Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Thanks Akt for detailed information.

Can u please describe about how to score the zone using odds enhancers?

Thanks again.....

Hello server
I was just thinking about doing that this morning!!

However, I don't know how much I can post though, because of copyright etc. As you know i did not invent this methodology. A lot of people have done a lot of work to come up with these parameters.

I have not had much feedback on the information already posted though, so i am worried either i have confused most or they are getting it.
There has been minimal feedback so i am uncertain as to how useful it is you know.

The info i posted is my take on what information i have learned and tested the last few years so i am not concerned about copyright with that but i think with odds enhancers it may be a bit different.

(I have my own take on them as well though)

Best wishes

Thanks Akt for immediate reply....
You are not confusing others but clearing others doubt very well.




English is my second language.

AKT, Ok, thank you. That's how I understood it from Alfonso's lessons.....

Yes that's right according to the lessons. It hasn't taken place yet. I was asking the question that if it broke with a full candle outside could I take the trade. Sorry if I didn't make that clear....

Good Morning Akt

I am not confused(well not much anyway).
I have been reading your posts and find them to be extremely helpful. You have qualified for your own folder.
I am taking the time to re-read and understand everything.
I greatly appreciate the efforts you are taking to explain everything.

With regards to Odds Enhancers.
Sam Seiden has a tutorial on Online Trading Academy/FXStreet called "Odds Enhancers To Increase Your Odds"
Its freely available. The easiest way to find it is via Youtube.
Hope this helps.
Mark

Ahh sorry! I see, it! Was my bad english fault, sorry! :/

Hello everyone.
Here are my thoughts on odds enhancers.
Please remember this is the culmination of years of learning and testing.
I lay no claim to these parameters. I merely learned and tested them to death!.

I hope it adds value to you understanding of the rules and practice of supply and demand trading.
There is so much more, wish I could do videos, would save my fingers a whole load of typing!!

ZONE QUALITY ASSESSMENT

To summarize what we have discussed thus far;
We now know what patterns we are looking for on a price chart, that represent Supply and demand, and how to identify these patterns or zones.
We also now know what a flip zone is and how the 2 types are formed (i.e. the flip zone of supply and the flip zone of demand).

The next step is to assess the quality of the zone (s) to help us decide if they are of high enough quality for us to place our money at stake there.

So, what makes up even consider a zone a zone?

Well, the most obvious thing that draws us to zones is the move away from a level.
Remember how we identify supply above and demand below starting with current price, look up and left for supply and down and left for demand.
But what are we looking for exactly?

We are looking for big moves in price, down for supply, and up, for demand.




So, the 1st odds enhancer to be assessed is:

Strength of Move away from a price level

How did price leave the level?

Strong departure (think of it like a NASA rocket taking off) i.e large ERC candles or a gap away from the level scored as a 2 (you can give a gap away an extra point if you like, because it is the biggest representation of an imbalance in supply and demand. We dont often get then in FX compared to stocks for example).

Medium Departure (think of it like a shot from a land-based world war cannon, those were usually fired at an angle rather than space rockets that go vertical into the atmosphere) scored as a 1

Weak Departure (think of it in terms of it in terms of you pushing a car up a hill, thats hard work!). The candles leaving the zone are usually weak and a mixture of up candles and down candles. Scored a 0.

The 2nd odds enhancer I use is Curve Location

Where is the zone is located relative to the curve timeframe supply and demand zones?

A demand zone (DBR & RBR) located low on the curve 2
A demand zone located in the middle of the curve 1
A demand zone located high on the curve 0

A supply zone (RBD & DBD) located high on the curve 2
A supply zone located in the middle of the curve 1
A supply zone located low on the curve 0

The 3rd odds enhancer I use is Profit potential

If I trade at this zone and it goes my way, how much distance do I have on my entry time frame to the next opposing level?
So if I buy in demand, where is the nearest supply zone? (Remember, this applies to the first target only)
If I sell in supply, where is the nearest demand zone?

Opposing zone at least 3:1 distance away? scored as a 2
Opposing zone at least 2:1 distance away? scored as a 1
Opposing zone less than or equal to 1:1 distance away scored as a 0

The 4th odds enhancer I use is Freshness

Since this zone was created, how many times has price returned to the zone?

No return to the zone as yet scored a 2
At least one return but no penetration beyond 25% of the width of the zone 1.5
At least one return with a greater than 25% penetration but less than 50% penetration 1
At least one return with >50% penetration 0

The 5th odds enhancer I use is Time spent at the level

How many candles are in the base of the zone?
< 6 candles in the base scored a 1
>6 candles in the base scored a 0

Other odds enhancers SAD traders use include
{C}1. Arrival of price back to the level i.e. did price return sharply (a good thing) or did it do a slow laborious return (not a good thing) I dont use this odds enhancer because I am a set and forget trader and so I am not usually in front of my charts when prices arrive anyway
{C}2. Session the zone was created in in FX a zone created in the European session or New York session is more likely to be stronger than that created in the Asian session because of the differences in volume of trade across sessions. Asia usually has the lowest volume
{C}3. Dollar index For some traders this is a must have and ranks high on their list. Me personally, I have not found it that useful.
I know it is important to know what the dollar is doing so I usually do a dollar analysis first each day but I dont base my trade entries solely on what the dollar is doing.

{C}4. Correlations So called commodity currencies like the AUD, CAD, NZD can be used as an additional odds enhancer when compared to the commodity they are most aligned to.
CAD + Crude oil
AUD + Gold
Etc.
For example, it would be more likely for an AUD based pair buy to work if gold was entering or in a demand zone on its chart as well

Hello everyone

My thoughts on SPX, summarizing everything we have discussed so far.

Please note, this is NOT a trade recommendation.
It is merely a little exercise to help illustrate the rules of this methodology.

Best wishes

Akt it is really good excercise and very nice analysis.
That MN SZ which You draw remove one opposing MN CP DZ , while WK TL is broken we are looking to short in D1 nested in WK SZ nested in MN SZ.
That one You are pointet have good imbalances good base and is waiting
Price will also confluence with the MN DSC TL.

Hello everyone,

EUR/USD - my thoughts.
Best wishes

Hello everyone

I thought long and hard before posting this picture of a live trade I am in on the USDCAD.
I hope it encourages people as to what is possible.
No bragging, just encouragement.

Hear me please, I have losing trades. I have had trades stopped out today even!
The point is though, that when you win, you win big, >3:1
When you lose, lose small.

Best wishes.

P.S I will not be posting my live trades after this, just think that is too private

Hi Akt
It is the wk zone in control because it has had a retrace?

Hi Akt
Mn needs confirmation because there are so many candles in the base?

My EURUSD analysis is the same.
Confirmation - because we have not 2:1 RR MN imbalance

Hello Poole.
Please see pictures below.
The number of candles in the monthly base are fine, score a 1 since less than 6 candles

Best wishes

I suppose we all now know why the SPX is experiencing some selling pressure today right?

Best wishes

Thanks Akt/ You're great

And which H4 DZ is better to buy inside D1 DZ, inside W1 DZ. DBR or RBR. Which do you prefer usually? Or would you take both zones?

What is SPX?

Hello Conom
I took both zones 50% of position in first zone and second 50% right at the proximal line of the second zone below

SPX is the S&P 500, the largest index in the market. It is a US market

Best wishes

hi,

I can see why you took them ..

my question is isnt monthly and weekly and daily supply still in control until atleast some of that demand where you took the trade removes some supply? the daily trendline down is still intact ..

so i was wondering could you expand a little on your thoughts ?