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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #54,101
  • Mar 13, 2016 8:16am Mar 13, 2016 8:16am
Quoting fti
{quote} good. if this may be of some value to you. Its important that you divide your portfolio like pro asset managers. a potion of it in fixed income securities and a portion in risk instruments. best is your fixed income securitties portion can take care of cost of living for family, so would give you peace of mind to venture. Your venture risk managing should provide good ROI , and that you should be able withdrawal from to enhance/rebalance your fixed income securities portfolio from time to time, as you had done, while you was building...

I completely agree especially with first part. It is paramount for my mindset that I not have to be super trader 100% ROI anytime. Would be terrifying to open broker everyday in that situation. Probably the best financial decision i ever made was to arrange life so that we could live off of "milk money"

On the point about rescues has been tough for me. Through the years of the thread it has been misapplied rescues that have ruined accounts. I cant be rigid and it is important to me to learn the skill but it is hard for me to see a situation where you need to send in 4th rescue and you arent trading against the trend or impulse. Market can do anything but the concept of the leveraged flip appeals to my trader mind, especially after 3rd failed attempt.

On risk reward and ROI. I like the concept of big returns (who doesnt?) But if all I ever am is mediocre trader I would like to think that by applying your trading style I could average the 4-5 percent a month I would need to live happy life and get to be home with family. Maybe never buy yacht tho Or maybe ill post my recap to you guys everyday showing lost after loss and never put more than initial investment in If that happens will also be good, its good to put some dreams to rest.

On windfall trading. I believe it was end of 2009 beginning 2010 you double account in month. I wish I could have been in that thread to learn what made you so comfortable with the risk that must have accompanied that, or what you saw in market/on charts. I have learned from this thread that the secret is that there is no secret, but would have been interesting regardless.
  • #54,102
  • Edited 9:37am Mar 13, 2016 9:20am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting CookieMonsta
Quoting NoDak64
<p>{quote} true, and that is why it takes quite a while to train and gain proficiency right? you might be trying to trade too fast though, just slow down, let the market show u the distribution/accumulation after a strong move then go in, i used to make mistakes like this too, till i slowed down and waited for the topping/bottoming out formation and plan my trades from there. thats when i saw my results started improving, and i saw i was attacking more often, and sometimes you will realize that the attack skew can be variated
...
this fits along with what FTI said about reaccessing positions when not "rowing" and goes along with patience. I have printed and put on wall by trading computer the chart from my impatient day. hopefully will remind me


I also can't believe how buggy the posting is on this site. today every time i hit return brings me to top of post.
  • #54,103
  • Mar 13, 2016 10:04am Mar 13, 2016 10:04am
Do You Have The Balls To Survive The End of The World?


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regards
  • #54,104
  • Edited 10:58am Mar 13, 2016 10:23am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting NoDak64
{quote} I completely agree especially with first part. It is paramount for my mindset that I not have to be super trader 100% ROI anytime. Would be terrifying to open broker everyday in that situation. Probably the best financial decision i ever made was to arrange life so that we could live off of "milk money" On the point about rescues has been tough for me. Through the years of the thread it has been misapplied rescues that have ruined accounts. I cant be rigid and it is important to me to learn the skill but it is hard for me to see a situation...
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master the skillssets then the mindset required.
You can live forever, financially secured , if you gets to live forever.
Good fortune.

regards
  • #54,105
  • Edited 12:39pm Mar 13, 2016 11:59am | Edited 12:39pm
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:nerd:fully programmed ???

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regards
  • #54,106
  • Mar 14, 2016 7:37am Mar 14, 2016 7:37am
Quoting fti
Do You Have The Balls To Survive The End of The World? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4sjXFF-njE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IQczxxH3ts regards
so you also know abt pokemon i watch it long time ago. the song didnt make any sense back then. is a winning mindset.


here something nice.

