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Let's Trade Options

  • #12,361
  • Mar 14, 2016 6:51pm Mar 14, 2016 6:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ...filled a 1-lot, couldn't resist....
Zowie kapowie ... . Implosion to ensue ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,362
  • Mar 14, 2016 7:18pm Mar 14, 2016 7:18pm
Looks like gold is caving a bit here ... .

I started out with a March expiration GLD 100/103/111/114 iron condor that I filled for a .98 credit. When price whipped to the upside, I added a 115/118 short call vert for an additional .41 credit (in for a penny in for a pound), and then proceeded to strip off the 100/103 for a .09 debit and then sold a 104/107 short put vert for a .48 credit, which I then peeled off for a .14 debit when it was apparent that price was going to hang in at the high end of the range between 100 and 120. At that point, I had a 111/114 short call spread and a 115/118 short call spread.

After putzing with a number of setups to see what I could get for credit on the short put side, I ultimately settled on rolling out the 111/114 to the June 115/118 for a 1.11 debit and the 115/118 out to the same expiry, but without changing the strikes, for a .65 debit, essentially merging the two spreads into a single June 115/118 short call vert. I then sold a 112/115 short put vertical with the same number of units as the call side in the June expiry for a 1.64 credit. Didn't quite cover the cost of the roll, but very nearly ... .

I then sold a June 133/136 short call vert for a .68 credit to finance the improvement of the call side, rolling it from 115/118 to 117/120 for a .50 debit.

So now I've got a 117/120 and a 133/136 short call GLD vertical, along with a 112/115 short put vertical. Suddenly, the 117/120 and 133/136 short call verts are looking pretty good, but the 112/115 short put vert, eh, not so much ... .

Lot of shenanigans for a setup that was worth slightly less than a buck from the outset ... . But who woulda thunk that gold will rip that far that quickly to the upside ... . Now I'm just biding my time to leg in to a short put vert to match up units; $3 bucks or so down in GLD would be ideal ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,363
  • Mar 14, 2016 7:32pm Mar 14, 2016 7:32pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} GDX down to $19.42, may extend time or roll, i will see where we are on Thursday and my put is worth 48c Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) -NYSEArca 19.42 {image} 0.98(4.80%) 21:00 |After Hours: : 19.41 {image} 0.01 (0.05%) 21:01 - Nasdaq Real Time Price

rolled in 3rd Friday of March, xtra cost of 24c so total 44 c plus comms

working out well with GDX the extra week roll looks good for me
  • #12,364
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:01pm Mar 14, 2016 9:01pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Looks like gold is caving a bit here ... .... .
if tshtf like we know it could this Summer, we might see healthy safe haven flows into da yellow metal.... idk, though, I have other tshtf trades in mind...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,365
  • Mar 15, 2016 12:40am Mar 15, 2016 12:40am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Zowie kapowie ... . Implosion to ensue ... .
need a quick backslide
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-14_2239gwph.png Size: 74 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,366
  • Mar 15, 2016 4:56am Mar 15, 2016 4:56am
Super Duper Tuesday---if Trump does not take Ohio, he likely will never have enough delegates locked up and the Convention will be open to who knows wtf?....chaos....markets don't like chaos....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,367
  • Mar 15, 2016 10:03am Mar 15, 2016 10:03am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} if tshtf like we know it could this Summer, we might see healthy safe haven flows into da yellow metal.... idk, though, I have other tshtf trades in mind...
Got sucked into the darn thing, unfortunately, so I gotsta play ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,368
  • Mar 15, 2016 10:07am Mar 15, 2016 10:07am
Ripping this trade off from Dough, but going iron condor:

TSLA April 22nd 170/175/250/255, filled for a 1.12 credit.

The IVR is less than 70%, but the IV's still high ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,369
  • Mar 15, 2016 10:11am Mar 15, 2016 10:11am
Speaking of biopharma "implosions," VRX, off 42% on "lower forecasts," "possible event of default" ... .

