PVSRA Scalping with Cigarguy | Page 112 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis) 8,487 replies

PVSRA Scalping EA 1,290 replies

PVSRA Scalping 13 replies

Scalping M5 with PVSRA / 10pips Daily 64 replies

PVSRA Scalping 0 replies

Attachments: PVSRA Scalping with Cigarguy
Exit Attachments

PVSRA Scalping with Cigarguy

  • #2,221
  • Edited 3:19pm Mar 26, 2016 2:54pm | Edited 3:19pm
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} ozziedave, I do look for and trade a modified A - B - C pattern with PVSRA confirmation. I edited your posted chart with notations I believe pretty much coincide with your annotations except I noted PVSRA considerations and PA break of B as an Aggressive entry and the entry past B as a Conservative entry. (as depicted on the chart) which is kinda like splitting hairs as each move would have produced winners) Please let me know what you think as this is the kind of open discussion of ideas that I have encouraged for this thread. Some traders...
Hey Cigarguy..


I'm just new to PVSRA so by all means edit away. My charts are just offering some general insight on trading. I sure with our combined experience we can get people up to speed and trading PVSRA on a consistent manner and save them alot of trail and error in the process.

As you well know it takes people years and years of chart time to finally come up with a methodology that is consistently profitable that fits their trading style.

I believe that your take on PVSRA trading is one of the best scalping systems I've seen. Taking 5 pips plus outta the market and progressively building your lot size just makes sense to me.

Hitting 100-300 pip home runs is nice but doesn't happen all that often to the average trader and even if it did most of us would never be able to use larger lots sizes due to the stop loss that we would need to employee.

So keep up the good work Cigarguy!
  • #2,222
  • Mar 26, 2016 3:09pm Mar 26, 2016 3:09pm
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} Hey Cigarguy.. I just new to PVSRA so by all means edit away. My charts are just offering some general insight on trading. I sure with our combined experience we can get people up to speed and trading PVSRA on a consistent manner and save them alot of trail and error in the process. As you well know it takes people years and years of chart time to finally come up with a methodology that is consistently profitable that fits their trading style. I believe that your take on PVSRA trading is one of the best scalping systems I've seen. Taking...
ozziedave,

Thanks glad NP with my editing your charts..... Through the years I have traded every t/f and made pips, but more then not, got frustrated going for those mega pips only to watch retraces & pullbacks turning winners into losers...

Once I started scalping with less market exposure and FIFO scalps, my stress level decreased and consistently had more quick pips banked. As I have said many times before "Trading is not a one size fits all business" and each trader must find what works for them... I found what works for me and hope all do the same either here or elsewhere......
Keep It Simple
  • #2,223
  • Mar 26, 2016 3:25pm Mar 26, 2016 3:25pm
Hey Cigarguy I see you posted your take on reversals and pullbacks. Kinda funny as I was working on some charts before I went to bed last night showing my take on reversals. Great minds think alike...lol.

I'll post my charts so I can get your feedback.

Here is the 15 minute chart showing we are in an up trend and we get that first pullback candle to alert us to drop down to the 5 minute chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM15 E 1 26.3.16.png Size: 79 KB
  • #2,224
  • Mar 26, 2016 3:29pm Mar 26, 2016 3:29pm
Chart 2 is a 5 minute chart showing the ABC corrective pullback. So we're looking for a long set up to get back into the trend. Note we make point B as price needs to come back to that level to consider going long again. Keep in mind we never really know where price will go next or how far it will travel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM5 E2 26.3.16.png Size: 69 KB
  • #2,225
  • Mar 26, 2016 3:30pm Mar 26, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} . As I have said many times before "Trading is not a one size fits all business" and each trader must find what works for them... I found what works for me and hope all do the same either here or elsewhere......
Very true indeed.
  • #2,226
  • Mar 26, 2016 3:33pm Mar 26, 2016 3:33pm
Quoting cigarguy
EU M1 failed scalp +1, low volume Friday and no bearish follow through but each trade offers a learning experience and something can be gleamed....volume and good momentum is so critical for a successful quick FIFO scalp which was not present here......... {image}
I like your trades overall. But not this one . But this one is a prime example why you should not take everything thats out there. But great that you post those as well and put your very true explanation with it. Well done.
  • #2,227
  • Mar 26, 2016 3:41pm Mar 26, 2016 3:41pm
In this 5 minute chart we see that price continues down and makes a new low and breaks and closes below the purple line, which is the last higher low before making a new high. Some people would denote this is the last structure low and if this is broken it's a heads up that price might be going lower. Note we are now below the 200 ema and the dragon. Price pulls back into and above the dragon but never goes back to point B which is the critical level that needs to be broken to the up side if we are to consider going long again.

