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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #54,221
  • Mar 27, 2016 11:37am Mar 27, 2016 11:37am
Thanks fti,
That clarifies a few things for me. Must admit I thought you would reject out of hand.
  • #54,222
  • Edited 7:46pm Mar 28, 2016 6:19pm | Edited 7:46pm
Quoting Sa7an
Thanks fti, That clarifies a few things for me. Must admit I thought you would reject out of hand.
this world full of thieves.
I still sing my scouts songs when i am happy.
happy and gay.
but these days , cannot let them hear me sing that i am gay.
otherwise might just get a stick in my ass.
Need protect my arse, from the neo hijackers.
They die and and disappear in 1 generation but they think they are hedged.
seems they have books teach em where to stick that thingy and they still gets it wrong.
me i had to learn it from trial and error. yet never got it wrong.
the key, its observation.
anyway, most good things in world, it gets stolen.


regards

was entertaining myself, watching some high tech grave robbers recently.
ooops grave cleaners.
where there is value, peeps will dig.

Inserted Video



PS: even the snails and WTF (fish) is smarter.
http://news.discovery.com/animals/female-fish-grows-testicles-makes-babies-160322.htm

those days the emperors were smart.
if he dies whole household and system 陪葬, so the assasin had to come from outside the system.
seems is better than the replacing the puppet system every few years.
  • #54,223
  • Mar 28, 2016 7:34pm Mar 28, 2016 7:34pm
http://americanmilitarynews.com/2016...m_campaign=alt
  • #54,224
  • Mar 29, 2016 2:34am Mar 29, 2016 2:34am
Quoting fti
{quote} this world full of thieves. I still sing my scouts songs when i am happy. happy and gay. but these days , cannot let them hear me sing that i am gay. otherwise might just get a stick in my ass. Need protect my arse, from the neo hijackers. They die and and disappear in 1 generation but they think they are hedged. seems they have books teach em where to stick that thingy and they still gets it wrong. me i had to learn it from trial and error. yet never got it wrong. the key, its observation. anyway, most good things in...
ROFLMAO
  • #54,225
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:12am Mar 29, 2016 3:12am
Quoting fti
{quote} this world full of thieves. I still sing my scouts songs when i am happy. happy and gay. but these days , cannot let them hear me sing that i am gay. otherwise might just get a stick in my ass. Need protect my arse, from the neo hijackers. They die and and disappear in 1 generation but they think they are hedged. seems they have books teach em where to stick that thingy and they still gets it wrong. me i had to learn it from trial and error. yet never got it wrong. the key, its observation. anyway, most good things in...
I'm still learning but seems as long as you can live with big dd's you can survive.

I started to use hedges when I kept getting stopped out and this just nibbles away at the account.
So now instead of taking a loss I just increase my dd - still learning and it sortof works so far
My broker also reduces the margin if hedged so opp cost is not so bad
  • #54,226
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:21am Mar 29, 2016 4:21am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} I'm still learning but seems as long as you can live with big dd's you can survive. I started to use hedges when I kept getting stopped out and this just nibbles away at the account. So now instead of taking a loss I just increase my dd - still learning and it sortof works so far My broker also reduces the margin if hedged so opp cost is not so bad
I know I may always be wrong, but I tried to "hedge" (or nedge, as some people call it) in the past, but don't do it anymore. Now I prefer to be with one trend, with low leverage. If the trend turns against me, I have to bite the bullet and start again.
  • #54,227
  • Edited 6:58am Mar 29, 2016 5:07am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} I'm still learning but seems as long as you can live with big dd's you can survive. I started to use hedges when I kept getting stopped out and this just nibbles away at the account. So now instead of taking a loss I just increase my dd - still learning and it sortof works so far My broker also reduces the margin if hedged so opp cost is not so bad
i have little tolerance for losses.
seems you are refering about loss hedges.
This off my playing fields. Not even on my scope.
My methodolgy f hedges is locking in profits on every maneuvers.
Mostly because my books were very big. Every small profits can feed lots minions.
On personal MO , This is as i said off my scopes.

regards

For understanding, every move lock in profits in fact neutralises delta risk exposures. Until the vol factor shifts again. vol not means volume.
Is means voli.

