Raeu_r:r_4H

Hello to all, trades analising 4h, trading arround 10 pairs, all trades wiht excelent r:r the winning % is not so excelent.
This year im going to try double the acount to take out the profits.
Good trades.

1. Opened Feb 1, 2016 Poll
2. if you operate with take profits, you wait for them? (feeling of readers of this journal published within 60 days)

Hello traders let me know what do you think?

Good trades.

Deceptive marketing fxopen ECN conditions from 1.5$ committee, I am paying between 10 and 14. Many best conditions exist in other brokers is done is done. . http://www.forexfactory.com/piupiu#acct.61

Good trades

Hello traders.

Dollar Long-Term

Some ideas.

EURUSD


GBPUSD


USDCHF


USDJPY


USDRUB


GOLD


Good income to all, miracles do not exist.

Do you have any more updated analysis?

many thanks in advance

Weekly Forex Update
The highlight of the week was the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision which was maintained status quo in wake of recent global economic and financial pressures that have threaten the US economy growth. The Fed, after a two-day meeting of its policy-making committee, scaled back its interest rate guidance to just two rate rises in 2016, lower than the four it had mentioned after the December FOMC meet. However, the Fed noted that the nation’s labor market was strengthening and the economy had continued to chug at a moderate pace despite facing risks from an uncertain global economy and financial markets. Meanwhile, the central bank expects US consumer prices to reach the 2% target in two to three years but trimmed its estimate of GDP growth in 2016 to 2.2% from 2.4%.
US macroeconomic data showed that the core consumer price index unexpectedly managed to tick higher on a yearly basis in February, adding to signs that inflation is moving closer to the Fed’s target. On the other hand, consumer prices on a monthly basis fell in the same month, largely due to a slide in gasoline prices. Meanwhile, retail sales in the country declined less than anticipated in February, suggesting that the economy remained on solid ground. Another set of data showed that industrial production in the US contracted more than forecasts, as untimely warm weather and the energy sector’s slump weighed on the industrial production. Separately, housing starts in US climbed more than expected on a monthly basis in February, reaching its highest level since September.
The Euro ended the week on a stronger footing, after the final estimate of the Euro-zone’s core consumer prices were revised upwards on a yearly basis in February. On the other hand, year on year price growth remained in negative territory in the same month, way below the ECB’s 2% target, raising concerns about the health of the Eurozone economy. Meanwhile, industrial production in the region bounced back strongly on a monthly basis in January, notching its highest rate since January 2010.
The BoE kept the key interest rate unchanged at a historic low of 0.5%, dashing speculation that the one or more of the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could be moving towards a first rate hike. Also, the central bank board members unanimously agreed to keep its bond-buying scheme intact at £375 billion. Additionally, the minutes of the BoE’s recent policy meeting indicated that the growing uncertainty over a “Brexit” has significantly contributed in recent decline in the value of the Pound and could hit economic demand.

EURUSD
During the previous week, the EUR traded 1.08% higher against the USD and ended at 1.1271, after Eurozone’s consumer price inflation rose more than anticipated on a monthly basis and core consumer price inflation also advanced on a yearly basis in February. Additionally, Eurozone’s industrial production rose more-than-expected on a monthly basis in January, led by increased output of capital goods, such as equipment and machinery, growing at its fastest rate in more-than six years. Moreover, employment in Eurozone increased on a quarterly basis in fourth-quarter of 2015. However, annual inflation remained weak in the same month. Meanwhile, construction activity in the region registered a rise in nearly four years, while the trade balance declined in January. The pair traded at a high of 1.1343 and a low of 1.1058 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.1104 and second support at 1.0938, while the first resistance is expected at 1.1390 and second resistance at 1.1509. This week, investors would keep an eye on the manufacturing and services PMI data across the Euro-zone to gauge the strength in the European economy. Additionally, the ZEW survey of consumer sentiment in Eurozone and Germany will also be eyed by investors.

GBPUSD
The GBP advanced against the USD last week, closing 0.71% higher at 1.4475. The BoE opted to keep benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, after all nine members of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep rates at their record low. Meanwhile, the BoE minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting showed that increased uncertainty in the run up to the referendum on UK’s membership in the EU had weighed on the Pound and could slow the nation’s economic growth. In other economic news, Britain’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.1% in the three months ended January, the lowest level since 2006 and weekly earnings edged up more than expected as the labor market continued to improve. The GBP hit a high of 1.4516 and a low of 1.4053 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.4182, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3886. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4644, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4811. Looking ahead, investors would keep a close eye on UK’s consumer prices as well as retail sales data. Also, the nation’s mortgage approvals and public sector net borrowing data would also grab market attention.

USDJPY
Last week, the USD traded 1.99% lower against the JPY and closed at 111.55. The BoJ decided to keep its monetary stance unchanged, despite risks to the nation’s economic growth. The central bank downgraded the economic as well as inflation expectations and admitted that pick-up in exports had paused, mainly due to the effects of the slowdown in emerging economies, opening the door to further action in months ahead to ignite growth. Separately, the BoJ minutes of its January policy meeting indicated that board members had a debate on whether to adopt negative interest rate policy or to expand the massive asset-buying programme and eventually decided to implement the former option. The decision to adopt negative rates was passed by a 5-4 vote. Macroeconomic data released during the week showed that industrial production in Japan contracted again while the tertiary industry index rebounded stronger than expected on a monthly basis in January. The pair traded at a high of 114.15 and a low of 110.67 during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 110.09, followed by 108.64, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 113.58, followed by 115.61. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to the release of Japan’s National consumer prices as well as the manufacturing PMI data. Investors would also monitor Japan’s coincident as well as leading economic indices data for further cues.

USDCHF
The USD traded 1.38% lower against the CHF last week, with the pair closing at 0.9691. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, at par-with market expectations and maintained the target range for the three month Libor between -1.25% and -0.25%. The central bank indicated the Swiss franc continues to be slightly overvalued, while lowered the economic forecast and expected major deflation amid cheaper oil and slowdown in global growth. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs downgraded Switzerland’s growth outlook as there was no clear sign of significant growth in global economy. The GDP is expected to grow at 1.4% this year down from 1.5% projected earlier and for 2017 cut the growth outlook to 1.8% from1.9%. The pair traded at a high of 0.9916 and a low of 0.9651 during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.9591, followed by 0.9489, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.9855, followed by 1.0018. Going forward, investors this week would closely monitor Switzerland’s trade balance and the ZEW survey’s expectations for further direction in the Swiss Franc.

USDCAD
During the previous week, the USD traded 1.72% lower against the CAD and ended at 1.3003. In economic news, Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 1.4% in February down from 2.0% in January, mainly due to falling gasoline prices. However, core consumer prices on a monthly basis edged up while on a yearly basis it fell in February. Another set of macroeconomic data indicated that retail sales in the nation rebounded stronger than expected on a monthly basis, marking its biggest one-month gain in close to six years in January. Other economic data showed that Canadian manufacturing shipments rose more than anticipated on a monthly basis in January. Meanwhile, wholesale sales unexpectedly remained flat in the same period. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3406 and a low of 1.2923. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.2816 and second support at 1.2629, while the first resistance is expected at 1.3299 and second resistance at 1.3594. Moving ahead, market participants would concentrate on Canada’s unemployment rate as well as building permits data for further direction in the CAD.

