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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #441
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:21pm Mar 16, 2016 8:21pm
Quoting PA is King
Until the trend/pattern changes... {image}
Whats your thoghts about AUDJPY? I am short and continue rising
  • #442
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:26pm Mar 16, 2016 8:26pm
Quoting elsensei13
{quote} Whats your thoghts about AUDJPY? I am short and continue rising
I don't really follow that pair, but just looking at the 1hr chart...it's doing the same thing, Higher Highs and Higher Lows. That selloff down around 84.00 is Higher than the Low on March 10th that was at 83.70ish. So I'd be bullish on that pair as well. Not sure what your risk tolerance is...but you could try and see if it forms a lower high or double top around 86.30. If not, the trend will continue up. Or you can cut your losses now. You're in a tough spot, so really you just have to do whatever is right in your mind and accept the outcome. Best of luck to you.
  • #443
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:29pm Mar 16, 2016 8:29pm
Subscribed. Looking forward to really good information.
  • #444
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:35pm Mar 16, 2016 8:35pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} That's GREAT news!!! I read so many posts in other AUD threads about people going short or who have been short for weeks thinking some "Big Drop" is about to happen any minute. But week after week A/U just keeping going up. I shake my head at how many pips traders have lost or missed when all they had to do was follow the trend. So it's refreshing to read your post!!! Keep up the great work.

Thanks PA. Your posts have played a part in my decisions to buy dips. I've played AUD from both sides, but you are clearly correct that following trend and buying dips is the safest strategy. And I noticed that when many of us, myself included, were selling AUD as it approached previous top of sideways range prices around .7385, you expressed your sympathy at our losses. And there were many of us, TK was by no means alone, but there have been less comments since the break out of sideways range. That break above the side ways range is what really convinced me the game had changed. I agree with others that the AUD seems to be ignoring fundamentals, particularly in relation to the downturn in the mining industry, which is still resulting in daily job losses. A couple of days ago I heard from a friend of another 290 jobs being axed at a very big coal mine at Muswellbrook. It's not even in the news yet, but my source works there. Consequently when I go long, as I did yesterday, it is with little confidence, and my TP levels have proven to be too conservative. But other parts of the economy are gaining strength, and there is a (short term?) rise in iron ore and oil prices providing a lift. Last week when I was away hunting opals at Lighting Ridge with infrequent access to internet, I did much better when I let profits run. And wow! I'm cutting one hell of a beautiful black opal, which I found, today.
  • #445
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:36pm Mar 16, 2016 8:36pm
Really i shorted AJ looking for 40 pips till support around 83.95 and while rising i was adding contracts. Now i am loosing 30% of the account.

When i traded this pair i looked the weekly TF and this week was completaly bearish. I am clear that i made a mistake trading like this but sometimes we need to trust on the pivot or resistance reboun .

Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} It hurts me to say this because I am short AUD/JPY, but I am now of the view that we will hit 80 - 85 in a very few short weeks... There is nothing that will stop this bullish momentum and to be honest, I think we are moving into another period of accelerated economic growth.
  • #446
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:47pm Mar 16, 2016 8:47pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} It hurts me to say this because I am short AUD/JPY, but I am now of the view that we will hit 80 - 85 in a very few short weeks... There is nothing that will stop this bullish momentum and to be honest, I think we are moving into another period of accelerated economic growth.
Just my opinion, man but I'd bail out of those shorts. I've been buying AUD/USD all week... it's broken higher on the daily and out of a major, long-term downtrend. There's no saying how far she could run, but my first target is 0.7815 which is the 38.2% fib retracement from the weekly chart's last major down move starting June 30th, 2014!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #447
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:47pm Mar 16, 2016 8:47pm
Thanks for your help.

You say if price create a Higher low probably go to drop?

Now it looks like head and shoulder.