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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,107
  • Mar 14, 2016 8:10am Mar 14, 2016 8:10am
Quoting NoDak64
{quote}{quote} this fits along with what FTI said about reaccessing positions when not "rowing" and goes along with patience. I have printed and put on wall by trading computer the chart from my impatient day. hopefully will remind me I also can't believe how buggy the posting is on this site. today every time i hit return brings me to top of post.
yep, a good scout deployment will really help in the efficiency in which you manage trades in the long run. if you are able to feel the market without scouts, it can save you alot of time that may otherwise be spent on rescue-ing, instead, that time is spent on attacking and it really helps your book in the long run since you are not exposed to alot of risk while you are riding profits most of the time. your book then starts to look like its having huge swings to the upside, while the down side, might be just a little dip here and there.
  • #54,108
  • Mar 14, 2016 8:59am Mar 14, 2016 8:59am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} yep, a good scout deployment will really help in the efficiency in which you manage trades in the long run. if you are able to feel the market without scouts, it can save you alot of time that may otherwise be spent on rescue-ing, instead, that time is spent on attacking and it really helps your book in the long run since you are not exposed to alot of risk while you are riding profits most of the time. your book then starts to look like its having huge swings to the upside, while the down side, might be just a little dip here and there....
there is only 1 type traders who can feel the markets without scouts.

regards
  • #54,109
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:02am Mar 14, 2016 9:02am
MM?!?
  • #54,110
  • Edited 9:41am Mar 14, 2016 9:17am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting Jairo
MM?!?

yeh, they make it you feel.
100.30/35
mine 10
70.30/35
sorry you otto stoped out.
next

regards

20160304:12:30 100.30/35
20160304:12:31 mine 10
20160304:17:30 70.30/35
sorry you otto stoped out.
next
how now
100.30/35 why?
anything friend?
always at your service.


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  • #54,111
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:25am Mar 14, 2016 9:25am
Thank you fti for your reply!! Can we train ourselves to think like an MM (from the retail side, I mean)? Sorry if the question has already been answered in the thread. I don't want to disturb in any way. Thanks again.
  • #54,112
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:39am Mar 14, 2016 9:39am
Quoting fti
{quote} there is only 1 type traders who can feel the markets without scouts. regards
well, no crystal balls here, and no all ins.
sometimes, can just feel like the calm before the storm, sometimes just feel like its about to kick in, this very unsure feeling but its sure something big is coming, this way, can feel impact coming and rather not want to go in just stay aside and let price manifest and show momentum before going in, so im not referring to all in, but rather to stay out of some not so good terrains, and reassess. so might need to start figuring what dealer thinking, then find pa which supports evidence for move, sometimes it might come from the ff calendar instead. no smoke without fire right? though sometimes is fake smoke that looks like real smoke and got suckered in.
  • #54,113
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:45am Mar 14, 2016 9:45am
Quoting Jairo
Thank you fti for your reply!! Can we train ourselves to think like an MM (from the retail side, I mean)? Sorry if the question has already been answered in the thread. I don't want to disturb in any way. Thanks again.
hi Jairo. i know you, from me reading this thread, you were here long long time ago. this thread started 2007. it has been about 8 years long. i see questions like this, i just feel angry. i dont know why.

your questions can come in the following forms:

1. Can we train ourselves to think like a CEO ?
2. Can we train ourselves to think like a monk?
3. Can we train ourselves to think like a women?
4. Can we train ourselves to think like a great strategist?
5. Can we train ourselves to think like a "fill in the blank yourselves"

what do u think the answers to these questions are? if these are offensive, i give no apologies. is a fact that some takes a while to get it, some take a longer time, some never will. if you dont accept what it is as the truth and clear your minds of ur self imposed - there is some secret, you will belong to the third category.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,114
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:47am Mar 14, 2016 9:47am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} well, no crystal balls here, and no all ins. sometimes, can just feel like the calm before the storm, sometimes just feel like its about to kick in, this very unsure feeling but its sure something big is coming, this way, can feel impact coming and rather not want to go in just stay aside and let price manifest and show momentum before going in, so im not referring to all in, but rather to stay out of some not so good terrains, and reassess. so might need to start figuring what dealer thinking, then find pa which supports evidence for move,...
to feel if calm or storm or whatever. need be in the boat.
When every one is carving the lamb, take your piece and run.
if you come back for second helping.
bring bigger bucket.
if you help the lamb, we will scoup you too.