AUDUSD
During the previous week, the AUD traded 0.56% higher against the USD and ended at 0.7603. The minutes of the RBA’s recent monetary policy meeting showed that the board members saw reasonable prospects for continued growth in the nation but reiterated that prolonged low inflation would provide scope to ease monetary policy further, if needed. Meanwhile, the board members remained cautious on whether the Australian labor market can continue its improvement over the coming months. Macroeconomic data showed that Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped back to 5.8% in February from 6.0% recorded in the preceding month, as fewer people looked for work, thereby suggesting that the underlying labor market conditions would keep the RBA on the sidelines for the time being. The AUD hit a high of 0.7682 and a low of 0.7415 against the USD in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.7452, followed by 0.7300, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.7720, followed by 0.7835. Moving ahead, the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens’ speech would be closely watched by the market participants. Additionally, the nation’s house price index would be on investor’s radar.

Gold
Gold rose last week, closing 0.48% higher at USD1255.40 per ounce, on the back of broad weakness in the greenback, after the Fed scaled back interest rate hike expectations at its recent FOMC meeting. The yellow metal hit a high of USD1271.90 per ounce and a low of USD1226.00 per ounce in the previous week. The yellow metal is expected to witness its first support at USD1230.70 per ounce and second support at USD1205.40 per ounce, while the first resistance is expected at USD1276.60 per ounce and second resistance at USD1297.20 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Crude oil strengthened in the previous week, closing 2.44% higher at USD39.44 per barrel, on renewed expectations, after Qatari oil minister, Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada, stated that producers from within and outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in April to discuss plans for a freeze in output. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil stocks advanced by 1.3 million barrels to 523.2 million barrels in the week ended 11 March, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that the nation’s oil inventories rose less than anticipated by 1.5 million barrels to 523.0 million barrels last week. The commodity traded at a high of USD41.20 per barrel and a low of USD35.96 per barrel in the previous week. The commodity is expected to find its first support at USD36.47 per barrel and first resistance at USD41.71 per barrel. The second support is expected at USD33.60 per barrel and second resistance at USD44.08 per barrel.

Good trades.

great stuff, good to have you back. Keep them coming

good trades

Weekly Forex Update
The greenback ended the week on a stronger footing, following hawkish remarks from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials supporting the case for an interest rate hike as soon as the next monetary policy meeting, scheduled for the end of April. Macroeconomic data released during the week showed that the final Q4 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised upwards to 1.4% from the initial estimate of 1.0% mainly supported by stronger personal spending on services. The report also showed that corporate profits dropped the most in seven years last year, highlighting that the US economy entered 2016 on uneven footing.
Another set of economic data indicated that durable goods dropped more than expected in February, with business investment dropping by the largest amount since December due to weak global economic growth, low oil prices and financial market turbulence. Meanwhile, services sector activity in the US recovered in March after falling into contraction territory for the first time in two years. However, data failed to eliminate doubts surrounding the economy, as momentum this year remains lackluster. On the other hand, the number of Americans filing for first time jobless benefits rose less than expected last week, as the figure remained consistent with a strong labor market. Also, new home sales in the US rebounded in February, highlighting a gradually improving real estate market.
The Euro lost ground against most of the major peers, as the Brussels attack overshadowed Germany’s Ifo and Euro-zone’s PMI survey data. Data showed that the German Ifo business climate index advanced for the first time in four months suggesting that domestic demand is shielding the Euro-zone’s largest economy from slowing global growth. Additionally, private sector activity in the Euro-zone improved in March, pointing that the economy has regained some momentum at the end of the first quarter. On the other hand, the Euro-zone’s ZEW economic sentiment index slightly fell in March but was better than market expectations.
The British Pound ended the week on a negative footing, due to uncertainty over Britain’s upcoming referendum on its membership in the European Union. The possibility of “Brexit” has increased, following the Brussels terrorist attacks earlier last week. On the macroeconomic front, consumer prices in the UK rebounded less than estimated on a monthly basis while on a yearly basis it remained unchanged in February, way below the central bank’s 2% target, providing another reason for the Bank of England to ‘stay on hold’ position for an extended period. Meanwhile, UK retail sales fell less than expected on a monthly basis in February, indicating that consumer demand remains relatively upbeat so far this year.

EURUSD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.91% lower against the USD and closed at 1.1169. In economic news, the Euro-zone’s Markit services and manufacturing PMI’s both advanced indicating that private sector activity picked up pace in March. Meanwhile, Eurozone’s current account surplus narrowed in January and the consumer confidence index fell for a third consecutive month in March, indicating draining optimism amongst consumers. In other economic news, in Germany, the Markit services PMI advanced in March, while the manufacturing activity unexpectedly weakened for the same month. Meanwhile, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index fell short of market expectations and the Euro-zone’s economic sentiment index dropped to a 15-month low in March, as uncertainty continue to remain over the economic outlook in emerging markets. The pair traded at a high of 1.1286 and a low of 1.1144 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.1113, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1057. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1255, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1341. This week, investors would focus on the Euro-zone as well as Germany’s consumer price inflation data for further clues. Meanwhile, Germany’s unemployment rate and retail sales data along with Euro-zone’s inflation data would also be keenly watched by investors.

GBPUSD
Last week, the GBP traded 2.34% lower against the USD and closed at 1.4137, as UK’ inflation rate continued to stay at historically low levels. Data showed that the nation’s consumer price index remained steady on a yearly basis at 0.3%, far below the BoE’s inflation target of 2.0%. Meanwhile, consumer prices on a monthly basis climbed less than forecasts on a monthly basis in February, giving the BoE leeway to maintain key interest rate at a record low. Separately, retail sales in the nation declined less than expected on a monthly basis in February. The GBP hit a high of 1.4469 and a low of 1.4056 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.3970, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3806. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4382, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4632. Looking ahead, investors will monitor UK’s 4Q gross domestic product and the current account data for further direction. Moreover, the nation’s net consumer credit and Markit manufacturing PMI will also grab significant market attention.

USDJPY
The USD traded 1.42% higher against the JPY last week, with the pair closing at 113.13. The Japanese Yen lost ground, after Japan’s manufacturing activity fell into contraction in March for the first time in almost a year, as output, new orders and exports all fell, suggesting that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may soon see the requirement for further stimulus. Other economic data indicated that the all industry activity index rebounded at a faster than expected pace on a monthly basis in January, after registering a drop in the previous two months. Separately, the BoJ board member, Yukitoshi Funo, stated that the central bank will not hesitate to ease monetary policy again, if risks aggravate a fragile economic recovery. He also warned of a hit to Japanese exports and capital expenditure due to emerging market slowdown and volatile financial markets. The USD hit a high of 113.33 and a low of 111.21 against the JPY in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 111.75 and second support at 110.42, while the first resistance is expected at 113.87 and second resistance at 114.66. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to Japan’s preliminary industrial production data and the final Nikkei manufacturing PMI reading for further cues. Also, retail trade as well as housing starts data would be on trader’s radar.

USDCHF
During the previous week, the USD traded 0.85% higher against the CHF and ended at 0.9773. On the macroeconomic front, Switzerland’s trade surplus expanded in February, from January. Meanwhile, the ZEW economic expectations index rose to a level of 2.5 in March from -5.9 in February. Another set of economic data showed that the M3 money supply in the nation edged up on a yearly basis in February. Last week, the KOF institute slashed Switzerland’s GDP growth to 1.0% in 2016 from an expansion of 1.1% projected earlier on the back of global economic weakness. Meanwhile, for 2017, the economic growth outlook was kept unchanged at 2.0%. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9789 and a low of 0.9674. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 0.9703 and second support at 0.9631, while the first resistance is expected at 0.9818 and second resistance at 0.9861. Going forward, investors this week would closely monitor Switzerland’s real retail sales and the SVME PMI data to get better insights in the Swiss economy. Additionally, the nation’s UBS consumption and the KOF leading indices data would grab market attention.