Quoting PA is King
{quote} I don't really follow that pair, but just looking at the 1hr chart...it's doing the same thing, Higher Highs and Higher Lows. That selloff down around 84.00 is Higher than the Low on March 10th that was at 83.70ish. So I'd be bullish on that pair as well. Not sure what your risk tolerance is...but you could try and see if it forms a lower high or double top around 86.30. If not, the trend will continue up. Or you can cut your losses now. You're in a tough spot, so really you just have to do whatever is right in your mind and accept the outcome....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_h4.png Size: 80 KB
  • #448
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:49pm Mar 16, 2016 8:49pm
Quoting elsensei13
Really i shorted AJ looking for 40 pips till support around 83.95 and while rising i was adding contracts. Now i am loosing 30% of the account. When i traded this pair i looked the weekly TF and this week was completaly bearish. I am clear that i made a mistake trading like this but sometimes we need to trust on the pivot or resistance reboun . {quote}
If you are trading the weekly timeframe, imho, then you need to make sure you're managing the trade properly(not trading too big of a lot size and giving lots of room for the trade to go against you). As of now, a/j has a nice 1hr pinbar with 15 minutes to candle close. Be patient. The next couple of hours should give you a better idea.
  • #449
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:50pm Mar 16, 2016 8:50pm
I don't want to beat anyone up here, but you guys need to start looking at the long-term trend.

Sure, AUD/USD has been in a downtrend for some time. But when the daily busted through the 200-day moving average early this month, it should have been a warning sign that this baby wants to scream higher.

I understand playing against the trend for retracements and bagging pips that way... it's not my thing, but I get it. But even if that's what you were doing (understanding you're swimming against the current), you need to be aware and very careful. Stop should have been tight.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #450
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:51pm Mar 16, 2016 8:51pm
Quoting elsensei13
Really i shorted AJ looking for 40 pips till support around 83.95 and while rising i was adding contracts. Now i am loosing 30% of the account. When i traded this pair i looked the weekly TF and this week was completaly bearish. I am clear that i made a mistake trading like this but sometimes we need to trust on the pivot or resistance reboun . {quote}

