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  • #921
  • Edited 3:12am Mar 31, 2016 2:53am | Edited 3:12am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} I disagree and maybe if you spent a bit of time watching the video above you might learn something! A lot of experienced traders use hedging techniques very successfully. Hedging is a just a weapon one can use at certain times and in certain situations. I probably won't be adopting the guy's hedging strategy in the video above. But please don't insult people's intelligence by saying that hedging in general doesn't work. That's why this thread started - people keeps getting their stop losses hit and blowing their accounts. Maybe if they employed...

Neinnnnnnnnnnnn !!




Just try using stop orders instead of stop loss. Same strategy. You'll see the equity dropping faster, because you're paying the spread twice .
  • #922
  • Mar 31, 2016 5:11am Mar 31, 2016 5:11am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} And yet, here you are, not quitting.
True.
And I would not wish it even on my worst enemies if I had any (:
  • #923
  • Mar 31, 2016 5:52am Mar 31, 2016 5:52am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Neinnnnnnnnnnnn !! Just try using stop orders instead of stop loss. Same strategy. You'll see the equity dropping faster, because you're paying the spread twice .

I tried to give you guys two examples earlier where hedging is a good strategy to employ. If you would read my posts properly you would see that I'm not advocating having two trades in opposite directions open at the same time. If one opens a trade at a significant support/resistance level and the price reacts backwards you can "hedge" by having an opposite trade. The intial trade hit your SL but just below/above you have an opposing trade. I often leverage up a little and have a small TP level - the idea simply being to end up break even. One can employ this kind of thing quite often
  • #924
  • Mar 31, 2016 6:14am Mar 31, 2016 6:14am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} I tried to give you guys two examples earlier where hedging is a good strategy to employ. If you would read my posts properly you would see that I'm not advocating having two trades in opposite directions open at the same time. If one opens a trade at a significant support/resistance level and the price reacts backwards you can "hedge" by having an opposite trade. The intial trade hit your SL but just below/above you have an opposing trade. I often leverage up a little and have a small TP level - the idea simply being to end up break even....
That would be stop and reverse not hedging. Doesn't work either (for me at least).
  • #925
  • Mar 31, 2016 9:01am Mar 31, 2016 9:01am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} That would be stop and reverse not hedging. Doesn't work either (for me at least).

I think it's time I said Good Bye to this thread - Long overdue!]

Ta ta
  • #926
  • Edited Apr 1, 2016 3:56am Mar 31, 2016 9:20am | Edited Apr 1, 2016 3:56am
enter "the recovery zone" inspired by J. Nemeth
I call it "a refined martingale system"
-for the illustration sake that numbers are volumes expressed in lots
-for ilustration the spread is ignored
-on the "buying line" and the "selling line" you open opposite positions
-the positions volume rising on a geometrical progression with ratio "q" (exception is position no.3, calculated separately)
-in the first example ratio is 2 (as classic martingale)
-in the second expl. ratio is 1.1 (it offers more shots but expands "the recovery zone" and the risk of being crossed too many times by the price evolution rises exponetially, and so the the risk to hit the margin call)
-the lower the ratio you use, the greater the size of the recovery zone, so the heavier reaching for the profit ..but it offeres more attempts
-any direction the price moves you win! ...BUT, the condition for the price is that it musn't cross too many times "the minus zone" ...and it will, most of the cases ending up in margin call
no more talk, jump to conclusions:
DON'T DO IT!you will win many times ...small gains, that makes it atracttive BUT some day the price will cross too many times the minus zone and you will lose an enormous amount ...just a matter of time
my friends and I have it backtested many times and there are no long term gains!
you are exposed to a serious "black swan" (Nassim Taleb's way)
JUST DON'T DO IT
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  • #927
  • Mar 31, 2016 9:48am Mar 31, 2016 9:48am
Quoting TudorIoan
enter "the recovery zone" inspired by J. Nemeth I call it "a refined martingale system" -for the illustration sake that numbers are volumes expressed in lots -for ilustration the spread is ignored -on the "buying line" and the "selling line" you open opposite positions -the positions volume rising on a geometrical progression with ratio "q" (exception is position no.3, calculated separately) -in the first example ratio is 2 (as classic martingale) -in the second expl. ratio is 1.1 (it offers more shots but expands "the recovery zone" and the risk...
Exactly, can't believe this is not obvious to all.
  • #928
  • Apr 1, 2016 5:16am Apr 1, 2016 5:16am
Quoting bagman
{quote} Ended this week with: -3.1%, wanted +10% F%#$ you market, I will exact revenge next week. Angry because anything below +5% feels like a waste of time. On the other side, I could see it as only slight damage compared to recent wins.
Er... you shouldn't get angry either or vengeful
  • #929
  • Apr 2, 2016 6:24am Apr 2, 2016 6:24am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Er... you shouldn't get angry either or vengeful
I avenged the loss this week. Got out with +12.5%. It is good to let the rage out, but then let it pass before trading.
Most revenge trade mistakes that cost me a lot of money when I was a clueless newbie could have been avoided if I had stayed away for a few hours instead of looking to repair the damage right after it happened.
Price-Action Extremist
  • #930
  • Apr 2, 2016 6:27am Apr 2, 2016 6:27am
Quoting hanover
About the video in post #908: it's been around YouTube for a few years now. In the version that I originally watched, near the end of the presentation one spectator pointed out a flaw in Mr Nemeth's system, drawing the latter into a brief debate which made Mr Nemeth look foolish, and causing the audience to titter with laughter. The video was then suitably edited and re-posted. When any system guarantees a 100% win rate, that's when I ensure that my due diligence (what's this?,...
I still think the best way to hedge is to not trade at all if something looks off. I trade skittish like a deer on a forest road. I see something in the distance, I run away.

