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PVSRA Scalping with Cigarguy

  • #2,241
  • Mar 27, 2016 4:01pm Mar 27, 2016 4:01pm
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} ozziedave, Excellent question but to give it the answer that it deserves will require a bit of history and a prolific explanation. I am not a statistical guy, so I can't throw out a bunch of numbers or percentages in answer to your R/R question as I am sure many here can. Cigarguy
Very nice response Cigarguy. I also believe you need to find a trading style that fits your personality and I have always been drawn to scalping the shorter time frames. Once you figure out a set of trading rules and can consistently apply them then you reduce your risk substantially. I do think that most traders are looking for consistency in their trading approach and ways to control risk.

I believe trading the PVSRA methodology gives us that edge.
  • #2,242
  • Mar 27, 2016 4:11pm Mar 27, 2016 4:11pm
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} Very nice response Cigarguy. I also believe you need to find a trading style that fits your personality and I have always been drawn to scalping the shorter time frames. Once you figure out a set of trading rules and can consistently apply them then you reduce your risk substantially. I do think that most traders are looking for consistency in their trading approach and ways to control risk. I believe trading the PVSRA methodology gives us that edge.
ozziedave,

Tried to answer you comment with a quick response, but there is so much to the background of PVSRA trading/scalping it just kinda kept flowing and got long winded..I didn't intend on writing a novel and putting some traders to sleep.....
Keep It Simple
  • #2,243
  • Mar 27, 2016 4:31pm Mar 27, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} ozziedave, Tried to answer you comment with a quick response, but there is so much to the background of PVSRA trading/scalping it just kinda kept flowing and got long winded..I didn't intend on writing a novel and putting some traders to sleep.....

Great response Cigarguy!!!

If other traders are sleeping through this they are missing some gems of wisdom.
  • #2,244
  • Mar 27, 2016 4:41pm Mar 27, 2016 4:41pm
Great post Cigarguy, it kept me awake .

Am I right in thinking that back testing a system like this is not really helpful ? When trading live it seems like I have a much better sense of where the market is going... Something like momentum is (I think) seen while looking at the candle movement/speed...

Am I on the right track? Thanks for sharing Cigarguy!
  • #2,245
  • Mar 27, 2016 5:22pm Mar 27, 2016 5:22pm
Quoting thedrrew
Great post Cigarguy, it kept me awake . Am I right in thinking that back testing a system like this is not really helpful ? When trading live it seems like I have a much better sense of where the market is going... Something like momentum is (I think) seen while looking at the candle movement/speed... Am I on the right track? Thanks for sharing Cigarguy!
thedrrew,

Maybe someone else can answer your question re: back testing as I have never back tested a system in my life. I did have a small live account and always studied, observed charts, asked questions and traded live on that account...I have heard so many opinions both pro and con so I just jumped in when I felt I was ready.....Sorry
Keep It Simple
  • #2,246
  • Mar 27, 2016 5:44pm Mar 27, 2016 5:44pm
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} thedrrew, Maybe someone else can answer your question re: back testing as I have never back tested a system in my life. I did have a small live account and always studied, observed charts, asked questions and traded live on that account...I have heard so many opinions both pro and con so I just jumped in when I felt I was ready.....Sorry
Ok no problem. Your answer is interesting though. Back testing in my opinion is overrated...

I was asking since I understand we are stalking for momentum and looking at old charts, it is hard for me to predict it(for the next hidden bar). We can look at volume and seeing it rising from one bar to the next, but the next bar might have very small volume which is something I can't predict when not trading live. Actually back testing this methodology made me think it wasn't that good until I traded it live and started to watch the current candle speed and movement (while trying to keep in mind the whole picture of course).

Here is another question; is momentum primarily something you predict(based on structure) or something happening in the "now"(based on speed and movement) ?

Sorry if I am not very clear English is not my first language. Cheers!
  • #2,247
  • Mar 27, 2016 6:07pm Mar 27, 2016 6:07pm
Quoting thedrrew
{quote} Ok no problem. Your answer is interesting though. Back testing in my opinion is overrated... I was asking since I understand we are stalking for momentum and looking at old charts, it is hard for me to predict it(for the next hidden bar). We can look at volume and seeing it rising from one bar to the next, but the next bar might have very small volume which is something I can't predict when not trading live. Actually back testing this methodology made me think it wasn't that good until I traded it live and started to watch the current candle...
thedrrew,

I think your making this a bit too difficult by over analyzing. Watch PA on your chart located relative to key levels, the 50 ema and 200 ema. Don't confuse yourself at this point with fibs, pivots or other indicators, for now just keep it simple. Look at your M5 chart for example for the short term trend to begin with. Once you become proficient with these T/F's for additional PVSRA confirmation you can look at higher T/F's M15, H1 and higher for longer term trends which are more reliable.

So for simplicity sake, when M1 retraces away from the M5 trend, watch PA and volume for indications when the M1 PA re-joins the M5 trend and then look for notable volume. This is over simplification but its a start to learning and watching for retraces. ozziedave and I posted several charts this week end with some pretty good examples. You may want to study them and watch your charts to identify the same.

A high volume indication does not always equate to momentum. MM's can make one big order and you may get a big green candle and big green volume tick but with no momentum. Momentum will be present during a active trading session LO, NYO etc., not much usually during Asia, but sometimes yes but lots of retraces, so can be dangerous.

