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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #481
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:05pm Mar 29, 2016 3:05pm
who said to go long Aussie??? Oh yeah, it was price action! Price Action is still the king, it told you yesterday(a whole day before yellen) to go long when it never could stay below .7500 AND never made a lower low on the 4hr chart. Last week was just a minor correction lower before another rally. The proof is in the charts I posted. And it's a good example of why I trade price action and not news numbers.

I hope a lot of you made lots of pips today! Cheers!
  • #482
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:12pm Mar 29, 2016 3:12pm
Quoting PA is King
who said to go long Aussie??? Oh yeah, it was price action! Price Action is still the king, it told you yesterday(a whole day before yellen) to go long when it never could stay below .7500 AND never made a lower low on the 4hr chart. Last week was just a minor correction lower before another rally. The proof is in the charts I posted. And it's a good example of why I trade price action and not news numbers. I hope a lot of you made lots of pips today! Cheers!
What an absolute nonsense post. It was 50/50 what Yellen would say. If she was hawkish, I bet you wouldn't be posting.
  • #483
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:22pm Mar 29, 2016 4:22pm
Quoting empo990
{quote} What an absolute nonsense post. It was 50/50 what Yellen would say. If she was hawkish, I bet you wouldn't be posting.
Go back a couple days, weeks...I've been posting bullish charts of the Aussie for a while.
  • #484
  • Edited Mar 30, 2016 3:13am Mar 29, 2016 5:28pm | Edited Mar 30, 2016 3:13am
Quoting empo990
{quote} What an absolute nonsense post. It was 50/50 what Yellen would say. If she was hawkish, I bet you wouldn't be posting.
Everything is in the charts my friend. There are major institutions with prior knowledge of her statement which trade big, so if it were hawkish, their actions would cause the charts to show a bearish outcome.

Everything is in the charts.

I also added to my longs before the speech, the writing was on the wall with this one:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post8840503
  • #485
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:32pm Mar 29, 2016 7:32pm
Nice job Sarcraftmaz! Nice post and analysis...enjoy those pips!
  • #486
  • Mar 31, 2016 8:11pm Mar 31, 2016 8:11pm
Hi PA! I know you've commented in the past about price acting strangely eg not much of a move down on bad news being a bullish signal

and I know it's very early days at present but A/U reaction to China positive news (jump up, then spike down without new high) seems strange.

Thoughts?

(Further complicated by spike down not appearing to last at present)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #487
  • Mar 31, 2016 8:24pm Mar 31, 2016 8:24pm
Hi dab, I think price is a bit overbought at the moment with 4 straight bullish daily candles and price at a psychological level of .7700. Combine that with NFP news in the morning price just might range overnight with spikes up and down. I see nothing to cause a sustained selloff and upside just might be limited until NFP. Hope that makes sense. Trade smart and carefully tomorrow.

Cheers!
  • #488
  • Apr 1, 2016 9:09am Apr 1, 2016 9:09am
good pullback today, based on the 4hr chart...it come down around .7560-80 area. That would meet normal ADR and the 4hr uptrend line. And it looks like .7700 area is the resistance level for the past couple of days.

Have a great weekend everyone!
  • #489
  • Edited 10:57am Apr 1, 2016 10:08am | Edited 10:57am
Looks like I'm off a little bit, price found A LOT of buyers around .7600 and bounced nearly 50 pips...all off this after good US news today. Bulls still in control.

Update: we've now rallied 80 from the lows of the days! Buy the dips proved profitable again!
  • #490
  • Apr 4, 2016 7:25am Apr 4, 2016 7:25am
Hi PA, I want put this longer term, weekly chart in here, thinking price might eventually want to get to 0.79 [maybe soon, maybe later].

http://fxpro.ctrader.com/images/screens/Qv0bn.png
  • #491
  • Apr 4, 2016 7:01pm Apr 4, 2016 7:01pm
Quoting rendite
Hi PA, I want put this longer term, weekly chart in here, thinking price might eventually want to get to 0.79 [maybe soon, maybe later]. http://fxpro.ctrader.com/images/screens/Qv0bn.png
Thank you for posting that chart, it looks good. Interesting price action to start the week. There was actually follow through on selling today and it seems .7700 is still resistance for now. Not a big bounce from .7600 like last week so I'd be cautious that a deeper pullback might come, possibly .7500??? Or maybe today was just a one day correction. Either way, I'm being careful.