USDCAD
The USD rose against the CAD last week, closing 1.98% higher at 1.3261, after the US economic growth was upwardly revised for 4Q15. Last week, according to a private research report, Canada’s economy is projected to expand at a rate of 1.9% in 2016 and by 2.0% in 2017. Meanwhile, the nation’s unemployment rate is projected to rise from 6.9% in 2015 to 7.4% and 7.3% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3298 and a low of 1.3022. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.3094 and second support at 1.2919, while the first resistance is expected at 1.3370 and second resistance at 1.3472. Going forward, investors this week would keep a close watch on Canada’s GDP as well as on the RBC manufacturing PMI data for further direction in the CAD.

AUDUSD
Last week, the AUD traded 1.26% lower against the USD and closed at 0.7508. In economic news, Australian house prices rose by just 0.2% on a quarterly basis in 4Q15, compared to a rise of 2.0% in the previous quarter, indicating that the nation’s property market is showing signs of cooling. Market expectation was for the index to remain flat. Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor, Glenn Stevens, stated that tighter regulatory measures adopted to slow lending to investors have cooled house price growth in the Sydney and Melbourne housing property market. The AUD hit a high of 0.7651 and a low of 0.7477 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.7439 and first resistance at 0.7614. The second support is expected at 0.7371 and second resistance at 0.7720. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to Australia’s AiG performance of manufacturing index and new homes sales data.

Gold
Last week, gold fell 3.05% to close at USD1217.05 per ounce, as the greenback strengthened, after hawkish comments from the US Fed officials raised speculation about the possibility for another increase in interest rates when policymakers gather next month. Gold hit a high of USD1262.20 per ounce and a low of USD1212.60 per ounce during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at USD1200.13 per ounce, followed by USD1181.57 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in USD1249.73 per ounce, followed by USD1280.77 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil traded marginally higher and ended at USD39.46 per barrel, as major oil producers are preparing for the April meeting in Qatar where the output freeze deal should be discussed. Separately, the Energy Information Administration showed that US crude oil stocks expanded by 9.4 million barrels in the last week to 532.5 million barrels and the American Petroleum Institute indicated that oil inventories rose by 8.7 million barrels to nearly 532.0 million barrels in the week ended 18 March 2016, eroding hope of an ease in the supply glut. The commodity traded at a high of USD41.90 per barrel and a low of USD38.33 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to witness its first support at USD37.98 per barrel and second support at USD36.37 per barrel, while the first resistance is expected at USD41.55 per barrel and second resistance at USD43.51 per barrel.

Good trades.

#Shesaid

The US Dollar dropped sharply today after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave her thoughts on the economy with a more dovish bias than was perhaps perceived over previous months. Her outlook on the economy and monetary policy’s role within it was viewed as more cautious than other Fed members who have spoken in recent weeks. There was a familiar affirmation of the Fed’s commitment towards data dependent policy, however Yellen gave greater weight to the factors that fall further outside the direct indicators reflecting the dual mandate as they contribute to those trends over time. The central banker suggested the Fed’s consideration of recent global growth slowdowns have weighed more heavily on the outlook for the upcoming rate hike path with notable mentions of both China and oil.
Global growth concerns were referenced multiple times in Yellen’s statements, as she stated that “Global developments pose an ongoing risk to the economy”. The increased uncertainty surrounding “market confusion earlier this year over China's exchange rate policy” and January’s equities draw down seemed to give the group pause. Furthermore, low commodity prices, particularly oil, was seen to be weighing on inflation with PCE falling well short of the 2 percent year over year pace the central bank targets. Yellen would mention that core price pressures are more robust, yet not definitive in their trend towards target.
Another domestic issue that has contributed to the Fed’s uncertainty is wage growth. These concerns are placed against a low unemployment rate, rising consumer spending and confidence surveys showing still supporting optimism for the economy.
In a familiar effort at balance, Yellen affirmed the Fed’s ability to return to accommodation if necessary. These comments along with the elements necessitating them were something of a contrast to those of other Fed members, who in recent weeks had often supported the notion of looking past market turmoil and perhaps raising rates gradually.
However, there was also a greater emphasis on a practical asymmetry in the ability to apply policy noted by the Chair. She said that there is limited room to pursue further traditional lines of easing, though she remarked that there were plenty of options at their disposal. Recently, however, market commentary has turned more critical of the effectiveness of unorthodox policies that continue to extend from groups like the ECB and BoJ.
As the commentary was processed by the Euro strengthened nearly 0.75% against the USD, while theBritish pound advanced nearly one percent. USD/JPY fell half a percent and erased nearly 3 days of gains.
Good trades.

Weekly Forex Update

The highlight of the week was the dovish comments by the Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, after she emphasized that the US central bank should proceed carefully towards higher interest rates against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty including the slowdown in China and collapsing oil prices. Although, she admitted that the US economy remained resilient despite a rough start to the year, but suggested that chances of a rate hike in April are very dim. Meanwhile, Yellen’s remarks contrasted with the stance of some Fed officials, who in recent time have opined that the US economy was strong enough to warrant further rate hikes. Macroeconomic data released during the week indicated that the US non-farm payrolls beat market expectations in March and wages rebounded, shrugging off concerns of a global economic slowdown. However, the nation’s unemployment rate unexpectedly edged up to 5.0% in March, highlighting that slack remains in some corners of the US labor market. On the other hand, the US ISM manufacturing activity swung back to expansion territory for the first time in seven months at a better-than-expected pace in March. Meanwhile, the number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits rose last week, but remained below a level that is associated with an improving labor market. On the contrary, US companies added more than expected in jobs March, supported by strong gains in construction, retail and shipping. The Euro ended the week on a stronger footing, after Germany’s inflation on a yearly basis climbed above zero in March, indicating that domestic demand as well as the ECB stimulus measures may be starting to boost price gains. However, inflation numbers remained far below the 2% inflation rate desired by the ECB. Meanwhile, core consumer prices in the Euro-region slightly edged up but the headline inflation rate remained negative on a yearly basis in March, suggesting that the ECB may unleash a new round of stimulus measures in the single-currency area. The British Pound ended the week in red, on continued fears of a possible UK exit from the European Union. Data released during last week showed that the UK economic growth unexpectedly quickened on an annual basis in the final quarter of 2015, pointing that the nation’s economy ended the year with a better than estimated outlook. Meanwhile, UK’s current account deficit sharply widened in the fourth quarter to hit a record high, underlining pressures from the global economic downturn. Also, UK’s manufacturing PMI remained subdued in March, as global growth continues to weigh on UK manufactures, indicating that the nation’s economic growth may run out of steam in the first quarter after showing a slight expansion in the previous quarter.

EURUSD
The EUR traded 2.03% higher against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.1395, after German consumer prices rose at a faster-than-expected pace on a monthly basis in March after remaining unchanged in the previous month. Other economic data showed that inflation in the Eurozone fell on an annual basis in March, thus remaining in the deflation territory. Meanwhile, the overall economic sentiment in the Eurozone fell to its lowest level in March since February 2015, amid lower confidence in construction and financial services sectors. Moreover, the consumer confidence remained steady at its lowest level in March since December 2014. Further, the sentiment in the services sector dropped in March and the industrial confidence fell to a thirteenth-month low in the same month. Other economic data indicated that manufacturing output in the Eurozone and in its peripheries rose higher than market expectations in March. Meanwhile, German retail sales unexpectedly dipped on a monthly basis in February. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.1439 and a low of 1.1153. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.1216, followed by 1.1041, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.1502, followed by 1.1613. This week, investors would focus on the Markit’s survey of services PMI across the Eurozone and Sentix investor confidence for further cues. Additionally, Germany’s industrial production, factory orders and trade balance will attract market attention.