The Soz has gone long via a short put credit spread; don't think I'm dipping my toe in that water ... . But an April 15th 32.5/35 short put vert will bring in nearly a 1.00 credit/contract ... . Mighty tempting.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,370
  • Mar 15, 2016 3:25pm Mar 15, 2016 3:25pm
Bought to Cover RIG April 15 9/14 short strangle

In for a .93 credit; out for .51, so a .42 ($42)/contract profit on an $11 underlying ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,371
  • Mar 15, 2016 3:26pm Mar 15, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Ripping this trade off from Dough, but going iron condor: TSLA April 22nd 170/175/250/255, filled for a 1.12 credit. The IVR is less than 70%, but the IV's still high ... .
Filled that bugger for 1.12 with no muss/no fuss.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,372
  • Mar 15, 2016 4:09pm Mar 15, 2016 4:09pm
Quoting The Fool
....an Apr $70/$55 bear put spread for $2.00.....?
re GWPH = $2 for a $15 bear put vert went to $3 the first day in, too bad I didn't play multiples.....will hang in to see if it can slide towards $70 in the coming week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,373
  • Mar 16, 2016 10:37am Mar 16, 2016 10:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} re GWPH = $2 for a $15 bear put vert went to $3 the first day in, too bad I didn't play multiples.....will hang in to see if it can slide towards $70 in the coming week....
spread's at $4.75 now as GWPH has dropped to <$72.00 - I have a $6 gtc on it.....maybe I should get greedy?....nah
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,374
  • Mar 16, 2016 11:17am Mar 16, 2016 11:17am
trying to fill more UVXY call flys - Jun $36/45/54 @ $0.40
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,375
  • Mar 16, 2016 11:23am Mar 16, 2016 11:23am
Quoting The Fool
Super Duper Tuesday---if Trump does not take Ohio, he likely will never have enough delegates locked up and the Convention will be open to who knows wtf?....chaos....markets don't like chaos....
expect a third party or independent bid to dilute the Trump supporters....the Republican effort may begin to look so disorganized, in any case, that HRC will be seen as a foregone conclusion.....maybe the bots don't even care?....they will keep trading against each other in a 200 pt range in the spoos....forever.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,376
  • Mar 16, 2016 11:51am Mar 16, 2016 11:51am
Quoting The Fool
I am just hanging on for the FOMC this week, may put something on early Wednesday for weekly gamble, won't have too much to say until after....seems like a long shot the Fed would hike now, but I suspect there is more of a chance than most of the fin press may surmise. We'll see......
meh....I have enough st traps set, I guess.....would like to see the Fed shoot another 25 bps....if they wait til June, on the eve of the Brexit referendum and a Summer full of Trump riots at home, it could be too late....if they see the oil rally continuing, US econ data firming, idk - I remember they said they thought they would do 4x hikes in 2016......2016 not getting any younger....anyway, as I've said before, the chance they will hike is better than the finpress talking heads have allowed.....I will go ahead and say it'll happen......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,377
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:42pm Mar 16, 2016 6:42pm
Mmm. Not a very enthusiastic post-FOMC up move; the day's range was 26 points, which is actually below the 14 Period Daily ATR (which is above 27 points). I rolled all my March SPY setups out to April 1st earlier in the week or sometime post-Draghi, but I think I'm going to hand sit a bit longer before going all crazy and adding the put wings that I peeled off back in, particularly because VIX is now at its 2016 low -- a penny shy of $15 -- not exactly premium selling territory. And there's only 18 DTE for those April Fool's 196/200 short call verts, so I might as well just ride it out, squeeze out the remaining extrinsic and then roll ... .

Never know ... . Hope springs eternal ... .

* * *

But VIX being at 15 presents long vol opportunities ... . It could cave more, but I've learned with VIX products to strike when "it's (not) hot." Wait too long, and the opportunity passes (and use a setup that has plenty of time to work out if you timing is wrong or you don't get the pop you need).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,378
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:14pm Mar 16, 2016 8:14pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
* * * But VIX being at 15 presents long vol opportunities ... . It could cave more, but I've learned with VIX products to strike when "it's (not) hot." Wait too long, and the opportunity passes (and use a setup that has plenty of time to work out if you timing is wrong or you don't get the pop you need).
give yourself time - I still think June could usher in good chances for big vol moves....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,379
  • Mar 17, 2016 3:49am Mar 17, 2016 3:49am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} , if iAnother possible breakdown below 15.64 on the VIX has set upt can then the 10 will be the much better scenario for a global equity fall


we got below 15.64 now looking for a drift lower to near 10 or even 11 may do it #, the VIX and S/P have the same % moves left to there maximum respected levels.

If we are to drift on the VIX to near 10 then we may see smaller moves higher in S/P and DOW
  • #12,380
  • Mar 17, 2016 4:03am Mar 17, 2016 4:03am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} the VIX trade is getting closer, could be another 4-6 weeks before it aligns then the real volatility kicks in until then equities may just drift higher Apple could see 107 before its pull back
APPLE may get have a extension to 109/10
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