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US Existing Home Sales 64 replies

Existing Home Sales, and the effect on USD? 4 replies

USD Existing Home Sales

  • #21
  • Aug 23, 2006 9:12am Aug 23, 2006 9:12am
+ 12 pips on the spike up.
  • #22
  • Aug 23, 2006 9:21am Aug 23, 2006 9:21am
Well did pretty well on this one. The numbers seemed to be off a good bit.

Entered long EUR/USD before the news @ 1.2831 and sold @ 1.2847.

UP 16 pips ($16 in my mini account)

Happy Day, I finally got a winner and even when I lose I dont worry as much, because I am starting to gain faith that my method can work as long as I stick to it.
  • #23
  • Aug 23, 2006 9:43am Aug 23, 2006 9:43am
Why do you think it had such a small spike up and has been trending downward for the first 40 minutes after the news? Housing numbers came out lower than expected.
  • #24
  • Aug 23, 2006 9:55am Aug 23, 2006 9:55am
I was wondering about that too potp. At first, the number looks bad for the dollar because it indicates a slowing economy. Hence the intial spike. But as traders thought through the numbers...

I think it is because housing sales are an indication of the strength of the economy. Since inflation has been a problem lately, the FED has been raising rates. While this is good for the dollar for a little while, inflation is a big enemy of the dollar. Therefore, since housing is not selling as fast as thought, the FED can ease back on interest rate hikes. As a result, the economy can continue to grow at a reasonable pace without further interference from the FED. That's good for the dollar.
  • #25
  • Aug 23, 2006 9:57am Aug 23, 2006 9:57am
Perfect example for newstraders:

(1) I expected existing home sales were worse than the guessperts predicted (see my earlier post in this thread);
(2) Announcement confirmed my expectations; but
(3) I dropped $4,500 in the trade. (he did what???.... he's MM.... how'd he do that??)

Glad you asked:

A 20 pip premium was added to market prices for buy-sell stops around 9:45 am - 9:50 am.

I went long at 1.8993 (best price available in light of the 20 pip premium).

News was released and my entry point was hit just 2 pips before cable hit 1.8995 and reversed short. By the time I decided cable was retracing, not merely experiencing a brief correction, I was down $4,500; broker wins (and notice I'm not bashing the broker...remain positive).

So it's not about being "right"; it's about making money...that's why we trade. What good is right if you don't capitalize on it??

The good news is, I see the positive in all this; many of you will see only the downside. But when you can see what other people can't see, you can do what others can't do. Now that I see it, it is up to me to adjust, improvise and ...of course....dominate!

Just information; not a recommendation.
  • #26
  • Aug 23, 2006 10:10am Aug 23, 2006 10:10am
http://i2.zvhost.com/2/f/fj6i8j9t.jpg

i hope this link works. i have had a rough morning. the recording didn't go as planned and because of that i didn't get in the trade. Grrrrrr.

when you see the excel box disappear is when you should have seen a green light to buy, but my software clicked the chart instantly.

i'll do another one tonight of NZD trade balance for everyone. hopefully it's a tradeable report tonight.



where can i host this video that will actually work?
  • #27
  • Aug 23, 2006 10:12am Aug 23, 2006 10:12am
damn MM, im impressed with the honesty!!

i only post about a trade when i win!

(that is, unless i make the mistake of posting my entry before ive made my exit: )
Relax and be happy.
  • #28
  • Aug 23, 2006 10:13am Aug 23, 2006 10:13am
Quoting jswanson

i hope this link works. i have had a rough morning. the recording didn't go as planned and because of that i didn't get in the trade. Grrrrrr.

when you see the excel box disappear is when you should have seen a green light to buy, but my software clicked the chart instantly.

i'll do another one tonight of NZD trade balance for everyone. hopefully it's a tradeable report tonight.
THIS IS COOL SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!

would be crazy to have a video history of all past releases!
Relax and be happy.
  • #29
  • Aug 23, 2006 10:20am Aug 23, 2006 10:20am
Is it confession day today Merlin?

Quoting merlin
damn MM, im impressed with the honesty!!

i only post about a trade when i win!