GBPUSD
The GBP advanced against the USD last week, closing 0.62% higher at 1.4224, after UK’s economy expanded more-than-expected in the fourth quarter of 2015, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of positive growth since the first quarter of 2013. Moreover, the manufacturing activity rose slightly in the month of March, but is close to moving back into a state of contraction. In other economic news, UK’s GfK consumer confidence remained flat, staying at the lowest level in more than a year, amid fears that Britain might opt to leave the European Union. Further, the current account deficit widened more-than-expected in 4Q 2015, led by rising imports of goods, and declining goods exports. Moreover, the BoE Governor, Mark Carney warned of the challenges faced by global policymakers in low-nominal growth situations and further stated that loose monetary policy is not the alone solution. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.4461 and a low of 1.4121. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.4079, followed by 1.3930, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.4419, followed by 1.4610. Looking ahead, investors will look forward to UK’s NIESR gross domestic product estimate and Markit’s construction and services PMI for further direction. Moreover, UK’s official reserves, industrial, manufacturing production and total trade balance data will generate a lot of market attention.

USDJPY
The USD traded 1.26% lower against the JPY last week, with the pair closing at 111.71. On the data front, Japan’s unemployment rate rose in February, rising for the first time in three months. Further, industrial production declined the most on a monthly basis in February since 2011, underscoring Japan’s struggle to rebound from a negative growth at the end of last year. Other economic data showed that Japan’s manufacturing output contracted at the fastest pace in three years in March, due to new export orders shrinking sharply. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 113.82 and a low of 111.59. The pair is expected to find its first support at 110.93 and first resistance at 113.16. The second support is expected at 110.15 and second resistance at 114.61. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to Japan’s Nikkei services PMI, leading index, trade balance and consumer confidence index, all scheduled for release this week.

USDCHF
During the previous week, the USD traded 2.00% lower against the CHF and ended at 0.9578. In economic news, Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator advanced in February, on the back of persistent and strong growth in private consumption. Moreover, the nation’s SVME Purchasing managers’ index climbed surprisingly in March. Meanwhile, the KOF leading indicator indicated eased less-than-expected in March. Additionally, real retail sales dropped for a consecutive seventh month on a yearly basis in February. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9788 and a low of 0.9555. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.9495, followed by 0.9409, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.9727, followed by 0.9874. Going forward, investors this week would closely monitor Switzerland’s consumer price inflation data, foreign currency reserves and unemployment rate for further direction in the Swiss Franc.

USDCAD
The USD fell against the CAD last week, closing 1.88% lower at 1.3011. The CAD gained ground, after Canada’s GDP figure indicated that the nation’s economy expanded for a fourth consecutive month in January, following strong manufacturing output. Moreover, manufacturing activity in Canada rose for the first time in eight months in March. Meanwhile, the industrial product price index dropped more-than-expected in February. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3287 and a low of 1.2857. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.2817, followed by 1.2622, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.3247, followed by 1.3482. Moving ahead, market participants would concentrate on Canada’s unemployment rate, international merchandise trade as well as building permits and housing starts data.

AUDUSD
Last week, the AUD traded 2.29% higher against the USD and closed at 0.768. On the economic front, Australia’s private sector credit growth climbed on a monthly basis in February. Moreover, manufacturing activity expanded in March notching its fastest pace of expansion in twelve years. The AUD hit a high of 0.7725 and a low of 0.7493 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.7539 and first resistance at 0.7771. The second support is expected at 0.7400 and second resistance at 0.7864. Moving ahead, market participants will keep a close watch on the RBA’s interest rate decision, and retail sales as well as trade balance data. Further, traders will watch the AiG performance of construction and services indices data scheduled for the week.

Gold
Gold rose last week, closing 0.46% higher at USD1222.60 per ounce, amid a broad weakness in the greenback, as the Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, remained dovish on future rate hikes in the US, increased demand for the precious yellow metal. However, gains in gold prices were kept in check, after a better-than-expected US jobs report signaled strength in the economy and bolstered speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates soon. Gold hit a high of USD1246.80 per ounce and a low of USD1207.70 per ounce during the previous week. The yellow metal is expected to witness its first support at USD1205.27 per ounce and second support at USD1186.93 per ounce, while the first resistance is expected at USD1244.37 per ounce and second resistance at USD1265.13 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil traded 6.77% lower and ended at USD36.79 per barrel, amid persistent concerns over the crude supply glut after Kuwait and Saudi Arabia announced that they will resume oil production of 300,000 bpd at the jointly operated Khafji field. Oil prices remained in red, after the Saudi deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, stated that the kingdom will not freeze output unless Iran and other major producers do so, thus jeopardizing a production freeze agreement. Moreover, the US Energy Department reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 2.3mn bls last week to reach a new record high of 534.8mn bls and the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude inventories rose smaller than anticipated by 2.6mn bls last week. Crude oil hit a high of USD40.14 per barrel and a low of USD36.63 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to witness its first support at USD35.46 per barrel and second support at USD34.29 per barrel, while the first resistance is expected at USD38.97 per barrel and second resistance at USD41.31 per barrel.

Happy pips.

Yelen how are you!?

Tópico interessante.
Vou passar por aqui de vez em quando. Felicidades!

Sê bem vindo Hatzerim . Bons trades para ti também.
Um abraço.

Weekly Forex Update
Last week, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent monetary policy meeting indicated that an interest rate hike in April was unlikely because of global risks such as weaker growth in China and financial market volatility. There was a noticeable disagreement between members as some liked to keep open the possibility for a hike in April, while others argued that the central bank should proceed cautiously until the economy picks up steam. Separately, the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, defended her decision of raising interest rates late last year, stating that the nation’s economic growth was making “substantial progress”. She further stated that the US labor market has strengthened and the nation’s inflation has moved up despite strong dollar and lower oil prices. Macroeconomic data released during the week indicated that factory orders in the US slipped more than expected for a third time in the last four months, amid weak global demand and a stronger local currency. Meanwhile, the ISM showed that growth at US services firm expanded at a faster than anticipated pace in March after a slowdown in the nation’s service activity in the prior two months. Also, the number of mortgage application in the US rebounded for the first time in four weeks in the week ended April 01. Moreover, the number of Americans filing for fresh jobless benefits increased less than forecast in the week ended April 02, indicating that the nation’s labor market continues to remain sound despite tepid economic growth.
The Euro ended the week on a stronger footing, on the back of stronger than expected retail sales data on a yearly basis, notching its fourth consecutive month increase in February, led by lower oil prices and a slowly falling unemployment rate. However, gains in the common-currency were kept in check, after the final estimate of the manufacturing as well as the services PMI fell short of consensus estimates in March. Additionally, German factory orders unexpectedly dipped on a monthly basis in February, highlighting that the region’s top economy is suffering from a cooling of global activity. Separately, the minutes of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest policy meeting showed that board members discussed the possibility of a sharper interest rate cut but eventually decided that a smaller one was appropriate, given the current economic assessment. However, future rate cuts also remain on the table.
The British Pound ended the week in red, following dismal industrial and manufacturing output data in the UK. The nation’s manufacturing production eased more than expected on a monthly basis in February and the industrial production also contracted in the same period. The weaker figures have raised concerns over the performance of the UK economy. Meanwhile, the UK think tanker, NIESR estimated that the nation’s economic growth slowed considerably in the first quarter amid Brexit fears.