We get a second break and close below the 200 ema and dragon and at this point I would start to look for short set ups as the structure low has been broken with momentum. Now keep in mind that market is fractal and what looks to be a reversal on the 1, 5 or 15 minute charts may only be a pull back on the 1, 4 hr or daily chart. The good thing as PVSRA tarders we don't need 100 pip runs to make money. The other thing to keep in mind is that you may not recognize this as a reversal pattern or pull back right away, depending on your experience level, but following these guidelines will keep you from taking bad trades with a low probability of success.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM5 E3 26.3.16.png Size: 81 KB
  • #2,228
  • Edited 5:04pm Mar 26, 2016 4:05pm | Edited 5:04pm
Quoting ozziedave
In this 5 minute chart we see that price continues down and makes a new low and breaks and closes below the purple line, which is the last higher low before making a new high. Some people would denote this is the last structure low and if this is broken it's a heads up that price might be going lower. Note we are now below the 200 ema and the dragon. Price pulls back into and above the dragon but never goes back to point B which is the critical level that needs to be broken to the up side if we are to consider going long again. We get a second break...
ozziedave,

Nice charts as usual but maybe a bit more of a PVSRA confirmation needed IMO with no mention of PA to Volume allowing for strong momentum to a quick t/p.

The A B C charts patterns are helpful as you indicate to signal potential retraces and reversals. Once the retrace or reversal is recognized, then stalking begins for a high probability PVSRA entry.

I think the longer you hang with us you will quickly eyeball the high momentum candles confirmed by the high volume bars and notice how they often (not always of course) will quickly run PA to t/p as we are grabbing the shirt tails of the MM's and Big Money and going along for the ride .....for FIFO scalping, it's all about momentum, momentum and momentum and the patience to watch and recognize for entries with little or no DD's and keep in mind we are targeting only a quick 5 +/- pips with lot sizes increases based on the traders account size and risk threshold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM5 E3 26.3.16.png Size: 265 KB
Keep It Simple
  • #2,229
  • Mar 26, 2016 4:35pm Mar 26, 2016 4:35pm
Keep the notations coming Cigarguy as I need a master class on volume.
  • #2,230
  • Edited 5:08pm Mar 26, 2016 4:49pm | Edited 5:08pm
Quoting ozziedave
Keep the notations coming Cigarguy as I need a master class on volume.
ozziedave,

Interesting comment because for years I paid no attention to volume knowing, unlike trading stocks and other instruments, Forex does not have a central clearing house where all volume is indicated as the same. As you know, all FX volume is somewhat different as Broker volume, but then upon comparison of different Brokers, I found the tick volume is so close as to not make a difference as many Brokers use Helsinki.

I am by no means an expert but I did learn how to observe and associate a PVSRA entry with PA and high Volume as confirmation.

Once I begin to pay attention to volume while trading on the old PVSRA thread and recognizing the relationship it has to PA the light came on. Now I cannot make a trade without watching PA and Volume indicating high momentum.

Just by observing the previously posted charts, one can see with almost every winning trade there was an entry on a high volume candle and volume bar.

I was stubborn and it took a long time before I viewed FX volume as a credible trading indicator....
Keep It Simple
  • #2,231
  • Mar 26, 2016 5:18pm Mar 26, 2016 5:18pm
Quoting SeaTheStars
{quote} I like your trades overall. But not this one . But this one is a prime example why you should not take everything thats out there. But great that you post those as well and put your very true explanation with it. Well done.
SeaTheStars,

Agreed, I should not have taken that trade on a Friday with low volume and traders closing positions for the weekend. My Bad, as I was bored, reduced my lots and entered and then closed quickly as PA stalled with only +1. Over trading is a bad habit that I continually fight.... Oh well, no loss and at least capital preservation to fight another day....
Keep It Simple
  • #2,232
  • Mar 26, 2016 6:17pm Mar 26, 2016 6:17pm
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} ozziedave, Interesting comment because for years I paid no attention to volume knowing, unlike trading stocks and other instruments, Forex does not have a central clearing house where all volume is indicated as the same. As you know, all FX volume is somewhat different as Broker volume, but then upon comparison of different Brokers, I found the tick volume is so close as to not make a difference as many Brokers use Helsinki. I am by no means an expert but I did learn how to observe and associate a PVSRA entry with PA and high...

