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  • #601
  • Mar 17, 2016 2:22pm Mar 17, 2016 2:22pm
Quoting GiglingFx
{quote} Unfortunately this is the hard truth, reality would not change many traders hope for an EA profiting all the time. There are strategies that work but hard work are put into them , they(strategies) dont just make them selves working all the time .
Wrong. There aren't any.

Here are two questions you can think about:

Take a strategy that constantly loses money. It does not always lose with every trade of course, but over time, the profit curve constanly goes down.

This is very easy to find, as most "strategies" do that. I can present you dozends of strategies that constantly lose.

Now the first question is: Why is it very easy to find strategies that constantly lose? Isn't our intention to win, so that the profit curve goes up all the time?

The second question:

If all these strategies constantly lose money, why don't we reverse it? We simply sell instead of buy, buy instead of sell then we would have a constantly winning strategy?
Forex is a losers game.
  • #602
  • Mar 17, 2016 2:27pm Mar 17, 2016 2:27pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Here's an idea - keep trading exactly the same way, create a signal selling business, when publishing the signal just replace buy with sell !!! Amazing idea, you can get 5000 followers, say they pay you 20 a month. You will be millionaire. .... 10% for me..........Here's second idea - look at your past trades, don't ask people.
I am asking him to not copy it but for the seek ofvgetting missing point.Thanks for your suggestion may be its helpful to you.
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -2,370
  • #603
  • Mar 18, 2016 2:06am Mar 18, 2016 2:06am
Quoting trader121
The second question: If all these strategies constantly lose money, why don't we reverse it? We simply sell instead of buy, buy instead of sell then we would have a constantly winning strategy?
This idea has been suggested dozens of times before, including recently in this very same thread. If you're wondering why reversing a losing strategy probably won't make you profitable, see post #471.
  • #604
  • Mar 18, 2016 3:20am Mar 18, 2016 3:20am
Quoting hanover
{quote} This idea has been suggested dozens of times before, including recently in this very same thread. If you're wondering why reversing a losing strategy probably won't make you profitable, see post #471.
Hannover, what is in your opinion the best way to make Money in Forex?
Forex is a losers game.
  • #605
  • Mar 18, 2016 3:23am Mar 18, 2016 3:23am
To be successful you need 3 things: right mindset, knowledge about market structure and a money management.
  • #606
  • Mar 18, 2016 3:40am Mar 18, 2016 3:40am
Quoting trader121
{quote} Hannover, what is in your opinion the best way to make Money in Forex?
Selling "amazing" Expert Advisors
Selling "amazing" Indicators
Selling "amazing" Systems
Selling "amazing" Webinars
Selling "amazing" Signals
Creating "amazing" paying Blog/Website
Creating "amazing" paying Chat Room
Be a broker
Be a bank
Insider information

.... I don't remember any more
  • #607
  • Mar 18, 2016 4:16am Mar 18, 2016 4:16am
There is a way in this swamp. It takes time to know the ways of the swamp. You have to live with that swamp long enough to know its ways. They are there to suck your money out of you. They see you, you dont. (Remember that scene Frodo and Guglunk in Dead Swamps). Quitting is good if you will have good job. Basically in the market you are finghting with your own demons. Your bad habits comes out, acknowledge them and dry to cut them down. There is a way. I earn little in bad days, little in good days and big announcements leave to gamblers.
  • #608
  • Mar 18, 2016 4:49am Mar 18, 2016 4:49am
Quoting valdjas
There is a way in this swamp. It takes time to know the ways of the swamp. You have to live with that swamp long enough to know its ways. They are there to suck your money out of you. They see you, you dont. (Remember that scene Frodo and Guglunk in Dead Swamps). Quitting is good if you will have good job. Basically in the market you are finghting with your own demons. Your bad habits comes out, acknowledge them and dry to cut them down. There is a way. I earn little in bad days, little in good days and big announcements leave to gamblers.
Hi valdjas.

Are you talking about the dark room?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post8810257
  • #609
  • Mar 18, 2016 5:09am Mar 18, 2016 5:09am
Quoting fxstaton
I have no luck in forex. Initial period I get profit, and few months all profits and capital are gone. I think I am not suitable in forex and will quit all and back to work
For me, I focus now on just ONE spot indices. FSTE100 (which I know is bank weighted)
Life is much simpler and far less stressful. I am so much happier now with my trading experience.