EURUSD
Last week, the EUR traded marginally higher against the USD and closed at 1.1397, after Euro-zone’s retail sales grew for a consecutive fourth month in February. Also, Germany’s trade surplus increased more than anticipated in February, as exports rebounded strongly, indicating that Germany’s economic growth could accelerate in the first quarter. In other economic news, Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence advanced marginally, but came in less than market expectations in April. Moreover, the region’s unemployment rate improved slightly to 10.3% in February, from 10.4% recorded in the prior month. Additionally, final estimate showed that services sector in the Euro-zone and in its peripheries expanded less-than-expected in March, highlighting an uphill task for the ECB to prop up the Euro economy. Meanwhile, German industrial output dipped in February, dragged down by weak manufacturing output. The pair traded at a high of 1.1455 and a low of 1.1327 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.1331 and second support at 1.1265, while the first resistance is expected at 1.1460 and second resistance at 1.1522. This week, investors would keep a watch on Eurozone’s industrial production, consumer price index and trade balance data for further cues. Additionally, Germany’s consumer price index will also attract market attention.

GBPUSD
During the previous week, the GBP traded 0.68% lower against the USD and ended at 1.4127, on the back disappointing manufacturing and industrial production data. The manufacturing production dropped more-than expected and the industrial activity eased unexpectedly on a monthly basis in February, thus both acting as a drag on the UK economy. Another set of data showed that UK’s construction activity remained unchanged in March from February, staying at its slowest rate for growth output since June 2013. Meanwhile, the services sector PMI edged up in March, after reaching its lowest level in nearly three years in the previous month. However, the sector still remained sluggish, due to slowing global economy as well as uncertainty over the upcoming EU membership referendum. The pair traded at a high of 1.4324 and a low of 1.4006 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.3979, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3833. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4297, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4469. Looking ahead, investors will focus on UK’s consumer price inflation data, and the CB leading economic index for further direction. Moreover, the BoE’s interest rate decision will keep investors on their toes.

USDJPY
The USD traded 3.24% lower against the JPY last week, with the pair closing at 108.09. On the data front, Japan’s leading index eased for a fourth straight month in February, at par with market expectations and the coincident index fell at its fastest pace since March 2011 in the same month. Moreover, the Nikkei services PMI declined and recorded a nine-month low level in March. In other economic news, the nation’s trade balance on a BOP basis posted a surplus in February while the consumer confidence in Japan rose more-than-expected in March, indicating growing optimism in consumers regarding Japan’s economy. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 111.77 and a low of 107.67. The pair is expected to find its first support at 106.57 and first resistance at 110.67. The second support is expected at 105.07 and second resistance at 113.26. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to Japan’s machine tool order, industrial production data all scheduled for release this week.

USDCHF
Last week, the USD traded 0.53% lower against the CHF and closed at 0.9528. In economic news, Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.5%in March, from a level of 3.4% recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, the consumer price inflation rose 0.3%, on a monthly basis in March, in line with market expectations It followed an advance of 0.2% in February. Additionally, foreign currency reserves also increased in March. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9623 and a low of 0.9521. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.9496, followed by 0.9457, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.9598, followed by 0.9661. Going forward, investors this week would keep a watch on Switzerland’s producer and import prices data for further cues.

USDCAD
During the previous week, the USD traded 0.18% lower against the CAD and ended at 1.2988, In economic news, Canada’s international merchandise trade deficit widened sharply in February, growing three times from its previous month’s level. Moreover, the Ivey purchasing managers’ index dipped again in March, casting doubts on the nation’s manufacturing prospects. Meanwhile, unemployment rate in Canada unexpectedly fell to 7.1% in March, following a surge in job gain in the labor market. Additionally, housing starts in Canada eased less-than-expected in March and building permits jumped more than market forecasts in February. The USD hit a high of 1.3220 and a low of 1.2952 against the CAD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2887, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2786. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3155, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3322. Moving ahead, market participants this week would closely monitor the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision and monetary policy report, to get better insights in the Canadian economy.

AUDUSD
The AUD traded 1.64% lower against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 0.7554. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rate unchanged at 2.0% for the straight eleventh month. Meanwhile, the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, indicated that an appreciation in the Aussie could complicate the adjustment currently under way in the nation’s economy. On the macroeconomic front, Australia’s retail sales came in below expectations ending flat on a monthly basis in February, casting doubt over the ability of household spending to boost economic growth in the year ahead. Moreover, the nation’s trade deficit expanded surprisingly in February. Additionally, the services sector activity slid towards contraction in March and the construction activity eased further in the same month. The pair traded at a high of 0.7675 and a low of 0.7492 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 0.7473 and second support at 0.7391, while the first resistance is expected at 0.7656 and second resistance at 0.7757. Moving ahead, market participants will keep a close watch on Australia’s unemployment rate and consumer inflation expectation. Further, traders will watch National Australia Bank’s business conditions, Westpac consumer confidence and financial stability review all scheduled for the week.

Gold
Gold traded 1.48% higher during the previous week, closing at USD1240.69 per ounce, as a broad weakness in the US Dollar, soft global macroeconomic data and the Fed’s cautious stance towards hiking interest rate increased demand for the precious yellow metal. Gold hit a high of USD1245.00 per ounce and a low of USD1215.70 per ounce during the previous week. Gold is expected to its find support at USD1222.20 per ounce, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD1204.30 per ounce. The yellow metal is expected to find its first resistance at USD1251.50 per ounce, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD1262.90 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil strengthened 7.96% to close at USD39.72 per barrel, amid renewed hopes of a freeze in oil production, as producers from within and outside the OPEC will meet in Doha on April 17. Moreover, oil prices further strengthened the US Energy Department reported that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 4.9mn bls during the last week to 529.9mn bls and the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude oil inventories declined by 4.3mn bls last week. Additionally, Baker Hughes reported that the US oil rig count declined by 8 to a level of 354, reaching its lowest level since November in the week ended 08 April. Last week, the commodity traded at a high of USD39.84 per barrel and a low of USD35.24 per barrel. Crude oil is expected to witness its first support at USD36.65 per barrel and second support at USD33.65 per barrel, while the first resistance is expected at USD41.25 per barrel and second resistance at USD42.85 per barrel.

Good trades.

#FX Weekly Forex Update
Last week, macroeconomic data showed that US consumer prices rebounded less than expected on a monthly basis in March, suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to stick to its cautious approach on increasing interest rates in the near term. The dismal inflation figures were driven by a fall in clothing prices and lower healthcare inflation. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, registered its smallest increase since August 2015. Separately, various speeches by key Fed officials painted a mixed picture of the interest rate decision in the US. The Richmond Fed President, Jeffrey Lacker, lent his support for the central bank’s previous forecast of four interest rate increases in 2016. However, the Philadelphia Fed President, Patrick Harker, stated that he expects the central bank to delay further rate hikes until the nation’s inflation rate picks up.
In other economic news, industrial output in the US contracted for a second consecutive month in March, due to a decline in mining and car manufacturing. The weakness in the nation’s industrial sector pointed to cooling in the economy since the start of the year. Additionally, the Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index eased for a fourth month in a row in April, highlighting that the Americans are worried about the country’s economic outlook. Also, retail sales unexpected declined in March, indicating a very weak first quarter for the US economy. On the other hand, the number of people applying for new unemployment benefits in the nation fell to its lowest level since 1973 in the week ended April 09, indicating that the labor market continues to strengthen despite a sluggish economy.
The Euro ended the week in the red, after the Euro-zone’s industrial production declined more than market expectations on a monthly basis in February, raising concerns over the overall economic growth in the common-currency region. On the contrary, consumer prices in Germany continued to grow for a second straight month in March. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone’s trade surplus narrowed in February.
The British Pound ended the week on a stronger footing, after the nation’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly edged up to its highest level in 15 months in March, driven by higher air fares and clothing prices due to an early Easter. However, despite the increase, the inflation rate remains well below the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target. Separately, the BoE’s nine-member monetary policy committee voted unanimously to leave interest rates at their historic low of 0.50%. The minutes of the central bank’s meeting revealed that a vote over Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU) could harm the economic growth and could have a significant impact on the exchange rate and other UK assets. Meanwhile, construction output in the UK slipped in February, however construction of new homes rose at its fastest pace in two years.