Can't say I ever paid much attention to volume as every Forex broker was different as you say. I am starting to see the value of looking at volume in conjuction with the quality of the trade set up.
  • #2,233
  • Edited 6:55pm Mar 26, 2016 6:19pm | Edited 6:55pm
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} Can't say I ever paid much attention to volume as every Forex broker was different as you say. I am starting to see the value of looking at volume in conjuction with the quality of the trade set up.
ozziedave,

Yes indeed and soon you will be PRO.....and then your posted trades will include a volume comment as it becomes an important consideration choosing in your entries.........
Keep It Simple
  • #2,234
  • Edited 6:02am Mar 27, 2016 5:36am | Edited 6:02am
Hey CG. I see you actually traded on Easter and the day before! I gave up after making 5 pips on 24th and did not trade at all on Easter. EU had a Hi to Low of 28 pips the entire day. Moved 3 pips/hour lol... But you still managed to milk +1 from it! Hats off to you.

Quoting Ccx10A
{quote}..... we have to be aware of the deterioration of the method as more and more traders are sharing similar entry and exit points and utlising the same trading concept/method. And edges are extremely hard to come by nowadays!
Hi Ccx, I understand the point you are trying to make, but I have to disagree with it. Here is why -

1. There are literally hundreds of (successful) systems posted on various trading forums and websites. Naturally, that means there are equal number of hundreds of "edges".

2. Since these are all public information, some of the very oldest and most common systems, like moving average crosses, should have lost its edge a long time ago, because more and more people would have learned it by now. I think even my grandma knows about it lol. But if you look up "Choros System" here in FF, it is based exclusively on only moving averages and people are still making money from it in 2016!

3. To me, having an edge in trading is not knowing about a secret indicator or a proprietary system, known exclusively to a few elite. An edge is simply knowing and understanding a set of rules that makes sense to you personally. I myself could never profit from moving avg, MACD, Stoch/RSI, TDI crosses etc.

For some reason, I just dont like looking for crosses and so called overbought and over sold conditions, even though I see traders swearing by them and making pips. I am more of a changing color type trader (volume color in this case), which is why I liked this PVSRA scalping by Cigarguy, even though it does involve a moving average (two in fact), but it is not dependent on crosses. Also it mixes Price Action and S/R, which is easier for me to process. So, the volume analysis is the only "edge" in this system. But you could easily substitute another "edge" keeping the rest the same.

4. In summary, I want to say there is no shortage of edges. Every trader has to decide what kind of edge he likes and is comfortable with. There was a great veteran trader called "Gleneagles" on FF who proved that he could make money with indicators and then he showed how to make money with just horizontal lines on M5 charts (famous Dust Bin system). He was the one who said he knows of a woman in Singapore who trades full time (with big money) trading with NO indicators, just naked charts. Trading pure Price Action is also an edge, and that is also a very old edge, which should have lost its advantage by now but it hasnt.

So, I would not worry about losing any edge. Like CG posted earlier that the FX market actually grew to 5.4 Trillion/day! When I started, I read about 1-2 Trillion back in 2004. It is virtually impossible for anyone to monopolize the market with any kind of edge, because we simply do not know where market sentiment will go next. Not even George Soros can do it.
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
  • #2,235
  • Mar 27, 2016 6:30am Mar 27, 2016 6:30am
Quoting digiff
4. In summary, I want to say there is no shortage of edges. Every trader has to decide what kind of edge he likes and is comfortable with. There was a great veteran trader called "Gleneagles" on FF who proved that he could make money with indicators and then he showed how to make money with just horizontal lines on M5 charts (famous Dust Bin system). He was the one who said he knows of a woman in Singapore who trades full time (with big money) trading with NO indicators, just naked charts. Trading pure Price Action is also an edge, and that is also...
Digiff

I would not assume there are hundreds of systems on public forums with a edge. 95% of retail traders are losing money so they are not trading with any advantage even though they may think they have one. Most of the systems posted here on FF do not have a statistical edge or advantage. Markets do change over time but a system with a real edge will usually not turn into a losing system.

One of the biggest issues trading for 5 pip gains is how do you keep your win/loss ratio high enough that when you take a loss it doesn't take back all of your gains and then some.
  • #2,236
  • Mar 27, 2016 6:32am Mar 27, 2016 6:32am
digiff,

I did make that small +1 pip trade on Friday but Easter Sunday in the US is today.....

