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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #54,121
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:27am Mar 14, 2016 10:27am
Quoting fti
{quote} hahahaha i lend your money out at 7+credit risk loading. and i pay you 3% - fees, and you wondering where my foreign cap comes from? hahahahahahahahahaha the beauty is there millions like you. Some places have billions. i so jealous. regards
hmm, this part i don't get fully, correct me if im wrong, this is arbitrage?
  • #54,122
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:28am Mar 14, 2016 10:28am
Quoting Jairo
{quote} I may be wrong, but I think there is a strong correlation between crowd behaviour and MM thinking (the second are in the game to take money from the first and they do it well).
let me ask you a question.
lets say you need buy 1 billion hell notes.
where do you go get a price to buy?

what crowds? BIG boys cannot afford operate like small boys.
They ask 1 party work for them. then 1 party not knows where markets moving? ai ya.
only question left is how much the MM wants to move it la.


regards
  • #54,123
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:33am Mar 14, 2016 10:33am
Quoting Jairo
{quote} I may be wrong, but I think there is a strong correlation between crowd behaviour and MM thinking (the second are in the game to take money from the first and they do it well).
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ya, think deeper, there is some sort of secret there that the lion is not telling you.

attack the weak spot (the baby, old and sick sheeps), avoid the strong spot (strong, fast runner)

ya, create more illusion and decieve urself. only u can free yourself.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,124
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:34am Mar 14, 2016 10:34am
Quoting fti
{quote} let me ask you a question. lets say you need buy 1 billion hell notes. where do you go get a price to buy? regards
My English fails here, but I will take a chance (risking being ridiculous): in the fx market? (run to the hills!!! New lesson to be learned)
  • #54,125
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:37am Mar 14, 2016 10:37am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hmm, this part i don't get fully, correct me if im wrong, this is arbitrage?

ai ya.
Do you have bank acoount with bad credit rated?
ok you go ask how much intererst they will charge you to lend you 100 billion.
then you ask em how much interest they will pay you deposit 100 billion with then saving account.
thr you go china town buy calculator, made in chins.
then you calculate your loss per anusm

get it?

regards
  • #54,126
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:37am Mar 14, 2016 10:37am
Quoting Jairo
{quote} I may be wrong, but I think there is a strong correlation between crowd behaviour and MM thinking (the second are in the game to take money from the first and they do it well).
theres 4 groups though, commercials who are just there to use the market for trading and also taking the delivery, theres the professionals(hedge funds) who are in the know, mm who see orders coming from hedge funds, then the rest of the crowd who don't really know the game well. so dealers are in the middle of it all trying to match orders. commercials may or may not know what is going in, so their orderflow may not cause lasting trends, while hedge funds generally are in the know, so they are usually pricing in trends. dealers can see orders from commercials and hedge funds and know that hedge funds are the smart money, and commercials when they come in, provide orderflow to accumulate inventory in anticipation of other smart money catching wind. so when dealers step in to defend price, or they begin to do something unnatural and against the general market's direction and block price action, it usually means something is up, or their expectation is down, but somehow counter impulse from other events are pushing it higher. just think about how information travels from 1 group to the next and to all over, till it reaches the retail who usually lose money.

that is partially why sometimes those data driven red coloured news in ff calendar, a day or 2 before hand you might see some accumulation or distribution before hand, thats dealers catching wind of hedge fund's moves.
  • #54,127
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:41am Mar 14, 2016 10:41am
Quoting fti
{quote} ai ya. Do you have bank acoount with bad credit rated? ok you go ask how much intererst they will charge you to lend you 100 billion. then you ask em how much interest they will pay you deposit 100 billion with then saving account. thr you go china town buy calculator, made in chins. then you calculate your loss per anusm get it? regards
ah, ok, just like roll over tom when i open a long spot eurusd then short a eurusd another one, the outcome will always be me bleeding interest somehow.
  • #54,128
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:42am Mar 14, 2016 10:42am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} so when dealers step in to defend price, or they begin .....
eeer why do i want to step in and pee against the wind?
you think i am stupid?

infact every one dealer and brokers will be shooting ducks to benefit their own books.
who wants pee against the wind? oh have some technical peeps i forgot. some have magical levels.hahahahahahaha for some it not yet cross the line.

wait it cross the line.then when cross the line the price moved too fast. gets in when everyone profittaking.

regards
  • #54,129
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:50am Mar 14, 2016 10:50am
Quoting fti
{quote} eeer why do i want to step in and pee against the wind? you think i am stupid? infact every one dealer and brokers will be shooting ducks to benefit their own books. who wants pee against the wind? oh have some technical peeps i forgot. regards
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i dunno why. is just that after 8 yrs of content. i felt indignant for you. it must have already left you, and is now coming to haunt me
okok, but what can we do, just sail with the wind and watch lor.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,130
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:55am Mar 14, 2016 10:55am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} {image} i dunno why. is just that after 8 yrs of content. i felt indignant for you. it must have already left you, and is now coming to haunt me okok, but what can we do, just sail with the wind and watch lor.
ahhh now we talking.
Next question.
Is this wind trendy or just an infatuation.

