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  • #12,461
  • Mar 23, 2016 6:24pm Mar 23, 2016 6:24pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Sold NKE April 15th 56.5/60/69/72.5 for a 1.03 credit. I generally don't like to go this far out in time for an earnings play, but just couldn't get the strikes I wanted for the longs closer in time ... .
Out for a $51/contract profit ... . Had me getting itchy there with the down turn, but got an IV collapse assist ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,462
  • Mar 23, 2016 6:34pm Mar 23, 2016 6:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
One of my short-term engagement trades to pass the time: RUT April 1st 1055/1065/1120/1130 iron condor. Looking for a fill at 2.60-ish. You have to fiddle mightily with getting a fill at the mid; price will dance +/- .10 cross it ... .
Out of the call side of this setup for a $126 profit/contract.

Rolled the 1055/1065 to the April 8th 1050/1060 to give it slightly more room and time (ain't much) for a $4 debit. Will sell another call side against tomorrow ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,463
  • Mar 23, 2016 6:39pm Mar 23, 2016 6:39pm
Sold ACAD April 15th 11 put for 1.12 credit

IVR 89/IV 259%

Metrics:

Probability of Profit: 78%
Max Profit: $112/contract
BPE: ~$990 (not cheap, I know, but premium's hard to find of late)

I put this bugger on today, after which ACAD proceeded to tank a bit, so you might be able to get a fill at a bit better price than 1.12 or go even to the 10 strike.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,464
  • Mar 23, 2016 6:55pm Mar 23, 2016 6:55pm
GME's on my radar (earnings announcement tomorrow after market close). It's not looking particularly productive; won't be able to squeeze a 1.00 credit out of any setup unless there's a bit of an uptick in IV during tomorrow's session (never know; might happen). The standard fare short strangle setups I looked at are only yielding $75 or so at the moment, and that doesn't pass ZebraSquirl earnings play muster ... .

Otherwise, more hand sitting ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,465
  • Mar 23, 2016 9:41pm Mar 23, 2016 9:41pm
Quoting The Fool
yawn.....only one 2-day run of daily red candles since 2/9.....I suppose we can afford another one?.....we'll see tomorrow, maybe oil slide will continue and help out, Fed heads talking about ooooh big bad rate hikes, I'm so scared.....maybe I better but on some Apr expiry long vol trades....?
​Apr FOMC is in the Apr5 week
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,466
  • Edited 10:21pm Mar 23, 2016 10:10pm | Edited 10:21pm
equities look toppish but set to dither, maybe a good chance to put on a kinda tight IC.....Apr5 = 37 dte, if the Fed heads keep squawking about Apr ffr hikes then $205 might hold SPY until then.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,467
  • Mar 24, 2016 1:48pm Mar 24, 2016 1:48pm
careful heathen, US markets closed for Good Friday tomorrow - see ya next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,468
  • Mar 24, 2016 1:48pm Mar 24, 2016 1:48pm
Quoting The Fool
equities look toppish but set to dither, maybe a good chance to put on a kinda tight IC.....Apr5 = 37 dte, if the Fed heads keep squawking about Apr ffr hikes then $205 might hold SPY until then.
thought better
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,469
  • Edited 3:05pm Mar 24, 2016 1:49pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting The Fool
​Apr FOMC is in the Apr5 week
filled the VXX Apr4/Apr5 $25 call calendar @ 16c....also 15c....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,470
  • Mar 24, 2016 4:41pm Mar 24, 2016 4:41pm
Quoting The Fool
yawn.....only one 2-day run of daily red candles since 2/9.....I suppose we can afford another one?.....we'll see tomorrow, maybe oil slide will continue and help out, Fed heads talking about ooooh big bad rate hikes, I'm so scared.....maybe I better but on some Apr expiry long vol trades....?
SPY closed near flat and now up 20c+ in AH, just barely 2 red candles, the 2nd m/l a doji....I have to bet the bastards keep pushing bull next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,471
  • Mar 24, 2016 6:44pm Mar 24, 2016 6:44pm
Sold RUT April 8th 1100/1110 short call vertical for a 1.61 credit to hedge the short put spread I rolled down one strike and out another week to give it more time and room.