regards
  • #54,115
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:53am Mar 14, 2016 9:53am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi Jairo. i know you, from me reading this thread, you were here long long time ago. this thread started 2007. it has been about 8 years long. i see questions like this, i just feel angry. i dont know why. your questions can come in the following forms: 1. Can we train ourselves to think like a CEO ? 2. Can we train ourselves to think like a monk? 3. Can we train ourselves to think like a women? 4. Can we train ourselves to think like a great strategist? 5. Can we train ourselves to think like a "fill in the blank yourselves" what do u think...
I believe the general answer is "Yes", though for the MM part it is very hard. I don't know if I am being naive, but I think we can always improve, even in the extremely hard game "Thinking like an MM". I am no authority at all. I am here to learn. Have taken very hard lessons in the past. Learning never ends. Thanks for the attention. Don't want to divert. This is fti thread.
  • #54,116
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:53am Mar 14, 2016 9:53am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi Jairo. i know you, from me reading this thread, you were here long long time ago. this thread started 2007. it has been about 8 years long. i see questions like this, i just feel angry. i dont know why. your questions can come in the following forms: 1. Can we train ourselves to think like a CEO ? 2. Can we train ourselves to think like a monk? 3. Can we train ourselves to think like a women? 4. Can we train ourselves to think like a great strategist? 5. Can we train ourselves to think like a "fill in the blank yourselves" what do u think...
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  • #54,117
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:57am Mar 14, 2016 9:57am
Quoting Jairo
{quote} I believe the general answer is "Yes", though for the MM part it is very hard. I don't know if I am being naive, but I think we can always improve, even in the extremely hard game "Thinking like an MM". I am no authority at all. I am here to learn. Have taken very hard lessons in the past. Learning never ends. Thanks for the attention. Don't want to divert. This is fti thread.

what you have in front of you is the most precious skills you can get in the trading world FOC. why do you want to even bother to think like an MM?
if you master AOW, u will master how everyone else think and how to counter and whack the blood out of them. is just a matter of understanding the structure, the players and the tools - which are all already given in this thread.

the screws, the thumb tacks, the hammer, the plank. is all there. even the operating manual. anyone bother to read and then construct the damn thing yet?

i tell you. is witchcraft. i have use it on my pot and i tell u, it works.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,118
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:09am Mar 14, 2016 10:09am
Quoting fti
{quote} to feel if calm or storm or whatever. need be in the boat. When every one is carving the lamb, take your piece and run. if you come back for second helping. bring bigger bucket. if you help the lamb, we will scoup you too. regards
noted.

on a side note, i keep having this thought inside my mind, that is, is there a way to strategically enter the markets without risk to scout, while collecting premium?
then when the initial impulse swing comes in, we convert the position into spot only, and use the foreign cap from the premium and scout to deploy more troops to attack, all done using foreign cap, so principal capital is always safe, by nature of managing butterflies. it might come from embedding spot inside butterflies, then when the impulse manifest, just collect the premium and close the components in the butterfly and attack with the rest of the army.
this is just a thought i have been thinking of, since i read your post on that, when you are in the bank is that, the trainee dealer's exposure is at risk capital collected from premium which the bank collects from buying/selling/spreading options.

so this would make for a nice way to trade longer swings, while being very much risk adjusted. and let the scout accumulate a nice foreign cap first before deploying the entire army. is like building a foundation to spring board into high level skews, slow and strategic, until the big swing comes in, scout's price lags market alot, and we can afford to go for aggressive style of trading, because we build a strong foundation first.
  • #54,119
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:17am Mar 14, 2016 10:17am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} noted. on a side note, i keep having this thought inside my mind, that is, is there a way to strategically enter the markets without risk to scout, while collecting premium? then when the initial impulse swing comes in, we convert the position into spot only, and use the foreign cap from the premium and scout to deploy more troops to attack, all done using foreign cap, so principal capital is always safe, by nature of managing butterflies. it might come from embedding spot inside butterflies, then when the impulse manifest, just collect...
hahahaha i lend your money out at 7+credit risk loading.
and i pay you 3% - fees,
and you wondering where my foreign cap comes from?
hahahahahahahahahaha the beauty is there millions like you.

Some places have billions. i so jealous.

regards
  • #54,120
  • Mar 14, 2016 10:22am Mar 14, 2016 10:22am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} what you have in front of you is the most precious skills you can get in the trading world FOC. why do you want to even bother to think like an MM? if you master AOW, u will master how everyone else think and how to counter and whack the blood out of them. is just a matter of understanding the structure, the players and the tools - which are all already given in this thread. the screws, the thumb tacks, the hammer, the plank. is all there. even the operating manual. anyone bother to read and then construct the damn thing yet? i tell you....
I may be wrong, but I think there is a strong correlation between crowd behaviour and MM thinking (the second are in the game to take money from the first and they do it well).
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