EURUSD
During the previous week, the EUR traded 1.0% lower against the USD and ended at 1.1284. In economic news, Germany’s consumer prices rose 0.8%, in line with market expectations on a monthly basis in March. Further, Eurozone’s consumer prices rose on an annual basis in March, but remained below the ECB’s inflation target of 2.0%. In other economic news, the Euro-zone’s industrial activity eased more-than-market expectations in February, but remained on track to grow in the first quarter due to a strong start in 2016. Additionally, the Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus narrowed in February. Separately, at the recent International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) meeting, the organization insisted that the region’s member countries should boost growth by increasing spending to handle the slowing global growth. Further, the IMF also expressed concerns regarding the consequences of a possible Brexit from the EU and the declining oil prices. The pair traded at a high of 1.1466 and a low of 1.1233 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.1189 and second support at 1.1094, while the first resistance is expected at 1.1423 and second resistance at 1.1561. This week, investors would keep a watch on the ECB’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement in its April meeting. Moreover, investors would monitor the Markit services PMI and manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone for further direction. Additionally, the current account balance, the ZEW economic sentiment of the Euro-zone and Germany would be on investors’ radar.

GBPUSD
Last week, the GBP traded 0.54% higher against the USD and closed at 1.4203, after consumer prices climbed in the UK rose 0.5%, its highest level for 15 months on an annual basis in March, but remained far below BoE’s inflation target of 2.0%. Separately, the Bank of England kept the key interest rate steady at 0.5% and the quantitative easing program on hold at £375.00bn. Further, the central bank warned that the Britain’s exit from the EU could seriously hurt the economic growth in the nation and weigh heavily on the Pound. The BoE minutes indicated that the Brexit could result in slow economic growth in the second quarter and could be seen affecting investment decisions. Separately, the IMF’s, Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, stated that UK’s exit from the EU was one of the reasons for a weaker global outlook and urged Britain to stay in the EU, as uncertainty surrounding the matter was already weighing on UK’s economy. The pair traded at a high of 1.4349 and a low of 1.4091 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.4080 and second support at 1.3956, while the first resistance is expected at 1.4338 and second resistance at 1.4472. Looking ahead, investors will focus on UK’s ILO unemployment rate and claimant count rate for further cues. Moreover, retail sales, public sector net borrowing and CBI trades survey will also attract market attention.

USDJPY
Last week, the USD traded 0.65% higher against the JPY and closed at 108.79. In IMF’s recent meeting, the MD, Christine Lagarde, announced that the organization was carefully watching Japapn’s foreign currency trading for signs of excessive volatility. The agency lowered Japan’s economic growth outlook to 0.5% from its earlier forecast of 1%. For 2017, the IMF projected Japanese economy to shrink 0.1% on the implementation of additional consumption tax. On the data front, Japan’s industrial output tumbled in February, contracting the most since March 2011, due to lower export demand while the nation’s capacity utilization also declined in February. The USD hit a high of 109.74 and a low of 107.63 against the JPY in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 107.69, followed by 106.61, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 109.80, followed by 110.82. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to Japan’s adjusted merchandise trade balance, imports and exports and the Nikkei manufacturing PMI all scheduled for release this week.

USDCHF
Last week, the USD traded 1.6% higher against the CHF and closed at 0.968. On the data front, Switzerland’s producer and import prices eased less-than-expectations on an annual basis in March. The USD hit a high of 0.9691 and a low of 0.9498 against the CHF in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.9554, followed by 0.9429, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.9747, followed by 0.9815. Going forward, investors this week would keep a watch on Switzerland’s ZEW survey for expectations and trade balance for further cues.

USDCAD
Last week, the USD traded 1.3% lower against the CAD and closed at 1.282. The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during its latest monetary policy meeting. The central bank further upgraded its economic outlook for 2016 as it anticipated new stimulus measures from the government outweighing economic problems. In other economic news, the manufacturing shipments in Canada eased more than expectations on a monthly basis in February and existing home sales advanced in the same period. The pair traded at a high of 1.3018 and a low of 1.2745 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2705, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2589. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2978, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3135. Moving ahead, market participants would closely monitor consumer price index, retail sales and wholesale sales for further direction in the CAD.

AUDUSD
During the previous week, the AUD traded 2.24% higher against the USD and ended at 0.7723, after Australia’s unemployment rate fell in March and the employment levels climbed higher than estimates during the same month. Other economic data showed that consumer’s inflation expectations rose in April and the NAB’s business confidence climbed in March. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s financial stability review indicated that the country’s financial system was in good shape andthe household resilience remained robust supported by job growth and low rates, while the resources sector has considerably declined. In other economic news, the number of home loans approved in Australia grew in February, indicating a solid demand in the housing market. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence in Australia eased in April, indicating a pessimistic view about the Australian economy in people’s mind. The AUD hit a high of 0.7739 and a low of 0.7528 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 0.7589, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7452. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7800, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7875. Moving ahead, market participants will keep a close watch on Australia’s CB leading indicator and the RBA recent meeting minutes for further direction. Moreover, the Westpac leading index and NAB’s business confidence for the first quarter will grab market attention.

Gold
Gold fell last week, closing 0.54% lower at USD1233.99 per ounce, after rising higher earlier in the week due to a weakness in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, bullion investors look forward to US macroeconomic data for further clues on how the Fed will proceed on monetary policy. The yellow metal hit a high of USD1264.70 per ounce and a low of USD1225.40 per ounce in the previous week. The yellow metal is expected to witness its first support at USD1219.23 per ounce and second support at USD1202.67 per ounce, while the first resistance is expected at USD1258.53 per ounce and second resistance at USD1281.27 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil strengthened 1.61% to close at USD40.36 per barrel, amid hopes that Sunday’s meeting in Doha would be fruitful and the top oil producers would reach an output agreement. Separately, the US Energy Department reported that US crude oil inventories rose more than anticipated by 6.60mn bls last week and the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories advanced by 6.20mn bls last week. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported that US oil rig count fell by 3 to 440 last week. Last week, the commodity traded at a high of USD42.42 per barrel and a low of USD39.25 per barrel. Crude oil is expected to witness its first support at USD38.96 per barrel and second support at USD37.52 per barrel, while the first resistance is expected at USD42.13 per barrel and second resistance at USD43.86 per barrel.

Good trades

Attached Image

Weekly Forex Update

The highlight of the week was the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision after the central bank kept the benchmark interest rate, deposit rate and marginal lending facility rate on hold. However, the ECB President, Mario Draghi, kept the room open for a future rate cut and brushed off Germany’s criticism over his ultra-loose monetary policy. Further, he stated that uncertainty regarding Brexit would continue to weigh heavily on financial markets at least till the day of referendum. Additionally, he mentioned that the consequences of UK’s exit could impact the Eurozone’s economy minimally.
The Euro traded ended the week in red, following mixed private sector activity data in the Euro-zone and Germany. Data indicated that Eurozone’s manufacturing as well as services activity quickened less than market forecasts in April, indicating slower pace of growth in the region. On the other hand, the ZEW’s survey indicated that the economic sentiment in the Eurozone climbed to a three month high in April and the consumer confidence rose slightly in the same month to stop three months of decline. In Germany, the ZEW survey for economic sentiment improved higher than forecast in April, rising for the second straight month, indicating modest economic growth in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the producer prices in the nation fell in March, registering its sharpest fall in over six years.
The US Dollar ended the week on a strong footing, after the number of Americans applying for fresh unemployment benefits declined to its lowest levels in the past 4 decades last week, pointing towards continued development and a robust US labor market. On the other hand, the Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell in April, registering its lowest level in six and a half years. Moreover, the Chicago National Activity index edged lower in March and the Philadelphia manufacturing index slipped back into the contraction territory in April, suggesting that the nation’s manufacturing sector is still struggling.
In other economic news housing starts eased more-than-expected in March and the building permits for new home constructions touched a one-year low in the same month. The figures suggested a slowing housing market with signs of a slowdown in the first quarter economic growth. On the contrary, existing home sales rose on a monthly basis in March and the housing price index advanced in February.
The British Pound ended the week in green. Data indicated that the claimant count in the UK unexpectedly climbed for the first time since mid-2015 in March. Meanwhile, unemployment rate in the nation remained unchanged and in line with estimates in February. Moreover, the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, stated that Britain’s exit from the European Union could be a hindrance to UK’s economic growth, as it might lead to lower growth in the nation.