Happy Easter to All
Attached Image
Keep It Simple
  • #2,237
  • Mar 27, 2016 6:36am Mar 27, 2016 6:36am
Happy Easter to you to... Cigarguy!
  • #2,238
  • Edited 7:18am Mar 27, 2016 7:06am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting ozziedave
{quote}95% of retail traders are losing money so they are not trading with any advantage even though they may think they have one. Most of the systems posted here on FF do not have a statistical edge or advantage. Markets do change over time but a system with a real edge will usually not turn into a losing system. One of the biggest issues trading for 5 pip gains is how do you keep your win/loss ratio high enough that when you take a loss it doesn't take back all of your gains and then some.
That is a different topic. I was merely pointing out that there are no shortage of successful systems, and hence no shortage of edges. The 95% you are talking about will lose regardless of what system they are trading. They can be trading PVSRA, THV, TMS, Genesis, Extreme TMA, Alien System, Sam Seiden etc.... or even a system by Soros, Warren Buffett...... and still not make money. Everyone of those systems have an edge which is why so many people are making pips, yet others are still losing.

Like I said, if a system is solid, it is upto the trader to understand it and should make sense to him, or else it is of no benefit even with an edge.

Regarding the 5 pip gain, it is the same thing if you trade Udine's system or "Dayscalping with high leverage". Many will argue that the win/loss ratio is unreasonable and doomed to fail, but once again, people are still making pips and others are losing.
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
  • #2,239
  • Mar 27, 2016 7:07am Mar 27, 2016 7:07am
Quoting cigarguy
digiff, I did make that small +1 pip trade on Friday but Easter Sunday in the US is today..... Happy Easter to All {image}
You are right. Sorry, I meant trading on Good Friday, not Easter lol... Green pips when you return.
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
  • #2,240
  • Edited 1:45pm Mar 27, 2016 12:24pm | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} Digiff I would not assume there are hundreds of systems on public forums with a edge. 95% of retail traders are losing money so they are not trading with any advantage even though they may think they have one. Most of the systems posted here on FF do not have a statistical edge or advantage. Markets do change over time but a system with a real edge will usually not turn into a losing system. One of the biggest issues trading for 5 pip gains is how do you keep you win/loss ratio high enough that when you take a loss it doesn't...
ozziedave,

Excellent question but to give it the answer that it deserves will require a bit of history and a prolific explanation.

I am not a statistical guy, so I can't throw out a bunch of numbers or percentages in answer to your R/R question as I am sure many here can. What I have learned since I took the successful old PVSRA system which was traded primarily on M15 and morphed it into a M1\M5 scalping system that has proven to give far more winning trades then losers. Another unexpected benefit was my trading became much more relaxed not having to watch a trade for long periods of time being whip sawed up and down by market makers stop hunting and playing their silly games. I observed that PA many times would move in either direction approximately 5 or 10 pips and then retrace and often turning a winning trade into a losing trade taking out stops. For some time I traded another 5 pip system along side of my M15 PVSRA system and then later adapted PVSRA to the current M1/M5 scalping system that proved to be very profitable while setting the same 5 pips targets.

I think and hope by now that FX traders do understand that banks and MM's do communicate and trade between themselves as institutions as do some Brokers trading against their Clients. All is not fair or legal in the FX trading world due to a lack of regulation and oversight.

During my years of trading I have spoken with some retired Institutional FX traders who have confirmed their evil side ie., MM's know exactly where they want price to go and use the Red News as we call it, as a catalyst for their move which often has no relativity to the actual news events and YES they do stop hunt and talk from institution to institution discussing their strategies.

OK, what I am getting at is if we understand how the FX game is played and then decide to play with the big boys with the odds against us how do we play and stay in the game. Well we know as small retail traders we most certainly cannot beat them as they have big money so as it goes "If you can't beat them join them" and that leads us to learning and implementing our PVSRA scalping skills.

First of all personally, I want to trade in and out or FIFO as it is so coined with very little time allowing for market exposure to fall victim to the MM's and their stop hunting and methods of head fakes and price manipulation to steal our money. PVSRA is the only tool that I have come across that is close to visually giving us any edge at all. I realize that some may argue that their are many systems offering this edge but I have not found one and I have tried most.

