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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #421
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:04pm Mar 16, 2016 6:04pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} That's GREAT news!!! I read so many posts in other AUD threads about people going short or who have been short for weeks thinking some "Big Drop" is about to happen any minute. But week after week A/U just keeping going up. I shake my head at how many pips traders have lost or missed when all they had to do was follow the trend. So it's refreshing to read your post!!! Keep up the great work.
you are talking about me, because i am the only person who is talking about "Big Drop"
only other person who says openly short is a real gentlemen - dab, trader with balls to disclose what his trades are and where his open positions stand.
you advise/teach here newbies how to trade, i consider myself a newbie and want to learn from you but please have a courtesy of at least making live calls with charts to show where you entered, where you placed your stop loss and where your tp is.
unfortunately i see no single live trade here, only hindsight with i told you so comment after the fact and usually right after big move happens, which is really not helpful for us newbies.
let's trade live with you and make some money
As Above, So Below
  • #422
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:20pm Mar 16, 2016 6:20pm
I've barely traded in the last few weeks because I was really not sure what to do, but I think I'm fairly confident there's a change in bias from dwonside to upside.

A part of me is very scared about the possibility of a resumption in commodity falls and what that will do to AUDUSD though - but the thing I am having to increasingly weigh that against is the continuing loosening of policy of ECB & BOJ.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #423
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:23pm Mar 16, 2016 6:23pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} you are talking about me, because i am the only person who is talking about "Big Drop" only other person who says openly short is a real gentlemen - dab, trader with balls to disclose what his trades are and where his open positions stand. you advise/teach here newbies how to trade, i consider myself a newbie and want to learn from you but please have a courtesy of at least making live calls with charts to show where you entered, where you placed your stop loss and where your tp is. unfortunately i see no single live trade here, only...
First things first, I was not talking about you. I was talking in general that I've read comments about the Aussie rally being temporary and that price should go back to .7100, .7000, or lower. I'm not calling anyone out.

Second thing, I don't post my trades, accounts, or give specific entry/exit points. Everyone has their own way of trading and I respect that. Feel free to enter& exit as you see fit. The purpose of my thread is to point traders in the right direction to trade for highest probability of a winning trade. I don't want to be a signal caller on here. The charts I post are meant to educate on Price Action, candle&chart patterns, support&resistance areas, etc so traders may learn what to look for on their own.

And lastly, if you study my posts you will see I often post where price is heading before it gets there. I posted a week early that price was heading to .7500. I post a day or two ahead of time a daily chart showing price was heading to .7580/7600. I don't need to post trades as I already posted price action for traders to trade as they see fit on their own terms.

Hopefully that helps you understand the purpose of my thread. Many pips to you!
  • #424
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:27pm Mar 16, 2016 6:27pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} you are talking about me, because i am the only person who is talking about "Big Drop" only other person who says openly short is a real gentlemen - dab, trader with balls to disclose what his trades are and where his open positions stand. you advise/teach here newbies how to trade, i consider myself a newbie and want to learn from you but please have a courtesy of at least making live calls with charts to show where you entered, where you placed your stop loss and where your tp is. unfortunately i see no single live trade here, only...
Curious why you consider yourself a newbie when you've been trading for 4+ years? We can all learn more but I see that as being different to learning the basics (which I think of as a newbie).
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #425
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:36pm Mar 16, 2016 6:36pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} First things first, I was not talking about you. I was talking in general that I've read comments about the Aussie rally being temporary and that price should go back to .7100, .7000, or lower. I'm not calling anyone out. Second thing, I don't post my trades, accounts, or give specific entry/exit points. Everyone has their own way of trading and I respect that. Feel free to enter& exit as you see fit. The purpose of my thread is to point traders in the right direction to trade for highest probability of a winning trade. I don't want to be...
well, i was pretty sure that big drop call was about me since i do follow all au threads, there are not many posts any have not come across resently anybody targeting 71. maybe mistaken.
the other thing i wanted to know if you stand behind and provide proof of your bias but if you say just commenting on price action and educating others, then i do understand your position. i should keep in mind this is not an interactive trading thread with real trades. so now we are clear
As Above, So Below
  • #426
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:41pm Mar 16, 2016 6:41pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Curious why you consider yourself a newbie when you've been trading for 4+ years? We can all learn more but I see that as being different to learning the basics (which I think of as a newbie).
not really 4+ years, dab.
first year opened an account with no knowledge, blew it and started reading, joined ff, second year started trading more active. actually my experience is about 2-3 yrs active trading and this is really nothing. i consider experience trader with at least 10 yrs active experience. i still consider myself too green in this business
As Above, So Below
  • #427
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:41pm Mar 16, 2016 6:41pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} well, i was pretty sure that big drop call was about me since i do follow all au threads, there are not many posts any have not come across resently anybody targeting 71. maybe mistaken. the other thing i wanted to know if you stand behind and provide proof of your bias but if you say just commenting on price action and educating others, then i do understand your position. i should keep in mind this is not an interactive trading thread with real trades. so now we are clear
You are correct, it's not an interactive trading thread with real trade. In fact, a lot of times I miss the trades because they happen while I'm sleeping(I'm on East coast US time...and a lot of trade setup during London session while I'm sleeping).

