you get vocal?
What is there to say when it's so irrational? This pair should be trading a lot lower than 0.65 by now. When some sense comes back, than it's time to voice it out.
  • #512
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:53am Apr 7, 2016 9:53am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I think most traders go quiet when they get caught in negative trades. Its stressful. haha
Thanks Paul...that was along the lines of my politeness in pointing something out. My thread went pretty quiet the past month or so as price was rallying and I stayed with my "buy the dips" bias. But it first week we get some decent selling it's like a lot of people come out to try and point out I'm wrong. I noticed this behavior a lot on ForexFactory and many different threads. It's a shame, it would be nice if more people were supportive of each other and congratulated them more when they were right instead of pointing out people's flaws. Just my humble opinion.

Many pips to you!
  • #513
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:54am Apr 7, 2016 9:54am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} What is there to say when it's so irrational? This pair should be trading a lot lower than 0.65 by now. When some sense comes back, than it's time to voice it out.
I definitely can't explain why the Aussie rallied so much this year...but I learned a while ago that it doesn't matter what I think, I just need to trade what the chart say.
  • #514
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:10am Apr 7, 2016 10:10am
There we go, finally broke through .7500...that's what I was hoping to see today. Now to see where this Daily candle closes. 146pip selloff today so far, that's pretty good.
  • #515
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:57am Apr 7, 2016 10:57am
I don't know what Yellen might say this afternoon...but the 4hr chart has finally made a Lower High and a Lower Low. So I'm cautiously thinking about changing my bias from Buying the Dips to Selling Rallies.
  • #516
  • Apr 7, 2016 2:25pm Apr 7, 2016 2:25pm
The lack of any rebound around .7500 and the sideways price action also supports a bearish view.
  • #517
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:51pm Apr 7, 2016 4:51pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I have one question for you....why have you been so quite the past couple of months when price was going up, but the one week we get some selling you get vocal?
I think you know the answer! It's always more exciting when things go your way and I've been consistently short. I had 40 posts in March (spread across the A/U threads) so I haven't been that quiet!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #518
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:55pm Apr 7, 2016 4:55pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Thanks Paul...that was along the lines of my politeness in pointing something out. My thread went pretty quiet the past month or so as price was rallying and I stayed with my "buy the dips" bias. But it first week we get some decent selling it's like a lot of people come out to try and point out I'm wrong. I noticed this behavior a lot on ForexFactory and many different threads. It's a shame, it would be nice if more people were supportive of each other and congratulated them more when they were right instead of pointing out people's flaws....
Just to be clear PA, I am not and have never intended to point out you are wrong as I very much respect you as a trader / poster (and haven't noticed any flaws anyway - I very much think people can profit regardless of conditions and direction if they have their money management right and you seem to have that well under control). Sorry if anything I said was taken in that way.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #519
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:58pm Apr 7, 2016 4:58pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Thanks Paul...that was along the lines of my politeness in pointing something out. My thread went pretty quiet the past month or so as price was rallying and I stayed with my "buy the dips" bias. But it first week we get some decent selling it's like a lot of people come out to try and point out I'm wrong. I noticed this behavior a lot on ForexFactory and many different threads. It's a shame, it would be nice if more people were supportive of each other and congratulated them more when they were right instead of pointing out people's flaws....
I have been following you posts for about yr and your PA skills are awesome.

Im more of a fundamental trader so this is why i am bias short on aussie. But if I had listened to you i would of cleaned up both ways.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #520
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:07pm Apr 7, 2016 5:07pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Just to be clear PA, I am not and have never intended to point out you are wrong as I very much respect you as a trader / poster (and haven't noticed any flaws anyway - I very much think people can profit regardless of conditions and direction if they have their money management right and you seem to have that well under control). Sorry if anything I said was taken in that way.
No worries man, I was just commenting in general as to what I see on a lot of other threads. Your method differs from mine so I'm sure we'll often trade different directions.
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