EURUSD
The EUR traded 0.53% lower against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.1224. The European Central Bank (ECB) held the main refinancing interest rate at 0.0%. In other economic news, the preliminary estimate of the manufacturing as well as services activity in the Euro-zone unexpectedly slowed in April, indicating that the single-currency region’s economic recovery is cooling. Meanwhile, Germany’s manufacturing PMI came in above market expectations in April while the services PMI missed consensus estimates. Meanwhile, the nation’s ZEW economic sentiment improved more-than-expected in April and producer prices dropped on an annual basis in March. Other economic data showed that the region’s consumer confidence improved marginally in April to end three months of decline. However, the index remains below the levels that prevailed throughout 2015. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.1394 and a low of 1.1218. The pair is expected to find support at 1.1165, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1104. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1341, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1456. This week, investors would keep a watch on the Eurozone’s industrial and consumer confidence, services and economic sentiment indicator for further cues. Moreover, the region’s as well as Germany’s unemployment rate and consumer price index data will grab market attention.

GBPUSD
During the previous week, the GBP traded 1.4% higher against the USD and ended at 1.4402. On the macro economic front, Britain’s unemployment advanced for the first time in seven months, signaling that the UK’s upcoming vote to leave the EU referendum was weighing heavily on the jobs market. The unemployment rate steadied at a level of 5.1% and the total average weekly earnings growth remained subdued in the three months to February, thus indicating sluggish wage growth. In more economic news, retail sales dropped on a monthly basis in March as households cut back on food and clothes, suggesting that consumers are less optimistic about the UK economy. Further, the public sector net borrowing fell more-than-expected in March and the Rightmove house prices advanced to a record high in April. Separately, the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, indicated that the decision to quit the EU could be a struggle for UK’s economic growth. He indicated that consequences of Brexit included pressures on Britain's record current account deficit, and liquidity in financial markets. The pair traded at a high of 1.4454 and a low of 1.4131 during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.4205, followed by 1.4007, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.4527, followed by 1.4651. Looking ahead, investors will focus on UK’s preliminary gross domestic product, GfK’s consumer confidence, mortgage approvals and Nationwide housing prices and CBI distributive trades survey for future direction in the Pound.

USDJPY
During the previous week, the USD traded 2.77% higher against the JPY and ended at 111.81. On the data front, Japan’s merchandise trade surplus expanded less-than-expected in March. On the other hand, the exports fell for a straight six month in March, but the sharper decline was seen in the imports for the same month. Moreover, the Nikkei manufacturing PMI contracted further at the quickest pace in more-than three years in April. Further, the tertiary industry index eased less-than-expected on a monthly basis in February. The USD hit a high of 111.81 and a low of 107.84 against the JPY in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 109.14 and second support at 106.50, while the first resistance is expected at 113.11 and second resistance at 114.45. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate decision & monetary policy statement along with the BOJ outlook report for further cues. Moreover, Japan’s unemployment rate, industrial production, and national consumer price index would be keenly observed by investors this week.

USDCHF
The USD traded 1.05% higher against the CHF last week, with the pair closing at 0.9782. On the data front, Switzerland’s ZEW index for economic expectations advanced in April, marking its highest reading in 2016, thus indicating improved outlook for the Swiss economy, Meanwhile, the nation’s trade surplus narrowed in March. The USD hit a high of 0.9797 and a low of 0.9585 against the CHF in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9647 and first resistance at 0.9860. The second support is expected at 0.9510 and second resistance at 0.9935. Going forward, investors this week would keep a watch on Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator and KOF leading indicator for further cues.

USDCAD
The USD traded 1.17% lower against the CAD last week, with the pair closing at 1.2670. In economic news, Canada’s retail sales grew unexpectedly in February, a consecutive second increase, indicating a positive sign for the Canadian economy, as it is on track to achieve robust growth in the first quarter. Moreover, the nation’s consumer prices rose more than expected by 1.3% on a yearly basis in March, amid lower energy prices. Further, the Bank of Canada’s consumer prices advanced 0.7% on a monthly basis in March. Meanwhile, the wholesale sales dropped on a monthly basis in February. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.2992 and a low of 1.2593. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2510 and first resistance at 1.2909. The second support is expected at 1.2352 and second resistance at 1.3150. Moving ahead, market participants would closely monitor Canada’s gross domestic product, the industrial product price and raw material price indices for further direction in the CAD.

AUDUSD
During the previous week, the AUD traded 0.18% lower against the USD and ended at 0.7709, after Australia’s CB leading indicator declined in February and the Westpac leading indicator dropped on a monthly basis in March, still indicating a below trend growth in Australian economy. Moreover, the National Australian Bank’s business confidence dipped in 1Q16. Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that board members agreed that the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate on the back of reasonable prospects for continued growth in the Australian economy. The central bank reiterated that continuing low inflation could allow for a future rate cut if the nation’s jobs sector needed a boost. Meanwhile, the monetary authority also warned that appreciating exchange rate could complicate progress in activity rebalancing towards the non-mining sectors of the economy. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.7836 and a low of 0.7635. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.7616, followed by 0.7525, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.7818, followed by 0.7928. Moving ahead, market participants will keep a close watch on Australia’s consumer price index and private sector credit growth data for further direction.

Gold
During the previous week, gold traded 0.10% lower and ended at USD1233.03 per ounce, asa broad strength in the greenback, reduced demand for the precious yellow metal. Meanwhile, upbeat US initial jobless claims data raised speculation that the Fed may raise interest rates earlier than expected. The yellow metal hit a high of USD1272.40 per ounce and a low of USD1228.50 per ounce in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at USD1217.33 per ounce, followed by USD1200.97 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in USD1261.23 per ounce, followed by USD1288.77 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil strengthened 8.35% to close at USD43.73 per barrel, although, the much awaited top oil producers meeting in Doha on April 17, did not materialize and further raised oversupply concerns as Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran should join in the oil output agreement. Meanwhile, a strike in Kuwait by the oil and gas workers went on for 3 days which cut Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’(OPEC) crude production by half. Moreover, the US Energy Department reported that US crude oil inventories rose less than anticipated by 2.1mn bls to 538.6mn bls last week, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude oil inventories advanced by 3.1mn bls last week. The commodity traded at a high of USD44.49 per barrel and a low of USD39.35 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to witness its first support at USD40.57 per barrel and second support at USD37.39 per barrel, while the first resistance is expected at USD45.71 per barrel and second resistance at USD47.67 per barrel.

Good trades.

Vacaciones culturales Maio

Continuation of cultural holidays Set16
Good trades.