I am merely here to help increase the odds of a winning trade by pointing traders in the right direction to trade. I'm sure you know, there are all types of traders...scalpers, day traders(like me), swing traders, position traders. How you enter, what price you enter, how long you hold your trade, and when you exit is totally up to you, none of my business. But if I can help some day or swing traders improve their percentage of winning trades then I feel like I've helped.
  • #428
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:44pm Mar 16, 2016 6:44pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} You are correct, it's not an interactive trading thread with real trade. In fact, a lot of times I miss the trades because they happen while I'm sleeping(I'm on East coast US time...and a lot of trade setup during London session while I'm sleeping). I am merely here to help increase the odds of a winning trade by pointing traders in the right direction to trade. I'm sure you know, there are all types of traders...scalpers, day traders(like me), swing traders, position traders. How you enter, what price you enter, how long you hold your...
gotcha PAK,
soon some news coming up, lets see what is next.
As Above, So Below
  • #429
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:49pm Mar 16, 2016 6:49pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
I've barely traded in the last few weeks because I was really not sure what to do, but I think I'm fairly confident there's a change in bias from dwonside to upside. A part of me is very scared about the possibility of a resumption in commodity falls and what that will do to AUDUSD though - but the thing I am having to increasingly weigh that against is the continuing loosening of policy of ECB & BOJ. {image}
I agree with you, the downside bias has changed to the upside. The question really should be, what type of trader are you? Are you a position trader that holds trades for a long time? If so, then you should fully expect days when price drops and then days when it rallies back up. As long as price is making Higher Highs and Higher Lows...then you are trading in the right direction. But when that stops being true, it's probably time to take your profit.

If you are a day trader, you look to buy the dips. You'll only be wrong once. Think about it, as long as price is making Higher Highs and Higher Lows...you'll be making consistant winning trades. If you had been buying dips on Aussie for the past 3 weeks(for example) you'd have about 5-6 winning trades of 30-50pips easy....total of 200pips roughly(hypothetically). Now lets say the trend changed and you had a losing trade of 30-40pips...you're still up 160pips! And now you'd start looking for short trades. Again, the numbers were just examples...not set in stone. I hope all that makes sense.


