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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #741
  • Apr 4, 2016 9:51am Apr 4, 2016 9:51am
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From my blog:

OIl 5min bearish divergence
A volatile instrument for a divergence play on the 5 min WTI chart, but there's certainly bearish divergence there at the moment.
  • #742
  • Apr 5, 2016 3:17am Apr 5, 2016 3:17am
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From my blog:


$36 in sight for Brent
The daily chart in Brent gives an indication of possible further falls to come. As highlighted, the daily candle broke the lower Bollinger band with a very decisive bearish candle. BB breaks can be a great area to time a reversal, but for this a reversal candle or pattern is needed. With a break as convicted as this, further falls often follow. It wouldn't surprise me to see some retrace first, but 36 remains my initial target.
  • #743
  • Apr 6, 2016 3:10am Apr 6, 2016 3:10am
Short-term descending trend-channel resistance, at 38.15, can continue restricting the Crude's recent bounce
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  • #744
  • Apr 6, 2016 3:14am Apr 6, 2016 3:14am
Quoting Fx_Anil
Short-term descending trend-channel resistance, at 38.15, can continue restricting the Crude's recent bounce {image}

Anil what size of stop would you use ?
  • #745
  • Apr 6, 2016 3:25am Apr 6, 2016 3:25am
Quoting FxJunkies
{image} From my blog: $36 in sight for Brent The daily chart in Brent gives an indication of possible further falls to come. As highlighted, the daily candle broke the lower Bollinger band with a very decisive bearish candle. BB breaks can be a great area to time a reversal, but for this a reversal candle or pattern is needed. With a break as convicted as this, further falls often follow. It wouldn't surprise me to see some retrace first, but 36 remains my initial target.
solid analysis. Whats you time frame for TP?
  • #746
  • Apr 6, 2016 5:30am Apr 6, 2016 5:30am
Quoting FxJunkies
{image} From my blog: $36 in sight for Brent The daily chart in Brent gives an indication of possible further falls to come. As highlighted, the daily candle broke the lower Bollinger band with a very decisive bearish candle. BB breaks can be a great area to time a reversal, but for this a reversal candle or pattern is needed. With a break as convicted as this, further falls often follow. It wouldn't surprise me to see some retrace first, but 36 remains my initial target.
Interesting analysis, thank you. I have to say that on my charts it I have buy signal in the weekly, it bounced nicely off the 100 MA in the daily and yes there are a lot of hurdles on the way up, such as 38.32 in the daily, 37.40 and 38.07 on the 4H, but there is real upside potential and my next medium term target is 49.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #747
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:29am Apr 6, 2016 6:29am
Quoting don555
{quote} Anil what size of stop would you use ?
I might put 38.30 as a Stop-level for a short price of 37.60
  • #748
  • Apr 6, 2016 11:31am Apr 6, 2016 11:31am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} solid analysis. Whats you time frame for TP?
I think after the Doha oil producers meeting on 17th, we'll see a big move one way or the other
  • #749
  • Apr 6, 2016 11:45am Apr 6, 2016 11:45am
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From my blog:

Oil inventories fall, previous support becomes resistance?
Oil ripped up the page on a surprise fall in US crude stocks this afternoon with an intra day high of 37.80 on WTI. But will this level hold as a high? The 4 hour wti chart shows that this area was previous support , marked in yellow, which can often then become resistance. There's also hidden bearish divergence too, as shown. This could well be an area to short again.
  • #750
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:57pm Apr 6, 2016 6:57pm
There is several factors to why crude oil will trade sideways from 38-42 until summer time.
Be patient guys and gals.
When crude oil trades sideways for 7-21 days upon reaching 40$ level that will be the perfect time to buy sell contracts 5-6 months out for the summer to fall downfall to retest 26$ and go lower. Or through DTO or DWTI on the stock market. DWTI target price to enter is 110-120 level for me.
The glut isn't going away
  • #751
  • Apr 7, 2016 2:48am Apr 7, 2016 2:48am
Quoting FxJunkies
{quote} I think after the Doha oil producers meeting on 17th, we'll see a big move one way or the other
Totally agree
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #752
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:30am Apr 7, 2016 5:30am
What's kind of strategy u use guys for this (crude oil).
Thanks.
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -299
  • #753
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:06am Apr 7, 2016 10:06am
Quoting FxJunkies
{image} From my blog: Oil inventories fall, previous support becomes resistance? Oil ripped up the page on a surprise fall in US crude stocks this afternoon with an intra day high of 37.80 on WTI. But will this level hold as a high? The 4 hour wti chart shows that this area was previous support , marked in yellow, which can often then become resistance. There's also hidden bearish divergence too, as shown. This could well be an area to short again.
Nice analysis. Price rejecting nicely @ S/R area as of 11AM EST.
  • #754
  • Apr 7, 2016 12:06pm Apr 7, 2016 12:06pm
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From my blog:

Still happy short oil...for now!
As an oil bear, Tuesday and Wednesday caused some nervousness, but for both Brent and WTI, the price stayed within a level where I'm happy, namely below the middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart. If we're going to see a sustained new move down, I want to see price stay below the 20 sma, which is the middle band on Bollinger standard settings. As the WTI chart shows, this has happened today, so for now, I'm still happy, but a close above this will see me cover my short. On a longer term basis, many traders use above or below the 200 sma as their definition of trend, and as marked in yellow on the chart it bounces here too.
  • #755
  • Apr 8, 2016 3:08am Apr 8, 2016 3:08am
If oil breaks through the current levels at aroung 38.18 decisively (4H and daily) then we are looking at over 40 in a very short time.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #756
  • Apr 8, 2016 8:01am Apr 8, 2016 8:01am
Quoting manosk
If oil breaks through the current levels at aroung 38.18 decisively (4H and daily) then we are looking at over 40 in a very short time.
40.34 in oil is coming
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #757
  • Apr 10, 2016 8:44am Apr 10, 2016 8:44am
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From my blog:

Goldman Sachs contradict Russia on it's oil production
Russia has stated this week that it looks forward to a successful outcome to next weekend oil producers meeting in Doha. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak has stated that although exports may rise this year over last, overall production would not go higher than January's average of 10.91 million barrels per day and that a freeze could be anticipated at those levels. However Goldman Sachs research note on Thursday estimates that daily production will rise to 11.2 million barrels per day this year up from 11.1 last year and that 2017 production will rise to 11.4 million barrels per day in 2017. Who's right?

The Brent weekly chart above still shows hidden bearish divergence.
  • #758
  • Apr 10, 2016 12:58pm Apr 10, 2016 12:58pm
Quoting FxJunkies
{image} From my blog: Goldman Sachs contradict Russia on it's oil production Russia has stated this week that it looks forward to a successful outcome to next weekend oil producers meeting in Doha. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak has stated that although exports may rise this year over last, overall production would not go higher than January's average of 10.91 million barrels per day and that a freeze could be anticipated at those levels. However Goldman Sachs research note on Thursday estimates that daily production will rise to 11.2 million...
I wouldnt trust any of the two parties. Goldman because of its incompetence (they had to abandon 4 out of their 5 trades of the year in January already) and Russia because I dont trust any government. One thing to note though here is that there were analysts pointing to the fact that Russia and Saudi Arabia were talking comfortably about current production level freeze because both of them are pumping at their limits and a production level freeze wouldn't touch them at all.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #759
  • Apr 10, 2016 1:45pm Apr 10, 2016 1:45pm
Weekly chart

Best
D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #760
  • Apr 11, 2016 8:42am Apr 11, 2016 8:42am
Big hurdle to the upside for oil here at 40.29. If it breaks then we can see even 45.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
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