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  • #821
  • Mar 23, 2016 11:51am Mar 23, 2016 11:51am
Quoting trader121
{quote} The second question: If all these strategies constantly lose money, why don't we reverse it? We simply sell instead of buy, buy instead of sell then we would have a constantly winning strategy?
I've been here a while but don't post often, if at all. But I had to reply to this. It is EXACTLY what I did and it has changed EVERYTHING about my trading. I know it seems stupid and crazy. My first 5 months of trading Forex was a struggle to say the least. I would get profitable (barely) and then lose. I basically broke even all the time and it seemed all my trades were like pulling teeth to make any money. Most (actually all) of them would go the opposite direction of my intended target and either hit my stop or almost hit my stop and then become barely profitable or break even. Once in awhile I would profit, barely enough to keep the account going. I would more often close the trade with a tiny profit just to get out, re-group, and start over. Frustrating is an understatement.

Then I did what you suggest. I thought "what the hell". Every time I entered a trade, I would do the opposite of what I thought I was supposed to do based on the chart, indicator, PA, trend, etc. As always, the price would move in the opposite direction but now I was on the CORRECT side of the trade. instead of it hitting my stop loss instantly, it would hit my profit target, instantly. To keep my mind clear on what I'm doing, I continue to think about my profit targets as stop losses and do the opposite of what I think I'm supposed to do. It's absolutely crazy. I made this change on May 21, 2015 and (drum roll) I have not lost a trade since.

I may have the most screwed up method ever. But it works for me.
  • #822
  • Mar 23, 2016 12:50pm Mar 23, 2016 12:50pm
Quoting trader121
{quote} The second question: If all these strategies constantly lose money, why don't we reverse it? We simply sell instead of buy, buy instead of sell then we would have a constantly winning strategy?
Ok, let me say something on this too. You should ask Hanover. He has a very good explanation as to why not.

My guess is it depends on your strategy. If you're scalping, then it definitely won't work, because of the relative cost per trade. If you are after hundreds of pips, then perhaps.... but why would you get it so wrong in the first place?

Quoting Forexia
{quote} Strange. Fxstaton posted that message about the 150-pip gain just yesterday.
Quoting tylerbose
{quote} any retard can make 150 pip, especially if you went to -500 to get them, it means nothing. just randomly open any position with 0.01 lot and set your TP to 150, then wait. if you want to prove that a system is profitable, talk in account growth. % per trade/day/month/year....
To the OP and all others looking to be spoon fed, there are no short cuts! Getting others to trade for you will always end in tears - haven't you learnt your lesson? Learn it yourself and make your own mistakes; there really is no substitute.
  • #823
  • Mar 23, 2016 1:40pm Mar 23, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting mrhigurashi
{quote} could be this: (cant take credit for the amazing artwork) {image}

hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah
hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah

hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah
hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah
hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahah
  • #824
  • Mar 23, 2016 2:00pm Mar 23, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting jen101
{quote} Ok, let me say something on this too. You should ask Hanover. He has a very good explanation as to why not. My guess is it depends on your strategy. If you're scalping, then it definitely won't work, because of the relative cost per trade. If you are after hundreds of pips, then perhaps.... but why would you get it so wrong in the first place? {quote} {quote} To the OP and all others looking to be spoon fed, there are no short cuts! Getting others to trade for you will always end in tears - haven't you learnt your lesson? Learn it yourself...
Here you go:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1533576
  • #825
  • Edited Mar 24, 2016 12:46pm Mar 23, 2016 2:47pm | Edited Mar 24, 2016 12:46pm
Why reversing a losing strategy is not guaranteed to work profitably

Here are some possible reasons:

1. Transaction costs (spread, commission, slippage, swap, etc). These accumulate over time, making both wins smaller and losses bigger. Like Jen says, the shorter your trading horizon, and the more frequently you trade, the greater the relative impact that these have. Many traders greatly underestimate their effect. Slippage never operates in your favor, but can have a severely destructive effect during market crashes or 'black swans'.

2. Statistical fluctuation. If your strategy doesn't exploit a genuine inefficiency -- i.e. a recurring directional or behavioral bias in future price movement -- then it is effectively a 50/50 crapshoot, and over a long enough period of time (say, a million trades) it will approximately break even (if we ignore transaction costs). But over any shorter time period (say, 500 trades) it could show an overall loss. That doesn't mean it's a losing system that can be reversed successfully, it means it's an ineffectual system that happens to be in loss at the moment, but will eventually break even....... except that transaction costs will gradually bleed it to death.

A system that appears to be losing heavily could merely be a statistical outlier (if you look at enough ineffectual systems, there will always be a few that have had an exceptionally 'unlucky' run to date) that has also been ravaged by transaction costs.