Here are a couple charts of why I think you're right with your Upside bias.
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  • #430
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:49pm Mar 16, 2016 6:49pm
One more chart...
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH4 007.png Size: 148 KB
  • #431
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:57pm Mar 16, 2016 6:57pm
The market is fluid and always changing...so while you may have a bias on a certain pair, you have to remain objective and look for the possibilities of a reversal at any time. While my bias is still bullish on the Aussie, I also need to make sure we keep making Higher Highs and Higher Lows. As the chart attached shows...we need to follow through on today's buying to get another Higher High or this could turn into a Lower High. We shall see in time...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH1 019.png Size: 147 KB
  • #432
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:59pm Mar 16, 2016 6:59pm
Quoting PA is King
The market is fluid and always changing...so while you may have a bias on a certain pair, you have to remain objective and look for the possibilities of a reversal at any time. While my bias is still bullish on the Aussie, I also need to make sure we keep making Higher Highs and Higher Lows. As the chart attached shows...we need to follow through on today's buying to get another Higher High or this could turn into a Lower High. We shall see in time... {image}
Good points, man. I'm also bullish and buying dips.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #433
  • Mar 16, 2016 7:00pm Mar 16, 2016 7:00pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} gotcha PAK, soon some news coming up, lets see what is next.
I do have a dirty little secret...I don't win all my trades. In fact, I do suffer from self discipline issues at times. While I may be able to read the charts and price action pretty well...that doesn't always mean I can pull the trigger to enter or exit trades properly. And that's the hardest part about trading...having self discipline at times. I can't teach that, it's just something each trader has to develop themselves and can be really frustrating at times.
  • #434
  • Mar 16, 2016 7:39pm Mar 16, 2016 7:39pm
Looks like the Aussie's took a page out of the US data...less job created than expected, but yet the unemployment figure drops!

Looks as though it's the same story just a different day...no matter what bad AUD or China data comes out, A/U rallies anyway.
  • #435
  • Mar 16, 2016 7:40pm Mar 16, 2016 7:40pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I do have a dirty little secret...I don't win all my trades. In fact, I do suffer from self discipline issues at times. While I may be able to read the charts and price action pretty well...that doesn't always mean I can pull the trigger to enter or exit trades properly. And that's the hardest part about trading...having self discipline at times. I can't teach that, it's just something each trader has to develop themselves and can be really frustrating at times.
losing is inevitable part of trading, what important is how small our losers are compared to winners. absolutely agree with the discipline part, it is what most traders neglect. discipline is crucial ingredient of successful trading no matter how irrelevant may sound.
As Above, So Below
  • #436
  • Mar 16, 2016 7:47pm Mar 16, 2016 7:47pm
Quoting PA is King
Looks like the Aussie's took a page out of the US data...less job created than expected, but yet the unemployment figure drops! Looks as though it's the same story just a different day...no matter what bad AUD or China data comes out, A/U rallies anyway.
It hurts me to say this because I am short AUD/JPY, but I am now of the view that we will hit 80 - 85 in a very few short weeks... There is nothing that will stop this bullish momentum and to be honest, I think we are moving into another period of accelerated economic growth.
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #437
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:04pm Mar 16, 2016 8:04pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} It hurts me to say this because I am short AUD/JPY, but I am now of the view that we will hit 80 - 85 in a very few short weeks... There is nothing that will stop this bullish momentum and to be honest, I think we are moving into another period of accelerated economic growth.

I know how you feel, been there and done that many of times. Recognizing it is key, regroup, and form a new plan...I'm sure you'll get all those pips back.
  • #438
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:05pm Mar 16, 2016 8:05pm
.7618 for a high so far guys...Aussie took out Monday's highs, thus forming a Higher High! Uptrend still rolling along.

Nothing like a 200pip rally from Wednesday's lows in only 13hrs!!!
  • #439
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:11pm Mar 16, 2016 8:11pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} losing is inevitable part of trading, what important is how small our losers are compared to winners. absolutely agree with the discipline part, it is what most traders neglect. discipline is crucial ingredient of successful trading no matter how irrelevant may sound.
Tashkent, if you go to the Positions/Live Accounts section on FF, you'll see 59% of traders are Short Aussie...only 8 winners and 357 losers. That's kinda what I was eluding to earlier...a lot more people trying to short a strong uptrend, but look at how many are in losing trades. I feel bad and that's one of my main goals of this thread, to get people on the right side of a trade.
  • #440
  • Mar 16, 2016 8:17pm Mar 16, 2016 8:17pm
Until the trend/pattern changes...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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