(that is, unless i make the mistake of posting my entry before ive made my exit: )
  • #30
  • Aug 23, 2006 10:26am Aug 23, 2006 10:26am
Didn't Traded this one !
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #31
  • Aug 23, 2006 10:31am Aug 23, 2006 10:31am
Quoting merlin
damn MM, im impressed with the honesty!!

i only post about a trade when i win!
Merlin, between winning so often and keeping ff rolling, you don't have time to post your wins!!!!

On the one hand, I like to teach and perhaps help someone. On the other, judging from some of the pm and emails I get, some readers think I win all the time. So hopefully this will dispel the urban myth that I'm infallible. The last time I thought I was wrong, I was mistaken!!!
  • #32
  • Aug 23, 2006 10:42am Aug 23, 2006 10:42am
Love your attitude MM! We know the same Person!!!!

Keep on keeping on.
  • #33
  • Aug 23, 2006 10:59am Aug 23, 2006 10:59am
This one was a failure for me. Went long @2820 couple hours before the news. TP 2870, SL 2795. SL was hit during my meeting. Strong pullback from 2850 tells me somebody's unloading long positions, Chicago?

Quoting aparsai
I won't be able to trade this news today. I'll be in a meeting with my BOSS right at 10:00. I wish you all luck.


HAPPY TRADING.
  • #34
  • Aug 23, 2006 11:10am Aug 23, 2006 11:10am
Quoting Piece Of The Pie
Why do you think it had such a small spike up and has been trending downward for the first 40 minutes after the news? Housing numbers came out lower than expected.
Because a weak number was priced in. It would have taken a 6.2m number or lower to drop the dollar any further. The fade was a much better play today.

Nice to see it still pays to do research and actually think about the news...
  • #35
  • Aug 23, 2006 11:45am Aug 23, 2006 11:45am
I just did NOT think the the upside in the GBP was worth trying, so I got in short and ended up ++ 43 for the day.

It takes more than 2 clicks to make consistent money.


DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #36
  • Aug 23, 2006 11:48am Aug 23, 2006 11:48am
didn't trade the release but caught some of the retracement for 10 pips....made a conservative T/P since I was not in a position to monitor it too closely this morning....could of got more like 20-30 in hindsight!!!

Wasn't very confident this release was going to be a 40+ mover (which is a problem for my news straddle technique of entry orders 20 above and below market price).......so I waited it out for 15 minutes post-release like a snipper in the woods and jumped on.........other T/A indicators helped me realize that the initial move would fizzle too...
  • #37
  • Aug 23, 2006 11:49am Aug 23, 2006 11:49am
Quoting peterdxb
Why burgerking ???
This answer definitely will come very late.

It does not move. It is one of those garbage news that you can remove from your calendar.

However, you can perhaps use it in conjuction with other news to predict NFP, GDP. Construction and Motor industry are the top employers in the USA. should housing go down, perhaps NFP should go down too.
  • #38
  • Aug 23, 2006 12:00pm Aug 23, 2006 12:00pm
Quoting Darkstar
Because a weak number was priced in. It would have taken a 6.2m number or lower to drop the dollar any further. The fade was a much better play today.

Nice to see it still pays to do research and actually think about the news...

But the numbers came in still weaker than expected and the dollar went up in value after an initial decline. That's what can be confusing. The initial reaction is backwards from the long term reaction.
  • #39
  • Aug 23, 2006 12:30pm Aug 23, 2006 12:30pm
I lost 12 pips on the move. but learned alot. There is this thing call patience for the trade to come to me. I like to try to make the trade be what I want. Patience such a big word and so hard to hold on to.
Fdisk Please I just want a few pips. Is that too much to ask?
  • #40
  • Aug 23, 2006 12:41pm Aug 23, 2006 12:41pm
Quoting jmw
But the numbers came in still weaker than expected and the dollar went up in value after an initial decline. That's what can be confusing. The initial reaction is backwards from the long term reaction.
No it was perfectly rational. Read the news announcements and the posts on the forum prior to release. You'll find that almost everyone was expecting a weaker then expected number because consensus estimates were the same as the actual from last month. It had to be REALLY weak to attract any new interest.

Many traders were positioning for a weaker then expected number and when it wasn't super weak, they just closed their trades. Add in some straddle trader stops and you have a nice little rally in the dollar.

Like I said in another post; news trading is much more complicated then just straddling the price or trading in the direction of the miss. It is a rare event that the consensus numbers are what the market is actually pricing. You can make some sick money doing it, but you should expect it will require work do to so. Today was a flawless example...
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