3. Overleveraging. This follows on from point 2. A strategy whose equity fluctuates above and below breakeven will at some future point fluctuate downward to the point where a margin call occurs. In other words, there's an imbalance simply because there's no upper limit to how high your account balance can get, but there's a downside limit that's an immediate showstopper. The bigger your position sizes, the greater the equity fluctuations, and the sooner this will happen. This is also somewhat akin to Gambler's ruin: that a player with a smaller bankroll (retail trader) is at a disadvantage against a player with a larger bankroll (the market), simply because any fluctuations have a greater relative effect -- in terms of pushing the player toward ruin -- on the small player.

4. Br0ker mischief. With some br0kers, unless you're winning consistently, the br0ker may put you on his B-book, and actively trade against you. Granted, many newbie traders unjustifiably blame their br0ker as an excuse for losses (e.g. widening spreads during high impact news, when in reality this is merely a liquidity issue), but nasties like virtual dealer plugins nonetheless do exist, and I suspect that there are br0kers out there who use them.

5. Market reaction. This likely has minimal effect for retail traders, since their positions are relatively tiny, allowing them to 'fly under the radar', but the market is nonetheless dynamic and there is a reaction to every order placed. In other words, heavyweight players will react in a way that unwittingly crushes you, no matter what strategy you use, as they seek to implement their own agendas. Retail traders are effectively cannon fodder that (directly or otherwise) provide liquidity for the bigger fish. When I read comments like "it doesn't matter what I do, the market always seems to move against me", I can't help but wonder if, in some cases, this may be a small contributing factor.

6. Psychological issues. In certain situations, there may be a small edge in cutting losses quickly, and holding winning trades for longer. However, human nature being the way that it is, people tend to do the opposite. Hence reversing the entry rules, but nonetheless continuing to allow psychological foibles to impact exits, will continue to deliver a similar overall result. Of course this isn't reversing the entire strategy, and it doesn't apply to automated systems.

7. Can't be reversed. With many systems it is impossible to exactly reverse the exits or the MM, e.g. trailing stoploss, uneven scaling in/out, martingale sizing.


To summarize points 1 and 2, there are (theoretically) three types of strategy:

i) a winning strategy (exploits an inefficiency)

ii) a losing strategy (exploits an inefficiency in reverse) -- these could potentially be reversed into a winning strategy. If we define "losing" in this way, it would be equally difficult to find a losing strategy as a winning one.

iii) an ineffectual strategy (the vast majority fall into this category) -- if reversed, these will remain ineffectual, and likewise be killed by overleveraging and (especially) transaction costs.
  • #826
  • Mar 23, 2016 3:03pm Mar 23, 2016 3:03pm
Quoting hanover
Why reversing a losing strategy is not guaranteed to work profitably Here are some possible reasons: 1. Transaction costs (spread, commission, slippage, swap, etc). These accumulate over time, making both wins smaller and losses bigger. Like Jen says, the shorter your trading horizon, and the more frequently you trade, the greater the relative impact that these have. Many traders greatly underestimate their effect. Slippage never operates in your favor, but can have a severely destructive effect during market crashes or 'black swans'. 2. Statistical...
I didn't expect you to appear!
  • #827
  • Mar 23, 2016 3:13pm Mar 23, 2016 3:13pm
Quoting fxstaton
I have no luck in forex. Initial period I get profit, and few months all profits and capital are gone. I think I am not suitable in forex and will quit all and back to work
have a job or business than use some idle money that can afford to lose on forex, and choose do it for learn or do it for pleasure
the gambler
the devils apprentice Return Today: na
  • #828
  • Edited 3:44pm Mar 23, 2016 3:26pm | Edited 3:44pm
d
  • #829
  • Mar 23, 2016 6:07pm Mar 23, 2016 6:07pm
Quoting hanover
Why reversing a losing strategy is not guaranteed to work profitabl
wow,wow, so much energy wasted, too much explanations. is plain and simple in principle as we already mentioned in this thread before. if you lose 55 times tossing the coin out of 100 betting on tthe obverse side, it doesn't mean you will win 55 times out of 100 betting on the reverse side next time
if you flip shit you won't get gold, you'll get just another shit
but I mentioned before a CONSTANT. a strategy witch produces a long term a constant result, whatever it is. trading is not a tossing the coin game! trading is not pure statistic! tradeing is blood, sweat and tears. is FEAR and GREED!
strange and funny but they are producing constants! ......is the fear traders experienced to buy more above the first resistence level line on the pivot point strategy for an example.
that's how flipping a losseing constant worked for me. i've exploited some long term observation on traders behaviour on the pivot point derivatives levels
FINd YOUR CONSTANT! and make it work for you. don't waste your time in philosophy. don't be lazy. backtest any smart observation you can come up with!
otherwise nothing is predictible and you're playin' craps ...and that isn't really a winning strategy
Member
  • #830
  • Mar 24, 2016 12:53am Mar 24, 2016 12:53am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote}. don't waste your time in philosophy. don't be lazy. backtest any smart observation you can come up with! otherwise nothing is predictible and you're playin' craps
Please go through all the posts made by Hanover in this forum over the years and be humble to find something useful for you. He is one of the much saner voices here.Your post shows you are so full of yourself like many other noobs that have come and gone. Looks like journey for you will be much harder.
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #831
  • Mar 24, 2016 1:16am Mar 24, 2016 1:16am
The market is uncontrolled randomness.
Of course one cannot control randomness
You cannot control the ocean, but you can control your boat... at least for a while until it sinks (:
  • #832
  • Mar 24, 2016 1:23am Mar 24, 2016 1:23am
Quoting IamTHAT
{quote} Please go through all the posts made by Hanover in this forum over the years and be humble to find something useful for you. He is one of the much saner voices here.Your post shows you are so full of yourself like many other noobs that have come and gone. Looks like journey for you will be much harder.
excuse me, obviously i ofended your god, hanover! Hope he's man enough to accept other views, other experience from other people and i hope he doesn't need protection from little humble guys like you. I don't care what you think my journey is like and i don't mind makeing me a noob The post for hanover is not for you. Stay down humble guy!That's my experience and is makeing my money. I don't need your elementary respect And don't answer my posts nomore. Just ignore me as i will ignore you
Member
  • #833
  • Mar 24, 2016 2:18am Mar 24, 2016 2:18am
Quoting TudorIoan
wow,wow, so much energy wasted, too much explanations......
Quoting IamTHAT
Please go through all the posts.....
I was merely expressing an opinion, replying to Jen's post. Anybody is welcome to disagree.