Inserted Video


PS by the way,just because i cannot carry the MO profitabily.
It does not mean that others could not do it.
Use your judgement and learn some.
Mostly i not think i can fly to the moonthese days even not able fly around our marble.

Maybe i just say it this way.
From my experiences, it makes no sense locking losses. when reopening the position only accords you continuation stance.
will disturb unbiasness.
Anyway it does nothing for the book except encumbering capital.
Unless forced to, i would not take my troopers into engagements, with insufficient ammo.
This is s capitals game. Is hard win battle with insufficient ammo, same.
  • #54,228
  • Mar 29, 2016 5:34am Mar 29, 2016 5:34am
Hope all had a safe Easter holi (especially FTI) and Phil did not get hit by any trees.

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,229
  • Mar 29, 2016 5:38am Mar 29, 2016 5:38am
Quoting alexandria
Hope all had a safe Easter holi (especially FTI) and Phil did not get hit by any trees. Regards


this year had a cute call.

regards
Attached Image
  • #54,230
  • Mar 29, 2016 5:53am Mar 29, 2016 5:53am
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  • #54,231
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:47am Mar 29, 2016 7:47am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} I'm still learning but seems as long as you can live with big dd's you can survive. I started to use hedges when I kept getting stopped out and this just nibbles away at the account. So now instead of taking a loss I just increase my dd - still learning and it sortof works so far My broker also reduces the margin if hedged so opp cost is not so bad
Hi, just my opinion,

i don't think increasing dd is the way to go, because you sort of need to plan your expected dd ahead of time, like when is position so sunk that it might be better off to start anew. whats taught here is instead of trading full contract size as one would with a 1 entry trading style, we trade many times smaller than what that would be. lets say, if the standard is 1lot for a 1 entry method, we decompose them into maybe 20 units of 0.05lots and deploy them, and we add to and adjust the position as the market manifests, which is the attack and rescue. However, re-averaging should only be used when impulse is in your favour, so if you add to counter impulse, u can kill your book really fast. But if your position is scout only, and you experience counter impulse, it is often better to flip than to re-average as you are with the trend now, given that you are still near the inception of the counter impulse move, and can easily attack with impulse and have lesser exposure in terms of risk while still recovering book value lost because of scout. there is alot of experience involved when learning to flip and turn on wind, to differentiate between a position that is ok to rescue and a position which could be dealt better with by flipping. its all about managing exposure, and reading the markets and trying to be in line with the markets.
So, the read comes first, then the mm can help you, otherwise even though mm can help you to stay alive, but you might end up with death by a thousand cuts if you mis-manage and misread what the market is doing, or a big blow up. so to see if you are trading well, it would be good to see what is the drawdown experienced per session, vs the profits per session, and if your profits exceed your drawdown, it means you are managing well.
  • #54,232
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:52am Mar 29, 2016 7:52am
Quoting fti
{quote} this year had a cute call. regards {image}
Mnnnn ,.... interesting pose

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,233
  • Mar 29, 2016 8:09am Mar 29, 2016 8:09am
Quoting fti
{quote} this year had a cute call. regards {image}
i like the cats, so cute. someone told me, a cat makes for a good housemate, a dog makes for a good playmate.
i wonder, what makes a good housemate & playmate and able to change at will to different mode? aiya, best of both world or none at all.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,234
  • Mar 29, 2016 9:20am Mar 29, 2016 9:20am
Quoting fti
{quote} i have little tolerance for losses. seems you are refering about loss hedges. This off my playing fields. Not even on my scope. My methodolgy f hedges is locking in profits on every maneuvers. Mostly because my books were very big. Every small profits can feed lots minions. On personal MO , This is as i said off my scopes. regards For understanding, every move lock in profits in fact neutralises delta risk exposures. Until the vol factor shifts again. vol not means volume. Is means voli. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdZ9P_tWFSw...
This is s capitals game. Is hard win battle with insufficient ammo, same

