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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,281
  • Mar 15, 2016 8:01am Mar 15, 2016 8:01am
I am inclined to agree with stylinex about things behind agreed behind closed doors. You will know what is coming when the rhetoric starts to ramp up.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,282
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:30pm Mar 17, 2016 9:30pm
Im shorting crude oil HUGE at the 41-$42 range if it holds as a ceiling.
If it breaks through then waiting until 47-49.

Inventory still not below where it needs to be to support $50+ oil....

Nat gas nearing a dangerous zone of short selling soon near $2.00 with injection season coming and summer models coming out.
  • #2,283
  • Mar 18, 2016 3:42am Mar 18, 2016 3:42am
In other words someone lied..
https://us.yahoo.com/finance/news/no...163732558.html
  • #2,284
  • Mar 18, 2016 3:49am Mar 18, 2016 3:49am
Quoting stylinex
In other words someone lied.. https://us.yahoo.com/finance/news/no...163732558.html
For one thing, we cannot trust IEA... But it's more interesting as I had mentioned a while ago in another thread that when oil rises suddenly there are a load of factors supporting the rise like this "tiny" disappearance of 800k b/d that IEA just discovered... When oil was falling the same IEA as was mentioned in the article was saying that we could drown in oversupply of oil. Makes you wonder, are they independent or are they working for someone?...What is their angle?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,285
  • Mar 18, 2016 4:08am Mar 18, 2016 4:08am
Quoting stylinex
In other words someone lied.. https://us.yahoo.com/finance/news/no...163732558.html
interesting......the china argument could hold true, maybe some of it is what somehow finds its way over the Chinese border to North Korea but that's no small number
  • #2,286
  • Mar 18, 2016 4:44am Mar 18, 2016 4:44am
Interesting, 800k barrels is not much and its 'absence' does not explain the massive quantity sitting in steel storage tanks in the USA.

Quoting S.McDuck
{quote} interesting......the china argument could hold true, maybe some of it is what somehow finds its way over the Chinese border to North Korea but that's no small number
The China / NK link is a worrying concern.

Quoting manosk
.... Makes you wonder, are they independent or are they working for someone?...
It only needs to be a 'someone' in the right place getting a kick-back.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,287
  • Mar 18, 2016 5:40am Mar 18, 2016 5:40am
Quoting stylinex
In other words someone lied.. https://us.yahoo.com/finance/news/no...163732558.html
In Germany we say: Don't ever trust statistics that you haven't falsified yourself
  • #2,288
  • Mar 18, 2016 5:54am Mar 18, 2016 5:54am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} In Germany we say: Don't ever trust statistics that you haven't falsified yourself
Will keep that in mind.
Something to keep in mind though was how before prices rose from $30-$40 there were quite a few reports in the media talking about how the market was overflowed with oil supply as oil prices rose . I wonder how much money some of these reporters were paid to report false info.
  • #2,289
  • Mar 18, 2016 6:00am Mar 18, 2016 6:00am
At the moment oil happily is going up not down
  • #2,290
  • Mar 18, 2016 6:25am Mar 18, 2016 6:25am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Will keep that in mind. Something to keep in mind though was how before prices rose from $30-$40 there were quite a few reports in the media talking about how the market was overflowed with oil supply as oil prices rose . I wonder how much money some of these reporters were paid to report false info.
agreed as mentioned before

