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Let's Trade Options

  • #12,581
  • Apr 5, 2016 6:09am Apr 5, 2016 6:09am
VIX
weekly options

buying the 13 call
short term buy signal
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #12,582
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:30am Apr 5, 2016 9:30am
Quoting comoestas
VIX weekly options buying the 13 call short term buy signal {image} {image}
Look to bail on that quickly if you get a pop ... . It starts losing value from theta decay immediately when you "drive it off the lot" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,583
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:37am Apr 5, 2016 9:37am
Sold EWZ May 20th 17.5/20.5/29.5/32.5 Iron Condor

Going where the premium's at ... .

Probability of Profit: 71%
Max Profit: $66/contract
Buying Power Effect: $234/contract

Going small here and not looking for much on a per contract basis in an effort to keep powder dry. Moreover, Brazil's been "hot" volatility wise, so I may want to disperse risk over several expiries going forward with this puppy, rather than piling into a single expiry ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,584
  • Apr 5, 2016 11:18am Apr 5, 2016 11:18am
SPX looks like it might be turning over on the 1H/4H (it's faked tons of times before in the Valentine's Day Rally), so going "Big Boy" small, narrow, defined:

SPX May 20th 2120/2125 short call vert
Prob of Profit: 71%
Max Profit: $110/contract
Buying Power Effect: $390/contract

I'll hedge with a short put vert if we get some major weakness to buy into and complete an IC ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,585
  • Apr 5, 2016 12:17pm Apr 5, 2016 12:17pm
Okay, this isn't my usual cup of tea, but I have a bit of buying power sitting on the sidelines here, so I'm ripping this off from Dough's Kristi (although she's going short strangle -- yikes).

Sold to Open AMZN April 15th 552.50/557.50/617.5/622.5 iron condor

Probability of Profit: 72%
Max Profit: $98/contract
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: $402/contract

9.74 in theta is the "sexy" part ... . I'll take it off at 50% max, as I don't want to be holding this bag into earnings ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,586
  • Apr 5, 2016 12:18pm Apr 5, 2016 12:18pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Look to bail on that quickly if you get a pop ... . It starts losing value from theta decay immediately when you "drive it off the lot" ... .
... assuming there are buyers at that strike when you go to unload. Both volume and OI are extremely thin ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,587
  • Apr 5, 2016 12:49pm Apr 5, 2016 12:49pm
Quoting The Fool
...lots loaded, will take a chance on the weekly SPY bear puts, $205/$204.5 for a dime
I shoulda went super-bear with this vert & the bear calls, oh well....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,588
  • Apr 5, 2016 1:20pm Apr 5, 2016 1:20pm
Quoting comoestas
VIX weekly options buying the 13 call short term buy signal
suerte, amigo...........just a thing or 2 I see about your trade - you bought Apr5 calls, those are 21 days out - why did you not choose in the nearer Apr calls? There's 0 open interest on those Apr5 $13 calls and the bid/ask spread is $1.10....not so sabrosa. Just a tip - when you are trading ^VIX products, the long calls will gain in value disproportionately because of increasing iv, and it will help to have some time on them so as to get away from the steep theta decay, but you will also benefit from choosing something that has good volume (or oi) or else you will pay the price in a big bid/ask spread. Paying a big spread means you are starting off in the hole.......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,589
  • Apr 5, 2016 1:31pm Apr 5, 2016 1:31pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} 45dte to May....SPY $212/$215 bear calls might get ya $0.80+ tomorrow....
in the $212/215 calls for 72c credit, will be looking for a quick exit at 50% maxP, could get it this week if we can stack up some red dailies...72c down to 52c atm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,590
  • Apr 5, 2016 1:49pm Apr 5, 2016 1:49pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
SPX looks like it might be turning over ... .
I'm not a believer, I still think the program is an April bull run, all it will take to encourage the bulls is a turn up in the oil price....but we shall see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,591
  • Apr 5, 2016 2:38pm Apr 5, 2016 2:38pm
get some
Quoting The Fool
{quote} any crazy spekalator gotta have some PBR...it have the added complication of the political volatility in Brazil.....if they get to an impeachment vote PBR will pop on the "buy the rumor" ....and then fall if impeachment fails or languishes. I have lots of PBR bullish spreads, as far as I recall they all out to July...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...=yhoo.headline
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,592
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:17pm Apr 5, 2016 4:17pm
bit of a surprise on the API build number (up) and so maybe oil will turn tomorrow and pull up equities? idk, we might see chop the whole month....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,593
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:25pm Apr 5, 2016 4:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'm not a believer, I still think the program is an April bull run, all it will take to encourage the bulls is a turn up in the oil price....but we shall see....
Oodles of down turn teases in the Valentine's Day Rally, which is way intact on the Daily. Don't know how many times I've heard the phrases: "It's looking overextended," "This has gotta be the top here," ya da ya da in the TradingView Stocks and Indices chat room with people attempting to read SPX's tea leaves with RSI, Harmonics, various goofy ass scripts and indicators ... .