Why is hedging being presented like it is some "pro" sophisticated technique? It is just your greed overcoming your caution so that you can not resist opening a trade and your caution is not strong enough to prevent it.

It is like being dumb enough to climb into a zoo cage with a tiger to pull its tail to see what happens. But being "smart enough" to wrap your hand in a towel to protect you from getting bit.
Price-Action Extremist
  • #931
  • Apr 2, 2016 6:42am Apr 2, 2016 6:42am
Quoting bagman
{quote} I avenged the loss this week. Got out with +12.5%. It is good to let the rage out, but then let it pass before trading. Most revenge trade mistakes that cost me a lot of money when I was a clueless newbie could have been avoided if I had stayed away for a few hours instead of looking to repair the damage right after it happened.
Perhaps have a punch bag in the garage?
  • #932
  • Apr 2, 2016 8:29am Apr 2, 2016 8:29am
Quoting bagman
{quote} I avenged the loss this week. Got out with +12.5%. It is good to let the rage out, but then let it pass before trading. Most revenge trade mistakes that cost me a lot of money when I was a clueless newbie could have been avoided if I had stayed away for a few hours instead of looking to repair the damage right after it happened.
You are the broker's nightmare.
  • #933
  • Edited 2:55pm Apr 2, 2016 10:52am | Edited 2:55pm
Folks, Trading is a BUSINESS. Some advises of mine to all of you thinking otherwise.
The wise thing to do is not playing it a know-it-all guy on this; as I suppose you exactly wouldn't do about anything serious situation that probably crossed your life.
When it comes to trading forex, hence when dealing with high leveraged instruments, this is like falling from a cliff but expecting to get away with it even like with no scratch at all.
It's amazing how people (we) are thinking sometimes. No risk awareness at all as if it were for a kindergarten's harmless playground.
Not trying to pick on any of you here, as this is what probably everyone's "thinking" - me included - was; after some "victories" in trading the markets. With having really no clue at all we brag saying "Huh, I know the game man ... now I'm gonna show them how they should do it".
The worth to mention fact is that when someone puts us the question of what it is needed in order one follows a profession and even more to be successful to it, we answer "Definitely, what's needed is study and more study under the best possible teachers to it".
And that's here what the paradox is.
Because, in trading - as newbies - we think completely the opposite. We put/risk our hard-earned money to something we know literally nothing about. That's why to this game sooner or later the 95% of the people are losing their money. The remained 5% usually called "The Elite" is successful not because they're having more brains than ours but just because they know simple things that all of us even we know about them we ridiculously chose to leave them aside.
As I already said above that's what was I in the past as well. Not trying to play it smart here. Just trying to help you think different. Do not make assumptions that will eventually cost you money you'll never going to see again. If you let your precious capital shrinking you'll finally get a margin call and then the game is over.
Winning the game, needs knowing the game after hard study and practicing with not real money first. If you'll be successful on that, then you should consider to try the real account
Be safe and always mind risk!
Cheers!