Quoting manosk
{quote} For one thing, we cannot trust IEA... But it's more interesting as I had mentioned a while ago in another thread that when oil rises suddenly there are a load of factors supporting the rise like this "tiny" disappearance of 800k b/d that IEA just discovered... When oil was falling the same IEA as was mentioned in the article was saying that we could drown in oversupply of oil. Makes you wonder, are they independent or are they working for someone?...What is their angle?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,291
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:01am Mar 18, 2016 7:01am
I see a pullback on oil coming up. Several indicators I follow tell me that we might see a pullback to 39.80 to start and then we see.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,292
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:23am Mar 18, 2016 7:23am
Quoting manosk
I see a pullback on oil coming up. Several indicators I follow tell me that we might see a pullback to 39.80 to start and then we see.
That would be pretty helpful to me right now and I have been seeing similar but I'm getting slaughtered this month (so in truth your better off ignoring my opinion at the moment)
  • #2,293
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:37am Mar 18, 2016 7:37am
Quoting S.McDuck
{quote} That would be pretty helpful to me right now and I have been seeing similar but I'm getting slaughtered this month (so in truth your better off ignoring my opinion at the moment)
I have been a bull on oil and played it very nicely through USD/RUB and have posted extensively on the USD/RUB thread but I think we should see a pullback now. So maybe you will get some or all your money back my friend. Some EWavers say down to low 30s. I am not sure about that but surely 2-5 dollars pullback I see.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,294
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:41am Mar 18, 2016 7:41am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I have been a bull on oil and played it very nicely through USD/RUB and have posted extensively on the USD/RUB thread but I think we should see a pullback now. So maybe you will get some or all your money back my friend. Some EWavers say down to low 30s. I am not sure about that but surely 2-5 dollars pullback I see.
I think if we saw a pullback it would be a small and quick dip with a quick retreat back up again. I believe stock indexes are going forward based on oil going forward as well. It may even just hold steady here and rise more slowly. Will see next week when new options contracts start trading.
  • #2,295
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:48am Mar 18, 2016 7:48am
US Oil just over $41 now and all them candles are still green
  • #2,296
  • Mar 18, 2016 8:25am Mar 18, 2016 8:25am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I think if we saw a pullback it would be a small and quick dip with a quick retreat back up again. I believe stock indexes are going forward based on oil going forward as well. It may even just hold steady here and rise more slowly. Will see next week when new options contracts start trading.
I am with you on that, that is why I said 2-5 dollars, and if you see the rise from the low of below 26 to 41, it hasn't been one straight shot, there were minor healthy pullbacks from 31 to 28, from 37.90 to 35.6, from 38.90 to 35.90, so I expect something similar. And yes it will be quick, meaning it would last between 1-3 days. It is ripe for a pullback and I see multiple indicators as I said, among them the cross USD/RUB. It is also at a level that it needs a pullback. My humble opinion.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,297
  • Mar 20, 2016 10:22am Mar 20, 2016 10:22am
Looks like meeting for today was either cancelled or delayed till mid April. My guess is because oil is presumably going up. Russia though does not think oil prices will go up for too long so they kept their interest rates at Banks for deposits at 11%
  • #2,298
  • Mar 21, 2016 3:23am Mar 21, 2016 3:23am
Quoting stylinex
Looks like meeting for today was either cancelled or delayed till mid April. My guess is because oil is presumably going up. Russia though does not think oil prices will go up for too long so they kept their interest rates at Banks for deposits at 11%
It has been postponed to the 11th of April if I am not mistaken. They cited problems with Iran, because Iran didnt want to join but they said they will most likely go ahead anyway. If I find any article I will post it.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,299
  • Mar 24, 2016 6:21am Mar 24, 2016 6:21am
Oil on the Daily candle broke 40 so it looks like now it could drop to 38.5 and if that breaks then 37.5
  • #2,300
  • Mar 25, 2016 4:11am Mar 25, 2016 4:11am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I am with you on that, that is why I said 2-5 dollars, and if you see the rise from the low of below 26 to 41, it hasn't been one straight shot, there were minor healthy pullbacks from 31 to 28, from 37.90 to 35.6, from 38.90 to 35.90, so I expect something similar. And yes it will be quick, meaning it would last between 1-3 days. It is ripe for a pullback and I see multiple indicators as I said, among them the cross USD/RUB. It is also at a level that it needs a pullback. My humble opinion.
As far as I am concerned the pullback in oil has been completed. We can now see now highs for the move
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
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