The resulting setup's an April 8th 1050/1060/1100/1110 iron condor. I'll shoot to take the whole thing off at 50% max or lather, rinse, repeat if a side nears worthless ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,472
  • Mar 24, 2016 6:45pm Mar 24, 2016 6:45pm
Sold GME April 8th 27/32.5 short strangle for a .94 ($94) credit ... .

I usually like to do these for no less than a buck, but, hey, close enough ... .

Post-announcement AH, GME's down $2 to about 28.10, so I should be good to go assuming I get a vol crush assist and price doesn't move much going into expiration.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,473
  • Mar 24, 2016 6:58pm Mar 24, 2016 6:58pm
Next up: LULU (announces earnings on Wednesday before market open) ... . 1.24 credit would be nice for this setup, but I don't think I'm going to see these prices Tuesday (.92 low/1.24 mid/1.55 high):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,474
  • Mar 24, 2016 7:16pm Mar 24, 2016 7:16pm
Quoting The Fool
equities look toppish but set to dither, maybe a good chance to put on a kinda tight IC.....Apr5 = 37 dte, if the Fed heads keep squawking about Apr ffr hikes then $205 might hold SPY until then. {image}
I can get a 1.00 out of an Apr 29th SPY 190/193.5/209/212.5 (it's slightly tighter on the put side by a strike or two than I usually like to go), but with earnings season coming up, I think there are better places for me to apply my buying power. I also don't want to put on one of those setups in this low vol environment, only to have vol suddenly pop on me ... . So, when VIX dropped below 15, I did the TastyTrade recommended thing and put on some SPY IC action 100 DTE. It's not the way I like to go, but without much premium out there to sell closer in time, I figured it would keep a little bit more of my buying power engaged.

Otherwise, working the uber short end of the stick with these <14 DTE RUT's, which will keep me out of boredom territory for a bit ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,475
  • Mar 24, 2016 8:00pm Mar 24, 2016 8:00pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I did the TastyTrade recommended thing and put on some SPY IC action 100 DTE. It's not the way I like to go, ... .
not fer this un - I still think the roadmap looks like a bull run into earnings season & then a nice hard slide into June.....nobody wants to be left holding the bag when all the summertime fun starts.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,476
  • Mar 25, 2016 2:52am Mar 25, 2016 2:52am
Brexit event trade ideas posted elsewhere

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post8835573
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,477
  • Mar 26, 2016 11:15pm Mar 26, 2016 11:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} not fer this un - I still think the roadmap looks like a bull run into earnings season & then a nice hard slide into June.....nobody wants to be left holding the bag when all the summertime fun starts.....
Yeah, not a highly productive methodology; at best, it's just a desperate attempt to sell premium/up your theta decay number a touch. Best to either hand sit, work long vol setups, or piddle about with earnings, frankly ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,478
  • Mar 27, 2016 12:32am Mar 27, 2016 12:32am
long yen?....JPY will cruise back up and FXY will see $95+ in a big risk-off summer meltdown....the call vert show would go full banana and you'd net out about 75-80c on a 20c stake
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,479
  • Mar 27, 2016 12:45am Mar 27, 2016 12:45am
Quoting The Fool
long yen?....JPY will cruise back up and FXY will see $95+ in a big risk-off summer meltdown....
if it does all that and you're in the mood to risk 30c - you can do the Sept $92/$95 calls vert - debits 30c to make a max $3.00 - 30c - comms or maybe $2.50+ if the yen really jets over the summer
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,480
  • Mar 27, 2016 1:09am Mar 27, 2016 1:09am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} will be looking to take long VOL calls next week may have to take a series of them ranging from 3 months out to a year, short term volatility is just about ready. Love to see VIX near 12 just for a short term play of 3 months
handsit, maybe out to the end of April, Cecil, I really will not be surprised to see April run the ^VIX down into new atl territory....then we will see what the Q1 earnings season does (expectations are very low)...and we will see if the Apr FOMC does what they shoulda done in March......yep I am expecting spoos to grind up maybe 100 pts maybe 150 in the next 3-4 weeks....call me kwazy I know......but if there's gonna be a chance for a bull run it is right here right now and if there ever was a sellinMaygoAway summer fixing, it'll be Summer 2016....honestly I think this will be one to tell the Grandkids about....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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