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The Swamp

  • #1,801
  • Mar 25, 2016 6:01pm Mar 25, 2016 6:01pm
А great week for me , a good weekend guys !
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  • #1,802
  • Edited 9:27pm Mar 25, 2016 8:43pm | Edited 9:27pm
i may short e/cad sunday with that H on the chart as a stop. 1.4836+ spread. and target 1.4303 area.. i do expect it to go higher later. atm level has about a 30 pip risk stop for the norm of 500 pip level. on the long after 1.4303, targeting near 1.8150. entry on it would be after 1.4303.. with some type of bottoming pattern evidence (1.4303/1.2178) i suspect for that level to hold monday, (drop in oil for entry)oil would need to rise to continue e/cad drop. so i can possibly take that short, 1.4836 ish short with a very small stop, very close to 1.4836. stop will probably be less than 6 pips. entry 1.4834/36 ish.. being wrong will cost me 6 pips..
i may have missed the boat.. st has setup 1.4688 already / 4711 looks like a givme. maybe 56.xx brent norm can weigh in later to carry 1.4303.. then 14 brent to give 1.8










=
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,803
  • Edited Mar 26, 2016 10:49pm Mar 25, 2016 11:03pm | Edited Mar 26, 2016 10:49pm
Quoting Ken A
.............. I don't mind let the small bird go for bigger bird {image}
Stick to the plan .......... the bird may stop growing

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Quoting gatorinla
i may short e/cad sunday with that H on the chart as a stop. 1.4836+ spread. and target 1.4303 area.. i do expect it to go higher later. atm level has about a 30 pip risk stop for the norm of 500 pip level. on the long after 1.4303, targeting near 1.8150. entry on it would be after 1.4303.. with some type of bottoming pattern evidence (1.4303/1.2178) i suspect for that level to hold monday, (drop in oil for entry)oil would need to rise to continue e/cad drop. so i can possibly take that short, 1.4836 ish short with a very small stop, very close...
Got long from 1.46 - will risk this one for bigger bird

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Quoting EasyGame
А great week for me , a good weekend guys ! {image}
12 trades not enough measurement of performance - maybe after 1000 or 2000 trades to measure consistency

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  • #1,804
  • Mar 25, 2016 11:25pm Mar 25, 2016 11:25pm
6mill.$ trader http://www.forexfactory.com/adam.#ac...ab.list-page.1
...
really???
  • #1,805
  • Mar 25, 2016 11:51pm Mar 25, 2016 11:51pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Stick to the plan .......... the bird may stop growing {image} {quote} Got long from 1.46 - will risk this one for bigger bird {image} {quote} 12 trades not enough measurement of performance - maybe after 1000 or 2000 trades to measure consistency {image}
one of my favorites in red, 2 hump.. the little dt next to it, i was gonna squeeze one. the red one looks to want 1.444.. that norm a little lower 4303
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,806
  • Mar 25, 2016 11:53pm Mar 25, 2016 11:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} one of my favorites in red, 2 hump.. the little dt next to it, i was gonna squeeze one. the red one looks to want 1.444.. that norm a little lower 4303 {image}
Maybe ......... I won't use Thursday price for Crude, Brent, Gold and equities as any indication of future moves due to long weekend.
  • #1,807
  • Mar 26, 2016 12:11am Mar 26, 2016 12:11am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Maybe ......... I won't use Thursday price for Crude, Brent, Gold and equities as any indication of future moves due to long weekend.
uj to me in the same boat..i have it due to drop, anytime
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,808
  • Mar 26, 2016 3:17am Mar 26, 2016 3:17am
Interesting dive under 1.11 after retail close hours
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #1,809
  • Mar 26, 2016 9:14am Mar 26, 2016 9:14am
Quoting JustAndy
Interesting dive under 1.11 after retail close hours
if it was true, then it hit 1100 norm.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,810
  • Mar 26, 2016 9:25am Mar 26, 2016 9:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if it was true, then it hit 1100 norm.
Gator, on what basis do you the euro still going up? I know you have it going up for a test of at least the 1,17 area. But the monthly looks like it is going to be another wick. Fundamentally there seems no reason for it to go up. UJ also looks poised to go up a few hundred pips. All this coupled with the brexit fears, don't you think it can only go down from here?