elsensie, I'm still learning and have a long way to go, and the only way i will ever get to where I hope to be is by following the most basic rule which i have read about and seen others discuss, which is to put no more than 2-5% of your account on a trade. Also, be careful of committing too much to trades that run in same direction and depend on same factors, such as AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, because if one drops the other almost certainly will too. Also, when you see compelling indications that you've chosen the wrong direction in your trade, get out and even consider taking the opposite position. All across this site, there are comments made by more experienced traders than me about the fact that they have previously blown one or more accounts, and the most common factor in these blown accounts is the violation of this rule. Good luck Bud, I hope you recover from this.
  • #451
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:53pm Mar 16, 2016 8:53pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Thanks PA. Your posts have played a part in my decisions to buy dips. I've played AUD from both sides, but you are clearly correct that following trend and buying dips is the safest strategy. And I noticed that when many of us, myself included, were selling AUD as it approached previous top of sideways range prices around .7385, you expressed your sympathy at our losses. And there were many of us, TK was by no means alone, but there have been less comments since the break out of sideways range. That break above the side ways range is what...
Great job on your trading bud! Glad to hear it...and nice to hear about the black opal. Sounds like you had a good time. Keep up the good work!
  • #452
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:55pm Mar 16, 2016 8:55pm
Quoting Geppy
I don't want to beat anyone up here, but you guys need to start looking at the long-term trend. Sure, AUD/USD has been in a downtrend for some time. But when the daily busted through the 200-day moving average early this month, it should have been a warning sign that this baby wants to scream higher. I understand playing against the trend for retracements and bagging pips that way... it's not my thing, but I get it. But even if that's what you were doing (understanding you're swimming against the current), you need to be aware and very careful....
Thanks for the comments Geppy! Many pips to you!
  • #453
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:57pm Mar 16, 2016 8:57pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} elsensie, I'm still learning and have a long way to go, and the only way i will ever get to where I hope to be is by following the most basic rule which i have read about and seen others discuss, which is to put no more than 2-5% of your account on a trade. Also, be careful of committing too much to trades that run in same direction and depend on same factors, such as AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, because if one drops the other almost certainly will too. Also, when you see compelling indications that you've chosen the wrong direction in your trade,...
The absolute number one BEST thing you can do for your account is to always trade with the underlying trend. And I don't mean the 5-minute timeframe trend.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #454
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:03pm Mar 16, 2016 9:03pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} The absolute number one BEST thing you can do for your account is to always trade with the underlying trend. And I don't mean the 5-minute timeframe trend.
I second this. And like black opal said, if you are going to trade a higher timeframe...you need to lower your risk on the trade.
  • #455
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:04pm Mar 16, 2016 9:04pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I second this. And like black opal said, if you are going to trade a higher timeframe...you need to lower your risk on the trade.
Absolutely. I always recommend trading the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes but taking queues from the daily for direction of trend.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #456
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:08pm Mar 16, 2016 9:08pm
ok, regarding the A/U...lets be realistic here, we just had a 200 pip rally nearly straight up(just a little consolidating area around .7550). In order to "buy the dips" we need a dip. We just got a nice 1hr bearish pinbar, it's possible we could get a pullback towards .7500 to form another Higher Low. Next couple of 1hr candles will give us a clue. We may even get a retest of the highs around London open unless they make a new high. Either way, trade smart!
  • #457
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:09pm Mar 16, 2016 9:09pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} elsensie, I'm still learning and have a long way to go, and the only way i will ever get to where I hope to be is by following the most basic rule which i have read about and seen others discuss, which is to put no more than 2-5% of your account on a trade. Also, be careful of committing too much to trades that run in same direction and depend on same factors, such as AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, because if one drops the other almost certainly will too. Also, when you see compelling indications that you've chosen the wrong direction in your trade,...
Thats correct, absolutly agree with you, but some times we turn greedy and optimistic with our strategy. But i appreciate your words and will take in mind next time a trade goes to wrong direction.
  • #458
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:10pm Mar 16, 2016 9:10pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Absolutely. I always recommend trading the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes but taking queues from the daily for direction of trend.
That's very similar to what I do. I need to check out your website tomorrow...maybe I can learn some new things.
  • #459
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:10pm Mar 16, 2016 9:10pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} It hurts me to say this because I am short AUD/JPY, but I am now of the view that we will hit 80 - 85 in a very few short weeks... There is nothing that will stop this bullish momentum and to be honest, I think we are moving into another period of accelerated economic growth.
Don't tell the central banks - they've had rates low for a while to try and create this without much luck!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #460
  • Mar 16, 2016 10:08pm Mar 16, 2016 10:08pm
Quoting PA is King
ok, regarding the A/U...lets be realistic here, we just had a 200 pip rally nearly straight up(just a little consolidating area around .7550). In order to "buy the dips" we need a dip. We just got a nice 1hr bearish pinbar, it's possible we could get a pullback towards .7500 to form another Higher Low. Next couple of 1hr candles will give us a clue. We may even get a retest of the highs around London open unless they make a new high. Either way, trade smart!
Not sure I agree here. Look at the rally that went the first week of this month. Basically went from 0.7100 to ~0.7425 with little pullback. Then we had multiple pullbacks and some higher highs but with much more volatility. That was a clue that the rally was losing steam (volatile topping out).

Then we had consolidation early this week with a great buying opportunity. In fact, the drop this week came right about to the 38.2% fib retracement of the rally from the beginning of this month.

I was buying; that was the opportunity.

Yes, the rally yesterday was aggressive. But it was also warranted both from a fundamental and technical perspective.

I'm not saying jump on this train at any cost, but don't sit around trying to convince yourself that its going to drop 100 pips to give you an ideal entry. Again, the ideal entry moment has come and gone.

Instead, find something in between. Find a time frame that gives a level to lean against and define risk, then take the plunge. If it doesn't work, try again. The trend is up for now, so it should work out for you.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
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