I used to try to focus on just three forex pairs and even at that low number with multiple time frames I found it a challenge. Plus there was always the 'sneak peek' at other pairs and low and behold there would invariably be a setup, so for me, it was easy to overtrade. I know someone will slap me know and say "Adopt some discipline!" I just struggled with it all.

Plus I find the indices do not have the wild west random and sudden huge moves in price, overall I find them reasonably steady in price movement which suits me.
So I moved away from FX to one indices and its working for me. Just saying.
  • #610
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:07am Mar 18, 2016 7:07am
Just made a test with a strategy that uses some Kind of "brute-force" method.

Tested 8 days, and made a Profit of 11'300$, with a drawdown of 4'798$.

However, this method was made without Commissions. The total trades so far are 791 Trades, 474 Profit and 317 losing trades.

Now let's assume the comission per trade is 5$. 791 * 5$ = 3'955$. So the real Profit would be 11'300$ - 3'955 = 7345$.

The question is if this strategy can survive on a Long term Basis. Probably not, let's see how it develops

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Forex is a losers game.
  • #611
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:18am Mar 18, 2016 7:18am
Now 16 Days tested. Still works, the Maximum drawdown has been widened to 6'136.

Total Profit is now 17'128

Total trades number of trades: 1275

The return on the starting capital of 35'000$ is now 48%.
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Forex is a losers game.
  • #612
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:51am Mar 18, 2016 7:51am
Now tested the whole month (March 2010). Maybe the best way is to brute-force Money out of the market, I don't know.

Maximum Drawdown widened to 15'530.

Total Profit is 32'664.

The Big Question is now, how does it look with commissions.

The Answer: it looks bad. I just calculated the commissions, the total amount is 23935$

So at the end the total Profit is just 32'664 - 23'935 = 8'725. That's calculated with a commission of 5$ per 100k lot.

Now, let's assume the commission for a 100k lot is not 5$, but 1$. Then we have a complete different Picture!

In that case, the commissions are just 4'787$

So the total profit in this case would be 32'664 - 4'787$ = 27'887 which is a huge difference!!

This example Shows how critical the size of the commission is.
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Forex is a losers game.
  • #613
  • Mar 18, 2016 9:55am Mar 18, 2016 9:55am
Some fun reading for you all.

A large Japanese FX company Rakuten FX "accidentally" changed their sell price on USDJPY to 103 yesterday... LOL

Of course most of their customers where outraged but to save them from loosing all their clients they quickly apologized and returned any loses. And yes, of course did not honor any wins either.
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  • #614
  • Mar 18, 2016 9:58am Mar 18, 2016 9:58am
Quoting trader121
Now tested the whole month (March 2010). Maybe the best way is to brute-force Money out of the market, I don't know. Maximum Drawdown widened to 15'530. Total Profit is 32'664. The Big Question is now, how does it look with commissions. The Answer: it looks bad. I just calculated the commissions, the total amount is 23935$ So at the end the total Profit is just 32'664 - 23'935 = 8'725. That's calculated with a commission of 5$ per 100k lot. Now, let's assume the commission for a 100k lot is not 5$, but 1$. Then we have a complete different Picture!...
Ok Ok, we've all seen similar things thousands of times. Post results from 1 month forward testing perhaps?
  • #615
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:33am Mar 18, 2016 11:33am
Quoting trader121
Now tested the whole month (March 2010). Maybe the best way is to brute-force Money out of the market, I don't know. Maximum Drawdown widened to 15'530. Total Profit is 32'664. The Big Question is now, how does it look with commissions. The Answer: it looks bad. I just calculated the commissions, the total amount is 23935$ So at the end the total Profit is just 32'664 - 23'935 = 8'725. That's calculated with a commission of 5$ per 100k lot. Now, let's assume the commission for a 100k lot is not 5$, but 1$. Then we have a complete different Picture!...
Typical martingale. Stay away as much as you can, or you'll burn (a friendly advice)
  • #616
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:19pm Mar 18, 2016 12:19pm
Quoting mrhigurashi
{quote} Ok Ok, we've all seen similar things thousands of times. Post results from 1 month forward testing perhaps?
I just tested the next month. The strategy crashed spectacularly
Forex is a losers game.
  • #617
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:46pm Mar 18, 2016 7:46pm
I've tried to quit so many times but I'm like a wife with Stockholm syndrome. Everytime I try to divorce him, I eventually end back up with my abusive husband, Mr. Forex. My husband, Mr. Forex usually gives me a new strategy to try out as an apologize for the past abuse. I take him back and boom! More abuse (more losses) and the cycle continues. Mr. Forex gave me two black eyes last time but I keep telling myself that it's really not that bad. It's really my fault. I mean after all, he is bipolar. Up one moment, and down the next. I should be able to predict his moods and act accordingly but I'm so stupid. I need to learn to be a better wife to Mr. Forex.