I prefer to look at it as conserving ammo until the time to strike arrives.
  • #54,235
  • Mar 29, 2016 11:02am Mar 29, 2016 11:02am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} i like the cats, so cute. someone told me, a cat makes for a good housemate, a dog makes for a good playmate. i wonder, what makes a good housemate & playmate and able to change at will to different mode? aiya, best of both world or none at all.
eeeeer soulmate?cannot find.is just illusion.regards
  • #54,236
  • Mar 29, 2016 11:05am Mar 29, 2016 11:05am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} This is s capitals game. Is hard win battle with insufficient ammo, same I prefer to look at it as conserving ammo until the time to strike arrives.
illusion.
always have enough and contingencies is all one can ask for.
there is no indicator for either to be invoked. or how extensive a battle will be.
Its all by feel and your agenda.
no one can conquer the whole world.
If detect felt wrong , withdraw immediately before gets in trouble.
otherwise , thr rice. its cooked.
If they cook, you eat.
AND the bigger your POT, the more the burnt rice.


regards
  • #54,237
  • Mar 29, 2016 11:28am Mar 29, 2016 11:28am
Quoting fti
{quote} illusion. always have enough and contingencies is all one can ask for. there is no indicator for either to be invoked. or how extensive a battle will be. Its all by feel and your agenda. no one can conquer the whole world. If detect felt wrong , withdraw immediately before gets in trouble. otherwise , thr rice. its cooked. If they cook, you eat. AND the bigger your POT, the more the burnt rice. regards
ty fti(and all) appreciate ur input but let me explain why I started hedging in first place.....

I am bullish silver and cannao see much downside from her. Indeed I started to go long at 16.

So I thought as I'm long anyway and rather than take a loss I thought/think it'll turn but I mught as well take a profit on the way down while I wait - so I am hedged til it turns.
  • #54,238
  • Mar 29, 2016 11:52am Mar 29, 2016 11:52am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} ty fti(and all) appreciate ur input but let me explain why I started hedging in first place..... I am bullish silver and cannao see much downside from her. Indeed I started to go long at 16. So I thought as I'm long anyway and rather than take a loss I thought/think it'll turn but I mught as well take a profit on the way down while I wait - so I am hedged til it turns.
noted.
a couple questions to crystalise your mind.
1. you bullish, its going down you say..
2. you do realise that because you mind is fixated on being bullish you have opportunity loss on the sell, which is whats happening.
3. you seem thinks markets goes up and down only. somtimes they stay ranged for long periods.esp if they trying find major tops or bottoms. loss opportunity cost scalp the range.

Anyway markets will teach.no worries. The possibilities are endless.


regards
  • #54,239
  • Mar 29, 2016 11:57am Mar 29, 2016 11:57am
Quoting fti
{quote} noted. a couple questions to crystalise your mind. 1. you bullish, its going down you say.. 2. you do realise that because you mind is fixated on being bullish you have opportunity loss on the sell, which is whats happening. 3. you seem thinks markets goes up and down only. somtimes they stay ranged for long periods.esp if they trying find major tops or bottoms. loss opportunity cost scalp the range. Anyway markets will teach.no worries. The possibilities are endless. regards
  • #54,240
  • Edited 12:20pm Mar 29, 2016 11:59am | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting fti
{quote} noted. a couple questions to crystalise your mind. 1. you bullish, its going down you say.. 2. you do realise that because you mind is fixated on being bullish you have opportunity loss on the sell, which is whats happening. 3. you seem thinks markets goes up and down only. somtimes they stay ranged for long periods.esp if they trying find major tops or bottoms. loss opportunity cost scalp the range. Anyway markets will teach.no worries. The possibilities are endless. regards
Inserted Video


eeeer someone else can post the "who the ------------------alice."


PS: maybe if you not understand the alice syndrome.
Try see if you can find the nelson bunker hunt story somewhere, maybe a lesson to be had, here and there.
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