PS: I've changed my initial post because it could be misunderstood and give potentially wrong messages which is not to my intention.
  • #934
  • Apr 2, 2016 11:44am Apr 2, 2016 11:44am
Quoting pantelist
Do not make assumptions that will eventually cost you money you'll never going to see again. If you let your precious capital shrinking you'll finally get a margin call and then the game is over. To avoid that ask for help. Ask someone who knows to show you the way. I consider myself very blessed because I found such a support exactly when I needed it the most. After that I've studied a lot and I still am, under a mentor I believe he's exceptional. Main in his Methods is (a) Market can do anything, (b) Protect your Precious Capital and (c) Get...
There is no such thing as RISK FREE.
Don't mean to be cynical but it looks like you are trying to sell something.
And without watching the video, I think the answer is: CUT YOUR LOSS AND NEXT TIME DONT HOLD ON TO A TRASH TRADE. The video title makes it sound like you got trapped in an evil trade my some force of nature.
Seriously, hide your selling attempts a bit better. People actually fall for this?
Price-Action Extremist
  • #935
  • Edited 4:00pm Apr 2, 2016 12:32pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting bagman
{quote} There is no such thing as RISK FREE. Don't mean to be cynical but it looks like you are trying to sell something. And without watching the video, I think the answer is: CUT YOUR LOSS AND NEXT TIME DONT HOLD ON TO A TRASH TRADE. The video title makes it sound like you got trapped in an evil trade my some force of nature. Seriously, hide your selling attempts a bit better. People actually fall for this?
No my friend .. you are wrong but since there is even one person that arrives to this conclusion I've erased everything that might give you and anyone that feeling of advertising anything here ... because it was really not something I was after.
For as long as it matters I think that;
first of all you should watch the video and not assuming in advance what "it might be ... ". This is something that had happened a lot way back in time and if you had taken the time to watch it you'd probably had come with another statement. And there's a lot more than that to it but for me it's neither the place nor what I want to do.
Ok, there is such thing as a Risk Free Trade and I can't expect of anyone to know about it as I did not know it myself in the past. BUT my bad though and you're right on this as the way I wrote it was indeed false. So I've erased this from my post too to not bring/point to wrong conclusions and by it to confusion. RFT is a term ... a way in my trading which describes what I am after and it's not without risk when at the beginning of the trade ... Thus, sorry for that ... general idea is to reduce risk to zero ... when/if eventually is done so then a FRT has been achieved.
Again, nothing here to sell. I was trying to give my opinion through my true experience and NOT just by philosophy quoting as the most more than often try to do. "Selling" as you put it is by way far a different thing. You should of knowing that. Another one is that here we are talking about the real life. It's exactly where people are losing money. I gave a reason of why this is happening and how to try avoiding it. Cheers!
  • #936
  • Apr 2, 2016 1:31pm Apr 2, 2016 1:31pm
Quoting bagman
I still think the best way to hedge is to not trade at all if something looks off.......
Fair enough. My arguments regarding same-pair-hedging are largely mathematical and are covered in the links that I gave.
  • #937
  • Apr 2, 2016 2:07pm Apr 2, 2016 2:07pm
Quoting fxstaton
I have no luck in forex. Initial period I get profit, and few months all profits and capital are gone. I think I am not suitable in forex and will quit all and back to work
So, you plan to quit FOREX because you "have no luck in forex"?
Of course you always will be broken if you still believe in luck!
Is there have no such a thing like luck!
  • #938
  • Apr 2, 2016 3:14pm Apr 2, 2016 3:14pm
Quoting sad3
{quote} So, you plan to quit FOREX because you "have no luck in forex"? Of course you always will be broken if you still believe in luck! Is there have no such a thing like luck!
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  • #939
  • Apr 2, 2016 3:29pm Apr 2, 2016 3:29pm
Quoting hanover
Every sequence of same-pair-hedge transactions can always be replicated pip for pip, at every point along the way, by a single net position.
That is correct, however, the exact way you are closing the trade(s) matters a lot and could make huge difference in profits. I am using the "close by" approach. Depending on the closed lots, the profit could grow substantially, especially when closed in the lower spread offered. And closing with the close by is a very simple and easy when you are... hedged.

David, I read your posts with great pleasure. You seem to know the stuff you are speaking. I just want to give you a small hint you could possibly think over. I noticed you do not appreciate martingale. Neither do I, but I am forced to use it. Here is a little idea you can think over. How about, if you have a very good martingale-based strategy which normally would require an awful amount of capital to trade it (but you don't have it) and you start trading against it (which will involve you into... hedging it, fully or partially)? What do you think would happen?
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #940
  • Apr 2, 2016 3:46pm Apr 2, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting MasterGuru
{quote}{image}
Yes. Everything is result from our decisions and actions. Can you become successful trader without learning what is the market and how it works? Did you guess your trades 50/50 or do something more than that? Can you win lottery without buying a chance for it?
"Luck" is word, used by people with lack of knowledge and wisdom.
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