For scalper, it npt bloddy matters.
Now the term traders need decide.
ARE YOU FOR REAL OR ARE YOU ONE NIGHT STAND??


sing song
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regards
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  • #54,131
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:58am Mar 14, 2016 10:58am
Quoting fti
{quote} eeer why do i want to step in and pee against the wind? you think i am stupid? regards
correct me if im wrong, because i keep seeing this price action happen, especially on stop zones where alot of players place stops, and this is exacerbated by the way some of the materials advising people to place stop at support and resistance areas, now dealers keep hunting stops there.

this is just something i noticed, dealers can see where the stops are, if they have not accumulated enough inventory to take profit into the stops, they may be forced into a opposite position instead. so instead they block price from going downwards, by taking some profits into somewhere near above that area, then rally to take out ducks to skew up even more again. then finally they just let the price drop to take profits into the stops and skew down, by then the market will be very thin, lots of profits to be made, while managing book risk, since the stop size can be known before hand since they can see the market depth.
  • #54,132
  • Mar 14, 2016 11:03am Mar 14, 2016 11:03am
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhh now we talking. Next question. Is this wind trendy or just an infatuation. For scalper, it npt bloddy matters. Now the term traders need decide. ARE YOU FOR REAL OR ARE YOU ONE NIGHT STAND?? regards
how would we know? best guess with tech & fund but but, best is to TEST it out with my foreign cap.
aiya, this the secret. make the bread and butter then risk FOREGIN CAP on spot trend ride or extend into long tenure via paying for wasting assets using FOREIGN CAP. this the best, i can close my eyes and wait for windfall. worst case = lost opportunity cost. best case = windfall.

cookie, dont need make it so complicated. just do strangles with ur foreign cap and wait for windfall. problem is, lots of blardy sharks out there will kill u with the volatility spread.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,133
  • Mar 14, 2016 11:09am Mar 14, 2016 11:09am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} how would we know? best guess with tech & fund but but, best is to TEST it out with my foreign cap. aiya, this the secret. make the bread and butter then risk FOREGIN CAP on spot trend ride or extend into long tenure via paying for wasting assets using FOREIGN CAP. this the best, i can close my eyes and wait for windfall. worst case = lost opportunity cost. best case = windfall. cookie, dont need make it so complicated. just do strangles with ur foreign cap and wait for windfall.

yep, was thinking of stangle for such windfall, butterfly to pay for bills. a quite famous trader, anthony saliba did this, saw it in the book market wizards. kinda learning how to manage butterflies now.
  • #54,134
  • Mar 14, 2016 11:18am Mar 14, 2016 11:18am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} yep, was thinking of stangle for such windfall, butterfly to pay for bills. a quite famous trader, anthony saliba did this, saw it in the book market wizards. kinda learning how to manage butterflies now.

sell strangles?
Remember nic leeson, thats how stangles will die.
remember soc gen?
the regular anchovies that gets net i tell also you never hear of em.
why is your minds so rigid?

regards
  • #54,135
  • Mar 14, 2016 11:20am Mar 14, 2016 11:20am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} yep, was thinking of stangle for such windfall, butterfly to pay for bills. a quite famous trader, anthony saliba did this, saw it in the book market wizards. kinda learning how to manage butterflies now.

nono, spot trading to create foreign cap to buy strangle. normal working to pay for bills. selling the butterfly is like selling insurance, u need learn how price it correctly.

buying insurance is easier, mostly overpay but is with foreign cap for windfall. so, i guess we could be a bit more lax if the price is within expectation range
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,136
  • Edited 11:43am Mar 14, 2016 11:25am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting fti
{quote} sell strangles? Remember nic leeson, thats how stangles will die. remember soc gen? why is your minds so rigid? regards
not selling strangle, just buying strangle, in conjunction with buying butterfly since buying strangle is long vols and long theta, buying butterfly would be selling theta and selling vols, just trying to neutralise the vols and theta decay from buying strangles.

i don't really judge if he is a small fry or not, but his method is very risk adjusted and frankly quite interesting to be incorporated into a 3 tiered book of interest asset, butterfly and spot trading. in that he trades butterflies mostly, while thinking a big move might be coming, he build a position of long puts and long calls.
  • #54,137
  • Edited 11:43am Mar 14, 2016 11:30am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} nono, spot trading to create foreign cap to buy strangle. normal working to pay for bills. selling the butterfly is like selling insurance, u need learn how price it correctly. buying insurance is easier, mostly overpay but is with foreign cap for windfall. so, i guess we could be a bit more lax if the price is within expectation range
ah ok.

yea thats the part im learning about butterfly as well as how to roll and adjust the butterfly correctly.

actually, the thing is, sometimes market don't want to move, but you need make money somehow if you full time trading, butterfly is a good way to go too, since you will not have any outlier move killing you, the rest is just to manage how to roll positions well, and you profit while waiting for market to move.
  • #54,138
  • Edited 3:45pm Mar 14, 2016 11:35am | Edited 3:45pm
,
  • #54,139
  • Mar 14, 2016 11:57am Mar 14, 2016 11:57am
Day 2 for me. finished flat.​




Was without bias to start, opened scout long but I think I should have waited for more information. hung onto scout too long bias should have been down.

Flip and attack went well but I chickened out on retrace and attack opportunity. Think to myself "Why wait for retace if going to be chicken?"

Squared because was too tired to continue, Daylight Savings time screwing me out of extra hour of sleep until end of march, London open 1 AM local time now.

Was looking for impulse breakout with last entry and it never came.

Tiring day for little pips but overall I feel pretty good about experience
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  • #54,140
  • Edited 3:47pm Mar 14, 2016 12:07pm | Edited 3:47pm
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