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  • #661
  • Edited 5:05pm Mar 19, 2016 4:41pm | Edited 5:05pm
Quoting asyi
Thomas Edison said, "Ones greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time." And a fellow named Tom Krause said, "Courage is the discovery that you may not win, and trying when you know you can lose." We have all blown up accounts (I certainly have) but at the end of the day we hear that quiet voice "I will try again tomorrow."
My very first account was around 100 and I lost over half of that within a few days and wondered what I was doing wrong, I was doing what almost all websites tell you how to trade so maybe that is the problem, to lure in suckers to feed the beast.

Think outside the box and ignore all the shit on all websites. For me, the best pairs to trade are GBPJPY, GBPAUD and EURAUD, I studied past price action on most pairs and these 3 came back as the best for my trading style, and because of that I apply the predictable movement from certain areas into my trading and it pays off.

GBPAUD likes to poke just above highs or under lows before bouncing back. GBPAUD also loves quarter numbers...xxx.25 and xxx.75, GBPJPY loves to test absolute highs and lows before reacting, depending on the timeframe you are looking at and the actual candle in question which made the high or low. EURAUD I love because it's so predictable especially at supply & demand areas on the 5minute timeframe, it bounces away on almost every area....what's an area? the candle which a move started and went on to make a new high or low in relation to the price action directly to the left of the current price...if that is the case, if I was going long, a buy limit is put just above the close price if lowest candle is bearish, or the open price or very low of a bullish candle if that made the low...vice versa for sell...a bullish candle made the high? sell limit at the close price or at the very high depending if I was shorting gbpjpy or euraud, a bearish candle made the high?...sell limit at the open price...

Also, where are most retailers most likely to have their stops? these areas or levels are very good entrys with a very low risk to high reward.
  • #662
  • Mar 19, 2016 4:57pm Mar 19, 2016 4:57pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} I don't agree , provided your entry is correct and all the parameters are right, you are looking at 90%+
I meant it is 50% if you open a trade in a random direction.
btw can you put a shirt on that trade explorer? You are making my trade explorer feel uncomfortable.



,..,
Price-Action Extremist
  • #663
  • Mar 19, 2016 5:03pm Mar 19, 2016 5:03pm
Quoting bagman
{quote} I meant it is 50% if you open a trade in a random direction. btw can you put a shirt on that trade explorer? You are making my trade explorer feel uncomfortable. ,..,
Ah right. I was targeting 100% instead of the 70. The PA on a friday doesn't behave like it should, I find tuesday, wednesday and thursdays the best days to trade, and not around major news releases on said days and I blame my positions on the friday for not achieving said goal. :nerd:

I'll put a Leopard skin man thong on it, that sound ok?
  • #664
  • Mar 19, 2016 5:22pm Mar 19, 2016 5:22pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} The "pre-ming" days, now that is really funny. I did not realize I have had such an effect ... Well, actually I do In the "pre-ming" days there were a lot more "guru" talk preaching to the enthralled-crowd-of-gaga-followers. Back in the "pre-ming" days the gurus' super-duper-galactic-no-loss systems could make you a millionaires in two days.... for a fee. But wait, what do I see... oh no, forex has dried out and look over there, the pesky forex scammers have now come up with "forex binary options"!, darn it! I must go. My people need me...
Truth or lies, it's all in the perspective.

Btw, you are quite entertaining and good with words. Carry on since all this can get really dry
Live life king size !
  • #665
  • Mar 19, 2016 5:33pm Mar 19, 2016 5:33pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} My very first account was around 100 and I lost over half of that within a few days and wondered what I was doing wrong, I was doing what almost all websites tell you how to trade so maybe that is the problem, to lure in suckers to feed the beast. Think outside the box and ignore all the shit on all websites. For me, the best pairs to trade are GBPJPY, GBPAUD and EURAUD, I studied past price action on most pairs and these 3 came back as the best for my trading style, and because of that I apply the predictable movement from certain areas...
Hi GDR3k

I stumbled upon a very similar strategy to what you are trading. I call the strategy "levels trading" but I combine my levels with EMA's which tend to reinforce the decision. I also go for minimum 30 pips a trade. The fact that you are doing so well bears testament to it being a very good strategy. Mine actually works on all the pairs but I agree on GBPJPY and EURAUD. But GBPNZD, GBPCAD ,EURCAD, GBPCHF even EURJPY also work with it. Strangely enough GBPAUD not so well. Anyway we must definirely compare notes. Very interesting indeed!

Regards
JM
  • #666
  • Mar 19, 2016 5:55pm Mar 19, 2016 5:55pm
I posted a 16 years backtest that proves (to some degree) the predictability of the market.
Does it count ? Of course noooot...

They're still seeing trading as gambling, because the market may change, so the past data is not reliable.

Any other business is like that... and like any other business it's a matter of time, money and effort.

