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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #461
  • Mar 16, 2016 10:13pm Mar 16, 2016 10:13pm
Your analysis is definitely possible with how strong the uptrend is geppy. We may not get a pullback. The 1hr pinbar could be voided out soon. I think the point of my post was, if you aren't already long Aussie, then be patient and wait for a dip to buy...don't buy the highs right now. Cheers!
  • #462
  • Mar 16, 2016 10:32pm Mar 16, 2016 10:32pm
I like to trade keeping fundamentals in mind but as of late as everyone can see the AUD is trending against fundamentals.

On the charts what you are seeing is a pullback/correction on the monthly.

Since the start of the down trend (march 2013) after every big drop the aud retracted around 600 to 800 pips, always to the previous support level with a monthly candle of around 500 pips then straight back down again. The current retractment is 750 pips.

The 1st drop (from the peaks) 1700 pips, 2nd 1100 pips, 3rd 1900 pips and the last 1200 pips. If the pattern continues and depending where the current price holds we could be in another drop of around 1800pips which will bring us to around the .60 level.

When the economy is booming we get rising share prices, rising commodity prices, rising overseas investment and reserves, easier and bigger flow of money , rising interest rates, rising dollar, until we reach a peak.

​Then we get a contraction and a recession, the reverse happens.

We are at the current stage just before a recession, we have yet to have the falling real estate values and when this happen we are there.

Once the recession has bottomed out this will bring rise to a recovery and expansion, the cycle repeats its self.

I dont think we are yet to see the bottom of the cycle.

​This morning the aud jumped up over 100pip. This had nothing to do with aud strength but fundamentals of the US Federal Reserve.

If I were awake at the time I would of probably went long on aud and picked up 50 pips, however I have new shorted at .75900 with a sl at .76200

​C-Trader sentiment is still 75% short

I am up 5.3% this week and if I take a loss here its only .64%
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #463
  • Edited 11:01pm Mar 16, 2016 10:43pm | Edited 11:01pm
Thank you for the input PaulDaemon. Another good perspective!


Side note/update...after two hours and no selling, I'm considering that 1hr bearish pinbar void.
  • #464
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:40am Mar 17, 2016 12:40am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Just my opinion, man but I'd bail out of those shorts. I've been buying AUD/USD all week... it's broken higher on the daily and out of a major, long-term downtrend. There's no saying how far she could run, but my first target is 0.7815 which is the 38.2% fib retracement from the weekly chart's last major down move starting June 30th, 2014!
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I know how you feel, been there and done that many of times. Recognizing it is key, regroup, and form a new plan...I'm sure you'll get all those pips back.
I've decided to take the loss (13%), and move on.

I opened these positions at a time when a relative passed away, of which I just should have never done (it wasn't a planned trade). This is also the second bad lot of trades I've made this year.

I've been getting into this bad habit of trading against the trend and opening multiple positions when I just simply shouldn't have done so.

I have now learnt my lesson and will recover.

Happy trading
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #465
  • Mar 17, 2016 3:15am Mar 17, 2016 3:15am
I am in 4 long positions and as I am writing this, the rally has seen an upward move of 200pips in less than 24hours. Not sure if there will be any dip but with the current momentum, the north bound train is not going to stop anytime soon.
  • #466
  • Mar 17, 2016 8:08am Mar 17, 2016 8:08am
Just like every other day the past few weeks...Any good news creates an initial dip on A/U and followed by a rally! Great Philly manufacturing data today, yet the Aussie doesn't care and is now up 35pips from the "dip."

This is why I always said don't trade the news number, but how the market reacts to the news. If the market still rallies the Aussie after good US news, then the market is bullish on Aussie no matter what. Cheers!
  • #467
  • Mar 17, 2016 11:28am Mar 17, 2016 11:28am
Quoting FxLapozi
I am in 4 long positions and as I am writing this, the rally has seen an upward move of 200pips in less than 24hours. Not sure if there will be any dip but with the current momentum, the north bound train is not going to stop anytime soon.
Yup, still holding long and strong baby!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #468
  • Mar 18, 2016 10:25am Mar 18, 2016 10:25am
It appears we have a nice little pullback today and price finding support just above .7600 making a Higher low. Next week we should get a retest or break of the highs near .7680.