#Foreign Exchange Market Data Update
Last week, the forex market was dictated by the outcome of the US Presidential election.
The greenback ended the week higher, as investors digested the shock of Donald Trump pulling off a stunning victory in the US Presidential election. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chair, Stanley Fisher, in his first remarks since the Presidential election, stated that the central bank is close to achieving its dual mandate of 2.0% longer-run inflation target and maximization of employment. Further, he noted that economic growth prospects appear “strong enough” for the central bank to proceed with a gradual increase in interest rates. Separately, the Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, expressed concerns that even though inflation has picked up and is close to the Fed’s 2.0% target, the central bank may not be able to reach that goal. He also added that it would be reasonable to hike interest rates in December, citing strength in the US economy. Additionally, the St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, continued to endorse another rate hike next month and reiterated his call for monetary policy to remain accommodative with just a single 0.25% rate hike over the next two to three years.
In other economic news, the flash Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index in the US surged to a five-month high in November, indicating that Americans became more upbeat about the nation’s economic outlook. Moreover, the number of Americans filing for fresh unemployment benefits dropped more than anticipated in the week ended 05 November, pointing towards healthy momentum in the nation’s labor market. Additionally, the NFIB small business optimism index surprisingly notched its highest level since December 2015 in October.
The Euro ended the week on a weaker footing. The European Commission, in its first economic forecast since the Brexit vote, raised the Euro-zone’s growth projection for this year but slashed it for 2017, citing increased political uncertainty, including Britain’s decision to leave the European Union and weakening global trade. The Commission projected the region to grow by a modest 1.7% this year, from 1.6% estimated earlier in May, while the growth projection for next year was trimmed to 1.5% from 1.8%. Further, the commission forecasted that inflation in the common currency region would hit 1.4% in both 2017 and 2018, after rising to 0.3% this year, thus offering some signs of relief to the European Central Bank (ECB), which is struggling to spur inflation in the region.
The Yen ended the week lower. Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent monetary policy meeting disclosed that most policymakers believed it could take time for inflation expectations to firm and noted that the nation’s economic rebound was continuing at an acceptable pace.

EURUSD
Last week, the EUR traded 2.56% lower against the USD and closed at 1.0850, after the Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index jumped in November. Meanwhile, the region’s seasonally adjusted retail sales eased less than expected on a monthly basis in September. Elsewhere, in Germany, the final consumer price index accelerated on an annual basis in October. Moreover, the nation’s Markit construction PMI expanded in the same month. On the contrary, the nation’s seasonally adjusted factory orders unexpectedly declined in September. Also, the nation’s seasonally adjusted industrial production dropped more than expected in the same month. Further, the nation’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in September, while exports fell less than expected in the same month. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.1300 and a low of 1.0830. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.0685, followed by 1.0522, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.1155, followed by 1.1462. This week, investors would focus on gross domestic product (GDP) and ZEW survey of economic sentiment across the Eurozone along with the region’s industrial production and consumer price inflation data and a speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi.

GBPUSD
During the previous week, the GBP traded 0.66% higher against the USD and ended at 1.2599. The European Commission projected that the UK economy to pick up pace this year, growing by 1.9% from an earlier forecast of 1.8%, but nearly halved its economic growth outlook for 2017, due to the impact of the Brexit vote. It now expects the UK economy to grow by 1.0% in 2017, much lower than 1.9% projected earlier. Meanwhile, UK’s inflation is expected to rise rapidly to 2.5% next year, much higher than the 1.7% forecast made in May, mostly driven by the depreciation of the domestic currency. In other economic news, UK’s industrial production unexpectedly dropped in September. On the contrary, the nation’s manufacturing production jumped in the same month. Additionally, the NIESR estimated UK economy to grow by 0.4% in the three months to October. Further, the nation’s BRC retail sales advanced in October, while the RICS house price balance unexpectedly rose in the same month. The GBP hit a high of 1.2674 and a low of 1.2354 against the USD in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.2410, followed by 1.2222, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.2730, followed by 1.2862. Looking ahead, investors anxiously await the release of UK’s consumer price inflation, ILO unemployment rate and retail sales data, all due to release this week.

USDJPY
Last week, the USD traded 3.44% higher against the JPY and closed at 106.67. According to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest summary of opinions report, not all policymakers doubted that inflation would reach its 2.0% target within its projection period, partially because of a vigilant outlook on inflation expectations. Further, the BoJ has predicted the year-on-year consumer price index to reach its 2.0% target around fiscal 2018. Another set of economic data showed that, Japan’s trade surplus (BOP basis) widened less than expected in September. Additionally, the nation’s Eco Watchers survey for the current situation surprisingly climbed in October, whereas Eco Watchers survey for the future outlook unexpectedly advanced in the same month. Also, the nation’s flash machinery orders eased more than expected in September. Meanwhile, the tertiary industry index eased in September. The USD hit a high of 106.95 and a low of 101.20 against the JPY in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 102.98 and second support at 99.21, while the first resistance is expected at 108.73 and second resistance at 110.71. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to a speech by the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, along with Japan’s GDP and industrial production data, scheduled to release this week.

USDCHF
The USD traded 2.01% higher against the CHF last week, with the pair closing at 0.9875. Macroeconomic data indicated that, Switzerland’s consumer price index advanced less than anticipated in October. Further, the nation’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 3.3% in October, meeting market expectations. The pair traded at a high of 0.9897 and a low of 0.9550 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 0.9655 and second support at 0.9429, while the first resistance is expected at 1.0002 and second resistance at 1.0123. Moving ahead, investors will look forward to Switzerland’s ZEW economic survey, the sole important release this week.

USDCAD
During the previous week, the USD traded 1.03% higher against the CAD and ended at 1.3540. On the economic front, Canada’s seasonally adjusted housing starts dropped in October. Further, the nation’s building permits dropped more than expected in September. On the contrary, the nation’s new housing price index rose in the same month, meeting market expectations. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3548 and a low of 1.3265. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.3358 and second support at 1.3170, while the first resistance is expected at 1.3641 and second resistance at 1.3736. Going forward, Canada’s consumer price index and existing home sales data, slated to release this week would garner a lot of market attention.

AUDUSD
During the previous week, the AUD traded 1.56% lower against the USD and ended at 0.7550. Data indicated that Australia’s consumer inflation expectations dropped in November. Additionally, the nation’s business confidence index eased in October, while the business conditions index dropped in the same month. Moreover, the nation’s Westpac consumer confidence index declined in November. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.7778 and a low of 0.7525. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.7453, followed by 0.7363, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.7706, followed by 0.7869. Looking ahead, Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting minutes accompanied with Australia’s unemployment rate and Westpac leading index data, all scheduled to release this week, would generate a lot of market attention.

Gold
Gold traded 5.93% lower during the previous week, closing at USD1227.64 per ounce, amid strength in the greenback and global equities, as investors shrugged off uncertainty due to an unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential election. The yellow metal witnessed a high of USD1338.30 per ounce and a low of USD1218.70 per ounce in the previous week. Gold is expected to its find support at USD1184.70 per ounce, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD1141.90 per ounce. The yellow metal is expected to find its first resistance at USD1304.30 per ounce, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD1381.10 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Crude oil traded 1.5% lower in the previous week, closing at USD43.41 per barrel, after the IEA and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that OPEC pumped record high crude oil in October, resurfacing supply glut concerns. The IEA also warned that if the supply glut persists in 2017 and if some individual members continue to expand their crude production, it could lead to “relentless supply growth”. Oil prices failed to find support, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude stockpiles rose more than estimated by 2.4 million barrels to 485.1 million barrels during week ended 04 November, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) disclosed that US crude oil inventories rose more than expected by 4.4 million barrels during the last week. Crude oil hit a high of USD45.95 per barrel and a low of USD43.03 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to its find support at USD42.14 per barrel, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD41.12 per barrel. The yellow metal is expected to find its first resistance at USD45.06 per barrel, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD46.96 per barrel.

Traders, how the operations run!?? Always watchful. Happy pips.