If you still not getting results, WHAT'S THE PROBLEM? just move to another business.
  • #667
  • Mar 19, 2016 5:58pm Mar 19, 2016 5:58pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} My very first account was around 100 and I lost over half of that within a few days and wondered what I was doing wrong, I was doing what almost all websites tell you how to trade so maybe that is the problem, to lure in suckers to feed the beast. Think outside the box and ignore all the shit on all websites. For me, the best pairs to trade are GBPJPY, GBPAUD and EURAUD, I studied past price action on most pairs and these 3 came back as the best for my trading style, and because of that I apply the predictable movement from certain areas...
Excellent post, Gbp/Jpy is also my bread and butter
  • #668
  • Mar 19, 2016 6:00pm Mar 19, 2016 6:00pm
Quoting bagman
1. Don't listen to Mingary. He is just trying to bait people to show him a winning strategy. 2. The base chance of winning a trade are almost exactly 50/50. That's it. The random walk theory is complete garbage. look at some price action for 2 days and if you only see pure random noise you should get your head checked.
"He is just trying to bait people to show him a winning strategy"...you didn't think about that before you wrote it did you? One could justifiably assume that all the "winning strategies" posted on the FF are complete garbage.....which they are and remarkably no one was "baited" to post the crap.
  • #669
  • Mar 20, 2016 4:44am Mar 20, 2016 4:44am
Quoting MackS10
{quote} Excellent post, Gbp/Jpy is also my bread and butter
I trade very similar to GD nowadays too. I used to trade more traditional PA (like Nial Fuller stuff with fibs) but these days I prefer to be in and out rather than hang around risking getting slaughtered. But, trading like I used to has helped me enormously in reading the market. I don't put limit orders in blindly at s/r levels - it has to all fit into the bigger picture. I trade GJ too, along with EU and GU, but my most profitable are GN and EN. Not many trade EN I've noticed, but it does behave like GN. GA is a nightmare for me and I avoid that, Lol.
  • #670
  • Mar 20, 2016 5:58am Mar 20, 2016 5:58am
Quoting bagman
{quote} I meant it is 50% if you open a trade in a random direction. btw can you put a shirt on that trade explorer? You are making my trade explorer feel uncomfortable. ,..,

This is wrong, the winning chances in FX Trading are NOT 50/50.

The winning chances are always LESS than 50/50.

If you are playing roulette and betting on black or white, the chances of winning are not 50/50 as well, see here:

https://www.quora.com/If-you-bet-red...t-really-50-50
Forex is a losers game.
  • #671
  • Mar 20, 2016 8:43am Mar 20, 2016 8:43am
Quoting trader121
{quote} This is wrong, the winning chances in FX Trading are NOT 50/50. The winning chances are always LESS than 50/50. If you are playing roulette and betting on black or white, the chances of winning are not 50/50 as well, see here: https://www.quora.com/If-you-bet-red...t-really-50-50
Actually if you think about the odds are 50/50 , ( a coin flip) since it can only go up or down and with some good analysis the odds should be even better.
The Trend Is Your Friend
  • #672
  • Edited 10:40am Mar 20, 2016 10:22am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Wrong {quote} Right I see you are making progress. Again I will have to say: I am certain that you are not making a living trading the forex as your only source of income from the comfort of your home. On a side note, you seem to totally dismiss that I am describing the business model of an entire industry. The only reason I may be upsetting a few people is because their lunch comes from perpetuating a lie. They want the "cannon fodder" i.e. retail traders to lose and lose forever (see that's how you use "lose" in a sentence) because their...
I have been watching this argument for a while and I think Mingary has a point. Now before you all shout loser at me, we should stand back at look at the facts. Retail traders are bottom of the food chain, fact. Most brokers are MM who earn when the retail trader loses, fact. They can purchase specially written algorithms to rig their prices, fact - in order to screw the retail trader (February ICE Expo, London Excel; that software was being marketed there). The real odds are far, far less than 50/50; the spread and commission are the only parts you can see.

So what about me? I don't make a living from trading. I do it because it's fun and I can. Like I enjoy sport, like I enjoy cooking. I don't ever want to rely on Forex for a living because it is a mugs game. I have other sources of income, which are much safer and much more reliable. To make a million from trading, you would have to invest say, over 100k, most probably more. Now that is really stupid! If I am investing 100k, it most certainly won't be in trading Forex.

By the way, I am not a loser, or bitter or a troll. I can simply just see the whole picture.
  • #673
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:05am Mar 20, 2016 11:05am
Quoting jen101
{quote} I have been watching this argument for a while and I think Mingary has a point. Now before you all shout loser at me, we should stand back at look at the facts. Retail traders are bottom of the food chain, fact. Most brokers are MM who earn when the retail trader loses, fact. They can purchase specially written algorithms to rig their prices, fact - in order to screw the retail trader (February ICE Expo, London Excel; that software was being marketed there). The real odds are far, far less than 50/50; the spread and commission are the only...
You are exactly the same like Mingary, you lost at this game and are now claiming it has to be a scam because your self-esteem can not bear the fact someone else is not losing. Stop saying random words and adding fact next to it to make it sound real. Also you just told half your life story after your claim of "not needing" forex money to be happy, without anyone asking.