Ok, so most here hopefully agree that PVSRA is a sound trading system so now we have our trading tool and have learned to watch PA, S & R and key psychological levels as well as throwing volume and maybe fibs and pivots into the mix.

Now after rambling to the heart of your and others question;

We as traders/scalpers, to become or stay successful, must have patience to watch and stalk for high probability PVSRA trades for a quick 5 +/- pips. Since my implementation of the PVSRA scalping system my losses have been very rare and seldom. When I do incur losses, it is due to "my not trading with the rules", it is no system fault. Scalping as we do FIFO risk and reward are almost non-existent. We should not only stalk for the PVSRA entry but once entered watch each trade like a hawk and if it does turn against us quickly close. I have entered many PVSRA trades where the momentum was so great that it hit my t/p within seconds. I personally only set a 20 pip emergency hard stop (which has never been hit) and a mental one of approximately 5 pips, I guess that's a 1:1 R/R which is rarely hit or I may close at BE which is also seldom. We all know as traders that we cannot know where price will go and can only use our tools as an edge and if wrong close. Another opportunity will present itself soon and a close at BE or 2 or 3 pips can be recovered quickly. I will often adjust my lot size up or down based on the current currency momentum, session or other news events either coming or past.

I realize these statements are against all that is traditionally taught about risk and reward but this is how I trade and I know other scalpers that are quite successful and they agree as skilled scalpers that they give R/R little consideration while scalping tick or M1 charts using only small mental stops and a emergency as I do in case of a system failure. ( I am sure this statement will bring comments and criticism as a scalpers mind set is totally different from a position trader)

It cannot be taught and very difficult to explain, but I have found that trading and scalping in particular is extremely visual and after many hundreds of hours of screen time the trader will acquire a feel or since of where the trade is headed by watching PA and implementing the PVSRA training learned. If wrong, quickly close and continue stalking for another that will soon come along. I have a friend who is a Surgical Nurse and her stories regarding Doctors and surgical procedures, although obviously not in the same arena of importance, do have some similarities She said that she has assisted many Doctors and some have pretty much the same background and training but some have the special touch, sense or feel while performing a surgical procedure and others do not. Scalping is a skill and is easy for some to learn and become proficient and difficult for others.

So how do we trade PVSRA and this is only my opinion with a few suggestions as there are many more;
(I am sure most of heard this many times but here is my take anyway to help reduce losses absent R/R considerations)

1) Learn PVSRA
2) Stalk only 3 or 4 currency pairs and watch them carefully and learn how they move ie., some trend quite nicely and others mostly ranging
3) Trade sessions where the volatility is high with good momentum
4) No trading around news time unless very experienced
5) Trade accounts with money you can afford to lose not house, grocery money or money for your babies shoes
6) Practice, practice and practice on a small live account as I am not a big fan of demo's. Traders need to feel the pressure of pulling the trigger with real money no matter how small or large. I have seen many traders make excellent trades on demo accounts and fall apart when pulling the trigger when live as its a total different psychological stress.
7) Don't over trade (my big problem) and make nice pips during LO and NY only to give back during AO with many retraces
8) Chose one system that fits your personality, time available to trade, account balance and stay with it and learn it well. It is easy to bounce around FF and find pretty Black Box systems or systems with lots of pretty squiggly lines that usually don't work
9) Learn and understand how the FX market really works allowing the trader to grab the MM's momentum on a high probability PVSRA trade and go along for the ride
10)Don't fall in love with a trade and get emotional, if it goes against you let it go as there will be many more capital preservation is critical to lengevity
11) There are many more attributes and I am sure most here have heard them all and many I forgot to include. If you determine that scalping PVSRA is for you, stick with it study, learn, practice and ask questions. To become a successful professional at any trade or career one must invest countless hours and lots of money to succeed. All is offered here and on other threads at FF FREE OF CHARGE.

Sorry for the large prolific answer but I have received PM's on the same subject and ozziedave brought that to mind so I decided to give my take here. As always any on topic questions or suggestions are always welcomed.

If anyone does not like my large post, it's ozziedav's fault he had to make his comment....lol...just kidding ozziedave Thanks for your comment I needed to answer it before your post anyway per PM requests but just didn't have time until now on the week end.........

I am certain that some of the older traders will say Bla, Bla, Bla heard this all before but maybe a few new traders will hopefully gleam a point or two that may be of help......

Stay GREEN My Friends
Cigarguy
Keep It Simple
4 traders viewing now