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Finding true Supply/Demand on your chart

  • #121
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:10am Mar 16, 2016 8:10am
USDCAD intraday short

Trend: Mixed
Confluences:
Rejection of Monthly QHi in progress
H4 QHi
Potential selling tail on the profile

Last trade for today before FOMC:
Shorted USDCAD after the CPI numbers.
Canada came out with very nice manufacturing sales figures, so probably causing the CAD strength.

Entry is at 1.3375
Stop is at 1.3410

Target is at 1.3244 - H4 QLo

Alternatively, target is time-based for 30 mind before FOMC should the position survive until then.

This is a drawdown period for me this week so its even more important to limit the number of trades per day and to stick to H4 timeframe for entries.
EDIT: Chart!
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  • #122
  • Mar 17, 2016 3:48am Mar 17, 2016 3:48am
Possibility of short audusd, should we get London initial balance extension to the downside. Price is consolidating following London open, but still needs confirmation of a turn, which happens in the next hour or so.

Reasons:
ADR exhausted
Hitting a conterminous Monthly supply line
Frankfurt fakeout - but needs to be confirmed through the profile following the end of Initial Balance.

Possible target: 0.7520 (D1 demand conterminous line) which is also another possible Zone of Interest (ZOI) for a long trade at some point.
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  • #123
  • Mar 17, 2016 6:53am Mar 17, 2016 6:53am
Quoting doggette
Possibility of short audusd, should we get London initial balance extension to the downside. Price is consolidating following London open, but still needs confirmation of a turn, which happens in the next hour or so. Reasons: ADR exhausted Hitting a conterminous Monthly supply line Frankfurt fakeout - but needs to be confirmed through the profile following the end of Initial Balance. Possible target: 0.7520 (D1 demand conterminous line) which is also another possible Zone of Interest (ZOI) for a long trade at some point. {image}
And its in. Stop slightly higher this time around 7658/60, since there is a supply around here. Target anywhere around 3-5x r/r

For the afternoon session, I am looking for extensions of initial balance back towards the New York value:
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  • #124
  • Mar 18, 2016 9:40am Mar 18, 2016 9:40am
Quoting doggette
{quote} And its in. Stop slightly higher this time around 7658/60, since there is a supply around here. Target anywhere around 3-5x r/r For the afternoon session, I am looking for extensions of initial balance back towards the New York value: {image}
Low initiative activity yesterday. Trying again.

Short AUDUSD, new info.

Market profile open below value.

Conterminous Monthly Supply demand line

Short no 1 - intraday
Entry 0.7620 | stop 0.7640 | Target between 0.7583 & 0.7545

Short no 2 - swing
Same entry 0.7620 | Stop 0.7680 | Target 0.7440

But will take no 2 off if it starts to stutter
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  • #125
  • Mar 18, 2016 9:44am Mar 18, 2016 9:44am
GBPUSD reaching a strong Daily supply at the extreme of swing.

There is currently a phase 3 on 30min chart, but that needs to be confirmed by initial balance extension in absence of strong bearish engulfs.

Waiting...
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  • #126
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:05am Mar 18, 2016 11:05am
Quoting doggette
GBPUSD reaching a strong Daily supply at the extreme of swing. There is currently a phase 3 on 30min chart, but that needs to be confirmed by initial balance extension in absence of strong bearish engulfs. Waiting... {image}
Cable invalidation of trading idea until Monday - price still inside strong Daily supply, but profile has extended to the upside and rejected Value.

No trade.
  • #127
  • Mar 21, 2016 4:26am Mar 21, 2016 4:26am
Quoting doggette
GBPUSD reaching a strong Daily supply at the extreme of swing. There is currently a phase 3 on 30min chart, but that needs to be confirmed by initial balance extension in absence of strong bearish engulfs. Waiting... {image}
Later on Friday price reversed as usual post NY cut. Waiting for the target now at least at 1.4323
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  • #128
  • Mar 21, 2016 4:36am Mar 21, 2016 4:36am
Quoting doggette
{quote} Low initiative activity yesterday. Trying again. Short AUDUSD, new info. Market profile open below value. Conterminous Monthly Supply demand line Short no 1 - intraday Entry 0.7620 | stop 0.7640 | Target between 0.7583 & 0.7545 Short no 2 - swing Same entry 0.7620 | Stop 0.7680 | Target 0.7440 But will take no 2 off if it starts to stutter {image}
Semi-swing one is now testing London Value area Low, which is a normal behaviour, no initial balance extensions either side yet. Means that institutions are not awake yet

For those who can't make out why I have 2 orders - I've split the full normal position into 2 trades - one to hold for 4-5 days and another one to hold for a day or two max.
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  • #129
  • Mar 21, 2016 4:43am Mar 21, 2016 4:43am
New idea for short S&P trade:

Strong supply slightly higher up that matches a Weekly conterminous line and today also comes within average daily range.

Should the price create a distribution, there's a short trade waiting. If that happens to match the time when initial balance gets extended downside, even better!