Have a great weekend everyone!
  • #469
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:13am Mar 18, 2016 11:13am
Quoting PA is King
It appears we have a nice little pullback today and price finding support just above .7600 making a Higher low. Next week we should get a retest or break of the highs near .7680. Have a great weekend everyone!
Yep, really just consolidating the week's gains. I too expect more northbound PA next week. Holding my position and happy to collect the swap
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #470
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:22pm Mar 18, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Yep, really just consolidating the week's gains. I too expect more northbound PA next week. Holding my position and happy to collect the swap
You have a better broker than me...I get charged a lot when short A/U. But even when I'm long, I still get charged a small amount of swap. Doesn't seem right.
  • #471
  • Mar 22, 2016 8:48am Mar 22, 2016 8:48am
Buying the dips on Aussie is still paying off! Good support around .7570 area...it's tested that area Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday now...each time rallied up above .7600. Top side has been a bit limited though, so don't look for any home runs right now. Price seems to have settled into a .7560-7620(roughly) range to start off the week.

Happy Trading!
  • #472
  • Mar 23, 2016 3:22pm Mar 23, 2016 3:22pm
No long setups today, in fact it was a rather decent selloff. I'll try to post some charts later, but for now it appears the 1hr and 4hr charts are indicating a further pullback may come. Can't tell if the uptrend is done for now or not though. Might be safe to trade both ways again.
  • #473
  • Mar 23, 2016 6:32pm Mar 23, 2016 6:32pm
Quoting PA is King
No long setups today, in fact it was a rather decent selloff. I'll try to post some charts later, but for now it appears the 1hr and 4hr charts are indicating a further pullback may come. Can't tell if the uptrend is done for now or not though. Might be safe to trade both ways again.
Thats right PA maybe a wait and see day mate,look forward to the charts
  • #474
  • Mar 23, 2016 6:35pm Mar 23, 2016 6:35pm
Audusd is changing direction to the south
atheer1
  • #475
  • Mar 23, 2016 7:53pm Mar 23, 2016 7:53pm
Well, it's still too early for me to tell whether this is a trend change or just a larger pullback. We'll need some more time/data to verify, but it looks like the start of one at least. I've attached a 1hr and 4hr chart of just Price Action where I formed my bias.

Happy Trading!

p.s. one other thing I'd like to add on the 4hr chart, if the .7400 level doesn't hold... then .7250-7300 would be the next support level I'd expect to see! And one other thing, if you are going to short...remember to Sell the Rallies! Don't Sell the Lows!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH1 020.png Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH4 008.png Size: 109 KB
  • #476
  • Mar 24, 2016 7:01am Mar 24, 2016 7:01am
Hi P.A. Looking at 4HR, 2HR and 1HR charts, I believe IF we drop to about .701 we will have a Head and Shoulder pattern. Break below that would indicate potential 230 pip drop to .678 Alternative of course would be bounce up off that very important S/R level.
  • #477
  • Mar 24, 2016 8:51am Mar 24, 2016 8:51am
Quoting Blackopal
Hi P.A. Looking at 4HR, 2HR and 1HR charts, I believe IF we drop to about .701 we will have a Head and Shoulder pattern. Break below that would indicate potential 230 pip drop to .678 Alternative of course would be bounce up off that very important S/R level.

I see what you are saying on the 4hr chart...hard for me to see it on the 2hr and 1hr charts though. Just my opinion, if that were to happen on the 4hr chart(price drop to .701 that is)...that "H&S" pattern would be too wide of a pattern for me. I personally like to see them formed in a smaller time(width) if you know what I mean. To put it another way, with it taking so long to form the H&S pattern, the less probability of it actually working imho. Again, that's just for how I like to trade.

Thank you for the "heads up" though on something to look for! hehe
  • #478
  • Mar 28, 2016 8:50am Mar 28, 2016 8:50am
Hope everyone had a good holiday break! Here's a couple charts to start out the week. Overall, I'm still bullish on the Aussie but also see some possibilities of short trade setups. Overall, the 4hr chart is still trending up that's why I give more weight to longs. Trade carefully, Trade Smart! One can probably make pips trading both directions this week if you're patient to Sell Rallies and Buy Dips!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH1 021.png Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH4 009.png Size: 119 KB
  • #479
  • Mar 28, 2016 4:52pm Mar 28, 2016 4:52pm
Hi PA. It's also worth noting that on the run up, the AUD had a dip down to about .7415 on the daily chart, to form a low. During this correction the lowest low on daily is about .7477. So it has not formed a lower low on daily.
  • #480
  • Mar 28, 2016 5:05pm Mar 28, 2016 5:05pm
Quoting Blackopal
Hi PA. It's also worth noting that on the run up, the AUD had a dip down to about .7415 on the daily chart, to form a low. During this correction the lowest low on daily is about .7477. So it has not formed a lower low on daily.
Good eye Sir!
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