Now if I may express another opinion: many FF members seem to take the comments on these forums much more seriously than I do. Let's not forget that every one of us here is nothing more than an anonymous voice in cyberspace -- mere fodder that permits FF's stakeholders to make their advertising revenue -- and that every post is quickly forgotten as it gets buried by a million more of the same.
  • #834
  • Mar 24, 2016 2:54am Mar 24, 2016 2:54am
Quoting hanover
{quote} {quote} I was merely expressing an opinion, replying to Jen's post. Anybody is welcome to disagree. Now if I may express another opinion: many FF members seem to take the comments on these forums much more seriously than I do. Let's not forget that every one of us here is nothing more than an anonymous voice in cyberspace -- mere fodder that permits FF's stakeholders to make their advertising revenue -- and that every post is quickly forgotten as it gets buried by a million more of the same.
well, if we're just anonymous voices in cyberspace quickly forgotten and buried it means we're posting in vaini hope we can help and hint people who listen and want to share somebody's else experienceThank you "hanover" for the equilibrated stand on this.Regards
Member
  • #835
  • Mar 24, 2016 3:23am Mar 24, 2016 3:23am
Quoting hanover
To summarize points 1 and 2, there are (theoretically) three types of strategy: i) a winning strategy (exploits an inefficiency) ii) a losing strategy (exploits an inefficiency in reverse) -- these could potentially be reversed into a winning strategy. If we define "losing" in this way, it would be equally difficult to find a losing strategy as a winning one. iii) an ineffectual strategy (the vast majority fall into this category) -- if reversed, these will remain ineffectual, and likewise be killed by overleveraging and (especially) transaction...
Nailed it with this summary H I always keep my eyes open for those that fit into the second category.....what I refer to as the Costanza strategies.

Inserted Video
  • #836
  • Mar 24, 2016 3:28am Mar 24, 2016 3:28am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Nailed it with this summary H I always keep my eyes open for those that fit into the second category.....what I refer to as the Costanza strategies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY
Well, they say the definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results...
  • #837
  • Mar 24, 2016 3:40am Mar 24, 2016 3:40am
Most people will come back after they quitted... they just need some time off to cool down....
  • #838
  • Mar 24, 2016 3:47am Mar 24, 2016 3:47am
Quoting hello966
Most people will come back after they quitted... they just need some time off to cool down....

Yes - and make exactly the same mistakes all over again!
  • #839
  • Edited 4:11am Mar 24, 2016 3:59am | Edited 4:11am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} Yes - and make exactly the same mistakes all over again!

Wow, this sounds very similar to most forex traders...

http://getgamblingfacts.ca/psychology-of-gambling/

And of course most people who fail fall into the sunk cost fallacy.
  • #840
  • Mar 24, 2016 6:01am Mar 24, 2016 6:01am
Absolutely not in vain. It's really self help/therapy. You will learn more about yourself and trading from your own post. It's kind of like thinking out loud to oneself.

Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} well, if we're just anonymous voices in cyberspace quickly forgotten and buried it means we're posting in vaini hope we can help and hint people who listen and want to share somebody's else experienceThank you "hanover" for the equilibrated stand on this.Regards
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
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