Thanks also for starting up this new and informative thread.
  • #1,811
  • Mar 26, 2016 9:38am Mar 26, 2016 9:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if it was true, then it hit 1100 norm.
where is s&p headed gator. usd.jpy seems to be disjuncted from s&p and is not signalling a risk on. why has s&p rallied 12.4% in less than 1.5 months.
  • #1,812
  • Mar 26, 2016 9:49am Mar 26, 2016 9:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if it was true, then it hit 1100 norm.
10 min after close; could also be an XE glitch
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Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #1,813
  • Mar 26, 2016 10:09am Mar 26, 2016 10:09am
definitely an XE glitch
  • #1,814
  • Mar 26, 2016 10:34am Mar 26, 2016 10:34am
Quoting ceetee
{quote} Gator, on what basis do you the euro still going up? I know you have it going up for a test of at least the 1,17 area. But the monthly looks like it is going to be another wick. Fundamentally there seems no reason for it to go up. UJ also looks poised to go up a few hundred pips. All this coupled with the brexit fears, don't you think it can only go down from here? Thanks also for starting up this new and informative thread.

sure eu can go down. uj can go up. normal fundamentals of rate differential agree. many tech traders say eu is going down. i also have a valid 1.029x target. even then it would probably return to 1115 again at some point after LL.

tech wise in the way i read charts the eu can go up, and the uj lower. in most moves certain things happen before. those things are still undone. the uj is my real driver for thinking eu can go higher. it's normal for the uj to go to 100.50 ish. it may or may not push eu to test 1.17xx. the thing is the eu never retraced to 1.22. something i consider a normal retrace before a drop. just like uj 100.5.. it's also has built also 1.2470 target. to me test of 1.17 is not a big thing. a test of 1.17 would cancel 1.029x.
the evidence is it has dropped w/o making a higher high after the last 6 day candles . that drop st norm may be at 1100. i may be wrong about rise. on the other hand we are here from 1.05xx.. i was right about it and reaching 1086/1115 in november. since then the fed raised rates, and the eu is higher. since the the ecb loosened and the eu went higher. placing those interest rate fundies on their head. lots of explanations given after the opposite move. the same reaction yen wise verse usd. this is indicative of the normal interest rate fundies not working. it's indicative the fed, ecb and boj have lost it. china is playing a role in screwing lots of smart people.. they stated they were no longer letting the euro enjoy the benefits of eu drop over the yuan usd peg.
can i give a fundi reason eu can rise.. maybe, china can help. in another theory euro and yen being funders can get stronger with redemptions. china/equities crashing creates a funding hole. usd stronger sure.. it normally works that way most times. but what if the last 25 years the boj has printed. what if china did the same. what if we have 25 years of funders needing to redeem to keep profits long and short term. what if the world needs a reset..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,815
  • Mar 26, 2016 10:53am Mar 26, 2016 10:53am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} where is s&p headed gator. usd.jpy seems to be disjuncted from s&p and is not signalling a risk on. why has s&p rallied 12.4% in less than 1.5 months.
i could be wrong.. go back and read months ago. i have a summer 2013 target on s/p or deeper.. but before a dead cat on equities across the board was expected. it's been posted for any who cared to read.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,816
  • Mar 26, 2016 11:02am Mar 26, 2016 11:02am
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} 10 min after close; could also be an XE glitch {image}
i saw that.. it was a nice place.. oanda used to keep charts running over the weekend. a few times they had some moves i used as real in my charts. not sure about xe..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,817
  • Mar 26, 2016 11:25am Mar 26, 2016 11:25am
Double top is valid for 1.0274 w/out a HH

norm already satisfied

first stop 1.05509

If the high is beaten I'd like to enter 1.0948
  • #1,818
  • Edited 12:08pm Mar 26, 2016 11:38am | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Double top is valid for 1.0274 w/out a HH norm already satisfied first stop 1.05509
yes, 1.02xx. that would make the larger 1.2470 invalid. on the other hand. thurs/friday struggled with 1160 um. 1.1711/1.0461.. atm on the north side of 1086 and 1115. 1.029x built on a news drop quickly reversed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,819
  • Mar 26, 2016 3:17pm Mar 26, 2016 3:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sure eu can go down. uj can go up. normal fundamentals of rate differential agree. many tech traders say eu is going down. i also have a valid 1.029x target. even then it would probably return to 1115 again at some point after LL. tech wise in the way i read charts the eu can go up, and the uj lower. in most moves certain things happen before. those things are still undone. the uj is my real driver for thinking eu can go higher. it's normal for the uj to go to 100.50 ish. it may or may not push eu to test 1.17xx. the thing is the eu never...
Thanks for the elaborated reply, much appreciated. The move after the ECB meeting seems strange looking at the measures they took there. In my opinion, no matter what was decided there, they were gonna take the Euro up, seems like a pure technical move. They just are trying to fit reasons after the fact, that is how I see it. Monthly and Quarterly can form wicks again. Looking at the yearly chart, 1,183 was broken support, the lowest wick on the yearly was 1,164. Is just difficult to see any fundamental reasons for such a move, especially if the FED would surprise hike in april, could the EU go up in case of a surprise hike?
  • #1,820
  • Mar 26, 2016 7:12pm Mar 26, 2016 7:12pm
Breakdown of Clinton investigations

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