The base chance of any blind trade is 50/50. The only 2 things that can happen to the price is it can go up or down. That's it. There is nothing else to it. If there really was a "screw your customers over" algorithm, regulators would be on top of them almost instantly. You need to understand that financial regulators hire people that are good at math. A broker can not just pick a certain customer out and manipulate that guys pricing feed. It would be very easy to prove that. And the broker's reputation would be destroyed.

The problem with the forex haters is that they have a deep-seated paranoia about anyone who is better at something. People are making money in fx. There is nothing you can do about that. That is a fact. Deal with it. Either improve yoru trading,or do not trade. But prancing around in a cape screaming FX IS A SCAM is just annoying, desperate and insulting to traders who take this work serious.
Price-Action Extremist
  • #674
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:18am Mar 20, 2016 11:18am
Quoting bagman
{quote} You are exactly the same like Mingary, you lost at this game and are now claiming it has to be a scam because your self-esteem can not bear the fact someone else is not losing. Stop saying random words and adding fact next to it to make it sound real. Also you just told half your life story after your claim of "not needing" forex money to be happy, without anyone asking. The base chance of any blind trade is 50/50. The only 2 things that can happen to the price is it can go up or down. That's it. There is nothing else to it. If there really...
"The base chance of any blind trade is 50/50."
False.
The trade shows a loss as soon as it's in the market due to spread and commission. How can you not know that ?

"If there really was a "screw your customers over" algorithm, blah blah blah .."
Are you so naive that you don't know that any broker who must stay in business must constantly devise new ways to extract more money from the customer funds?
Of course, they have to do it all within the boundaries of those annoying regulations.

This is such basic stuff that I think you are totally new to this game, or you work for a broker.
Which is it ?
  • #675
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:23am Mar 20, 2016 11:23am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "The base chance of any blind trade is 50/50." False. The trade shows a loss as soon as it's in the market due to spread and commission. How can you not know that ? "If there really was a "screw your customers over" algorithm, blah blah blah .." Are you so naive that you don't know that any broker who must stay in business must constantly devise new ways to extract more money from the customer funds? Of course, they have to do it all within the boundaries of those annoying regulations. This is such basic stuff that I think you are totally...
I don't pay commission because I am with a market maker. Spread does not matter if it is a tiny fraction of your stop loss distance. Large market makers make so much money off spread that it would be highly improbable for them to screw over specific customers for some extra $ at the risk of a destroyed reputation. You need to weigh your paranoid fantasies against probabilities of these things happening in the real world.

Also do not call people "new to the game" when you got a self-admitted margin call after 9 years of trading experience.
Price-Action Extremist
  • #676
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:25am Mar 20, 2016 11:25am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} My very first account was around 100 and I lost over half of that within a few days and wondered what I was doing wrong, I was doing what almost all websites tell you how to trade so maybe that is the problem, to lure in suckers to feed the beast. Think outside the box and ignore all the shit on all websites. For me, the best pairs to trade are GBPJPY, GBPAUD and EURAUD, I studied past price action on most pairs and these 3 came back as the best for my trading style, and because of that I apply the predictable movement from certain areas...

Spot on! GBPJPY, and to an extentGBPNZD are very predictable. I am new in this and lost more than 50% of my account within 2 weeks, but I have clawed back most of my account. My advise to you is; Dont quit, dont listen to all the negative comments. A lot of people are living solely on forex trading, and I believe that with a bit of luck we are all gonna be winners
  • #677
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:31am Mar 20, 2016 11:31am
Quoting bagman
{quote} I don't pay commission because I am with a market maker. Spread does not matter if it is a tiny fraction of your stop loss distance.
Commission or not it's not 50%
You have to pay the forex casino "the house edge", not only that but if you don't pay commission it's certain "the house" is betting against you.

I am not that stupid to keep a large account with a forex broker, I used to transfer funds in an out as needed. Somehow, OANDA saw an opportunity to block the incoming transfer. Hence the margin call; a huge profit for "the house", and it was all done within the rules ...
So yes, if given a chance brokers will screw with your account and get away with it.
  • #678
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:34am Mar 20, 2016 11:34am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Commission or not it's not 50% You have to pay the forex casino "the house edge", not only that but if you don't pay commission it's certain "the house" is betting against you.
49.95 is as good as 50.00 for all intents and purposes. If a tiny fraction like that is the difference between losing and winning for you, well then that is your own problem and not the evil market maker making you lose.
I don't care about the house edge, I got my own.
Price-Action Extremist
  • #679
  • Edited Mar 21, 2016 2:12am Mar 20, 2016 11:42am | Edited Mar 21, 2016 2:12am
Quoting bagman
{quote} 49.95 is as good as 50.00 for all intents and purposes. If a tiny fraction like that is the difference between losing and winning for you, well then that is your own problem and not the evil market maker making you lose. I don't care about the house edge, I got my own.
Yes, but it's not 50%. You may think it's immaterial but I will take the house edge rather than the trader's edge anytime. Forex brokers are obscenely profitable, traders are not.
The house has an edge, you don't.
How do I know this ?
The house takes NO RISK.
No matter what your perceived edge might be, you are taking on risk.
  • #680
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:48am Mar 20, 2016 11:48am
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