Price is now inside QHi on H4, D1, W1, MN1. Natual risk/reward definitely to the downside.
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  • #130
  • Mar 21, 2016 1:24pm Mar 21, 2016 1:24pm
Quoting doggette
{quote} Low initiative activity yesterday. Trying again. Short AUDUSD, new info. Market profile open below value. Conterminous Monthly Supply demand line Short no 1 - intraday Entry 0.7620 | stop 0.7640 | Target between 0.7583 & 0.7545 Short no 2 - swing Same entry 0.7620 | Stop 0.7680 | Target 0.7440 But will take no 2 off if it starts to stutter {image}
Decided to book the profits on these, I don't like the price action anymore so I took some cash there to have as a buffer for tomorrow.
  • #131
  • Mar 22, 2016 4:46am Mar 22, 2016 4:46am
Quoting doggette
{quote} Later on Friday price reversed as usual post NY cut. Waiting for the target now at least at 1.4323 {image}
Target of 1.4323 obtained
  • #132
  • Mar 23, 2016 5:24am Mar 23, 2016 5:24am
Gold setup for long intraday.

Prevailing trend: Up

Confluences:
H4 QLo
ADR exhaustion
Initiative activity to the upside during London

Looking for the current low to hold however line in the sand for the whole area is at 1224.50

I am long from 1233.40 from a retest of a lower timeframe Q Point.

ENTRY 1233.40
STOP 1230.55
TARGET 1245
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  • #133
  • Mar 23, 2016 7:29am Mar 23, 2016 7:29am
Quoting doggette
Gold setup for long intraday. Prevailing trend: Up Confluences: H4 QLo ADR exhaustion Initiative activity to the upside during London Looking for the current low to hold however line in the sand for the whole area is at 1224.50 I am long from 1233.40 from a retest of a lower timeframe Q Point. ENTRY 1233.40 STOP 1230.55 TARGET 1245 {image}
Aaaand too early in the day. Trading gold outside of comex hours is super tricky. I shall try again later
  • #134
  • Mar 23, 2016 9:32am Mar 23, 2016 9:32am
AUDUSD possibilty of a continuation trade long.

Trade requirements:
Bullish engulfing on M30 with profile initial balance extension.

Invalidation conditions:
IB extension downwards
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  • #135
  • Mar 23, 2016 10:53am Mar 23, 2016 10:53am
Quoting doggette
AUDUSD possibilty of a continuation trade long. Trade requirements: Bullish engulfing on M30 with profile initial balance extension. Invalidation conditions: IB extension downwards {image}
Setup invalidated, extension of initial balance downwards
  • #136
  • Mar 23, 2016 10:55am Mar 23, 2016 10:55am
Quoting doggette
{quote} Setup invalidated, extension of initial balance downwards
This is how market profile keeps you out of the trades that supply/demand would normally call for - today its clear that we have a bearish profile open (below value area) which is now supported even more with the initiative activity by extending the initial balance to the downside. There is no other way you can see this information without knowing where the fair value of the distribution from yesterday is located
  • #137
  • Mar 24, 2016 8:52am Mar 24, 2016 8:52am
S&P500 intraday setup

Prevailing trend: Long
Confluences:
D1 conterminous demand line
H4 QLo extreme
M30 strong demand
ADR exhaustion at M30 conterminous DEM line

Limit buy order at 2020, stop at 2015 or 2014, depending on your spread
For futures the same order is limit at 2011 stop at 2006.

Target should this one work out is time based since its Good Friday tomorrow.

This trade is more supply/demand setup than profile setup, but I am looking for initiative activity and also looking for the order to get picked up during initial balance so it has half hour to do it...

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  • #138
  • Mar 24, 2016 12:49pm Mar 24, 2016 12:49pm
Quoting doggette
S&P500 intraday setup Prevailing trend: Long Confluences: D1 conterminous demand line H4 QLo extreme M30 strong demand ADR exhaustion at M30 conterminous DEM line Limit buy order at 2020, stop at 2015 or 2014, depending on your spread For futures the same order is limit at 2011 stop at 2006. Target should this one work out is time based since its Good Friday tomorrow. This trade is more supply/demand setup than profile setup, but I am looking for initiative activity and also looking for the order to get picked up during initial balance so it has...
Since the trade didn't get picked up during initial balance the setup was invalid for that particular level. However I went in on another long at market because the price consolidated just above the area. As the price came within 2% of ADR exhaustion this was a setup as well. We now have initiative activity with the extension of IB upside.
Waiting...

Target: time based - trade will be closed by Wall Street end this evening.
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  • #139
  • Mar 24, 2016 2:09pm Mar 24, 2016 2:09pm
Not a bad days work for a relatively quiet NY session. Get some cash on canadian dollar, get a bit on sp and some on yen. Voila, 1.8k for the day.

http://www.marketstalkers.co.uk
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  • #140
  • Mar 25, 2016 11:31am Mar 25, 2016 11:31am
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