Happy trading!
  • #492
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:26am Apr 5, 2016 4:26am
Yes. I would not be surprised if audusd were to go into a range [0.77 - 0.74] from here for a while. We'll have a better picture about this come the end of the week.
  • #493
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:48am Apr 5, 2016 9:48am
Well, can't really complain...had a feeling it was going towards .7500(as mentioned in my post above from last night) based on price action...Low so far for today was .7509. Pretty darn close imho. Still haven't seen the Lower Low or Lower High on the 4hr chart yet...but does seem like price has hit some strong resistance at .7700. rendite might be right...we could start ranging for a little bit until the market picks a direction again(too early for me to tell yet though). Right now...I'm leaving all options open(rally, pullback, range, etc...).

Trade Smart!
  • #494
  • Apr 6, 2016 11:11am Apr 6, 2016 11:11am
As expected, Buying dips on Aussie is still the preferred trade! Still haven't seen a Lower Low or Lower High on the 4hr chart yet. Price was unable to break below yesterday's lows...it barely came within 20pips of yesterday's lows but could never close below .7530!


I'm attaching a great 4hr chart to show you how to read price action. You'll see in this chart the first yellow box is the start of the week when FOMC interest rate decision was coming out. The first couple of days of the week the market sold off on Aussie and then rallied big after. This is EXACTLY how the "big traders" trade markets. If you want to Buy Aussie, you want to Buy it cheap right??? So you created a false selloff to start the week knowing that you are going to buy it just before FOMC news!!!

SAME EXACT thing to start out this week...fake 2 days of selling just before FOMC minutes release so they can BUY Aussie at a cheap price because they already know the FOMC minutes are going to weaken the USD.

If you can learn and recognize that this is how the markets work...and starting seeing it in real time, you'll be profitable. In the most basic form of rules, Follow the trend and Buy the Dips in an uptrend and Sell Rallies in a Downtrend!

I hope everyone is making lots of pips!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH4 010.png Size: 91 KB
  • #495
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:45pm Apr 6, 2016 7:45pm
Daily chart had a bullish inside bar today. Currently price just broke above it. Just something to point out.

Happy Trading!
  • #496
  • Apr 6, 2016 8:46pm Apr 6, 2016 8:46pm
Quoting PA is King
Daily chart had a bullish inside bar today. Currently price just broke above it. Just something to point out. Happy Trading!
I prefer the last 2 15 minute candles - 30 pip down in 30 minutes!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #497
  • Apr 6, 2016 9:39pm Apr 6, 2016 9:39pm
Quoting dab
{quote} I prefer the last 2 15 minute candles - 30 pip down in 30 minutes!
And how do you feel about the very next candle that rallies 20pips in 15 minutes back up to .7610? Did you buy the dip?
  • #498
  • Apr 6, 2016 9:53pm Apr 6, 2016 9:53pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} And how do you feel about the very next candle that rallies 20pips in 15 minutes back up to .7610? Did you buy the dip?
I wish! I've still been selling the rallies, with latest at 7615. Made some nice profits on the move down from 77 to 75 but still waiting for bigger falls to fix some other entries from March.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #499
  • Apr 6, 2016 10:48pm Apr 6, 2016 10:48pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} And how do you feel about the very next candle that rallies 20pips in 15 minutes back up to .7610? Did you buy the dip?
I shorted the high made 20 pips
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #500
  • Apr 7, 2016 2:28am Apr 7, 2016 2:28am
45 pips down in under an hour!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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