If you location permits, trade LO, Frankfurt and NYO for starters. activity and volatility will give you momentum that means the MM's and big money are active and riding along with them will get you to your winners.

Hope this helps
Keep It Simple
  • #2,248
  • Mar 27, 2016 6:58pm Mar 27, 2016 6:58pm
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} thedrrew, I think your making this a bit too difficult by over analyzing. Watch PA on your chart located relative to key levels, the 50 ema and 200 ema. Don't confuse yourself at this point with fibs, pivots or other indicators, for now just keep it simple. ...
You are probably right. I tend to over analyze.

I will take your advice and look for those setup as posted this weekend which I found very interesting indeed.

Thanks for your reply and happy green week to all!
  • #2,249
  • Mar 27, 2016 6:59pm Mar 27, 2016 6:59pm
UJ M1 +6 reduced to 1 lot due to Sunday Asia low volume and lacking momentum trader interest.

Note: chart type fas = based
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snapshot2016-03-27_16-52-35_USDJPYi_b_M5.png Size: 57 KB
Keep It Simple
  • #2,250
  • Mar 27, 2016 7:01pm Mar 27, 2016 7:01pm
thedrrew,

The above chart is a good example of what appears to be high notable volume which is actually just institutional orders with little trader participation....as I mentioned in my post answering your questions above with no momentum........
Keep It Simple
  • #2,251
  • Mar 27, 2016 7:18pm Mar 27, 2016 7:18pm
Quoting thedrrew
{quote} You are probably right. I tend to over analyze. I will take your advice and look for those setup as posted this weekend which I found very interesting indeed. Thanks for your reply and happy green week to all!
thedrrew,

Relax and practice you'll do fine. If trading FX was easy everyone would have a million or two......
Keep It Simple
  • #2,252
  • Mar 27, 2016 7:26pm Mar 27, 2016 7:26pm
UJ M1 Scalp +6 with reduced lots again for same reasons.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snapshot2016-03-27_17-25-56_USDJPYi_a_M1.png Size: 49 KB
Keep It Simple
  • #2,253
  • Mar 27, 2016 7:31pm Mar 27, 2016 7:31pm
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} thedrrew, Relax and practice you'll do fine. If trading FX was easy everyone would have a million or two......
... And milk would cost much more ! haha

I'll try to post some trade based on the setup this week. Let see if I can keep calm and wait for it...
  • #2,254
  • Mar 27, 2016 7:34pm Mar 27, 2016 7:34pm
Quoting thedrrew
{quote} ... And milk would cost much more ! haha I'll try to post some trade based on the setup this week. Let see if I can keep calm and wait for it...
thedrrew,

Their you go. Just chill, relax and post some trades as their are many good traders here to help....
Keep It Simple
  • #2,255
  • Edited 8:59pm Mar 27, 2016 8:24pm | Edited 8:59pm
First trade of the new week. NZDUSD 5 min chart.

We've made a new daily low early in the Asian session and formed a 30 min pin bar. I know this entry doesn't look that great but I actually clicked the buy button on the downswing at 0.6672 but there was almost a 4 pip spread so it looks like I entered at the top of the up candle. The probability of a second leg up was great seeing we've made a new daily low so early in the Asian session. There was a slight 4 pip draw down, basically the spread and then pop...5 pips in a few minutes and out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDM5 28.3.16.png Size: 78 KB
  • #2,256
  • Mar 27, 2016 9:11pm Mar 27, 2016 9:11pm
UJ M5 +6 Explanation on chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYiM5.png Size: 110 KB
Keep It Simple
  • #2,257
  • Mar 27, 2016 9:57pm Mar 27, 2016 9:57pm
Quoting ozziedave
First trade of the new week. NZDUSD 5 min chart. We've made a new daily low early in the Asian session and formed a 30 min pin bar. I know this entry doesn't look that great but I actually clicked the buy button on the downswing at 0.6672 but there was almost a 4 pip spread so it looks like I entered at the top of the up candle. The probability of a second leg up was great seeing we've made a new daily low so early in the Asian session. There was a slight 4 pip draw down, basically the spread and then pop...5 pips in a few minutes and out. {image}...
ozziedave,

I like to hear a trader say "pop +5 and out" music to my ears...........
Keep It Simple
  • #2,258
  • Mar 27, 2016 10:08pm Mar 27, 2016 10:08pm
Quoting cigarguy
UJ M5 +6 Explanation on chart... {image}
What is blue circle on your chart bellow entry? thank you
  • #2,259
  • Mar 27, 2016 10:13pm Mar 27, 2016 10:13pm
Quoting ruma29
{quote} What s blue circle on your chart bellow entry? thank you
ruma29,

That is the half number key level for support & resistance. I was depicting on the chart that Price attempted to break that resistance 3 times and was rejected. I entered after the break. After my entry, PA retraced and tested that level this time as support ( resistance turned support) before continuing to my T/P.

Hope that helps...
Keep It Simple
  • #2,260
  • Mar 27, 2016 10:28pm Mar 27, 2016 10:28pm
AU M1 scalp +6 with reduced lots due to session and Easter. Explanation on chart and forgot to note on chart that PA is coming from Demand area...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snapshot2016-03-27_20-26-52_AUDUSDi_a_M1.png Size: 58 KB
Keep It Simple
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