Sincerely,

Hopeless battered wife (unsuccessful forex trader)....
  • #618
  • Mar 18, 2016 9:42pm Mar 18, 2016 9:42pm
Quoting trader121
what is in your opinion the best way to make Money in Forex?
My opinion FWIW:

You need robust concepts that are grounded in the 'hows' and 'whys' of price movement (see the links in this post), a conservative approach to MM, sufficient starting capital, a reputable STP/ECN br0ker, patience, nerve, self-belief and never-say-die dedication. And here are some pitfalls to avoid.

I recently watched this video posted by bloodpoodle. It's an excellent description of what the retail trader is up against.
  • #619
  • Edited 3:50am Mar 19, 2016 3:04am | Edited 3:50am
Quoting mrhigurashi
{quote} I get your argument. It has been the same. What i was asking was about you. Not the average person or statistics. Why did you begin to trade then stop or begin to trade just as a game/addiction? And do you mind sharing the research papers where you obtained the information? As your say your argument is not based on your experience alone but also by research and facts, i am keen to see these hard facts. If you decided to quite after your own loosing streak then why do you think you lost? Is it the fault of the broker or the system? And what...
I am happy to break it down for you:

I get your argument. It has been the same. What i was asking was about you. Not the average person or statistics.
==> I am your average individual, a statistic on the Gaussian curve of the forex trading probability of success.

Why did you begin to trade then stop or begin to trade just as a game/addiction?
==> As a game or addiction ? trading IS a game and an addiction

And do you mind sharing the research papers where you obtained the information? As your say your argument is not based on your experience alone but also by research and facts, i am keen to see these hard facts.
==> There are tons of info on the chances of winning in this game.

If you decided to quite after your own loosing streak then why do you think you lost? Is it the fault of the broker or the system? And what do you think the problem is? How where you put in this loosing (losing) position by either system or broker? Where is this evidence? And what does the evidence show as the main factors to support your argument?

==> Why is it that I am always asked to provide evidence but those who believe in the existence of Smurfs ==> SRFMs (spot retail forex millionaires) do not get the same scrutiny (:

Attached Image


The hard evidence:
Fact: "if you add up the customer funds of a large forex brokerage firm (like FXCM: 200,000 + accounts) at the beginning of any period and do the sum again at the end of the period the customer funds will be reduced by the amount of the transaction cost for that period +- some minor fluctuations."

I have checked this out with some stats from fxcm from 2014.
I have asked for more info to get a more accurate picture ==> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post8822294
Needless to say, this is not something that any friendly neighborhood forex bucket shop will want to make public.

What the evidence reveals:
What does it really prove? There is no doubt that a few players can make a few pips for a while.. Unfortunately, being profitable during any given period does not mean it's sustainable for any particular individual. From period to period you are not looking at the same losers and the same winners. The winners of today become the losers of tomorrow and ever fewer losers may become winners to replace the defunct winners that have joined the rank of the losers. An important requirement is that new traders have to constantly join the game. They are the fuel of the dwindling spiral. It will continue to spin downward as long as new players come in, thanks to the marketing efforts of the retail forex industry. Over time ALL trading accounts are siphoned into the broker's revenue and other trading paraphernalia (training, systems, books, etc ..)

This little clip goes right to the heart of the matter:

Inserted Video
  • #620
  • Mar 19, 2016 3:10am Mar 19, 2016 3:10am
Quoting numbrcrunchr
I've tried to quit so many times but I'm like a wife with Stockholm syndrome. Everytime I try to divorce him, I eventually end back up with my abusive husband, Mr. Forex. My husband, Mr. Forex usually gives me a new strategy to try out as an apologize for the past abuse. I take him back and boom! More abuse (more losses) and the cycle continues. Mr. Forex gave me two black eyes last time but I keep telling myself that it's really not that bad. It's really my fault. I mean after all, he is bipolar. Up one moment, and down the next. I should be able...
One of the best posts on ff thanks man
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