High velocity

gold daily is a confirmed harmonic pattern called bearish shark. Right now we have confirmed reversal and gold will drop to 1160 and second target for short traders is 1097. I don't see 950 as a technical target on gold yet, still it could go lower.

I'm not trading gold now, I'm focused on one FX pair and that is GBP USD.

Technically the rally on Gold was overdone, since it moved almost 200+ dollars in one quarter, this is unrealistic, so bears will take over now. Finally, though Fed did chicken out of the rate hikes, the rates are still going up, and gold can't prosper in a high rate environment. If you look at gold prices historically gold goes up when they have high inflation readings in US. Currently this is not the case and also USD rates are going up hence making the dollar stronger.

If I was to trade gold, and we have two targets on the short side I would put psychological round levels on M5 chart and sell once price breaks below 1250 1240 1230 1220 you get the idea. Very simple yet effective way to trade gold.

if you look at the dollar index chart (Daily) you can see that we are locked in the range of 93.40-100.00.
Currently USD technically looks strong and probably will go higher still, which means EUR USD probably back to 1.08-1.09 area.

Also gold will drop sharply upon USD strength. Today's selloff is just the start.

easy way to trade gold off 5 minute chart.

in fact it's already breaking through 1220 and going lower still.

that's the reason why you have to keep your trading strategy simple. nothing complicated in trading 1250 1240 1230 1220 1210 1200 etc.

also don't trade right now based on this chart above ))) range on gold is 25 USD a day, today's high was 1248 - 25 = 1223
we are at 1219 which means we borrowed 4 USD out of the regular day range on gold

Great thoughts! My newsletter (and I) were targeting 950ish based on longer term trends. But wedges obviously don't complete with 100% precision and I have been afraid things could turn around and with enough people anticipating the bottom, or not expecting a bottom that low, they may skip a bottom that is that low. I don't want to get stuck hoping for it, so I appreciate the targets the shark is giving. (It's a new one for me -- I will have to study it.)

Here's an article on it:
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-03-22...echnician.html

I have had a hard time taking the 10's psychology too seriously, but maybe there is something to it

I became fascinated by the Elliot Wave. Basically, if gold all of a sudden does something insane, and it is not a momentary blip (which can boomerang lately) but a sustained thrust, EW impulse seems to often apply somewhat well to gold, and I like to trade that, and use trailing stop losses.

I agree with the daily range. When it hits the typical range, it's often done. I stopped intra-day trading today once it started floating around 1216-1220. My medium term gold short is still intact so hopefully that continues: "Also gold will drop sharply upon USD strength. Today's selloff is just the start."


Last time I really traded gold/silver was back in the 2011 craze, except then it was going up. "Hi ho silver away!" Back then, some days just seem to be volatile days, or breather days, or correction days. If you could figure out which day it was, it seemed easy to trade for the day. I seemed to have a good feel for when the irrational exuberance was on, and when it was overheated, and when it was Done(TM). If that sort of trading psychology starts to happen again, and it seems to be (albeit in a bit confused way), I think these are going to be some fun times!

I'm not sure we're supposed to advertise newsletters here so I mentioned the name of it via PM in case you're curious. They seem to agree on USD strength and are bearish on gold in the short and medium term.

GBP USD outlook today: Retail sales release scheduled for today (3 hours). Could be a mover.

GBP USD levels to watch for price reaction: UPSIDE 4180 // DOWNSIDE 4040. 4040 VERY STRONG support, price unlikely to drop below this level at least for today.
Possible low risk strategy - weak support @ 4084 break out enter SHORT trade TP 4040 SL @ open.

Alternatively (low probability) - if we break above 4140 LONG trade TP 4180 SL @ open.

NZD USD high probability levels for April. You go long @ the levels below and short at levels above.

AUD USD high probability levels for month of April

USD CAD high probability levels for month of April

GBP USD high probability levels for month of April

AUD NZD high probabilility levels for month of April

trade setups based on high probability levels April 2016

 

1. GBP USD LONG 3960-4000 SL 80 points TP 4500
2. NZD USD LONG 6720-6760 SL 80 points TP 7100
3. AUD NZD SHORT 1.1240-80 SL 80 points TP 1.0760

GOLD high probability levels month of April. Best strategy: buy low.

EUR USD PROJECTED PRICE MOVE. Starting from Monday-Tuesday pretty much new downtrend in EURUSD.

proposed trade setup: EUR USD short @ market open SL 1.1450 TP 1.1060

AUD NZD short order remains, revised to : AUD NZD SHORT 1.1340-80 SL 80 points TP 1.0560

supplementary to my brent oil live call.

updated EW H4 count. uptrend still intact.