This bitch still looks bullish to me:

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Granted, I am working off a Daily and there have been plenty of /ES scalping opps all over the place and in both directions on shorter time frames ... . But for a short term play, a short call vertical north of that 212 area looks "temporarily safe" (hope I didn't just jinx it there).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,594
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:53pm Apr 5, 2016 4:53pm
Oil can just be plain ass maddening. It will fall into substantial periods of consolidative indecision and/or ping pong between Fib levels (both of which can be worked as range plays), but there are also external forces like OPEC that can suddenly throw a substantial wrench into the works:

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That being said, there is some long-term common sense to where price is at. Here, I've gone "old school" and "Fibbed out" the Weekly from the 2013 high to 26.03 low and then, in turn, Fibbed out the quadrant of the Weekly between its 0 and .236 Fibs (old school traders used to do this to try to formulate where common sense spots were to buy/sell and where they just plain wanted to stay out of the market since price was at an indecisional midpoint between levels). You can then see some confluence between long term Fib lines and obvious support/resistance:

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Coincidentally, we ended the day at the .50 Fib for that lower quadrant, so I could see some push/pull around this area since it's at the mid point between the 3/21 high of 41.87 and that 2/8 26.03 low. It could fall back toward 26 or explode back up to test 42. So I'd want to stay out of /CL here ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,595
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:57pm Apr 5, 2016 4:57pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
But for a short term play, a short call vertical north of that 212 area looks "temporarily safe" (hope I didn't just jinx it there).
indeed, that $212-213 call short you might be able to do multiple times if we get into a couple months of top range chop. Anyway, if we see a nice red candle tomorrow I will take about a $0.30 net on the May vert I am in and call it good.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,596
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:05pm Apr 5, 2016 5:05pm
Gold's a similar deal. These two "red lines" are hugely long-term Fibs that price is screwing around in between. Just can't seem to clear that 1283:

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Naturally, Fibs aren't the be all and end all of where you should enter a trade. I just find some reassurance in the fact that if price is going to react off one of those levels, well, I'm probably going to use it in some fashion to determine where it makes sense to place a spread. Additionally, I think they work better with some things as compared to others. Things like USD-denominated commodities and/or spot forex don't have as many moving parts as say SPX, so my feeling is Fibs may work better with those than with indices, where it's best to stick with obvious support/resistance that sticks out at you.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,597
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:07pm Apr 5, 2016 5:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}indeed, that $212-213 call short you might be able to do multiple times if we get into a couple months of top range chop. Anyway, if we see a nice red candle tomorrow I will take about a $0.30 net on the May vert I am in and call it good.
I can't believe we're back at the point where 213 or 214 is "good resistance" ... . That's where I was placing crap, well, a whole f'in year ago. C'est la vie, I guess ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,598
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:22pm Apr 5, 2016 5:22pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I can't believe we're back at the point where 213 or 214 is "good resistance" ... . That's where I was placing crap, well, a whole f'in year ago. C'est la vie, I guess ... .
spoos would break like a bat outta Hell if wti would claw back $45 or better, but it needs to happen soon, before the Brexit and other June jitters start to peek in
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,599
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:23pm Apr 5, 2016 5:23pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Gold's a similar deal.
I can't trade gold. I also can't learn to like sour pickles. A man's got to know his limitations.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,600
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:25pm Apr 5, 2016 5:25pm
gold

if you mind me posting tell me ı will stop
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